ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY; TORNADO RISK REMAINS LOW… The severe weather risk valid for Memorial Day Monday has increased although this is a conditional threat, meaning the right set of circumstances will have to come together to support severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center now includes a large chunk of south Alabama in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk with many more communities involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. The overall tornado risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida remains quite low, but not entirely zero, particularly across inland areas closer to the U.S. Highway 84 corridor. Gusty winds and hail will be the two main hazard concerns on Monday. The overall forecast Monday will be a bit tricky as MOST communities across the region will be completely dry with no major weather issues. Where thunderstorms do develop, however, we could have severe weather issues. The greatest potential for thunderstorms developing looks to be along, south, and east of I-65.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – MONDAY… Thunderstorms will be most likely to happen during the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday across the region. 2PM to 8PM is the core six hour window when strong to severe storms will be most likely to happen. Again, the tornado risk remains quite low. It is not zero, but it is quite low. Damaging wind gusts and hail are most likely to happen in the core six hour window.
SOME COMMUNITIES WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY & HOT… Monday will likely NOT be a day when all communities across the region have rain. Quite the opposite, actually. It looks like thunderstorms will remain quite spotty in nature. We have a cold front approaching from the northwest, although this frontal boundary may not push completely across our region. There will be plenty of moisture and plenty of instability for storms to work with, but the question is: Will the “spark” be there for storms to initiate and actually develop? If the answer is yes, some of those storms have the atmospheric ingredients in place to become severe, briefly. There very well may be many communities across south Alabama and northwest Florida that pick up NO rain on Monday, despite the severe weather risk.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed post will be in the morning forecast video that will be available at 7:15AM. Have a nice Sunday night!
