RZW EXEC: MAJOR RAIN EVENT AHEAD DUE TO TROPICAL STORM SALLY… RZW Exec partners, good Saturday evening. Impacts from Tropical Storm Sally are expected to be quite pronounced near the Alabama beaches on Monday and Tuesday. 10 to 15 inches of rainfall is not out of the question near the immediate coastline of Alabama, Mississippi, and northwest Florida. I am most concerned this evening about the flooding and flash flooding potential setting up near our coastline. In addition, high wind gusts may be an issue for the Alabama coastline. We also will have an ongoing, long duration tornado risk that extends from Monday to Wednesday due to the projected path of what will likely be Hurricane Sally making landfall near or just to the west of our area, putting all of us locally in the unstable, eastern flank of the storm. I have written a **highly** detailed post (below) outlining what to expect in each of our local counties. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or specific decision support needs. Thanks!
HIGHLY DETAILED POST: LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY DUE TO TROPICAL STORM SALLY… You will find a detailed assessment below as to what to expect in each of our local counties due to Tropical Storm Sally, which will likely make landfall as a hurricane some time Monday evening or Tuesday either in our area or just to our west in southeast Mississippi or Louisiana. Keep in mind that impacts WILL extend well away from the center landfall point AND our area will be on the volatile eastern flank of this developing storm. Local impacts from Sally could extend into Wednesday and maybe even Wednesday night, especially near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Unlike previous tropical systems we have had “near miss” encounters with over the last few months (Cristobal and Marco), the impacts locally (in south Alabama and northwest Florida) from Sally will probably be more pronounced, especially at our local beach zones. More details are below.
TIMING – POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES LOCALLY… Spin-up, tropical tornadoes will be possible across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida starting as early as the very early morning hours of Monday. Unfortunately, since Sally will be slowing down on approach to landfall, the risk of isolated tornadoes will extend well into Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps even Wednesday. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent tornado warnings early next week. You need something like a NOAA Weather Radio or smartphone app that is designed to wake you up. It is a good idea to visit your smartphone’s notification settings and make sure Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) are turned ON.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TRACKING PAULETTE & RENE… Tropical Storm Paulette is expected to become a hurricane tonight and directly affect Bermuda on Monday. Rene remains a weak tropical storm with no land impacts expected. We’re also tracking newly designated Tropical Depression 20 in the central Atlantic Ocean. TD20 will likely become Tropical Storm Teddy soon and move west, followed by a jolt to the north (and hopefully out to sea) early next week. NO need to worry about any of those systems locally. Our focus is 100% on Tropical Storm Sally at this point.
Below are the detailed county-by-county assessments discussing what you can expect from Tropical Storm Sally.
MOBILE COUNTY, AL… A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Mobile County. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Dauphin Island and along the western shore of Mobile Bay. 70-80 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 60-70 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Mobile County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to Mobile Bay and the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay.
BALDWIN COUNTY, AL… A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Baldwin County. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, and along the eastern shore of Mobile Bay near Spanish Fort, Montrose, Daphne, Fairhope, and Point Clear. 70-80 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 60-70 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Baldwin County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to Mobile Bay and the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL… A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Escambia County, FL. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Pensacola Beach, NAS Pensacola, Perdido Key, and along the shores of Pensacola Bay and East Bay. 60-70 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 50-60 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Escambia County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.
SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL… A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Santa Rosa County. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Gulf Breeze and Navarre, and along the shores of Pensacola Bay and East Bay. 60-70 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 50-60 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Santa Rosa County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.
OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL… A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Okaloosa County. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, and along the shores of Choctawhatchee Bay. 50-60 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 40-50 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Okaloosa County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to the coastline may have 4-10″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including minor storm surge, minor coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.
WASHINGTON COUNTY, AL… 20-40 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 20-30 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Washington County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.
Locations: Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm.
CLARKE COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Clarke County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.
Locations: Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs.
MONROE COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Monroe County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.
Locations: Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph may be possible at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals are likely to be in the 3-6″ range in total across Escambia County, AL. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.
Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall.
CONECUH COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Conecuh County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.
Locations: Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville.
COVINGTON COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Covington County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.
Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield.
BUTLER COUNTY, AL… No major impacts are expected. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night, but the risk is greater in counties to the southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday through Wednesday. Breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening into Tuesday. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Sally will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Monday night.
Locations: Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home.
SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have a detailed, live video update a bit later this evening. Hope you’ll join us for that. Have a great Saturday evening!