HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TODAY; TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES… Rain and thunderstorms will be the norm around south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Wednesday with a chance of potentially severe storms. Tornadoes will be possible closer to the coast, gusty winds and hail will be possible areawide, and flash flooding will quickly become a concern if/when storms train over the same areas. Most spots will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the next 36 hours. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings throughout the day since all modes of severe weather will be possible. If we have any tornado warnings, we will provide uninterrupted live coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Rain will linger into Thursday before clearing out midday. Drier, slightly cooler conditions are ahead for Thursday evening, Friday, and the weekend. Unfortunately rain looks to return in the early part of next week. Let’s look at all of the details.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ALL OF LOCAL AREA… All locales in south Alabama and northwest Florida are now involved in the Level 2 (out of 5), slight severe weather risk valid today into tonight. This means that scattered instances of strong to severe storms will be possible. Tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding are all concerns. This risk is in place south of a line from Butler to Camden to Fort Deposit to Eufaula. Some of the communities involved in this include: Mobile, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Fairhope, Daphne, Orange Beach, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Monroeville, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, Mexia, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Range, Lenox, Owassa, Brooklyn, Johnsonville, Forest Home, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Pleasant Home, Straughn, Rose Hill, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Gilbertown, Millry, Chatom, Wilmer, Prichard, Citronelle, Theodore, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Foley, Loxley, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Walnut Hill, Molino, Myrtle Grove, Perdido Key, Gulf Breeze, Milton, Pace, Chumuckla, Jay, Berrydale, Navarre, Bagdad, Crestview, Baker, Milligan, Holt, Harold, Laurel Hill, Niceville, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Dothan, Geneva, Abbeville, and Samson.
TIMING – SEVERE STORMS LIKELY IN EVENING… While heavy rain will be possible intermittently throughout the day on this Wednesday into tonight, the core risk of strong to severe storms is likely to happen between 10AM and 6PM. That is the eight hour window when severe storms will be MOST likely to happen across our region. The storm mode today will likely be “messy” with numerous areas of rain with storms mixed in.
TORNADO RISK GREATEST NEAR COAST… There will be at least some risk of a tornado or two across our entire region, but clearly the greatest risk will happen across coastal counties where the airmass will be potentially a bit more unstable. This means if you are in any part of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, or Walton counties, your tornado risk will be a just a bit higher compared to communities farther inland.
DAMAGING WINDS & HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE… Gusty winds that could down a few trees will also be possible across the region. Unlike the last few severe weather events we have had since January, today will be a day when we may have large (up to golfball size, in the most extreme cases) hail. We encourage everyone to please take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously and get sheltered if one is required for your specific location.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING LIKELY… There is some chance that heavy rain and flash flooding could become the lead hazard later today. The entirety of our local area remains under a Flash Flood Watch, as 3 to 5 inches of rain is in the forecast today into Thursday morning. This rainfall will happen on already saturated soil that will quickly lead to flash flooding. We lose WAY too many people each year across America due to folks attempting to drive over water-covered roadways. The phrase is, “Turn around, don’t drown.” That will almost certainly apply at times today into tonight.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL LOCAL AREAS… The National Weather Service has placed ALL of our local area in a Flash Flood Watch valid until late tonight. This Flash Flood Watch is in effect as we could have 3 to 5 inches of rain in total today into tonight with isolated higher amounts being possible. From NWS Mobile: “Soils remain saturated in the Flash Flood Watch area. Heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time from storms that are likely to move repeatedly over the same areas sets up an increased favorability for onset of flooding of urban and low-lying areas. Additional river rises may also worsen lingering ongoing river flooding [across west Alabama].”
HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS TODAY INTO TONIGHT… We had a massive cellular and data outage on Monday across parts of Escambia (AL) and Conecuh counties. This underscores the need to have redundancy in your severe weather plan. Please have more than one way to get urgent weather warnings, both for this potential event today and as we go into the heart of severe weather season later this month and into April. NOAA Weather Radio is a great backup to cell phone apps and vice versa. Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) are also critical during severe weather events. You can visit your notification settings on your smartphone to make sure you have WEAs turned ON. These are sometimes labeled as “emergency alerts.”
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
RAIN & STORMS THURSDAY MORNING… Rain will continue overnight into Thursday morning. There could be a few thunderstorms around as late as Thursday morning, but the severe weather risk should be over by late tonight at the latest. Model guidance has been consistent in suggesting rain will taper off midday on Thursday from west to east.
NICE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY… Sunshine finally returns on Friday into Saturday and Sunday! High temperatures each day will be in the mid- to upper-60s with morning lows around 40 degrees. Unfortunately, it appears this dry streak will be short-lived as more rain is in the forecast as we go into Monday of the upcoming week.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the graphics and details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. I’ll have plenty of updates thorughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Wednesday!