7:14PM October 22, 2021

SEVERE WEATHER SETUP AHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY… Our first severe weather risk of the fall severe weather season will set up during the middle part of the upcoming week, specifically on Wednesday, October 27. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Deep South in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. Tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be the concerns. This risk zone is a fairly uncommon “Day 6” outlook, valid 5 days from now. This highlights the increased model confidence in the potential for severe storms, but it says nothing about the intensity of the storms. We won’t know exactly how strong or severe these storms will be until we get into early next week. NOW is the time to start thinking about your severe weather safety plan. Research studies prove time and time again that folks that have a plan of action AHEAD OF severe weather events have the best outcomes. More Friday evening details are below.

WHAT IS A LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK?… If you know someone that is new to our local area, please pass this info to them as it is important we make as many folks aware as possible about the potential severe weather risk setting up. If you are new to the area or need a refresher as to what a “Level 2 risk” is, that is understandable as our area has not had a formal severe weather risk in quite some time. Basically, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issues convective outlooks everyday. These outlooks have five risk levels, telling us the areas and zones that should be most concerned for severe storms. In this case, we have a Level 2 (out of 5) risk setting up for Wednesday, October 27. The risk area can and WILL change in the days ahead and outlook upgrades or downgrades may be possible. Levels 2, 3, 4, and 5 risk days are the ones that warrant our attention, particularly risk zones driven by a tornado threat. We don’t know hazard specifics just yet. Please check back in early next week for the very latest information.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… All of southern Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. This means we all have a risk of experiencing severe storms on Wednesday, perhaps into early Thursday morning. This Level 2 risk zone currently includes Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear, Seminole, Gateswood, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid, Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill, Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, and Malcolm.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH… Just outside of our local area, we note that a big chunk of the Deep South is also involved in this Level 2 risk zone, including areas near New Orleans (LA), Baton Rouge (LA), Houma (LA), Slidell (LA), Hattiesburg (MS), Jackson (MS), Meridian (MS), McComb (MS), Biloxi (MS), Pascagoula (MS), Butler, Demopolis, Linden, Sweet Water, Camden, Luverne, Livingston, Eutaw, Tuscaloosa, Marion, Selma, Centreville, Brent, Hayneville, Prattville, Clanton, Montgomery, Wetumpka, Lake Martin, Auburn, Tuskegee, Phenix City, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Geneva, Samson, Daleville, Eufaula, Dothan, Abbeville, Seaside, Freeport, DeFuniak Springs, Santa Rosa Beach, Bonifay, Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Blountstown, Marianna, Tallahassee, Albany (GA), Columbus (GA), and surrounding areas.

STORM MODES TBD; TORNADOES POSSIBLE… It remains too early to know exactly what storm modes will set up. If we have discrete cells develop out ahead of a line of storms, the tornado risk may be a bit higher. If, however, we have a line of storms move through, the damaging wind threat would be the greatest concern. I will have updates on this as we know more throughout the weekend.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have updates posted throughout the weekend in the RedZone Weather app. Have a wonderful Friday evening!

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