NICE, WARM WEEK TO CONTINUE; RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT… Plenty of sunshine is expected on this Tuesday as our quiet, warm weather pattern continues. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s today. More nice, warm days are ahead through Friday. Our area will have a cold front cross the region this weekend. Rain will be possible late Friday into Saturday ahead of the front passing through. Temperatures will return to much more seasonal values by early next week when highs will be in the 70s. A few more Tuesday morning forecast notes are below.
WARM TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY; COOLER TEMPS BY SUNDAY… Our high temperatures over the next several days will remain above our climatological norms for this time of year. Highs will continue to be in the mid- to upper-80s. A cold front will pass through our area Saturday into Sunday, knocking highs into the 70s early next week. Morning lows will likely be in the 50s in many spots with upper-40s not out of the question for Monday morning.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES… The tropical wave we have been tracking over the last two days has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. From NHC: “A tropical wave located about 350 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development on Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on Wednesday.”
TROPICS: DISTURBANCE NEAR HISPANIOLA… There is a 20% chance of a tropical storm forming in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, in a few days as a tropical wave moves north. From NHC: “Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea has decreased since yesterday. Environmental conditions are not expected to support development of this system for the next day or two. However, some gradual development is possible beginning on Wednesday when the system nears the southeastern Bahamas. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days.”
GULF IS QUIET… No tropical storm issues are expected in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days. It is not unusual to have a brief ramp up of sorts in tropical activity in the Gulf in mid-October. I would not be surprised if we had one or two more “home grown” tropical systems that form in the Gulf or the western Caribbean Sea in the weeks ahead. That possibility seems fairly muted, at the moment, however. Good news!
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See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!