SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW NIGHT; MAIN CONCERNS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging straight line wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding will become possible tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The “bullseye zone” of this severe weather risk will likely set up to our west across parts of southern Mississippi and Louisiana where a Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone continues to be in place. West Alabama remains involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone, while the rest of us across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida continue to be involved in the Level 2 risk zone. It is important to note that tornadoes and damaging winds CAN and DO happen in the lower risk zones in these severe weather events, thus it is imperative we all have a way to get warnings tomorrow into tomorrow night. A few more Tuesday evening forecast notes are below.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… The first batch of storms is expected to develop across east Mississippi and west Alabama in the early afternoon hours. Noon to 4PM will be when these first, isolated storms are likely to form. Tornadoes will be possible in this time frame. Then, the larger, more significant round of storms is expected to move from west to east across our area from 9PM to 6AM. Unfortunately, this does look like another overnight severe weather event for most of us. We encourage everyone to have a reliable way to receive urgent weather warnings Tuesday into Tuesday night. Please have a device handy like a NOAA Weather Radio capable of waking you up if a tornado warning is needed for your specific location.
The midday convective outlook from earlier largely is identical to previous updates, meaning forecast confidence remains high in timing and placement of storms tomorrow into Wednesday.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR WEST… Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi are involved in this Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone. This is the zone where strong tornadoes will be most likely to happen Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are also LIKELY in some of the storms that happen in this zone. This Level 4 risk zone includes places like Baton Rouge (LA), Jackson (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), Clinton (MS), Pearl (MS), Natchez (MS), McComb (MS) and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… Surrounding the higher Level 4 risk zone, we have a larger area of the Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk where tornadoes (perhaps some strong) and damaging winds are still likely to happen on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This zone includes parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Sumter, Greene, Hale, Tuscaloosa, and Pickens counties in west Alabama.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR THE REST OF US… Outside of the higher risk zones, everyone else across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This is the zone where scattered severe storms, including a few tornadoes, may happen. Confidence is less certain, compared to the higher risk zones described above, but atmospheric conditions will support the potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. This Level 2 risk zone includes parts of Monroe, Wilcox, Butler, Crenshaw, Conecuh, Covington, Coffee, Pike, Geneva, Walton, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Baldwin, and Escambia (AL) counties.
WHAT TO EXPECT – TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING… Tuesday morning is expected to be rather quiet with temperatures quickly rising into the upper-60s by late morning. A few thunderstorms may develop across west Alabama in the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms may be strong or severe and there is a chance of tornadoes, gusty winds, and hail in these storms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. The more pronounced chance of severe storms will happen in the late evening hours of Tuesday into the early morning hours of Wednesday when a complex of storms is expected to move in from our west. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding will be the main concerns in this overnight batch of storms. Storms will move out from west to east throughout the morning hours of Wednesday.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have updates posted throughout the evening and into the overnight hours in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7AM tomorrow morning with the very latest information. Have a nice Monday evening!