MAJOR DISRUPTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO WINTER STORM COMING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT; EXTREMELY COLD TEMPS… Travel will likely become treacherous on Tuesday into Tuesday night as snow, sleet, and freezing rain become possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The probability of *at least* 1 inch of accumulating snow across much of the region is now between 50-80%. In addition, coastal counties have some risk of accumulating ice. While we are still 3 days out from this event and further changes are likely, right now, the wintry precipitation is most likely to start on Tuesday in the midday and afternoon hours across south Alabama and northwest Florida. PLEASE check back in for updates in the days ahead as I suspect we will need to adjust timing based on the latest data. Winter storms are notoriously difficult to forecast in the Deep South due partially to the fact that events like this are rare. We will probably see some forecast changes right up to Monday night ahead of the event. In addition to the winter storm threat, I am also becoming very concerned about the prolonged period of very low temperatures starting tomorrow and lasting all week.
TIMING – WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT… The core 12 hour window for impacts from this winter storm will be from Noon to Midnight on Tuesday, January 21. Impacts COULD become possible as early as 3AM Tuesday, specifically across parts of west Alabama first with impacts spreading eastward, although most of the guidance has trended a bit later on Tuesday. We strongly encourage everyone to get where they need to be by midday Tuesday and stay there until the significant threat of snow and ice comes to an end. The end of the risk may be on Wednesday but there is a possibility the threat lingers all the way to Thursday. Bottom line: No travel is advised once this event begins in your location. Road conditions will likely deteriorate quickly.
SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES; GREATER AMOUNTS LIKELY INLAND… Right now, the prevailing logic suggests 2 to 4 inches of snowfall being possible across parts of southwest Alabama with 1 to 3 inches of snow for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. There is always a chance in situations like this that the snow forecast underperforms and there is always a chance we see a significant over-performance. Some of the outlier scenarios have suggested upwards of 6-12″ of snow at times, but keep in mind, most locations probably won’t get near that amount. Overall, the higher snow totals will likely set up in Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Covington, Butler, Crenshaw, Pike, Coffee, Geneva, Dale, Houston, Henry, and Barbour counties in south Alabama.
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ICE POSSIBLE NEAR COAST… In addition to the snow potential, there is concern for the potential for freezing rain (rain that falls as a liquid but freezes on contact) and sleet. This risk is maximized across parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Travel could become extremely problematic if any ice accretion happens.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY… A rare Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all local counties from Sunday evening through Monday morning. Temperatures will be in the 10s across much of the region with wind chill values as low as 4° (yes, wind chills near 4 degrees!) on Monday morning around 6AM. Please check on neighbors that may not have adequate heating sources. We encourage everyone to bring in outdoor pets and animals. This will be a rare, dangerously cold air mass in place for the first half of the week through Wednesday. High temperatures on Tuesday probably won’t get above the freezing mark on Tuesday afternoon. VERY cold conditions upcoming. Please take it seriously!
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted this evening and on Sunday in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Saturday evening!