SUNNY TODAY & WEDNESDAY; RAIN & STORMS BY FRIDAY… Mainly sunny skies will continue to be in place across the region both today and tomorrow ahead of increased rain chances late Thursday into Friday. We are also tracking Tropical Storm Epsilon in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Epsilon will not be a direct concern for our local area in the days ahead. The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean also continues to look rather weak with no significant development expected. At this point, it looks like warmer weather is here to stay for awhile. See all of the explanations in your Tuesday forecast notes, below.
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON IN ATLANTIC… Tropical Depression 27 strengthened into Tropical Storm Epsilon late yesterday morning. Epsilon is the fifth Greek Alphabet-named storm. The good news is Epsilon will not ever be a direct local threat for Alabama or northwest Florida. The system will likely move near or just to the east of Bermuda later this week or this weekend, probably as a hurricane. Epsilon will likely then turn northeast and move out into the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean before becoming extratropical next week. No U.S. impacts are expected other than perhaps high waves along the Eastern Seaboard.
10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center has maintained an outlined area in the western Caribbean Sea for upwards of a week, suggesting the potential for tropical development. The latest model guidance is quite “bearish” on the prospects of this happening, meaning development seems increasingly UNLIKELY. This is good news. From NHC: “A trough of low pressure extends southeastward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea to a broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and is primarily located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This large disturbance is expected to consolidate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so before move drifting westward toward the Yucatan peninsula by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula through midweek.”
STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… Friday is slated to be the wettest day out of any day in the next 7 days as an area of low pressure moves by our region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday. We actually may have a few storms around on Thursday evening, but I expect those storms to be more scattered in nature. At this point, severe weather seems rather unlikely. Our secondary severe weather season generally kicks off around November 1, so we will need to start monitoring each passing storm system more diligently in the weeks ahead. For now, no real signs of severe weather are on the table. Good news!
NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSIONS… The longer range weather models do not currently show any signs of a significant cool down at any point in the next 7-9 days. High temperatures look to remain in the 80s with lows in the 60s through the middle part of next week. There could be more rain and storms on the horizon around a week from today, but that idea is certainly not set in stone at this point.
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See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Hope you have a great day!