GORGEOUS TUESDAY; RUMORS OF SNOW ON MONDAY ABOUND… Mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low- to mid-50s are expected on this Tuesday. Looking ahead, we have multiple rounds of rain setting up (one late Wednesday night into Thursday and another Sunday night into Monday). Interestingly, there are some question marks with the system setting up late Sunday into Monday as to just how far south the rain/snow line will be. Model data has been perplexing (as is to be expected at this phase!) with more questions than answers at this point. Before we get to that precipitation event in the latter half of the weekend and early next week, we will have RAIN around on Thursday. There could be a few showers perhaps as early as Wednesday night. Our full Tuesday morning forecast details are below.
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON… Sunny skies today will give way to increasing cloudiness on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s today and tomorrow. Overnight lows on Wednesday morning will be in the mid-30s. Quite chilly in the early morning hours!
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY… A cold front will approach our area from the northwest on Thursday, meaning areas of rain will develop and move east into our area. There could be a few showers around as early as Wednesday night, but most of the rain associated with this passing weather system will happen locally on Thursday. Not everyone will have rain on Thursday as rain will likely happen in the form of scattered showers. Severe weather is not expected with this frontal passage as dewpoints will likely remain too low to support deep moisture return from the Gulf. Rain will clear out to the east on Thursday evening.
NICE, COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… High temperatures on Friday and on Saturday will only be in the 50s. Clouds will likely persist on Friday but mostly sunny skies return on Saturday. Overnight lows on Friday night and on Saturday night will be in the 30s.
RAIN RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… We very likely will have rain around late Sunday evening in the form of scattered showers. Rain coverage will likely increase on Monday morning. We have so many questions at this point that prevent me (or anyone else, for that matter) from giving a clear answer on the question, “Will we have snow in south Alabama and northwest Florida?” The best answer for that question right now is: Probably not. Deterministic model guidance has intermittently suggested the potential for some winter mischief on Monday with rain perhaps changing over to snow north of our local area (specifically over central and north Mississippi and perhaps parts of the northern half of Alabama). Some models have even suggested a remote possibility of some wintry precipitation or snow locally, but again, the data is inconsistent. Generally speaking in a scenario like this, it is best (5-6 days out from right now) to exclusively mention RAIN in the forecast exclusively because from a probability perspective, it remains unlikely for our area to have snow.
A REMINDER – ONE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT HELPFUL… You will likely see crazy single images of single model runs being posted wildly left and right on social media in the days ahead. I’ve even seen professional meteorologists resort to this tactic. Single images of one run of one deterministic model should be viewed as an “ingredient” that goes into the “recipe” of a forecast. Please be weary of anyone who resorts to this potentially misleading tactic designed to garner clicks and likes. Context is key and so many of these loony, single run model images that spread like wildfire simply don’t have any context whatsoever.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO – SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Keep in mind, we will be fine tuning this forecast over the next few days and more changes are certainly in the realm of possibilities. Most likely, we will have scattered rain showers Sunday night with intermittent rain at times on Monday with rain ending from west to east on Monday night. The question is will locales in central or northern parts of Alabama and Mississippi. The answer remains: It is far too early to know for sure. We certainly will keep watching trends and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.
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See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!