RZW EXEC: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING P.M. HOURS TODAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday morning! There is a concern that a few isolated severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into this evening, specifically across our northwest Florida communities. The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone for communities along and EAST of a line from Bayou La Batre to Fairhope to Andalusia. This includes places like Pensacola, Milton, Orange Beach, Destin, and Crestview. Communities like Mobile, Atmore, Bay Minette, Brewton, and Evergreen are involved in the lower-end, Level 1 risk zone. The main risk for a few tornadoes and gusty winds in the stronger storms will happen from 11AM to 6PM this evening. This risk will likely end completely by 8PM.
I generally do not send RZW Exec updates for temperature alerts, but please be aware we will have below freezing temperatures in place for many communities locally on Tuesday morning AND on Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be below 32 degrees for 2-4 hours early Tuesday morning with overnight lows projected to be in the upper-20s. Late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning could feature a hard freeze with 6-10 hours of below freezing temperatures.
SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING TORNADOES, POSSIBLE LATER TODAY… The severe weather risk for our local area has increased for today, with part of the region now involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms will be possible. Heavy rain will be possible at times throughout the day. The risk for strong to severe storms will be maximized from midday into the afternoon and evening hours. 11AM to 6PM is the 7 hour window when severe weather seems most likely to happen. The tornado risk will likely be greatest in northwest Florida and closer to the coast, generally, with a much lower risk of severe storms farther inland due to a lack of atmospheric instability in those areas. As always, if and when we have tornado warnings, be sure to join us in live, uninterrupted video coverage. After the rain and storms today, skies will clear from west to east on Monday as cold, dry air moves in. All of your Sunday morning forecast details are below.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR PART OF THE AREA… The risk of severe weather today will be maximized closer to the immediate coast, but a tornado or two may be possible across inland areas as well. This is why the Storm Prediction Center has included several local communities in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. This Level 2 risk zone is in place for the following communities: Pensacola, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Dauphin Island, Fairhope, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Beulah, Gonzalez, Perdido Key, Molino, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Munson, Jay, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Crestview, Baker, Holt, Harold, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 1 RISK ZONE… There is a lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place today for communities generally to the north and west of the Level 2 risk. These are the communities that are less likely to experience severe weather, but a stronger storm or two may be possible. The Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone includes: Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Bayou La Batre, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Bay Minette, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Perdido, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Brewton, East Brewton, Red Level, Evergreen, Owassa, Repton, Range, Castleberry, Brooklyn, Georgiana, McKenzie, Uriah, and surrounding areas.
NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER INLAND WEST ALABAMA… The air mass in place over much of Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, and Wilcox counties is expected to remain fairly stable, thus severe weather seems less likely in these counties. Thunder and lightning could accompany the heavy rain at times in these counties, but generally, the severe weather risk will remain farther to the south and east where the much more unstable air will be.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Heavy rain will be possible at times throughout the day and into the evening. The overall tornado risk will be maximized from 11AM to 6PM, although keep in mind that severe storms may happen a few hours before or after that timeframe. We will likely be able to give an “all clear” from the severe weather risk by 9PM at the latest.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY… In addition to the risk of a few strong to severe storms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern. Total rainfall amounts across the region today are expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch range.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT… One of the reasons we have a chance of active weather today is because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. This frontal boundary will move across our region overnight, allowing cool, dry, stable air to move in for Monday.
COLD DAYS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY… Clouds will move out on Monday, giving way to clear skies for Tuesday and Wednesday. Since skies will be clear, there won’t be any cloud cover to help insulate the earth and act like a blanket of sorts, thus temperatures will be quite cold. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the 50s (low-50s on Monday and Tuesday).
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY MORNINGS… The coldest mornings of the next 7 days will almost certainly be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will likely be in the mid- to upper-20s across inland areas of south Alabama with lower-30s likely closer to the immediate coast. Wednesday morning could meet the criteria of a hard freeze, with several hours of below freezing temperatures expected across inland areas. Clear skies are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK… There is growing confidence we will have yet another round of rain by Thursday and Friday. No snow or wintry precipitation is in the forecast as temperatures will have warmed a bit compared to earlier in the week, meaning just a cold rain is expected. Temperatures will be in the upper-50s in the afternoon hours by Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the 40s.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a great Sunday!