8:04PM January 5, 2021

THAT ROGUE CHANCE OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE GONE… If you blinked, you may have missed the very small chance of wintry precipitation or snow that was widely advertised on social media over the last two days. We have two bouts of rain ahead, one Wednesday night into Thursday and another setting up for late Sunday into Monday. The event in question, that had at least some small chance of snow or a wintry mix of precipitation, was the one setting up late Sunday into Monday. Unfortunately for snow/winter weather fans, the chance of snow now seems to be gone. A few notes about why are below.

SNOW IS OFTEN INDICATED ON MODEL DATA, BUT RARELY HAPPENS… If snow actually happened locally every time we saw various models indicating the potential for snow in the medium and long range, we would practically be in a different climate zone! The ECMWF/Euro, American-based GFS, Canadian-based models, and others suggested the potential for an area of low pressure to develop to our west over Texas and move east into our area on Sunday into Monday. Some models showed the potential for 1-3 inches of snow for parts of Mississippi and Alabama. That potential is simply now off the board. Why? Mainly because models have now shifted the track of the low pressure area much farther south, keeping much of the rain well offshore.

SINGLE IMAGE MODEL VIEWS NOT HELPFUL FOR SNOW EVENTS… I lost count yesterday. I could not keep up with how many weather enthusiasts and even some professional meteorologists posted single, deterministic model data from one run of one model showing this snow potential for parts of the Deep South. The model data, unfortunately, was classically inconsistent in the 6-7 day range. That is to be expected at that range. Now, all the model data shows RAIN on Sunday night into Monday and not any snow or wintry mischief.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW & RAIN ON THURSDAY… Cloud coverage will be on the increase tomorrow (Wednesday) as we look ahead to our next rain chance setting up for Wednesday night into Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible, especially Thursday morning. There could be a rumble of thunder or two near the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Severe weather is not expected, however.

NICE, QUIET WEEKEND… This weekend will feature intermittently cloudy skies with cool temperatures. Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s. I am very much looking forward to a quiet weather weekend and I am sure many of you are as well.

RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY… At this point, we will mention a chance of scattered showers late Sunday night into Monday as an area of low pressure likely passes to our south. It will be chilly Sunday night with temperatures in the upper-30s inland and in the low-40s closer to the coast. Any precipitation that does happen will be just a cold rain. We will keep watching trends carefully, but models have definitely trended a bit drier and slightly warmer for Sunday night into Monday.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video detailing the very latest information posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Tuesday evening!

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