RZW EXEC: MORE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! I know everyone must be fatigued of all the severe weather issues we have been having as of late, especially the folks across our region who endured significant damage due to the tornadoes and damaging winds on Sunday. Unfortunately, we have another potentially significant severe weather risk setting up for this Thursday, April 23, 2020. Unlike the last two severe weather events, this potential is setting up in the morning into the early afternoon locally as opposed to the late evening hours. Below is the public post I’ll be pushing out at 7AM via all of our platforms. As always, please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs. Have a great Tuesday!
MORE TORNADOES & SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY; LEVEL 3 RISK INTRODUCED… Unfortunately, we have another potentially potent round of severe weather setting up for this Thursday (April 23) across Alabama and northwest Florida as our “wave train” of severe storm systems continues. The Storm Prediction Center has ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida involved in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. This means that numerous severe storms are expected. Further outlook upgrades may be required over the next 48 hours. Tornadoes, damaging winds, flash flooding, and large hail will be the concerns, meaning all modes of severe weather will be possible. There is a chance, based on some model scenarios, that strong (EF2+) tornadoes may be possible locally. I don’t say any of this to scare anyone but I do need everyone to pay close attention to our updates over the next 2 days ahead of this potentially significant severe weather event. All the details are below.
NICE & SUNNY TODAY; CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY… Before we get to our next round of active weather on Thursday, we have two very nice days ahead today and tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies are expected on this Tuesday. High temperatures will peak in the low-80s across our region. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s again by 6AM Wednesday ahead of increasing cloudiness across the area by Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will peak in the 80-83° range.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING… We could have a few spotty areas of rain Wednesday night after 9PM, especially across west Alabama in areas west of the Alabama River (Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo counties). Communities on the eastern flank of our area like Crestview, Destin, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, and Luverne will probably be dry until we get to the early morning hours of Thursday.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Again, I know folks are probably sick of hearing about severe weather. I understand. It certainly is not ideal, by any stretch of the imagination, to have back-to-back-to-BACK significant severe weather events like this. Perhaps now more than ever when people may be tuning all of this out, please tag someone that may not be as “weather aware” as you are. We need everyone to be aware of the potential for tornadoes and damaging winds across our region yet again on Thursday.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS – THURSDAY… All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. The greater tornado risk may set up on the eastern half of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida where the better combination of “atmospheric ingredients” may come together to support tornadoes.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY… 5AM to 3PM will be the ten hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The core window for severe storms will be from 9AM to 2PM. We will probably have to tweak the timing of the severe weather potential slightly over the next 24 hours as we continue to parse through the latest model guidance. Be sure to check back with me later tonight and tomorrow (Wednesday) morning for an update.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… All locales in south Alabama and all locales in northwest Florida are involved in this Level 3 risk valid for Thursday. Level 3 risk on Thursday: Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Red Level, Wing, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Range, Belleville, Owassa, Lyeffion, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Frisco City, Excel, Mexia, Perdue Hill, Peterman, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, McIntosh, Millry, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, Damascus, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Molino, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Warrington, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Whitfield, Munson, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Baker, Milligan, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, and surrounding areas. These are just a few of the locales involved. If you don’t see your specific town and you’re in south Alabama or northwest Florida, you’re still included in this Level 3 (out of 5) risk.
LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST… Much of central and southeast Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle is also involved in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone: Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Opelika, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Slocomb, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Union Springs, Troy, Hayneville, Selma, Camden, Linden, Sweet Water, Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Prattville, Wetumpka, Alexander City, Valley, Lanett, Tuskegee, Rockford, Talladega, Heflin, Lake Martin, Hoover, Leeds, Roanoke, Marianna, Panama City, Seaside, DeFuniak Springs, Port St. Joe, Tallahassee, Atlanta (GA), Macon (GA), Valdosta (GA), Savannah (GA), Jacksonville (FL), and surrounding areas.
DON’T FALL INTO THE COMPARISON TRAP… I do not like to get into the “comparison game” where folks attempt to compare past and future severe weather events. Will this severe weather event on Thursday be similar to the high impact, widespread event that happened two days ago on Sunday with multiple tornadoes and widespread damage? It is possible, but I also cannot say that definitively. This certainly is NOT a low-end event as the risk is higher than that. The truth is if a tornado OR damaging winds affects you in any way, shape, or form, that is a big deal. Bottom line: Be ready for severe weather again on Thursday.
APRIL IS OUR BIG SEVERE WEATHER MONTH… Keep in mind that while it may feel exhausting or frustrating to have so many rounds of severe weather, it is quite normal for Alabama and northwest Florida to have multiple rounds of active weather in April. We are in the heart of our primary severe weather and tornado season, which generally runs from March 1 to the end of April. Once we get into the month of May, I expect we will catch some type of break and the overall pattern will change somewhat. We have this potential round of severe storms setting up on Thursday and the next round potentially this Sunday, April 26, but hopefully after that we will start to see some “light at the end of the tunnel,” in terms of our active weather pattern settling down.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, before we get into this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next video and detailed text discussion posted later today on Facebook. Before that, I’ll have plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice Tuesday!