NICE WEATHER TO START THE WEEK; HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS… Mostly sunny skies are expected with very low rain chances across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. One or two highly isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible this afternoon into this evening in areas south of I-10 in coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. Most of us across the region, however, will remain dry. High temperatures will be around the 90 degree mark today. Tomorrow will be similar to today with increased rain chances on Wednesday into Thursday.
2025 HURRICANE SEASON: QUIET WEEK IN THE TROPICS… The Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are quiet with no tropical storms expected to form over the next 5-7 days. There has been a lot of chatter and internet buzz about a potential tropical system developing in the western Caribbean Sea in 10-14 days and ultimately moving toward the Gulf. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Probably not. The American-based GFS (Global Forecast System) has a real bias to spin up phantom hurricanes in the 10-14 day range, MANY of which never happen. Am I concerned at this point? Not even close. It’s now hurricane season and I will monitor trends, but this is definitely nothing to lose any sleep over as of now.
2025 HURRICANE SEASON: PRESEASON FORECAST… The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially kicked off as of June 1. The preseason outlooks issued by both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University are calling for an above-average hurricane season, in terms of the number of storms expected to form. The NOAA hurricane season outlook calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes across the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf.
2025 HURRICANE SEASON: ABOVE AVERAGE PREDICTIONS… A RedZone Weather viewer recently sent me a message asking why it seems like every year over the last few years have featured hurricane season forecasts with above average predictions (and subsequently active seasons that come to fruition). The reason hurricane season forecasts have called for above average activity because we’ve been in a naturally active era called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which started in 1995. This long-term cycle tends to produce warmer ocean temperatures, more favorable wind patterns, and overall conditions that fuel stronger and more frequent storms. So even in years without major hurricane landfalls in the continental United States, the ingredients for a busy season are often in place.
2025 HURRICANE SEASON: NEUTRAL TO LA NINA PATTERN EXPECTED… This year, another reason for the heightened predictions are because we’re entering into the La Niña phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A neutral or La Niña pattern in the ENSO tends to make conditions more favorable for hurricanes to develop in the Atlantic Basin. That is because La Niña reduces wind shear over the Atlantic, allowing storms to grow and organize more easily. So if we stay neutral or move into the La Niña phase during hurricane season, it increases the likelihood of more frequent and possibly stronger storms forming in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Monday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
