SIGNIFICANT TORNADO, DAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT; QUITE WINDY TODAY… Severe thunderstorms, including a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes and particularly intense damaging winds, will be possible this evening into the overnight hours across the entirety of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Please have a way to hear warnings tonight. If/when you get a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning, get sheltered. The storms tonight will be moving very quickly (50-60 mph forward movement likely!), thus it is important to take action WHEN you get a warning and not try to “see the storm” coming in by looking outside. I can assure you, with these storms happening at night, you will not be able to see any tornadoes or damaging wind. These will be potentially significant, fast-moving tornadoes that create damage paths that may be many miles long. I am also increasingly concerned about the damaging wind potential. Please take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously tonight! Straight line winds may be destructive, with the potential to knock down trees and power lines. A few Wednesday morning forecast details are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY… This evening into early Thursday morning remains the primary severe weather risk will likely set up across south Alabama and northwest Florida. 6PM this evening to 6AM Thursday is the 12 hour window when severe weather threat will likely maximize across our area. 9PM to 3AM looks to be the 6 hour “core risk” window for local areas. Again, please have a way to get warnings overnight. We all need a device that can wake us up if a tornado warning is needed locally.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include nearly all of our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zone. A Level 4 (out of 5) risk means that long-lasting, intense thunderstorms will be possible. The risk of significant or strong tornadoes is elevated. The risk of damaging straight line winds is high. Power outages could become numerous if a severe line of storms starts knocking down trees across the region.
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA TODAY… Gusty winds are going to happen well in advance of the thunderstorms at times today. Sustained wind gusts of 20-30 mph may be possible with wind gusts of 35-45 mph being possible, particularly this afternoon into this evening. The entire state of Alabama and all of northwest Florida is now involved in a Wind Advisory through today and into tonight.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING… While we are starting the day dry across the region, scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage, particularly across west Alabama, in the afternoon and early evening hours. Most of these storms will be under severe limits, but severe storms are not completely out of the question this evening before 6PM. The risk IS low, but it is not zero. IF any storms can manage to break the cap inversion in place early on, a strong tornado or two could happen this afternoon or this evening across west Alabama. Most of the rain and storms will happen with the main batch of storms slated to happen after 6PM.
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK TODAY TO OUR WEST AND TONIGHT LOCALLY… Thunderstorms will develop across Louisiana and Mississippi first today and gradually move east throughout the day. Storms will move into west-central Alabama first and pose a risk of fast-moving, quick-hitting, strong (EF2+) tornadoes. These tornadoes may be moving at 50-60 mph in some cases. Very quick moving storms today into tonight. The significant tornado risk will increase tonight across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Please have a way to get warnings throughout the night!
INTENSE, DAMAGING WIND EVENT POSSIBLE… I am also quite concerned about the potential for damaging straight line winds that could be widespread across the local area. Power outages will quickly become possible tonight as an intense line of strong to severe thunderstorms moves in from the west, if storms start knocking down trees. The likelihood of power outages is a bit higher with this severe weather risk compared to the last few events. We encourage everyone to charge your devices (phone, tablets, iPads, etc.) TODAY before we get to this severe weather potential in the overnight hours.
RAIN & STORMS MOVE OUT THURSDAY MORNING; DRIER THU. AFTERNOON… Rain and thunderstorms will clear out of our area to the east tomorrow (Thursday) morning, likely before 8AM. Skies will gradually clear and mostly sunny skies are expected by the afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and near 80 in most spots..
DRY FRIDAY AHEAD OF MORE RAIN & STORMS SATURDAY… Friday is expected to be a mostly sunny day ahead of more rain and thunderstorms being likely at times on Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will be in the mid-70s. It seems like any strong to severe thunderstorms that happen on Saturday may be confined to the northern Gulf of Mexico offshore or perhaps near the immediate coast. Let’s get through the severe weather event today and we will start focusing on Saturday in the forecast video tomorrow morning. Regardless of any severe weather potential, we are expecting scattered showers at times on Saturday.
MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY… A nice Sunday and Monday are ahead with high temperatures near the 80 degree mark each day. Mostly sunny skies are expected in the daytime hours with mostly clear skies each night.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… I’m aware this is the last thing you want to hear as we stare down a major severe weather potential today into tonight. ANOTHER, separate severe weather risk may set up on Tuesday of the upcoming week (April 5). The local National Weather Service office in Mobile states it best in their forecast discussion: “Model guidance continues to show the potential for another possibly strong storm system over the Southeast next Tuesday; however, there remains disagreement between model solutions. Because of this and since the event is far out in time, it is difficult to discuss any specifics at this point. We will continue to monitor trends and how this system evolves in the coming days. Please stay tuned and weather aware, as this time of year is prime time for severe weather in the South.”
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have ongoing updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. We will go into uninterrupted live video coverage later this evening if/when tornado warnings are required for our local area. Have a nice Wednesday and please stay safe tonight!