ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TODAY; TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NEAR PUERTO RICO… Today will serve as somewhat of a transition day as we move away from very high rain chance days to lower rain chances this weekend. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on this Thursday. Most of the showers and storms will happen after 1PM. A few stronger storms may produce torrential downpours, loud thunder, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe weather is not expected today, however. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Isaias, currently located near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the northeast Caribbean Sea. “Potential Tropical Cyclone #9” was finally upgraded to Isaias last night at 10PM now that a low-level circulation center has formed. Isaias will move northwest toward The Bahamas today and tomorrow, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Isaias is expected to be very near the U.S. East Coast in the days ahead, with local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida NOT expected at this time.
STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY… Compared to the last few days, there should be far fewer in the way of showers and thunderstorms across our region this afternoon into this evening. There still will inevitably be isolated pop-up thunderstorms in progress this evening, but the overall coverage will be less. High temperatures today will be a bit warmer than previous days since our area won’t have as many clouds around. Highs will be in the 85-89° range in most spots. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed today in the RedZone Weather app.
MOSTLY SUNNY & HOT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… We get a much-needed break from the endless supply of rain on Friday into Saturday. Rain chances will be in the 0-10% chance range on Friday as the plume of moisture from the Gulf takes a temporary break. Plenty of sunshine is in store on both Friday and Saturday. Grab the sunscreen if you’re headed to a local beach, creek/river, or pool as the UV Index will be excessively high.
MORE SHOWERS & STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return on Sunday into Monday. I expect storms to be widely spaced and there is a good chance that most spots will be without rain each day. High temperatures will remain in the 90s with morning lows in the low-70s.
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NEAR PUERTO RICO… The system formerly known as INVEST 92L and then Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 has finally become Tropical Storm Isaias now that a low-level circulation has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Isaias is expected to move over or just north of Hispaniola today, and there is a high chance the island’s rugged terrain will really do a number on the system and rip it apart. The center of Isaias may reform tonight in the Atlantic just north of Hispaniola. The system, regardless of whether it is significantly affected by Hispaniola, will continue rapidly moving northwest at 15-20 mph tonight and tomorrow. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely in the Turks & Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas tonight into Friday. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a 65 mph tropical storm approaching the southern part of Florida near Homestead, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Pompano Beach. The NHC forecast takes Isaias northward toward Jacksonville before lurching northeast toward the Carolinas early next week. I would suggest confidence in this idea is growing rather quickly, thus folks in the Florida Peninsula (NOT the Panhandle where we are) should really be watching this system carefully. I don’t *think* explosive development will happen as we have dry air AND atmospheric shear ahead of the system as it approaches Florida, but we all know sometimes tropical systems can misbehave and have some surprises in store. Good confidence in this point in the track guidance, however. Breathe easier if you’re in the local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Looks like Isaias will completely miss our area to the east!
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MANY AREAS… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the following places: Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the entire southern and northern coastlines of the Dominican Republic, the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, the Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. We also note a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini. A Tropical Storm Watch will be required tonight or tomorrow for parts of south Florida, potentially including the Florida Keys and areas near Miami.
GULF & TROPICAL ATLANTIC QUIET, FOR NOW… The Gulf of Mexico and the remainder of the tropical Atlantic (east of and behind Tropical Storm Isaias) are quiet with the National Hurricane Center noting that no other tropical storms are forecast to develop over the next 3-5 days. There are a few tropical waves near the African continent but NHC suggests those waves are unlikely to develop due to ongoing dry air to the north of each wave. Good news!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!