TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN EASTERN GULF OR WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 5-7 DAYS… There is a low-end (20%) chance of a tropical or subtropical storm developing around the 4th of July or perhaps into the upcoming weekend along a broad zone that extends from the eastern Gulf to the western Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center has flagged this area with a 20% chance of a named tropical storm developing in 5-7 days. The zone of yellow on the map attached is merely a signal of potential development at this point and is, in no way, suggestive of where the storm may end up if formal development happens. There have been intermittent model runs over the last few days suggesting this potential, but even now, the overall model support remains inconsistent and murky, at best. At this point, this is simply something to monitor as we go through the next few days. This is certainly nothing to worry over. I have already received questions asking if beach trip plans should be changed. The answer to that is NO. We simply don’t have enough information to be able to give tangible advice on if plans should be changed – thus, the answer is keep your plans as of now. Please check back in for updates in the days ahead.
LOCALLY, HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY… Scattered pop-up thunderstorms are in progress this afternoon across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. These storms will become more numerous as the afternoon progresses. Scattered to numerous pop-up storms are likely on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, primarily (although not exclusively) in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe storms are not expected through Wednesday. Pop-up storms will be capable of producing localized downpours, loud thunder, and cloud-to-ground lightning.
TROPICAL STORM BARRY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF… Totally separate from the tropical area of concern in the eastern Gulf, we are also tracking newly upgraded Tropical Storm Barry in the far southwestern Gulf in the Bay of Campeche region. Tropical Depression Two strengthened ever so slightly this morning and became a tropical storm at the 10AM advisory, taking the name “Barry.” The good news for south Alabama and northwest Florida is that Barry will never cause direct, significant local impacts for our area. Barry is expected to bring tropical storm impacts to parts of Mexico tonight and tomorrow before dissipation tomorrow evening over the terrain of northeastern Mexico.
WHAT TO EXPECT – INDEPENDENCE DAY & INTO WEEKEND… Most model guidance does NOT show direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida due to the potential tropical system developing in the northeastern Gulf in 5-7 days, meaning for now we will not factor that storm into our 7 Day Forecast. Could that change? Yes, meaning forecast changes are possible. Regardless of if we have tropical impacts, you can expect a chance of pop-up storms each day in the next 7 days with the highest rain chances coming tomorrow, Tuesday, and Wednesday. For now, we will maintain lower (30-40%) rain chances on Thursday and into the Independence Day holiday weekend. Temperatures will be in the 80s for afternoon highs Monday and Tuesday with highs closer to 95° for the 4th of July on Friday.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have updates posted this evening into tonight in the RedZone Weather app. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Sunday afternoon!
