SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY; LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE STORMS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become likely overnight into Monday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. MOST of the storms will be under severe limits, most likely. A few storms may briefly ramp up to strong or severe levels with gusty winds and large hail being the two main concerns. The overall tornado risk remains quite low, but not entirely zero. This is demonstrated by what has happened over the last several hours across Mississippi and northwest Alabama. We have had numerous severe thunderstorm warnings with MANY confirmed hail reports, a couple of damaging wind reports, and one tornado report (near Rolling Fork, MS in the last hour). The expectation is for this trend to continue – most storms will be under severe limits but a few may turn severe. Tornado risk LOW, but not entirely zero. In addition to the morning round of storms expected across the region, a separate, afternoon round of storms will be possible.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY… Thunderstorms will approach the region from the northwest overnight. Storms will likely reach the northern parts of Clarke and Washington counties around 3-4AM. This weakening complex of rain and thunderstorms will move across the region and reach the northwest Florida coast around 7-9AM, most likely. 3AM overnight to 9AM is the six hour window when rain and storms will be most likely to happen on Monday. There is less confidence in the idea of an afternoon round of storms re-firing right along the frontal boundary that will be draped across our region. IF the afternoon round of storms develops and moves southeast, this is most likely to happen from 2PM to 8PM Monday. Gusty winds and hail would be the primary concerns with the first and second batch of storms (morning and afternoon) with an overall LOW (not zero) tornado risk.
LOW-END, LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Much of the area, tonight and into tomorrow, remains involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. This type of risk (a low-end risk) is issued when atmospheric conditions are not primed for severe weather (unlike what we saw last weekend when the tornado outbreak happened). Instead, this is a situation when most of the storms across our region will NOT be severe. So why issue a risk at all? Because it’s a low-end risk, not a “zero risk.” When we have a low-end risk in place, we get at least one tornado warning about 1 out of 10 times. Not a slam dunk, but not zero, either. Bottom line here… Have a way to hear warnings, just in case one is needed for your specific location. Most of us will be just fine with general rain and thunder at times over the next 24 hours.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the night, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed forecast video and text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a great Sunday night!
