7:14PM October 23, 2020

HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN… There is now a 70% chance that a tropical storm will form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days as a developing area of low pressure slowly drifts north or northwest. This would take the name “Zeta” if it becomes a named storm (see the detailed discussion about the naming scheme below). This area of low pressure is currently branded as INVEST 95L. There is an apparent mid-level circulation already in place near the Cayman Islands, meaning we are probably well on our way to a tropical depression forming this weekend or early next week. It remains too early, on this Friday evening, to determine if or when specific local impacts will happen because of this developing tropical storm in our local area. Some models have hinted at the potential for increased rain chances by Wednesday and Thursday of the upcoming week, but it is simply too early to know for sure IF our area will have specific impacts. Be sure to check back with me this weekend and early next week for the very latest on this developing system. A few Friday evening forecast notes are below.

SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY MEANS VERY LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NOW… No one, and I genuinely mean NO one, can tell you exactly where this storm will end up OR if it will for sure consolidate and form into a tropical storm. Generally speaking, if this storm gets its act together quicker, it will be more likely to move across Cuba and then potentially into the southeastern Gulf. If this disturbance remains weak this weekend, it is more likely to meander and linger in the western Caribbean Sea before being jolted to the north later next week (Tuesday into Wednesday) potentially toward the northern Gulf Coast. Again, simply too early for ANY specifics.

BETTER GRASP OF POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS BY MONDAY… There are some limiting factors that could hinder development of this system entirely (dry air to the west that may get wrapped in to the system, a shortwave trough passing near our area that could tug the system northeast in a couple of days, etc.), but trends today have pointed to a developing tropical storm. It is expected and normal in this stage of development for a tropical cyclone to have AMPLE uncertainty about not only the future intensity of the storm, but also the future track. I imagine we will begin to get a much more firm grip of where this storm will ultimately move by Monday morning.

HURRICANE SEASON ENDS NOVEMBER 30… I can promise you I am just as ready as you are for hurricane season to come to an end. We have had an impactful, long, hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2020. We are all fatigued because of the COVID situation, storm after storm, and tons of RISK this year. I understand we are all tired of it, but please (emphasizing: PLEASE) do not let your guard down from the tropics just yet. We are certainly getting close to the end of the season, but are not quite done just yet. Please be sure to check back with me in the days ahead for the very latest information. Just like every storm so far this year, I promise we’ll get you through this one too!

NEXT NAME: ZETA… If this tropical disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name Zeta which is the 6th letter in the Greek Alphabet. If more named storms happen after Zeta, they will take the names Eta, Theta, Iota, and Kappa. I have had several questions over the last few weeks about what would happen if we ran out of Greek letters for names. That simply will not happen. It is a statistical impossibility. Hurricane season will end November 30. There always is a chance for a post-season storm or two in the basin, however IF we continued to have named storms into December and January (not expected, but also not completely impossible) we would reset the naming list on January 1. Any named storms that form after January 1 would take the names from the 2021 list (Ana, Bill, Claudette, etc.)

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app concerning this developing tropical system. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have another detailed forecast update posted by 7:15AM on Saturday morning. Be sure to join me for that. Have a great Friday evening!

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