90% CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN SOUTHERN GULF… An area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche region of the southern Gulf of Mexico has a very high (90%) chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next day or so as the system slowly moves north. All major weather models show this system bringing impacts to parts of northern Mexico, Texas, and potentially even western Louisiana later this week. For now, it appears local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will remain unlikely due to this developing system, although it is too early to give a complete “all clear” just yet.
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The National Hurricane Center has issued an updated tropical discussion for this disturbance (Invest 94L) this evening. From NHC: “A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development will be possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. By late Sunday, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat then continuing across those coasts through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.”
SEVERAL OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES… We are at the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and right on cue, we are watching four other disturbances in addition to the disturbance in the Gulf. An area of low pressure near The Bahamas has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical storm as this system moves north in the days ahead. Two tropical waves are being monitored close to the African continent. Those two waves have a 40% and 50% chance, respectively, of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. Another, separate non-tropical area of low pressure near The Azores could briefly become a tropical storm later this week. Buckle up, as the core of hurricane season is in full swing over the next two weeks!
FEW SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… Overnight lows will be in the upper-60s tonight, a bit warmer compared to the last two nights when our area enjoyed slightly below average temperatures. We are expecting a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up across the region on Sunday. We’ll call it a 30% chance of rain. High temperatures will be around 90° on Sunday.
APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a nice Saturday evening!