3:16PM 4/6/2020 – RZW Exec

RZW EXEC: FEW STORMS TUESDAY; MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday evening! The Storm Prediction Center has added a low-end severe weather risk zone valid for Tuesday, April 7 (tomorrow) for much of our local area. The concern on Tuesday will be storms that ramp up and produce potentially gusty winds and hail. The tornado risk remains very low. I am growing more concerned about the potential for a severe weather risk on Sunday, however. Please check back with me later this week for the very latest.

Overview: A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, most likely in the daytime hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

Threat Level: Level 1 (out of 5) risk, meaning only isolated instances of severe storms will be possible.

Where: Inland areas of south Alabama are involved in the Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone, including all parts of Covington, Escambia (AL), Butler, Crenshaw, Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, and Washington counties. Parts of our local coastal counties are involved in the lower-end Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk as well. This includes Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Mobile, and Baldwin counties.

When: 1PM to 10PM Tuesday, April 7. The core risk will be from 4PM to 8PM.

Risks: This is a low-end risk. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph in the stronger storms. Large hail will also be possible in the stronger storms. The overall tornado risk remains very low.

I will begin publishing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!

Below is the public, long form post that will debut this evening.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY; LEVEL 1 RISK INTRODUCED… The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Tuesday (tomorrow). There is a chance that some of the thunderstorms that flare up on Tuesday could be on the strong side, with gusty winds and hail being the main concerns. The overall risk for a tornado for any given spot is VERY, very low on Tuesday if not zero in most spots. For vast majority of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida, this will be a situation where we have rain around at times. Thunderstorms that develop will potentially produce gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning. We are entering a few days of unsettled weather with rain chances being elevated each day. I am also growing concerned for perhaps a far more potent round of severe thunderstorms setting up for the Sunday timeframe (Easter). There is a growing chance that could be a significant round of severe storms. Let’s look at your Monday evening forecast details…

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK LOCALLY… Nearly all areas north of Interstate 10 in our local area are included in this low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. This means that basically all areas outside of the immediate coastal areas are included. Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Citronelle, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Coffeeville, Whatley, Monroeville, Perdue Hill, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Frisco City, Excel, Uriah, Atmore, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, East Brewton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Gantt, Straughn, Pleasant Home, Century, Walnut Hill, Molino, Bay Minette, Stockton, Perdido, Niceville, Crestview, and Baker are all included in the low-end risk zone locally.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST… Several locations in central and southeast Alabama are also included: Demopolis, Livingston, Butler, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Luverne, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Geneva, Dothan, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Wetumpka, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Marion, and Eutaw are involved in the Level 1 risk zone.

WHAT TO EXPECT… Tuesday will be a day when some spots have rain and maybe a few thunderstorms. The odds of any particular spot having a severe thunderstorm are LOW, but not entirely zero. If any of the storms ramp up to severe levels, damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of a quarter would be the main concerns. The overall tornado risk is very low.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY… The main risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. 1PM to 10PM is the nine hour window when storms will be most likely to happen locally with the core risk being from 4PM to 8PM. Keep in mind that many areas on Tuesday probably WON’T have any severe weather issues as this remains a low-end risk situation. Regardless, we can’t rule out a few strong storms. Be ready for possible warnings! The good news is I am not expecting storms to be a problem in the overnight hours when most people are sleeping.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND… While confidence remains low this evening, I am growing increasingly concerned about a separate, distinct severe weather potential that could be setting up for the Sunday timeframe. Parameters are increasingly concerning, but unfortunately it is far too early to know whether a) trends will continue to warrant concern and b) the specific risks for our area. April is our primary severe weather and tornado month across the Deep South, so this certainly should not be a surprise to anyone. This is something to monitor over the next few days. Plenty of time for things to change between now and then. Stay tuned.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday with the very latest. See you then!

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