TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY; DETAILED UPDATE… The risk of tornadoes on Saturday, March 15 into Saturday night continues to increase across parts of the Deep South. All of Alabama and northwest Florida are now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk, indicating scattered severe storms will be likely. Further outlook upgrades are likely, potentially as soon as tomorrow. It is becoming clear that multiple rounds of severe storms are expected across central and west Alabama and parts of Mississippi. The risk ramps up across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida during the daytime hours of Saturday, extending into Saturday night. The threat of a few long-track, strong (EF2+) tornadoes is increasing, specifically across parts of Mississippi and west Alabama. In addition to the Saturday threat, we are also looking ahead to TOMORROW (Thursday, March 13) when a few isolated strong storms may happen. Most locales tomorrow will be fine, but a few loud storms will be possible.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT… Timing is becoming a bit more clear this evening as far as when we are expecting thunderstorms on Saturday. You may be wondering why the first time window (located over Mississippi, west Alabama, and central Alabama) is a solid 18 hours long? There may be an early morning round of discrete, severe storms over these areas specifically. The tornado risk may ramp up across west Alabama as early as 3-4AM on Saturday. Noon Saturday to 3AM Sunday is the core window for most of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will continue moving east on Saturday night into early Sunday morning and should be in the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia by 6AM Sunday at the latest.
SHOULD I CANCEL MY SATURDAY EVENT?… Lots of questions over the last several hours asking me, “should I cancel this and that for Saturday?” My answer is NOT YET. I don’t think it is prudent to cancel events this far out when we are still 3 days out from a severe weather setup. It would be a bit different if this were a major hurricane setup or something like that but this is a deal that will feature scattered to numerous severe storms. There will be many communities that don’t experience severe weather, even on a higher risk day. Where severe storms develop, however, they could be particularly and extremely dangerous. We encourage everyone to monitor updates over the next few days and adjust plans as needed closer to Saturday. I realize some folks have events that need a yes or a no, but we simply can’t give spatial and temporal reasoning for event cancellations based on the data this far out.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… A few widely scattered storms will be possible tomorrow across parts of Alabama and northwest Florida. The Storm Prediction Center has included much of our local area in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for the daytime hours of Thursday. Gusty winds and hail are the main concerns in any storms that can briefly become strong or marginally severe. I don’t foresee many, if any tornadoes, happening on Thursday. If we see any tornado development tomorrow, it will likely happen across parts of east and southeast Alabama where shear values are a bit higher.
SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY; LOW-END RISK LOCALLY… Strong to severe storms will be possible to our north across parts of northwest Alabama and north Mississippi on Friday. SPC has a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk in place for northwest Alabama, north Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, eastern Missouri, southeast Iowa, much of Illinois, and western Indiana. Strong tornadoes will be possible in these zones along with a pronounced threat of damaging wind gusts and hail. We note SPC has included much of our local area in the low-end risk zone valid for Friday night into early Saturday morning.
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK – SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT… Parameters are increasing suggesting tornadoes will be possible across a large swath of the Deep South on Saturday into Saturday night, particularly in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. Some of the tornadoes may be long track, significant (EF2+) tornadoes. In addition, damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down trees and power lines may become possible. Large hail will also be a concern in any of the storms that can become discrete and isolated. There is a real chance we wake up tomorrow morning with an even higher risk zone for parts of Alabama and Mississippi due to the increasing tornado threat valid for Saturday into Saturday night.
A NOTE ABOUT THE ZONE SPECIFICS… One bit of concern I always have during these potentially higher-end severe weather setups is that folks will “tune out” the lower risk zones, when in actuality, WE ALL have a risk of severe storms. Quite frankly, once the event starts, it does not matter one bit what color/risk number/risk level your specific community is involved with: Dangerous thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida. This is a helpful reminder not to get TOO caught up in the specific risk level or color zone in the convective outlooks. While the risk of tornadoes IS higher in the higher risk zones, tornadoes can and do happen OUTSIDE of the highest risk zones with severe weather setups like what is expected on Saturday.
COMPLEX FORECASTS CAUSE WEATHER ANXIETY… Let me stress there is NO need for panic or worry concerning the upcoming severe weather risk on Saturday. I know anytime we have a situation like this, “severe weather anxiety” goes off the charts for some people. One thing I would suggest for folks in this camp is to review your tornado safety plan NOW before we have any type of potential local impacts. It is a good idea really for everyone, BUT if you’re someone that struggles with severe weather anxiety, taking control of the situation and being prepared can sometimes make you feel a bit better. This is tornado season and situations like this are totally normal (and expected!) for this time of year. I know the media noise can sometimes feel overwhelming to some. Stick with me over the next few days and we’ll get through this.
BE THE HERO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard nothing about this severe weather threat setting up for Saturday. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live, YouTube Live, and in the Live tab of the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have updates posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed video update will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me then as we will have a fresh look at the latest forecast information. Have a nice Wednesday evening!
