FOUR TROPICAL DISTURBANCES, BUT NO IMMINENT GULF THREATS… The tropics remain active across the Atlantic Basin, but the good news is we do not have any immediate threats to any part of the Gulf of Mexico region on this Sunday evening. The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close watch on a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea that has a 70-80% chance of developing into a tropical storm as the system moves west toward the Yucatan Peninsula in a few days. There is also a separate tropical disturbance located east of Jacksonville, FL in the Atlantic that has a high (60-70%) chance of becoming a tropical storm as the system moves away from the U.S. In addition, two other tropical waves far out in the Atlantic Ocean have a low, but growing, chance of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. Let’s look at a few Sunday evening forecast details…
80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… This evening, the tropical wave located south of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea has arguably the greatest chance of developing into a tropical storm out of any of the systems currently being monitored in the Atlantic Basin. This tropical wave will probably develop in the next 2-3 days as it continues moving west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Model initialization on this system hasn’t really been clear cut (like a lot of tropical storms so far this year!) so it is a bit too early to rule out any local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. I am encouraged by model trends, however, that have consistently showed the system moving into the southern Gulf and ultimately into the mainland of Mexico south of Texas. That scenario has been suggested by MOST major weather models. Again, it is too early to give any type of “all clear” for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. This is the system we will be watching closely over the next few days.
70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC… A tropical disturbance associated with a frontal boundary, located east of Jacksonville, Florida, in the far western Atlantic Ocean has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 2-3 days. This disturbance will move northeast and out to sea, regardless of if formal development happens. We can safely give south Alabama and northwest Florida a complete all clear from this system.
20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE… From NHC: “A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing limited shower activity, and any development of this system should be slow to occur due to unfavorable environmental conditions.”
30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA… The “tropical wave train” is set to continue over the next few weeks. From NHC: “A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.”
LOCALLY, SCATTERED STORMS… I don’t see any signs of significant forecast changes ahead over the next 5-7 days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day over the next 7 days. The driest days through the upcoming weekend will probably be Tuesday and Wednesday when we have less in the way of storms around. High temperatures are slated to be near 90° with morning lows in the mid-70s. Seasonal early September weather!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next full #rzw forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Monday with the very latest details on all of the tropical disturbances. We will also look in details at our next few days in terms of what you can expect locally. See you then!