VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SUNDAY; UPDATE ON SNOW POTENTIAL MIDWEEK… The overall confidence in the potential for snow and mixed precipitation remains low, but confidence is off the charts high in the idea of FRIGID temperatures coming to south Alabama and northwest Florida early next week. This map highlights the projected wind chill values at 6AM Monday. Widespread wind chill values of 10-17° are likely across our local area with single digit wind chill numbers for places as far south as Auburn, Clanton, and Tuscaloosa. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will struggle to get out of the mid 30s, meaning there is a real chance some communities further inland locally may not get above freezing during the daytime hours. We strongly encourage everyone to complete all excessive cold preparations TOMORROW ahead of the rain set to arrive tomorrow night into Saturday.
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY… Scattered showers will become possible tomorrow (Friday) night ahead of rain and thunderstorms becoming more likely on Saturday morning. The greatest chance of a few thunderstorms will happen near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches on Saturday. The overall risk of any severe weather (tornadoes and damaging wind gusts) with this system is near zero due to the lack of any surface-based instability.
FRIGID AIR MASS MOVES IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… The system responsible for the rain on Saturday is a cold front that will cross our area from northwest to southeast on Saturday night into Sunday. Sharply colder air pushes in behind the advancing front. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s on Sunday afternoon with a brisk northwesterly wind. Temperatures will nose dive into the 20s on Sunday night into early Monday with wind chill values in the mid 10s by 6AM Monday. Highs on Monday may stay in the 30s all day.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ODDS FOR SNOW; UNCERTAINTY LOOMS LARGE… Confidence continues to be quite low surrounding what exactly will happen toward the middle part of the upcoming week. There is a chance parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida could have snow/mixed precipitation/rain around Wednesday of the upcoming week. Details, putting it mildly, remain all but impossible to sort out, which is typical with snow systems that affect the Deep South. If anything, the ensemble trends have become a bit more supportive for snow across parts of our region next week, but that really does not mean too much at this stage. Further trends tomorrow may back off the idea of any snow/mixed precipitation entirely. If you are rooting for snow, I would put the odds at about a 1 in 5 chance right now. That is probably the number (20%) I will land on for the 7 Day Forecast I’ll generate tomorrow morning based on new data coming in this evening. “20% ain’t nothing,” but the chances are not particularly high at all either. I suspect that more data will arrive tomorrow evening into Saturday that will hopefully drastically firm up the details about what we can expect next week. The odds of a crippling ice storm have come down a bit, thankfully, as that scenario would be particularly hazardous and impactful for our local area. We will know more information in the days ahead. Please check back in for updates.
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I will have a full video update posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me then for the very latest information. Have a good Thursday night!