RAIN LIKELY TO BEGIN TODAY AS PTC#3 MOVES NORTH… We kick off a soggy weekend today with showers and thunderstorms likely to happen this afternoon into this evening. Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 is likely to become Tropical Storm Claudette later today, although we note the system remains fairly disorganized this morning. Regardless of if the system actually takes a name or not, our local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remain the same: Heavy rain will be likely at times through Sunday with a chance of flash flooding. A few tornadoes will be possible across the region. Gusty (20-40 mph) winds may be possible near the immediate beach zones of Alabama. This tropical system will likely be remembered as a rainmaker for our area, however. I’ve got your full Friday morning forecast details below.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – SUMMARY… No real changes to report in terms of specific local impacts. Heavy rain will be possible at times this weekend with 5 to 8 inches of total rainfall being likely across our region. This heavy rain could lead to a flash flooding threat, particularly in areas where storms train over the same areas for multiple areas. Minor storm surge and minor coastal flooding may be possible in low-lying areas near the Alabama coast. Tornadoes may become possible this weekend across our entire area as the center of the storm moves onshore to our west, with the overall tornado risk likely being a bit greater for parts of Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties compared to counties farther east. Dangerous rip currents and high waves are expected at the local beaches this weekend.
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND… Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms are likely at times later today and into Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately, I cannot give you an exact answer on if rain (or even heavy rain) will be happening in a certain location at a given time. What I can tell you regarding this is that multiple rounds of heavy rain will likely happen that could last multiple hours for a given location, specifically in communities closer to the immediate coast. I will be closely monitoring radar trends today and over the next few days. I’ll have regular updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH – ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… All parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in a Flash Flood Watch due to the high rain amounts that are expected over the next few days. This includes Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Mobile, Baldwin, Monroe, Wilcox, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), and Okaloosa counties.
FLASH FLOODING RISK MAXIMIZED NEAR ALABAMA COAST… While the entire local area has some risk of flash flooding, the risk will likely be maximized across parts of Baldwin and Mobile counties in south Alabama where 6-8 inches of total rainfall will probably happen. If you encounter a water-covered roadway over the next few days, please “turn around, don’t drown.” Far too many people across the U.S. have bad outcomes due to attempting to drive over water-covered roadways.
TORNADO RISK INCREASES SATURDAY… The overall risk of tornadoes this weekend remains low, but not zero. A few tornadoes will be possible as the core of what will likely be Tropical Storm Claudette moves by our region. The greatest tornado risk will likely set up in parts of Clarke, Washington, Baldwin, and Mobile counties, although I cannot completely rule out a tornado in any of our local counties through Sunday. Please have a way to get tornado warnings this weekend and if your particular location goes under a warning, be sure to join me on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app for the latest details. More about our tornado warning policy is outlined below.
TROPICAL TORNADOES USUALLY BRIEF, BUT CAN PACK A PUNCH… The tornadoes that will likely happen due to this landfalling tropical system will likely be brief, weak, and short-lived.That sounds good, in theory, compared to the larger tornadoes we often have in the spring months each year. The problem is, if one of these smaller tornadoes affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings later today and into Saturday and Sunday just in case your specific location happens to go under a tornado warning.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALABAMA COAST AND POINTS WEST… A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including coastal areas of Baldwin and Mobile counties in southwest Alabama. In addition, the Mississippi Gulf Coast, metro New Orleans, and Lake Pontchartrain are involved in this tropical storm warning.
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE BEACHES… High wind impacts are currently not expected across any part of south Alabama or northwest Florida because of this developing tropical system. Winds could gust as high as 30-40 mph at the immediate beach zones of Alabama where the tropical storm warning is in effect but wind damage remains highly unlikely locally.
RIP CURRENT WARNING & HIGH SURF WARNING… A High Surf Warning and a Rip Current Warning is in effect for all beaches in Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you know someone that has a beach vacation planned this weekend into early next week, please let them know that the Gulf will have high waves and dangerous rip currents happening over the next few days. Rip currents have killed many people at our beaches over the years! If a red flag is flying in your beach location, please do not get into the water.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY… We are fortunate to be in somewhat of a neap tide cycle right now, thus potentially limiting coastal flooding from what it could be if we were in a higher tide cycle across our area. Minor coastal flooding may become possible later tonight, tomorrow, and into Sunday, particularly in low-lying areas of coastal Alabama.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See many more details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. I will have more updates in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day. Have a nice Friday!