ELSA LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY MONDAY AS A WEAKENED STORM… Hurricane Elsa continues to rapidly move west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea on this Saturday morning. The core of Elsa is likely to remain to the east of south Alabama and northwest Florida, putting parts of the Florida Peninsula in the main track zone where the center of the storm is likely to move. The National Hurricane Center IS forecasting Elsa to weaken explicitly in their forecast, mainly due to ongoing shear keeping the circulations a bit uneven in the atmosphere, and perhaps more importantly, the land interaction ahead of the storm. The high terrain of Haiti, Jamaica, and ultimately Cuba, will likely significantly disrupt the inner core of the storm, weakening it some. The question remains just HOW much will the storm weaken and when. Best case scenario, Elsa is disrupted significantly and becomes a remnant low pressure area that simply brings some rain to the Florida Peninsula. Worst case scenario, Elsa remains a hurricane and strengthens prior to briefly crossing Cuba and then makes a run northward along the western Gulf Coast of Florida. See all of the details concerning Elsa in this special Saturday morning edition of our RedZone Weather forecast video.
MORE SCATTERED STORMS LATER TODAY… Locally, across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Saturday, we’re expecting a continuation of our ongoing summer weather pattern with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. Rain chances will not be AS high as yesterday, but we still are expecting a few thunderstorms at times later today. Widespread severe weather is not expected today, but some of the storms could produce loud thunder at times and localized downpours of rain. High temperatures today will be in the upper-80s. Some spots may briefly hit 90 degrees this afternoon.
4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS FORECAST… Tomorrow will be quite similar to today in terms of the weather pattern. It is just about impossible to know exactly where showers and storms will develop on Sunday, which is when most municipalities will conduct their annual 4th of July fireworks displays. We know, conclusively, that storms will be around, but there simply is no way to know exactly where storms will be happening Sunday evening. I will have radar updates posted on Sunday in the RedZone Weather app.
HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL CARIBBEAN LOCALES… A Hurricane Warning continues for all of Jamaica and for parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic this morning. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for part of Cuba as well. A Tropical Storm Watch will probably be needed later tonight or on Sunday for the Florida Keys.
ELSA LIKELY TO EMERGE INTO GULF MONDAY… The center of Elsa, or perhaps what is left of Elsa, will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, most likely near the Florida Keys, on Monday. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center concerning the center of Elsa continues to show movement toward the Florida Peninsula with a landfall point possible from the Big Bend region near Tallahassee southward to Fort Myers. There is no way to pinpoint with any type of accuracy where landfall will happen. Most of the impacts of Elsa will happen near the center and EAST of the center of circulation. That means that our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will almost certainly be on the better, western side of the circulation.
OUR AREA LIKELY TO BE ON “BETTER,” WEST SIDE OF STORM… Model guidance continues to be quite consistent in suggesting impacts from Elsa happening well to our east. Confidence continues to increase that the core of Elsa, whether it is a tropical storm, hurricane, or even a remnant low pressure area will likely pass a bit to the east of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. This means that our local area will be on the “better,” west side of the storm where impacts will likely not be nearly as severe compared to the volatile eastern side of the storm. While it remains a bit too early to definitively give an “all clear” for our local area, based on ongoing model guidance, the trends over the last 24-36 hours have continued to be positive news for our local area.
APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
I normally do not produce a video on Saturday morning, but today is an exception due to the threat of Elsa. I will have more updates posted throughout the day as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great 4th of July weekend!