HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY & TUESDAY; ELSA TO PASS TO OUR EAST… Thunderstorms will likely be numerous across our area this afternoon into this evening due to prolific moisture content in the atmosphere today. We continue to track Elsa, which at the time I am writing this update very early on this Monday morning, is a tropical storm. By the time you’re reading this, there is a chance Elsa could be a hurricane right before it makes landfall along the Cuban coast. Elsa is slated to cross Cuba today and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico this evening. Elsa is expected to make landfall somewhere along the western Gulf Coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday or on Wednesday. The good news for us is that no significant local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida due to Elsa. High temperatures today will be in the mid-80s across the region. More Monday morning forecast details are below.
FIREWORKS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT… Multiple municipalities are conducting their Independence Day fireworks displays this evening since today is the observed holiday. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing tonight around 7-9PM, but unfortunately, there is simply no way to pinpoint exactly where storms will be firing up. You can keep tabs on the radar throughout the day in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK… Storms will be numerous today not because of anything associated with Elsa, located near the Cuban coastline, but rather because of a stalled frontal boundary in our area with plenty of Gulf moisture. Precipitable water values, a measure of just how much moisture is in the atmosphere, will be quite high today and tomorrow, leading to the formation of numerous storms popping up. Widespread severe storms are not expected today, but some of the storms may be loud and proud with thunder, lightning, torrential downpours, and gusty winds. No tornado risk today.
ELSA TO CROSS CUBA TODAY AND EMERGE IN GULF THIS EVENING… No real forecast changes to report with Elsa this morning as the storm will cross Cuba today and emerge over the Florida Straits into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm conditions are likely in parts of the Florida Keys near Key West tonight into Tuesday. Elsa will continue moving north before shifting to a northeasterly track by Wednesday. The system will then quickly move northeast toward the Carolinas later in the week before moving out to sea in the Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA… Parts of the Florida Keys and much of the western Gulf Coast of Florida are involved in Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings this morning. A Tropical Storm Watch extends as far north as the Anclote River. This means, at the time I am writing this update early Monday morning, that areas near Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Sarasota, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Bonita Springs, Marco Island, Naples, and the Everglades are involved. Please be aware of potential impacts from Elsa if you are traveling to the Florida Peninsula this week.
NO SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS FROM ELSA… We can now conclusively and definitively say that significant local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will certainly NOT happen due to Elsa. The storm will remain too far to our east to cause any significant impacts over the next few days. There is a real chance Elsa may cause high waves that could lead to rip currents at local beaches through the end of the week, however.
REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC BASIN QUIET… While we continue to track and monitor Elsa, it is worth noting that the remainder of the Atlantic Basin does not show any imminent signs of tropical development. No new tropical storms are forecast to form through midweek.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. I hope you have a great observed Independence Day holiday. Enjoy!