RZW EXEC: IMPACTS FROM SALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATER TODAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday morning! The overall track forecast for Tropical Storm Sally has shifted east. This means that potential local impacts have been increased. What has changed since I last emailed you:
– The risk of heavy rain and a long duration flash flood and subsequent river/creek flood event looks increasingly likely. Total rainfall amounts are expected to be slightly higher than previously suggested.
– The risk of high wind gusts has increased across parts of Mobile, Baldwin, and Washington counties in west Alabama.
– Storm surge is expected to be higher than previously suggested. 3 to 5 feet of storm surge will be possible along the shores of Mobile Bay (particularly the western shore) and the Alabama beaches.
Sally could easily become a memorable flooding event across the Gulf Coast. I don’t like getting into the comparison game, but I’ve seen talk of comparisons between Hurricane Danny (1997) and the forecast for Sally. Danny was the single wettest tropical system in Alabama history. All storms are different, but even with discussions of comparisons to an event like Danny makes me a bit uneasy.
Below, you will find information that will debut in our 7AM video post. Since impacts from Sally will likely begin later today, this will serve as my last RZW Exec scheduled update for this event. We will go into live coverage if and when tornado warnings happen. As always, please let me know if you have specific questions or decision support needs. Have a great Monday and stay safe!
SALLY PROJECTED PATH SHIFTS EAST; IMPACTS POSSIBLE THRU WEDNESDAY… The track forecast for Tropical Storm Sally was shifted eastward overnight, putting more of our local area in the path of what could be more significant impacts. Sally has continued to organize and will likely become a hurricane later this morning or in the afternoon hours. The local National Weather Service office in Mobile issued a statement overnight indicating a “significant to potentially historic flooding event is becoming increasingly likely.” The latest projections now call for 10 to 15 inches of TOTAL rainfall from Sally with isolated higher amounts of 20 to 25 inches being possible near Dauphin Island and the Alabama beaches. That is not a typo. **2 FEET of rain** is not out of the question due to this storm in isolated spots near the Alabama beaches. If that verifies, that will indeed, be (in the words of NWS) “historic.” In addition to the extreme rainfall threat, isolated tornadoes will become a concern today, first near the coast and progressively more for inland areas as well. The high wind threat from Sally will likely increase late tonight into Tuesday. Storm surge and coastal flooding also could be a significant issue in some spots along Mobile Bay, with the magnitude of the storm surge being highly dependent on the exact future track of Sally. All of your Monday forecast details are below.
HEAVY RAIN INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY… Showers and storms will start near the coast and progressively move inland throughout the day. Heavy rain is likely at times today with a more steady, perhaps nonstop rain setting up later tonight. The flash flood risk will begin once heavy rain and storms begin training over the same areas, which seems increasingly likely to happen on Tuesday into Wednesday.
TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST FIRST; SPREADING INLAND TODAY… Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rain bands of Sally that spread across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. This means that the tornado risk will likely start first around the northwest Florida coast and gradually spread westward and inland throughout the day. Tropical tornadoes generally do not last long, but they can cause localized areas of damage and still are very serious in some cases. If we have tornado warnings today or at any point over the next few days, be sure to join us in our live video coverage that will remain on the air as long as the warning is in effect.
HIGH WIND POSSIBLE NEAR AL COAST & WEST AL TUES. INTO WEDS… Due to the eastward track adjustment for Sally, we now have a slightly higher risk zone for hurricane force wind gusts in place for much of Mobile County and the coastal areas of Baldwin County as well. These are the places that have the highest risk of potential wind-related damage in our local area. The risk of tropical storm force winds has expanded to now include parts of Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama since the core of Sally will be near these areas on Wednesday.
RIVER & CREEK FLOODING POSSIBLE… It is a good thing that local creeks and rivers are generally running at average to below average stream flows as of today, because Sally will quickly cause many of our local streams to become full, if not go into flood stage. River and creek flooding could become an issue as early as Tuesday and extend long after the circulation of Sally departs from the Southeastern U.S. Coastal areas have a higher probability of river and creek flooding than inland areas, but the risk certainly is not zero in inland areas for river and creek flooding either. Be ready for possible river and creek flooding later this week!
STORM SURGE LIKELY AT THE ALABAMA BEACHES & MOBILE BAY… A highly significant and potentially dangerous 7 to 11 ft. storm surge is now forecast for eastern Louisiana and parts of the Mississippi coast WEST of Ocean Springs. 4 to 7 ft. storm surge is expected from Ocean Springs to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A 3 to 5 ft. storm surge is projected for the Alabama coastline, the Mississippi Sound, and Mobile Bay. 1-3 ft. of storm surge is expected at the northwest Florida beaches.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR MOBILE BAY & AL BEACHES… Because of the risk of water levels rising and the 3 to 5 ft. storm surge, a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. Coastal flooding will be most likely to happen in southern Mobile County near Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre. Storm surge issues are also expected near the Causeway in the northern part of Mobile Bay.
LANDFALL IN LA OR MS BUT IMPACTS LIKELY IN AL & NW FL… The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center currently shows a landfall of Sally being possible from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward to Orange Beach, Alabama. That is the CENTER point. Impacts will extend outward WELL away from the center point. The current thinking is that the center of circulation of Sally is likely to approach Louisiana or Mississippi as a hurricane later today with landfall more likely tomorrow (Tuesday). This scenario would place our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the unstable eastern side of the storm, where the near constant flow of moisture off the northern Gulf of Mexico could create a dangerous flash flooding setup near the coast and the potential for a long form tornado threat. Even minor changes to the track forecast could put our region at a greater risk of stronger sustained winds. It is critical that we all up-to-date on the progress of Sally over the next 24-48 hours.
SALLY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO END LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… We have a long few days ahead with lots of rain and the potential for significant hazards, including high wind, storm surge, tornadoes, coastal flooding, flash flooding, and river & creek flooding. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings over the next 48-72 hours. I realize this is a long duration, inconvenient weather situation for MANY folks across our area, but when we get to late Wednesday and early Thursday, we will be in much better shape. Thursday will likely feature only scattered showers and perhaps a few P.M. storms, but Sally will definitely be on the way out at that point.
COOLER AIR POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND… It is great to be able to conclude this long forecast discussion by reporting we have a real shot of seeing some cooler, drier, stable air moving in for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures may drop to around 82-83 degrees. There is a chance we may have to knock a few degrees of that projection, too! That means we could have HIGH temps around 80 by Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows in the low- to mid-60s. A lot can change between now and then. Stay tuned!
HURRICANE PAULETTE RIGHT OVER BERMUDA THIS MORNING… The large eye of Hurricane Paulette is basically right on top of Bermuda this morning in the Atlantic Ocean. Paulette continues to strengthen with maximum winds up to 85 mph at the time I’m writing this update on this Monday morning. Paulette is expected to become a major hurricane as the storm begins moving northeast later today and ultimately out to sea and away from land areas. No direct U.S. impacts are expected because of Paulette.
TD20/TEDDY-TO-BE LIKELY TO BECOME POWERFUL HURRICANE… Tropical Depression 20, aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Teddy shortly, is located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. TD20/Teddy will move west over the next day or so before rapidly moving northwest into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting TD20/Teddy to be a powerful major hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, north of the Leeward Islands and southwest of Bermuda, in 5 days. U.S. impacts are increasingly UNLIKELY due to TD20/Teddy. Good news! It is too early to know if impacts will be possible in Bermuda.
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW… There is a low-end (20%) chance that a weak tropical area of low pressure drifting south in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a tropical storm over the next few days. This is a totally separate system from Sally. From NHC: “A weak area of low pressure over the west-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce limited shower activity. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves southwestward and then southward at 5 to 10 mph over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.”
TWO MORE TROPICAL WAVES… There are two other tropical waves (one in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands and one over western Africa) that could develop into tropical storms in the days ahead. NHC places the current respective probabilities at a 70% chance and a 30% chance.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… We will go into long form live severe weather coverage if tornado warnings are needed today or over the next few days. Until then, I will have ongoing updates in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted later this afternoon or sooner, if needed. Have a good Monday!