STORMS AT TIMES TODAY; TRACKING 4 TROPICAL DISTURBANCES… Scattered downpours are expected at times on this Monday as our seemingly endless summer pattern of P.M. storms, heat, and humidity continues. High temperatures will be near 90 degrees in most spots with heat index values expected to climb above 100 this afternoon. We continue to monitor four distinct tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin that all have at least some potential of becoming tropical storms over the next few days. While no tropical impacts are expected locally, we are expecting a continuation of the potential for tropical downpours at times this week, mainly today and then again on Friday into Saturday. The middle part of the week will trend a bit drier. Let’s look at all of your Monday forecast details.
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES MIDWEEK… High temperatures (mid-90s) in combination with high dewpoint temperatures will lead to high heat index values Tuesday through Thursday. While the thermometer will show temperatures in the mid-90s, what it feels like outside in the afternoon and early evening hours will be more like 105-110°.
80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… The tropical wave located south of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to have the greatest chance of developing into a tropical storm out of any of the systems currently being monitored in the Atlantic Basin. This tropical wave will probably develop in the next 2-3 days as it continues moving west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Model initialization on this system hasn’t really been clear cut (like a lot of tropical storms so far this year!) so it is a bit too early to rule out any local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. I am encouraged by model trends, however, that have consistently showed the system moving into the southern Gulf and ultimately the mainland of Mexico south of Texas. That scenario has been suggested by MOST major weather models. Again, it is too early to give any type of all clear for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. This is the system we will be watching closely over the next few days.
70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC… A tropical disturbance associated with a frontal boundary, located east of Jacksonville, Florida, in the far western Atlantic Ocean has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 2-3 days. This disturbance will move northeast and out to sea, regardless of if formal development happens. We can safely give south Alabama and northwest Florida a complete all clear from this system.
20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE… From NHC: “A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing limited shower activity, and any development of this system should be slow to occur due to unfavorable environmental conditions.”
30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA… The “tropical wave train” is set to continue over the next few weeks. From NHC: “A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.”
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See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!