TROPICAL STORM FORMATION POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… An area of low pressure currently located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea will move north this week into this weekend. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center indicates there is a low-end (20%) chance that a tropical storm may form by Sunday. Based on the latest satellite data, I would not be shocked to see this probability increased in the days ahead. It’s normal in these situations to see quite a bit of model uncertainty since this system has not developed. Indeed, that is what is being observed as we still have more questions than answers at this point.
UNCERTAINTY IS THE WORD… Model guidance so far has been “all over the board,” with no discernible, reliable trends. The operational run of the ECMWF (Euro) model has trended toward a system that moves over The Bahamas and out to sea in some runs, although we note many of the ensemble members of the ECMWF show a Gulf of Mexico system. The American-based GFS model has been literally all over the board. At this point, no one (and I mean NO ONE) can say for sure a) whether this system will develop into a tropical storm and b) if so, where it will end up. Per usual, we’ll know more in the days ahead as models get a better grasp on this developing system.
HURRICANE SEASON NOT OVER… Let this system be a reminder to us that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is far from over. While activity historically ramps down throughout the month of October, there have many major hurricanes in October throughout the years (Opal is the first that comes to my mind). Again, we have no way of knowing at this point exactly what will happen with this developing areas of low pressure, but the big takeaway for all of us should be that we must remain diligent in keeping tabs on the tropics.
APP ALERTS… I’ll have plenty of updates in the days ahead about the tropics here in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have the latest details for you on Wednesday morning in my next forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM on Facebook and here in the RedZone Weather app. Enjoy your evening!