CLEARING SKIES TODAY; SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK… Lingering showers this morning will move out today, giving way to clearing skies this evening. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny ahead of our severe weather risk setting up for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. A strong cold front will likely produce a line of storms and perhaps discrete storms out ahead of the line that could produce all severe weather hazards. This means tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding will all be possible Wednesday night. We encourage everyone to take a few minutes today or tomorrow to brush up on your severe weather safety plan. Knowing where you would go and what you would do if a tornado warning is issued for your specific location is critical. We will almost certainly have more severe weather events in the coming weeks and months. This is round 1 of our fall severe weather season. More Monday morning forecast details are below.
RAIN CLEARS OUT THIS MORNING… A few showers are on the way out this morning to our southeast. Cloud coverage will decrease throughout the day. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s today, which means temperatures remain statistically well above our climatological normal high temperature for this time of year.
MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY… Tomorrow will be a day “sandwiched” between the weather systems, meaning mostly sunny skies are likely throughout the day. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s and near 80 in most spots.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY… Most of the daytime hours on Wednesday will likely be dry. Cloud coverage will increase from southwest to northeast. Rain chances will increase in the afternoon hours when scattered showers and storms will be possible. We note that some weather models do show a low-end chance of a few stronger to severe storms Wednesday afternoon, although confidence in that idea remains fairly low. This is something we will be monitoring over the next 48 hours.
The following bits of info remain on point from my previous forecast discussion last evening.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Strong to severe storms will likely set up to our west during the daytime hours of Wednesday. Our severe weather risk in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will happen from 7PM Wednesday to 7AM on Thursday. This means that the risk is predominately in the overnight hours. Please have a way to get warnings Wednesday night before you go to sleep. We will be able to get much more specific about specific timing in the days ahead. For now, 7PM Wednesday to 7AM Thursday remains the 12 hour window when severe storms are most likely to happen.
MAIN THREAT LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS; TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Damaging “straight line” winds will probably end up being the main risk on Wednesday evening locally, although parameters do support the potential for a few tornadoes as well. Sometimes surprises happen in these QLCS-driven events. You can have one, singular supercell that produces a long track tornado or a short, distinctive path of large hail. Also, isolated areas of flash flooding can set up. Basically, all modes of severe weather will be possible Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. It cannot be stressed enough that everyone needs to have a way to get warnings during this event.
A LEVEL 2 RISK IS THE STANDARD “SLIGHT” RISK… Everyday, the Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks to help meteorologists identify and understand severe weather hazards that may happen across the U.S. The convective outlooks use a numbered risk-based system. The Level 1 (out of 5) risk is the low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone where severe storms could happen but are not as likely. On the other end of the scale, a Level 5 (out of 5) risk day means a tornado outbreak or extreme wind event is almost certain. Level 4 and Level 5 risk days are quite uncommon. The Level 2 risk means that a few severe storms may happen, including the potential for tornadoes. The fact is on MOST Level 2 risk days, MOST locales do not have major issues. However, this is not always the case. The Flomaton-Century EF3 tornado that happened on February 15, 2016 happened on a “Level 2 risk day.” Whether the risk is a Level 1 or Level 5 risk day, it is so important to have a way to get urgent weather warnings!
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY… One of the contributing reasons we are having our first severe weather setup of the fall severe weather season is a cold front pushing into the Deep South later this week. This front is expected to bring in much cooler, much drier air into our region by Friday afternoon. High temperatures by Friday will only be in the upper-60s with low temperatures in the 40s by Saturday morning. The upcoming weekend will be cool and dry.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!