LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY; GUSTY WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERN… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible on this Wednesday. Some of the storms could briefly become strong or even marginally severe this afternoon into the early part of this evening. There is very little doubt that an intense, long-lasting severe weather event simply will not happen due to a “mismatch” of severe weather ingredients today, but there is at least some chance that a few of the storms could produce gusty winds and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. The overall tornado risk is low, but it is not at zero today. Rain totals today into tonight will generally be pretty low with most spots having one half inch of rain or less. We are also looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day tomorrow and the Iron Bowl this weekend. Rain chances are slated to rise this weekend when heavy rain may become an issue. COLD air is set to arrive early next week as a potent cold front moves by our region. All of your Wednesday forecast notes are below.
UPDATED: LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk today for a big chunk of our local area, with the greatest tornado risk focused across west Alabama (Washington, Clarke, Monroe counties). The updated SPC low-end severe weather risk zone includes areas along and WEST of a line from Orange Beach to Munson to Andalusia to Troy to Opelika. These are the zones that have the greatest chance locally of seeing a strong to severe thunderstorm. This updated zone now includes Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Theodore, Wilmer, Citronelle, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Evergreen, Lyeffion, Repton, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Excel, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, McIntosh, and surrounding areas. The remainder of the local area is involved in the lower risk, “general thunderstorms” zone where widespread severe weather is not expected.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THANKSGIVING DAY… Thursday will be mostly dry across the region with mostly cloudy skies in place. Rain chances on Thanksgiving Day will be around 20%, meaning most of our area should remain dry. There also is a small chance of a few thunderstorms on Thanksgiving Day, but again, most spots will remain dry throughout the day. Severe weather is not expected on Thursday or on Friday. Temperatures will be quite mild for Thanksgiving with most spots peaking in the upper-70s.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS WEEKEND… Saturday and Sunday could be quite wet at times with heavy rain being possible. There also is a chance we could have some thunderstorms around this weekend, potentially on the strong side. A potent cold front will approach our area from the northwest. This “clash of the air masses” will create an opportunity for heavy rain and potentially strong storms. We will focus on this event after we get through the round of storms today into this evening.
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING… There is a strong signal in the ongoing model guidance that we will have a significant cold air intrusion into our area early next week. Overnight lows by Tuesday morning could easily end up below freezing (32°) with some spots experiencing temperatures as low as the mid-20s across inland areas. We’ll keep watching the data and bring you the latest about this potential over the next few days.
GULF & CARIBBEAN QUIET; SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE… No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea over the next 5 days. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of disturbed weather south of Bermuda that continues to have a 30% chance of becoming a subtropical storm in the days ahead. Regardless of if this system develops, it will not be a direct concern for the United States. If the storm becomes a subtropical storm, it will take the name “Kappa,” which is the next letter in the Greek Alphabet after Iota. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially end on Monday, November 30.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have many radar updates posted in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day. Have a nice Wednesday!