RZW EXEC: TROPICS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday evening to each of you! We have had an extended period of weather conditions that have been a bit more calm compared to the first half of the year. Over the next several weeks, our focus will largely be on the ongoing hurricane season. We are approaching the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on September 11. Right on schedule, we now have two tropical waves that will likely become tropical storms over the next few days. One is located in the eastern Carribean Sea near the Lesser Antilles and the other is located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far away from any land areas at the moment. The tropical disturbance we will really need to focus on in the days ahead is the wave in the Caribbean, currently branded as INVEST 97L. This disturbance might move into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is too early to know if local impacts will happen. I will have further RZW Exec updates for you as needed in the days ahead. Below is our highly detailed, public post that will debut later this evening. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs or weather questions.
MULTIPLE TROPICAL WAVES LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORMS SOON… There is now a high (70-90%) chance that multiple tropical storms will develop over the next 3-5 days. INVEST 97L is a tropical wave located in the eastern Caribbean Sea as of this evening. Development of this system is likely to happen once the tropical disturbance reaches the western Caribbean Sea, near or just west of Jamaica, this weekend. Beyond that, it’s truly anyone’s guess as to where 97L will go. This is a disturbance that warrants our attention as local impacts could become possible toward the end of next week IF (big IF!) the system moves toward our area. We are also monitoring a separate, distinct tropical wave (branded as INVEST 98L) in the Atlantic Ocean that has a high (90+%) chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next few days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. There remains ample uncertainty as to just how close this developing system will get to the continental United States. Some model scenarios ultimately take 98L out to sea, while others show a system approaching South Florida in about a week. More details are below.
INVEST 97L IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA… The National Hurricane Center discussion summarizes 97L quite well: “A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. This wave is moving quickly westward at about 20 mph and significant development is unlikely while it moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to slow down, and a tropical depression will likely form late this week or this weekend when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.”
TIMING – INVEST 97L… The tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea (INVEST 97L) is currently situated in a zone where no one in the U.S. needs to panic or be worried. This system is still 6-8 days out from any potential U.S. impacts IF any actually happen. 97L will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend in the western Caribbean Sea. Early next week is when the system will likely be in the Bay of Campeche, near the Yucatan Peninsula, or be in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This is a tropical disturbance we need to be aware of, but it is too early to know if any specific U.S. impacts will happen and if so, where they will happen.
INVEST 98L IN THE ATLANTIC… The other tropical wave we are tracking this evening is INVEST 98L, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This tropical disturbance continues to be in an area where the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has a massive influence, thus it is hard to know exactly where the features of this tropical wave are specifically situated. From NHC: “An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.”
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NEXT UPDATE… I’ll have your next detailed post about the tropics and our local weather forecast in my next morning video that will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to join me in the video for the very latest information. Have a great Tuesday evening!