8:10PM January 23, 2023

TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY… It is the last thing that we want to hear but we have an overnight severe weather risk setting up for tomorrow (Tuesday) night into early Wednesday morning. Tornadoes, including potentially a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes will be possible along with a heightened chance of damaging straight line winds. In addition to the severe weather risk, we also have a risk of strong winds out ahead of any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours LONG before storms actually arrive. The local National Weather Service includes all local counties in an uncommon High Wind Watch as 25-40 mph winds will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Everyone should have multiple ways to hear urgent weather warnings tomorrow night BEFORE you go to sleep as the overall severe weather risk will maximize during the middle of the night. A few more Monday evening forecast notes are below.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY… This severe weather risk will almost exclusively happen in the overnight hours of tomorrow (Tuesday) night into early Wednesday morning. Midnight to 7AM Wednesday is the seven hour time frame when strong to severe thunderstorms are most likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. We need folks to have a device (like a NOAA Weather Radio) or a mobile phone with Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) enabled. The WEA alerts are the AMBER Alert-style noises that are extremely loud and are issued by the National Weather Service. You’ll need something that can wake you up in case your specific location goes under a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning.

A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… It seems like this has become an all too common occurrence but the fact is we are looking at a situation where we have a conditional risk of a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes being possible across the local area. If discrete, isolated supercell thunderstorms can form tomorrow night, the tornado risk will end up being quite a bit higher compared to the possibility where surface-based instability remains offshore in the northern Gulf instead. We still don’t have a clear idea on just how far this “high octane fuel” for thunderstorms will move inland just yet. That will determine a lot about just how strong thunderstorms will be.

HIGH WIND WATCH; DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY… I am growing particularly concerned about the threat of widespread tree damage and power outages tomorrow night. Pressure gradient winds *out ahead of the thunderstorms* will be possible tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. This potential for 25-40 mph sustained wind has prompted an uncommon High Wind Watch for ALL local counties. Atmospheric parameters will be highly supportive of damaging wind gusts as thunderstorms pass through our local area early Wednesday morning.

LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include a large chunk of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. This means that scattered severe thunderstorms are likely with a chance of a few particularly intense storms. Strong (EF2+) tornadoes will be possible under certain scenarios.

DON’T BE MISLED BY NICE CONDITIONS TOMORROW… The daytime hours of Tuesday will be dry and fairly nice. Temperatures will be in the low-60s by the early afternoon hours in many communities. Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day. The severe weather risk will not happen until long after sunset and likely after 10PM in nearly all local communities.

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

My next detailed forecast video and text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Monday evening!

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