MILDER TEMPS NEXT WEEK; NO EVIDENCE OF SNOW/PROLONGED ARCTIC TEMPS ANYTIME SOON… Despite viral fake news/misinformation posts, there is zero evidence of any more snow or a long duration (4+ days) cold weather event anytime soon. I have been asked at least 100 times today across platforms about a viral post from a Facebook page suggesting a major Arctic air outbreak with snow is coming back to the Gulf Coast region in early February. Not only is that just plain wrong based on all of the evidence, it’s also frustrating for someone (who I cannot name because it is an ‘anonymous,’ generic page with no real, human name attached) to post this garbage when we are still trying to recover from the snow/ice. The good news is our area has a growing chance of above normal temperatures as we get into early February.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 20s TONIGHT; BLACK ICE CONCERNS… We will be in the upper 10s inland with 20s likely in many spots across the region tonight. The National Weather Service has a Cold Weather Advisory in place for several local counties. I am specifically concerned about the potential for black ice, particularly in areas where snow is still on the ground. Black ice is very hard to see. Please take it very slow if you have to drive overnight and be aware of the heightened potential for dangerous road conditions. High temperatures will break through the 50 degree mark tomorrow in many spots as a warming trend continues.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK MAP ATTACHED… The map attached is the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). You can keep up with these outlooks at cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. There is no skill in pinpointing specifics beyond 7 days out. We can look at patterns to ascertain generalized trends in the 8-14 day range, however. In this case, the outlook is valid from January 31 to February 6, showing a growing chance of temperatures that will be above our climatological norms for this time of year. For us, that means highs in the 60s and maybe even 70s. ZERO evidence of highs in the 40s or below in that range, for now.
VIRAL MISINFORMATION HELPS NO ONE… These anonymous pages post this fake news in order to generate traffic to their social media followings to generate more money for themselves. They don’t give a rip about you or me or anyone based in truth and reality. People ask me things like, “I have a doctor appointment in Pensacola on that day in February. Should I cancel?” What I would say to the people choosing to promote misinformation: “It’s all fun and games posting and sharing rumors, hyperbole, and fake news until you realize you’re interrupting potentially life-saving care.” While I will always support the First Amendment and free speech rights, just because you can post something absolutely does not mean you should. I’ve said it probably hundreds of times before this and I’ll say it again tonight: I do not have to be your primary source of weather information, but for your own good and your own safety, please do not rely on some anonymous page that isn’t accountable to his or her public. You look at TV meteorologists, there is accountability. You look at the National Weather Service, there is accountability. You look at me, others like me. There is accountability. Our names are attached to our work. ZERO accountability for pages like “Gulf Weather Updates,” “Gulf Coast Reports,” etc. PLEASE don’t share this garbage. If there is ever doubt, feel free to message me and I am GLAD to help sort through what is real and what is not. That has happened over 100 times today alone.
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS LIKELY; ODDS OF ANOTHER MAJOR SNOW EVENT ARE QUITE LOW… Please understand that the snow event we have just gone through across south Alabama and northwest Florida very likely won’t be repeated again for quite some time. I used the phrase “generational snow” a few days ago, but being that we ended up with almost a foot of snow in spots across the region, that term probably was too generous. “Once or twice in a lifetime snow” would have probably been more accurate. The odds of us seeing almost a foot of snow on the ground in our lifetimes this far south, particularly in areas near the coast, is quite low. We WILL have more Arctic air intrusions before the end of this winter season. It is late January, and that is a given. It will happen. But the odds of having a weeklong streak of subfreezing temperatures is quite low. Any cold air outbreaks that happen locally probably won’t last 5-6 days. Obviously, I can’t say it won’t happen, but the data simply does not support it at this time.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a good Thursday evening and stay warm!