SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY P.M. INTO WEDNESDAY; MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY… Tornadoes will yet again become a concern tomorrow (Tuesday) in areas to our west followed by a growing risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Fortunately, we are not expecting significant weather issues on this Monday. Mostly sunny skies are expected until this evening when cloud coverage begins to increase. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s today. The severe weather risk shaping up for Tuesday could be substantial in areas to our west across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi where the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone. Strong, long-tracked tornadoes will be a significant concern. A few more Monday morning forecast details are below.
MAINLY SUNNY TODAY; SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… Skies will be mostly sunny until the afternoon hours on this Monday. Cloud coverage will start to increase from west to east later today. A few showers may become possible as early as Tuesday morning ahead of a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon hours. Highs on Tuesday will again be in the upper-70s.
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING… Severe thunderstorms will become possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including tornadoes (perhaps including a strong tornado or two, particularly over west Alabama), damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding. If thunderstorms train over the same areas, flash flooding could become a serious problem in some areas.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… 7PM on Tuesday to 7AM on Wednesday looks to be the 12 hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely to happen locally. Note that the severe weather risk will be maximized earlier, particularly during the daytime hours of Tuesday, to our west across Louisiana and Mississippi. Storms will then advance eastward into our area in the evening and overnight hours. Unfortunately, this does look like another overnight severe weather event for most of us, thus it is critical that we all have a device capable of waking us up if a tornado warning is needed for our specific location.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR WEST… Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi are involved in this Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone. This is the zone where strong tornadoes will be most likely to happen Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are also LIKELY in some of the storms that happen in this zone. This Level 4 risk zone includes places like Baton Rouge (LA), Jackson (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), Clinton (MS), Pearl (MS), Natchez (MS), McComb (MS) and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… Surrounding the higher Level 4 risk zone, we have a larger area of the Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk where tornadoes (perhaps some strong) and damaging winds are still likely to happen on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This zone includes parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Sumter, Greene, Hale, Tuscaloosa, and Pickens counties in west Alabama.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR THE REST OF US… Outside of the higher risk zones, everyone else across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This is the zone where scattered severe storms, including a few tornadoes, may happen. Confidence is less certain, compared to the higher risk zones described above, but atmospheric conditions will support the potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. This Level 2 risk zone includes parts of Monroe, Wilcox, Butler, Crenshaw, Conecuh, Covington, Coffee, Pike, Geneva, Walton, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Baldwin, and Escambia (AL) counties.
STORMS EXIT WEDNESDAY… Severe storms should be to our east by the time we get to midday on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the low-70s on Wednesday afternoon with clearing skies likely by the late afternoon and early evening hours. Much cooler air filters in behind the advancing cold front and lows by Thursday morning will again be in the 40s.
BETTER WEATHER AHEAD FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND THE WEEKEND… We finally get a streak of sunny, nice, mild days starting on Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 70s with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. That is climatologically “on point” for this of year. Sunshine is expected Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great start to your week!