SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING; RAIN CHANCES RISE THIS EVENING… Severe storms, including tornadoes, will become possible late this evening into Thursday morning as a cold front approaches our area from the west. Most, if not all, of the daytime hours today will be mostly dry with only a few spotty showers and storms around. Rain chances will rise later this evening, after 5PM. A few strong to marginally severe storms may become possible in parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties after 6PM. The main 12 hour window for severe storms in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 8PM tonight to 8AM Thursday. The core window for severe storms will be from 11PM to 7PM. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to get urgent weather warnings tonight into Thursday morning. I will have updates posted throughout the night in the RedZone Weather app and of course, per our usual, we will go into live video coverage if and when tornado warnings are needed. After the storms overnight into Thursday, we will likely have lingering showers late Thursday into early Friday. A gorgeous weekend with cooler temperatures is ahead.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ADDED FOR LOUISIANA… Shortly after I produced this video earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center added a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone for parts of central Louisiana, including Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, New Iberia, Lafayette, and Houma. The tornado risk will be maximized later today in these areas.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MOST LOCALLY… We have a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk for much of our local area tonight, meaning scattered severe storms will be the concern. The northern and eastern part of our area remains in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. Regardless of which risk zone your specific community is involved in today, we all have a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts tonight into Thursday morning.
DRY WEEKEND AHEAD… We get a “consolation prize” of sorts this weekend as mostly sunny skies are expected for Saturday and Sunday. I suspect a few showers will linger into Thursday and early Friday morning but clearing skies are expected late in the day on Friday. Highs on Friday will only be in the mid- to upper-60s (!) as cool, dry air surges in behind the advancing cold front.
A few review paragraphs are below. The information from my post last evening remains on point.
WHAT TO EXPECT – HOUR-BY-HOUR… Most communities across south Alabama and northwest Florida will simply have heavy rain at times with occasional thunder tonight into Thursday morning. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe, however. Most won’t, but inevitably with this kind of atmospheric setup, there is a chance for a few severe storms capable of producing a tornado or two and damaging straight line winds. Most of the daytime hours today will be dry with only spotty showers and storms around. There is a low-end risk of a few severe storms in Mobile and Baldwin counties and points west from 5PM to when the “main event” starts later this evening. Rain chances will increase slightly from 6PM to 9PM, but even in that 3 hour window, I think most of south Alabama and northwest Florida has a good chance to be dry. Rain and storms will grow in coverage across the region after 9PM with a large batch of storms likely to cross the area in the overnight hours. These storms are the ones that have the greatest chance of being severe. This means you must have a way to get tornado warnings in the overnight hours before you go to sleep tonight.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY… The main 12 hour window has not changed for when severe storms are expected: 8PM tonight to 8AM Thursday looks to be the 12 hour window for when storms are MOST likely to happen. The core of that risk will happen between 11PM and 7AM on Thursday morning. This means that the risk is predominately in the overnight hours. Again, to emphasize, please have a way to get warnings tonight before you go to sleep. Storms will enter from the west and gradually move across the region, likely exiting to our east no later than 8-9AM.
GUSTY WINDS & TORNADOES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS… The primary severe weather hazards on tonight into Thursday will be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado risk will almost certainly be maximized in areas closer to the immediate coast, thus if you are in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, your tornado risk may be just a bit higher compared to areas farther inland. MOST communities will simply have rain at times tonight into Thursday. That is what you should expect, with rain for most and MOST (not all) of the severe weather issues being to our west. The concern is that one or two isolated severe storms may happen ahead of an advancing line of storms tonight that may produce a few tornadoes or gusty winds. In addition, the line of storms that moves through could produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Isolated instances of large hail and flash flooding may also be possible, although those hazard risks are less compared to the damaging wind and tornado risks.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the day and into the night in the RedZone Weather app. Join me in live tornado warning coverage if warnings are needed for our local area. Have a great day!