SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AHEAD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING; LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK LOCALLY… Strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail will be concerns across much of the Deep South on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning as a substantial risk of severe storms sets up, centered just to our west across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded east-central Louisiana and much of the southern half of Mississippi into their Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zone valid for TUESDAY. Much of west Alabama is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone valid Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with the rest of us across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida being in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. The big takeaway with all of this is that a potentially major severe weather setup looks likely Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Conditions will be ripe for tornadoes, some of which could be strong or violent, particularly across Louisiana and Mississippi. Despite our local area not being in the “bullseye” zone right now, a Level 3 risk zone is in place locally, meaning we must be ready for severe weather issues Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A few more Sunday midday forecast notes are below.
FIRST LOOK: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… Unfortunately, for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, this will likely be a severe weather risk that sets up predominantly in the overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday. 7PM on Tuesday to 7AM on Wednesday looks to be the 12 hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely to happen locally. I will be able to provide a “core risk window” for our local area tomorrow. Note that the severe weather risk will be maximized earlier, particularly during the daytime hours of Tuesday, to our west across Louisiana and Mississippi. Storms will then advance eastward into our area in the evening and overnight hours.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR WEST… It is quite uncommon to see a Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone introduced 2-3 days out from when a severe weather event is expected to happen. This underscores the confidence that the Storm Prediction Center has that a major severe weather event is likely on Tuesday. Right now, parts of Louisiana and Mississippi are exclusively involved in this Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone. This is the zone where strong tornadoes will be most likely to happen Tuesday. This Level 4 risk zone includes places like Baton Rouge (LA), Jackson (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), Clinton (MS), Pearl (MS), Natchez (MS), McComb (MS) and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… Surrounding the higher Level 4 risk zone, we find a larger area of the Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk where tornadoes (perhaps some strong) and damaging winds are still likely to happen on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This zone includes parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Sumter, Greene, Hale, Tuscaloosa, and Pickens counties in west Alabama.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR THE REST OF US… Outside of the higher risk zones, everyone else across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This is the zone where scattered severe storms, including a few tornadoes, may happen. Confidence is less certain, compared to the higher risk zones described above, but atmospheric conditions will support the potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. This Level 2 risk zone includes parts of Monroe, Wilcox, Butler, Crenshaw, Conecuh, Covington, Coffee, Pike, Geneva, Walton, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Baldwin, and Escambia (AL) counties.
WHAT TO EXPECT – NOW THROUGH TUESDAY… The good news is before we get to the significant round of severe storms expected Tuesday into Wednesday morning, we have a nice streak of weather that continues across our local area. Temperatures are in the 70s on this Sunday afternoon with full sunshine expected to continue throughout the day. Overnight lows will be in the low-40s by 6AM Monday ahead of highs in the upper-70s tomorrow with mostly sunny skies throughout the day likely on Monday. Monday night should be dry as well with lows around 56. Rain coverage will increase throughout the day on Tuesday when scattered showers and storms will become possible. There is a low-end chance that a few storms may develop Tuesday afternoon that could become severe, although the odds of this happening seem rather low as of now. The severe weather event locally will maximize Tuesday in the late evening hours into early Wednesday morning.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have a fresh, detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Monday) morning. Until then, plenty more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Sunday afternoon!