HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105° TODAY; FEW POP-UP STORMS TODAY… Hot temperatures with plenty of humidity in the air means that heat index values will be sky high today with some spots reaching the 105-110° range this afternoon. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely at times this evening, but I expect most communities to remain dry today. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop tomorrow as instability values across our local area will be elevated. Widespread severe weather is not expected today or tomorrow and the overall tornado risk, fortunately, remains near zero through tomorrow. Looking ahead to the Labor Day Weekend, conditions will be quite wet with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms being likely each day. While we are tracking two disturbances in the tropics, neither of the disturbances are expected to ever impact south Alabama or northwest Florida. A few more Wednesday morning forecast notes are below.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW… Thunderstorms that pop up on Thursday have a chance of briefly becoming strong or even marginally severe. The atmosphere will be similar to a tinderbox with ample instability likely at multiple levels, meaning some of thunderstorms will probably become strong at times. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low-90s. Most of the storms tomorrow will happen in the afternoon and evening hours.
WET LABOR DAY WEEKEND LIKELY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely each day as we go into the Labor Day holiday weekend. Be sure to have an indoor backup plan ready for any events you may have scheduled outside as storms will pop up quickly each day. I expect MOST of the storms to be diurnally driven, meaning storms will most likely fire up in the afternoon and evening hours.
TROPICS: TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE ANTILLES… There remains a high (80-90%) chance a tropical storm forms northeast of the Lesser Antilles over the next few days. Longer range weather models show this system potentially ramping up to hurricane status in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean likely near or just south of Bermuda. Regardless of if development happens, this system will not directly affect south Alabama or northwest Florida.
TROPICS: TROPCIAL DISTURBANCE NEAR AFRICA… A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized clouds and thunderstorms. A general northwesterly movement of this tropical wave is expected. There is a low to medium chance this system briefly becomes a tropical storm before conditions are expected to become more hostile for further development in a few days. Good news!
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See all the details in your Wednesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!