A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING… The tornado risk in the overnight hours into Saturday morning is increasing, plain and simple. While the main concern continues to be a developing squall line that could be particularly intense and produce widespread damaging winds capable of knocking down trees across the region, the overall tornado threat has increased as multiple, discrete supercell storms may form out ahead of the squall line. The Storm Prediction Center has added a “significant tornado” zone for much of southeast Mississippi and part of west Alabama where a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes may become possible overnight into Saturday morning. These severe storms are expected to cross our region from 3AM to 10AM, a bit earlier than previous projections. PLEASE have a way to get urgent weather warnings tonight before you go to sleep! We will come on Facebook Live if/when tornado warnings are needed for our local area.
HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNINGS BEFORE YOU GO TO SLEEP… Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into our area around 3 and 4AM. These storms could quickly become severe. Please have a NOAA Weather Radio, Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) on your smartphone, or something that can wake you up if your specific location goes under a Tornado Warning or a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
WHAT TO EXPECT – THROUGH 3AM… Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms will be possible through 2-3AM. There is a chance some of these storms could become severe and produce gusty winds, very heavy rain, and large hail. Golfball size hail happened early this morning near the Alabama-Mississippi state line near Pascagoula. We also have had several confirmed reports of hail in the storms in central Alabama earlier today. The overall tornado risk will ramp up after 3AM.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY MORNING… Severe storms are likely to move across our region from 3AM to 10AM. That seven hour window is a couple of hours sooner than projections from earlier today. It cannot be stressed enough: Please have a way to get warnings before you go to sleep. You need something that can wake you up if a tornado warning is issued for your area! Rain could persist into the early afternoon hours, but clearing skies are expected in the afternoon and evening hours as storms continue to move eastward and out of our local area.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MEAN BUSINESS OVERNIGHT… Thunderstorms along the squall line expected to move into our area could really pack a punch with wind gusts as high as 70-80 mph. I know we get severe thunderstorm warnings around here, particularly in summertime, that sometimes produce very little damage, but in this case, I would suggest really keeping a close eye on storms involved in severe thunderstorm warning polygons as high winds and large hail will be possible. Wind gusts may down a few trees in the overnight hours. If you know someone in a mobile home surrounded by trees, please make sure they’re aware of this potential overnight into Saturday morning! Please “be the hero” and help me get the word out about this.
UPDATED: LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK EXPANDED… An uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zone is in place for parts of west Alabama due to an increased tornado risk and an elevated chance of damaging straight line wind gusts. Keep in mind that a Level 4 risk is quite uncommon in the grand scheme of things. A Level 4 risk means that widespread and intense thunderstorms capable of doing widespread damage will be possible. Tornadoes are MOST likely to happen in this zone, although we note there is at least some risk of tornadoes in the lower risk zones as well. The Level 4 risk is valid for communities like Chatom, Jackson, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Millry, Leroy, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, and surrounding areas in parts of Clarke, Washington, and Mobile counties. We note that parts of Marengo, Choctaw, Sumter, Greene, and Pickens counties are also involved in this higher risk zone.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR THE REST OF OUR LOCAL AREA… The remainder of our local area (outside of the areas mentioned in the previous paragraph) are involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk. A Level 3 risk means that numerous severe storms will be possible, including the potential for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. This Level 3 risk includes places like Mobile, Prichard, Bayou La Batre, Saraland, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Foley, Bay Minette, Pensacola, Molino, Warrington, Gulf Breeze, Milton, Pace, Jay, Century, Atmore, Flomaton, Brewton, Poarch, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and surrounding areas.
A NOTE ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS… You may be wondering why the remainder of our area is involved in the Level 3 risk since the current valid convective outlook only shows part of our area involved in the higher Level 3 risk instead of the full, remainder of the region. This is because the Storm Prediction Center convective outlook products have a “cut off” time each day of 12:00Z time, or 7AM CDT in our case. Basically, the “Friday outlook” is technically from 7AM Friday to 7AM Saturday, then the Saturday outlook picks up at 7AM. The map attached “fixes” this issue, highlighting the maximum risk zone for each respective outlook day.
RAIN AND STORMS CLEAR OUT LATE MORNING… The good news is that severe storms and lingering rain should clear out pretty quickly late in the morning hours of Saturday. There may be a few lingering showers in the early afternoon hours, but rain should be gone completely to our east by 2PM.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have many updates posted throughout the night as needed in the RedZone Weather app. If or when a tornado warning is issued for our local area, we will start our uninterrupted, live video coverage to bring you the latest information.
Stay safe and have a good Friday evening!