6:51AM June 16, 2021

LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY TODAY; TROPICAL RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND… While most of our area will remain dry today, we are looking ahead to the weekend when deep tropical moisture will arrive across south Alabama and northwest Florida in association with the system that is currently branded as INVEST 92L. There is a high (80-90%) chance of 92L becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead as the system slowly moves to the north across the western Gulf of Mexico. If and when the system becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name “Claudette.” Impacts, in the form of heavy rain at times and potentially flash flooding, will begin to happen in parts of our local area this weekend, probably on Saturday. More details about the potential local impacts are below. Today, we may have a few showers and storms at the immediate coast, but most locations will remain dry with high temperatures in the low-90s. More Wednesday morning forecast details are below.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – INVEST 92L… This local impacts discussion has not changed since last evening. While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact future track of 92L (which will probably become Tropical Storm Claudette), confidence is increasing that our area will have heavy rain at times, especially closer to the immediate coast, that could lead to flash flooding. In addition, a threat of brief tornadoes will probably set up across at least part of our area at some point this weekend. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are likely at our Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend. Coastal flooding may also become a concern, depending on the exact future track of 92L. High winds of 40+ mph are NOT expected across south Alabama or northwest Florida at this time, although wind gusts of 20-30 mph may be possible near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend. Power outages seem fairly unlikely to happen in our local area, based on current forecast guidance.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF (INVEST 92L) MEANDERING… INVEST 92L continues to erratically move around the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche region near the coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is a high (80-90%) chance of this system becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as a slow northerly movement begins. Keep in mind, this process will be gradual. This likely will NOT be an explosive system that quickly ramps up to a hurricane. Instead, this will likely be a messy, large tropical storm with most of the rain and thunderstorms on the eastern side of the center of circulation. That is why our local area will potentially have issues with heavy rain and flash flooding into the weekend.

POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND… IF heavy rain and thunderstorms begin to train over the same areas this weekend, there is a significant chance we may have flash flooding issues in some locales. In addition, depending on how much rain our area receives this weekend into early next week, there is a chance river and creek flooding could become a concern in certain areas. It remains too early to know the specifics on this, but please be aware of the potential for flash flooding and ultimately river and creek flooding into next week.

LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY; FEW STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST… The vast majority of communities across our area will remain dry today. The exception to that general rule will happen at the immediate beaches where a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may bubble up. Areas along and south of Interstate 10 are where showers and thunderstorms are most likely to happen today. High temperatures will be in the low-90s today.

MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY… Tomorrow is set to be our final dry day for at least the next several days. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Thursday with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. I would suggest getting outside and enjoying some sunshine if you can on Thursday as we will likely have multiple dreary days this weekend into early next week with the tropical system flinging in moisture from the south.

TROPICAL STORM BILL EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST… Tropical Storm Bill can now be classified as a memory. The system continues to become extratropical over the cold waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean near Newfoundland. Bill is moving away from land and will dissipate completely today. This will serve as the final mention of Tropical Storm Bill in our text discussions.

TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… In addition to INVEST 92L and Tropical Storm Bill, we have also been tracking a tropical wave located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean closer to the African continent that has a very low-end chance of developing into a tropical storm briefly over the next few days. Typically, we do not see tropical storm development in that part of the Atlantic Basin until later in the hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center has revised development chances down to near 0%, thus this will serve as our final mention of this system.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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