STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY; SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK TO OUR WEST… Severe thunderstorms are likely to form to our west on Thursday before ultimately moving into our area and points east on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has included a large chunk of the Deep South in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk valid for Thursday. Our severe weather risk across south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen on Friday, most likely in the morning hours. While the overall tornado and severe weather risk will probably maximize to our west across parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas, much of our local area is now involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid into Friday morning. This means that a few scattered severe storms may become possible. The risk locally is not certain, but the dynamic ingredients to support a few stronger storms will exist.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – FRIDAY MORNING… 4AM to 10AM looks to be the main six hour window when strong to severe storms may happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. It is important to note that the risk may extend into the afternoon hours for communities farther to our east across parts of east Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. I would not be shocked, based on the parameters I’m observing, if the overall threat across Georgia into the Carolinas increases on Friday.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR WEST… The core risk of severe weather later this week will likely set up across parts of east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, far southwestern Tennessee, and across much of Mississippi. These are the zones involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk valid on Thursday. Outlook upgrades will be possible in these areas. Folks in Dallas (TX), Tyler (TX), Waco (TX), Shreveport (LA), Monroe (LA), Alexandria (LA), Jackson (MS), Oxford (MS), Greenville (MS), Little Rock (AR), and Memphis (TN) should pay close attention to this evolving severe weather risk. Strong tornadoes may be possible in or near these metro areas.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK LOCALLY… Much of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Right now, it seems like the greatest chance of severe storms will probably happen in the 4AM to 10AM time frame locally. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail will be possible in the stronger storms that happen locally. While our area may not be in the maximum threat area, ALL of our local area is involved in severe weather risk zones. This means that we all need good, reliable ways to hear urgent weather warnings on Friday morning.
QUITE WARM TODAY AND THURSDAY… I expect much of the daytime hours of Wednesday and Thursday to be dry. There was some concern that Thursday may feature scattered showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the main severe weather event but the overall risk of severe weather has shifted “slower,” meaning storms are expected to come through on Friday morning. This means that scattered showers may be possible late Thursday evening. Most, if not all, of the daytime hours of Thursday, however, should remain dry. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s tomorrow and on Thursday. Way too warm for early March!
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD… After storms clear out of our area around midday on Friday, cooler, drier air will filter into the region behind the advancing cold front. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid-70s with morning lows in the mid-40s on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Full sunshine is expected on both Saturday and Sunday.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have much more information in the daily video and long form text discussion that will be posted tomorrow morning by 7:15AM. Be sure to join me then for the latest info. Have a nice Tuesday evening!