6:52AM May 17, 2021

SEVERE WEATHER SEASON DONE; CALM WEATHER THIS WEEK; TROPICS QUIET… Alabama and northwest Florida are transitioning away from what seemed like a never-ending cycle of severe storms every few days to quiet, summer-like weather. This significant pattern change is being caused by a large ridge of high pressure that will build in over the southeastern U.S. over the next few days. This week will be the quietest weather week we have had so far in 2021 with plenty of sunshine and building heat. High temperatures on this Monday will be in the mid-80s. Mostly sunny skies are expected throughout the day.

TROPICS ARE QUIET; RUMORS OF GULF STORM OVERBLOWN… No tropical storm formation is expected in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean over the next 5-7 days. One major global weather model (the Global Forecast System or GFS) flashed an inconsistent signal of a potential for a preseason tropical storm setting up in the Gulf of Mexico around May 22, however in classic fashion, that potential now seems to be off the table. You simply cannot trust model data for potential solutions that are 7+ days out. The data is generally unreliable more than a week out and changes at the drop of a hat. Note that you will probably see wild and crazy “one image of one run of one model” type images more and more over the next few months as we get into hurricane season. As always, discard these hyperbole-based posts.

BUILDING HEAT LATER THIS WEEK… There is a real chance some communities may have high temperatures approaching the 90 degree mark later this week as a big area of high pressure takes firm control of our weather pattern. Plenty of sunshine each afternoon will allow highs to be in the mid-80s on Monday and Tuesday. Summer is coming!

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great start to your week!

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