COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS REGION; 50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… Storms are moving out and cooler, drier, stable air is in the initial stages of moving into our region. The risk of any severe storms across our local area has ended as of 8:30PM. Overnight into Tuesday, we may have a few lingering showers behind the cold front. Temperatures are already near 60 degrees in parts of west Alabama. Our local weather pattern will be increasingly quiet with mild days and cool nights ahead. Our focus in the upcoming days will be on the developing tropical feature in the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center continues to raise the probability of tropical development. A few Monday evening forecast notes are below.
50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN CARIBBEAN… There continues to be a strong model signal that a tropical storm may form in the western Caribbean Sea later this week, this weekend, or perhaps even early next week. It remains too early to know where this storm will ultimately end up, but interests along the entire Gulf of Mexico coastline should monitor this system over the next several days. From NHC this evening: “A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.”
COOLER, DRIER AIR INCOMING OVERNIGHT… We could have some intermittent, lingering showers overnight into Tuesday. I expect skies to clear from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Overnight lows on Tuesday morning will be around 60 degrees. High temperatures by 2PM will only be in the low-70s! An extended streak of sunny, mild days is ahead with cool nights. Overnight lows on Wednesday morning will be in the low- to mid-50s.
NEXT UPDATE… My next detailed video update and text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Have a great Monday evening!