TROPICS COMING ALIVE BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW… There is now a 30% chance that a tropical storm will form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week as the overall environment for tropical development becomes a bit more favorable toward the middle part of June. A complex setup will happen later this week, extending into next week, when a large, Central American gyre of low pressure sets up across the southern flank of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Sometimes, these large gyres can spin up tropical storms that move north into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 30% chance of a tropical storm forming potentially near the Nicaragua coast in the Caribbean Sea later this week. Let me be abundantly clear in stating two facts:
1) It is way too early to have any type of clear idea on IF this system develops into a tropical storm or where the system will ultimately end up.
2) IF (and that is a big if, at this point) the system were to move into the Gulf of Mexico, NO ONE, and I truly mean no one, can tell you where it will move. Wild, single run model images that have been broadly circulating on social media are not helpful at this stage without context. A model is only as good as the data that goes into it, and we simply don’t have good data to support forecasts beyond 7 days out. That applies to the local forecast and forecasting tropical systems.
FRIENDS DON’T LET FRIENDS SHARE FAKE NEWS… It is that time of year when the fear mongers and the hype/hyperbole folks go absolutely bonkers when global models start outputting solutions 7 to 14+ days out that show potential tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. It boggles my mind that people get a rush on scaring the masses, but you can bet your barometer, they do. Please keep in mind that obscure Facebook pages like “Southeastern Hurricane Source” and “Your City Weather Source” are often managed by people who have zero training or skill set in weather forecasting and broadcast communication. My inbox is often filled with questions about these obscure post that lack any real, detailed context. It would be so helpful, both now and in the future: If you see these posts being shared, please kindly educate the folks you love that it is so vital to have REPUTABLE sources for urgent weather info. It can be the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, local broadcast meteorologists, or your local EMA. We are honored to be one of your sources as well. Bottom line – Ditch the obscure pages and stay tuned to the real sources.
We’ll keep watching the tropics and bring you the very latest in the RedZone Weather app over the next few days.
STORMS HAPPENING THIS EVENING… Several loud, strong thunderstorms are happening this evening across parts of Conecuh, Monroe, Butler, and Covington counties in south Alabama. These storms are slowly drifting northeast. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was in effect for parts of Monroe, Conecuh, and Butler counties near places like Owassa, Bowles, and Lyeffion. These storms will slowly fade away over the next hour or so. Another round of storms will fire up on Tuesday, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours.
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. See you then!