MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT… Severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding, will become possible this afternoon and then again this evening into the overnight hours. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings throughout the day and into the night as there is a high chance warnings will be needed. The Storm Prediction Center notes in their early morning text discussion that an EF3+ tornado may be possible today in the Level 4 (out of 5) risk area, which extends broadly from Louisiana through southern Mississippi and now into west Alabama. The first round of storms may fire up as early as midday into the early afternoon hours ahead of a larger batch of storms tonight into early Wednesday morning. I’ve got a full rundown of what you can expect, below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY… The first batch of storms is expected to develop across east Mississippi and west Alabama in the early afternoon hours today. Noon to 4PM will be when these first, isolated storms are likely to form. Tornadoes will be possible in this time frame. Then, the larger, more significant round of storms is expected to move from west to east across our area from 9PM to 6AM tomorrow morning. Unfortunately, this does look like another overnight severe weather event for most of us. We encourage everyone to have a reliable way to receive urgent weather warnings today into tonight. Please have a device handy like a NOAA Weather Radio capable of waking you up if a tornado warning is needed for your specific location.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST ALABAMA… The tornado and large hail risk will ramp up first in any discrete, isolated supercell thunderstorms that form this afternoon into the evening hours. The prime location for this happen appears to be first across east Mississippi and west Alabama. This first round of storms will develop between Noon and 4PM and gradually shift northeast.
SECOND & FINAL ROUND OF STORMS TO IMPACT ENTIRE REGION… The damaging wind risk, in addition to an ongoing risk of tornadoes and large hail, will happen later this evening extending into the overnight hours as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms crosses our region from west to east. This batch of storms is expected to exit our region to the east in the morning hours of Wednesday.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Parts of Choctaw, Clarke, and Washington counties in west Alabama are now involved in the Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for today into tonight. Locally, this includes Chatom, Millry, Vinegar Bend, Frankville, St. Stephens, Coffeeville, Salitpa, Campbell, Woods Bluff, Gilbertown, Silas, Toxey, Butler, and Needham in west Alabama. Waynesboro (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), McComb (MS), Brookhaven (MS), Jackson (MS), Meridian (MS), Natchez (MS), Baton Rouge (LA), Hammond (LA), Lafayette (LA), Lake Charles (LA), and Alexandria (LA) are also involved in this significant Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone. A Level 4 risk means that severe thunderstorms are likely to be long-lived, widespread, and intense. In this case, a regional outbreak of tornadoes will likely happen today, including the risk of a tornado or two that may be a strong or violent tornado (EF3+).
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Surrounding the Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone, much of west Alabama is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. A Level 3 risk means that numerous severe storms will be possible, including some storms that may be intense. A significant (EF2+) tornado or two could happen in this zone. Locally, the Level 3 risk zone includes Mobile, Wilmer, Dawes, Dees, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Tanner Williams, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Axis, Tensaw, Stockton, Calvert, McIntosh, Wagerville, Leroy, Jackson, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Fulton, Whatley, Alma, Bashi, Monroeville, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Keith, and surrounding areas. The Level 3 risk extends farther to the north and west as well and includes places like Camden, Demopolis, Sweet Water, Greensboro, Eutaw, Livingston, York, Aliceville, Starkville (MS), Vicksburg (MS), Fort Polk (LA), New Iberia (LA), Houma (LA), New Orleans (LA), Slidell (LA), Biloxi (MS), Pass Christian (MS), Lucedale (MS), and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK… If you did not see your hometown mentioned above, odds are you are involved in the standard, Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for this severe weather potential setting up for today into tonight. A Level 2 risk means that scattered severe storms, including a few tornadoes, will be possible. This Level 2 risk zone includes Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Theodore, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Foley, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, Orange Beach, Lillian, Gateswood, Bay Minette, Seminole, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid, Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Old Texas, Frisco City, Excel, and Beatrice. We also note other cities in Alabama are involved in the Level 2 risk, such as Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Selma, Clanton, Centreville, Jasper, Fayette, Hamilton, Hayneville, and Luverne.
STORMS DEPART THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING… Severe storms should be to our east by the time we get to midday on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the low-70s on Wednesday afternoon with clearing skies likely by the late afternoon and early evening hours. Much cooler air filters in behind the advancing cold front and lows by Thursday morning will again be in the 40s.
BETTER WEATHER AHEAD FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND THE WEEKEND… We finally get a streak of sunny, nice, mild days starting on Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 70s with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. That is climatologically “on point” for this of year. Sunshine is expected Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next 24 hours in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. We will go into our live, uninterrupted video coverage if/when a tornado warning is needed locally. Have a good Tuesday and please stay safe!