RZW EXEC: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! We continue to look at the severe weather risk setting up for Tuesday (tomorrow) across south Alabama and northwest Florida. It appears the greatest risk will happen across INLAND counties, with a lower risk closer to the immediate coast. The main concern on Tuesday will be damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms that will be capable of knocking down trees. Isolated tornadoes and large hail will also be possible in the stronger storms.

Overview: Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, most likely in the daytime hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Tornadoes will be possible.

Threat Level: Level 2 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered instances of severe storms will be possible.

Where: Inland areas of south Alabama are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone, including all parts of Covington, Escambia (AL), Butler, Crenshaw, Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, and Washington counties. Our coastal counties are involved in the lower-end Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. This includes Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Mobile, and Baldwin counties.

When: 6AM to 4PM Tuesday, March 31. The core risk will be from 9AM to 3PM.

Risks: A few tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph in the stronger storms. Large hail will also be possible in the stronger storms.

I will begin publishing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!

Below is the public, long form post that will debut this evening.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & TORNADOES POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY… Severe storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds and potentially a few tornadoes on Tuesday as a potent storm system moves through from west to east across our local area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outlook much of our area in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid on Tuesday, meaning scattered instances of severe weather will be possible. Let’s be clear: Not everyone will have weather issues on Tuesday, but there could be multiple locales that experience trees down and perhaps more damage IF tornadoes happen. Unfortunately, this system likely will not be a significant rain event for our region. Most spots can expect upwards of one half inch to one inch of rainfall in total. Let’s look at the information you need to know tonight…

HAVE A WAY TO GET URGENT WEATHER WARNINGS TONIGHT… Before you go to sleep, I would encourage you to have at least one (if not multiple) ways to receive urgent weather warnings. You need something like a NOAA Weather Radio that will wake you up if your area goes under a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. Cell phone apps, including our free RedZone Weather app, are a great choice for alerting options too. Let’s be clear in stating that the core risk will be in the daytime hours of Tuesday (more info on specific timing below), but I can’t completely rule out a few stronger storms over west Alabama as early as 4AM or 5AM. Thus, we want everyone to have a way to get warnings before you go to sleep this evening as a course of least regret.

MAIN CONCERNS TUESDAY – DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES… Based on the latest model guidance, it has become increasingly apparent that damaging straight line winds will likely be our greatest risk on Tuesday in the stronger storms. There could be a few tornadoes involved as well, but this may not matter if we have a widespread damaging wind event as straight line winds can sometimes be as bad or worse than tornadoes. Large hail, up to the size of golfballs, will be possible in the strongest of the storms. The overall risk for flash flooding remains very low as overall rain amounts will probably less than one inch in total across the region. Cloud-to-ground lightning will also be a concern.

TIMING – SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY… 6AM to 4PM on Tuesday remains the ten hour window when strong to severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The core risk will be from 9AM to 3PM. Storms will move from west to east, but we note that there could be a few isolated stronger storms out ahead of the main batch of storms that will progressively move across our region.

The following information has not changed since our previous detailed update this morning.

COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We’re in a strange time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining those details.

COOLER, DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT… The reason we have a chance of severe storms on Tuesday is partly because of the forcing caused by the advancing cold front that will be moving into our area on Tuesday evening. This front will bring cooler, drier air into our region by Tuesday night.

BETTER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY… Nicer, slightly cooler, and drier conditions will be in place for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will drop into the mid-70s by Wednesday with overnight lows falling into the mid- to upper-50s. Mostly sunny skies are likely Wednesday with partly cloudy skies on Thursday.

MORE RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… There could be a few showers ahead of an area of low pressure inching closer to our area on Friday. Rain chances will rise as we go into next weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. It is too early to talk specifics on that system, but it is late March and early April (heart of severe weather season!), meaning we need to watch this system closely. I’ll have more details about this once we get through the active weather on Tuesday.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… Please don’t forget to take advantage of our new RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program. We want to be able to safely send as many encouraging cards as possible to our local senior adults in nursing homes. Be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link.

I’ll have more updates overnight and on Tuesday morning in the RedZone Weather app before the next detailed video and text discussion. The video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a great evening!

RZW EXEC: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Saturday evening! I hope all of you remain healthy and well in the midst of this coronavirus situation. We’re looking at a chance of severe weather on Tuesday. Below is the condensed information of what you need to know, followed by the long form text I will push publicly later this evening. Please let me know if you have specific questions or decision support needs. Thank you!

Overview: Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, most likely in the daytime hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Tornadoes will be possible.

Threat Level: Level 2 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered instances of severe storms will be possible.

Where: Nearly all of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. ALL parts of Baldwin, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Covington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties are included. In addition, much of Mobile, Clarke, and Washington counties are involved, including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Thomasville, and Jackson.

When: 6AM to 6PM Tuesday, March 31. This timeline may change slightly due to updated model data over the next few days.

Risks: A few tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph in the stronger storms.

I will begin publishing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!

Below is the public, long form post…

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has added nearly all of south Alabama and all of northwest Florida into their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Tuesday. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will likely be the convective hazards with this event. Timing is still a bit uncertain due to model disagreement, but it appears this will be a daytime event for most of us across the region. The reason we have a severe weather risk setting up Tuesday is because a cold front will be diving southeastward across our region, putting nearly all of us in a warm, unstable sector out ahead of the front that could potentially support the development of strong to severe storms. There are obviously some abnormal considerations we have to look at in terms of the tornado warning sheltering guidelines and COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. Please see the paragraph (and separate linked post in the paragraph) below about that. That is your summary, below are all the details.

WHO IS INVOLVED IN LEVEL 2 RISK… Nearly all of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved. Basically a line from Columbus (Georgia) to Montgomery to Selma to Chatom and points south to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches are included. ALL parts of these counties are included in the risk zone: Monroe, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, in addition to all counties in southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In addition, parts of Mobile, Clarke, and Washington counties in west Alabama are included in the risk zone, including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Jackson, Grove Hill, and Thomasville.

MAIN HAZARDS: A FEW TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… The main concerns in the storms that can ramp up to strong and severe levels on Tuesday will be the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds that could knock down trees across our region. It is too early to be specific on where potential specific threats may set up. That is something we’ll be trying to nail down on a more specific level in the days ahead.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY… 6AM to 6PM on Tuesday, March 31 is the 12 hour window when severe weather appears to be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We will be able to get a more specific, focused timeline over the next few days as more model data firms up the details. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings in place BEFORE this event.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR LOCAL AREA… When a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place, that means that scattered instances of severe thunderstorms are possible, including the potential for isolated intense thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. MOST times when we have a Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk in place, we simply do not have major issues. There have been times, however, when big issues have happened on Level 2-type days. Take the Century-Flomaton EF3 tornado that happened on February 15, 2016. That was a Level 2 risk day. That is certainly not the NORM for a Level 2 risk day, but it just goes to show that intense thunderstorms CAN happen.

COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We’re in a strange time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining all of that.

SET UP APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… My next detailed video update and long form text discussion will be posted on Sunday no later than 3PM. I hope you’ll tune in and join us for that. In the meantime, I’ll have quite a few updates this evening into tonight and Sunday morning in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any weather-related questions.

Have a great Saturday evening!

RZW EXEC: FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon! I hope all of you are healthy and well in the midst of this coronavirus situation. We have been fortunate not to have active weather in the middle of this national/international crisis but it looks like we now have a SMALL chance of a few stronger storms happening on Friday (tomorrow). Let me be clear in that the main concern will be gusty winds and hail. The overall risk of tornadoes remains VERY LOW.

Overview: A few strong storms are possible across much of west and central Alabama Friday afternoon and early evening.

Where: This low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone includes parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, Marengo, and Butler counties.

When: 11AM to 9PM.

Risks: Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph in the isolated stronger storms. Up to quarter size hail in the stronger storms. The tornado risk remains very low.

I will begin pushing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!

RZW EXEC: SEVERE WEATHER RISK A BIT HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday evening! Below is a detailed breakdown of the latest info concerning our severe weather setup on Wednesday. The overall risk has increased slightly, especially for inland areas considering we have previously advertised a higher tornado risk closer to the coast. The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. This risk extends westward into southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana as well. There is hardly any doubt that we will have heavy rain at times across the region on Wednesday. The overall chance of severe weather (tornadoes/damaging winds) will be conditional on just how far north a warm front moves tomorrow in the late morning and early afternoon hours. If the warm front lifts to the northern part of our area as expected, it would put many of us in a volatile, somewhat unstable warm sector capable of supporting more in the way of severe storms. If the warm front stays near the coast or does not make it onshore (less likely scenario), then our area would have more in the way of heavy rain with lower chances of severe weather. Regardless of which scenario happens, I’ll be with you every step of the way in the RedZone Weather app tomorrow.

Please let me know if you have any questions or decision support needs. I’m here to help you with these questions! Below is the info that will debut publicly tonight with my next detailed post.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK INCREASES SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY… The overall risk of tornadoes and damaging winds has increased somewhat for Wednesday. The entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible, including the potential for a few tornadoes. In addition to the tornado risk, there also is a risk of damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding. This means that all modes of severe weather will be possible on Wednesday.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ALL OF LOCAL AREA… All locales in south Alabama and northwest Florida are now involved in the Level 2 (out of 5), slight severe weather risk valid for Wednesday. This means that scattered instances of strong to severe storms will be possible. Tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding are all concerns. This risk is in place south of a line from Butler to Camden to Fort Deposit to Eufaula. Some of the communities involved in this include: Mobile, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Fairhope, Daphne, Orange Beach, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Monroeville, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, Mexia, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Range, Lenox, Owassa, Brooklyn, Johnsonville, Forest Home, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Pleasant Home, Straughn, Rose Hill, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Gilbertown, Millry, Chatom, Wilmer, Prichard, Citronelle, Theodore, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Foley, Loxley, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Walnut Hill, Molino, Myrtle Grove, Perdido Key, Gulf Breeze, Milton, Pace, Chumuckla, Jay, Berrydale, Navarre, Bagdad, Crestview, Baker, Milligan, Holt, Harold, Laurel Hill, Niceville, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Dothan, Geneva, Abbeville, and Samson.

TIMING – SEVERE STORMS LIKELY IN EVENING… While heavy rain will be possible intermittently thoughout the day on Wednesday, the core risk of strong to severe storms is likely to happen between 2PM and 10PM. That is the eight hour window when severe storms will be MOST likely to happen across our region. The storm mode on Wednesday may be “messy” with numerous areas of rain with storms mixed in.

TORNADO RISK GREATEST NEAR COAST… There will be at least some risk of a tornado or two across our entire region, but clearly the greatest risk will happen across coastal counties where the airmass will be potentially a bit more unstable. This means if you are in any part of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, or Walton counties, your tornado risk will be a just a bit higher compared to communities farther inland.

DAMAGING WINDS & HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE… Gusty winds that could down a few trees will also be possible across the region. Unlike the last few severe weather events we have had since January, Wednesday will be a day when we may have large (up to golfball size, in the most extreme cases) hail. We encourage everyone to please take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously and get sheltered if one is required for your specific location.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING LIKELY… There is some chance that heavy rain and flash flooding could become the lead hazard on Wednesday. NWS Mobile has just placed the entirety of our local area under a Flash Flood Watch, as 3 to 5 inches of rain is in the forecast just for Wednesday. This rainfall will amass on already saturated soil that will quickly lead to flash flooding. We lose WAY too many people each year across America due to folks attempting to drive over water-covered roadways. The phrase is, “Turn around, don’t drown.” That will almost certainly apply at times on Wednesday.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH ON WEDNESDAY… The National Weather Service has placed ALL of our local area in a Flash Flood Watch valid until 11PM on Wednesday night. This Flash Flood Watch is in effect as we could have 3 to 5 inches of rain in total Wednesday with isolated higher amounts being possible. From NWS Mobile: “Soils remain saturated in the Flash Flood Watch area. Heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time from storms that are likely to move repeatedly over the same areas sets up an increased favorability for onset of flooding of urban and low-lying areas. Additional river rises may also worsen lingering ongoing river flooding [across west Alabama].”

HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS WEDNESDAY… We had a massive cellular and data outage over the last few days across parts of Escambia (AL) and Conecuh counties. This underscores the need to have redundancy in your severe weather plan. Please have more than one way to get urgent weather warnings, both for this potential event today and as we go into the heart of severe weather season later this month and into April. NOAA Weather Radio is a great backup to cell phone apps and vice versa. Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) are also critical during severe weather events. You can visit your notification settings on your smartphone to make sure you have WEAs turned ON. These are sometimes labeled as “emergency alerts.”

TORNADO WARNING COVERAGE REMINDER… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

RAIN & STORMS THURSDAY MORNING… Rain will continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There could be a few thunderstorms around as late as Thursday morning, but the severe weather risk should be over by late Wednesday night. Model guidance has been consistent in suggesting rain will taper off midday on Thursday from west to east.

NICE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY… Sunshine finally returns on Friday into Saturday and Sunday! High temperatures each day will be in the mid- to upper-60s with morning lows around 40 degrees. Unfortunately, it appears this dry streak will be short-lived as more rain is in the forecast as we go into Monday of the upcoming week.

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We have multiple periods of active weather coming up over the next 48-72 hours. The first round of storms will happen Tuesday evening. For most spots, Tuesday will feature rain at times with the potential for heavy rain. There could, however, be a brief tornado or two across inland counties. The second, potentially more potent, round of storms will happen on Wednesday. The southern half of our local area is involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk zone on Wednesday, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. Perhaps the biggest question on everyone’s mind is when will the rain and storms come to an end? The answer to that is Thursday, most likely midday when rain will clear out to the east of our area. If we happen to have tornado warnings at any point over the next 72 hours, be sure to join me on Facebook Live or in the Live tab in the RedZone Weather app. If you have specific decision support needs, please let me know. More details are below.

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK INLAND TUESDAY… There is a low-end chance that some of the storms that fire up later Tuesday evening into the overnight hours of Wednesday morning could briefly become strong or severe. That is why the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included much of the northern half of our region in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. The concern is that we may have a brief tornado or two in addition to damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms.

HAZARD PLACEMENT TUESDAY: INLAND… SPC maintains a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk for inland parts of south Alabama valid Tuesday. If you’re in Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Covington, Butler, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, or Crenshaw counties, you are involved in this low-end risk. This includes Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, Repton, Range, Lenox, Owassa, Evergreen, Castleberry, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Brewton, East Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Chatom, Fruitdale, McIntosh, Wagerville, Leroy, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Whatley, Greenville, Georgiana, Forest Home, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, River Falls, Opp, Straughn, and surrounding areas.

WHAT TO EXPECT TUESDAY – STORMS AT TIMES… Intermittent showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day on Tuesday. I expect the coverage of showers and storms to ramp up as we get into the afternoon and evening hours when storms have more instability in place.

STORMS FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT… Storms may linger into the evening hours, but I expect an overall lull in storms overnight into the early part of Wednesday morning. Rain and storm coverage will increase as we move toward dawn on Wednesday. As a course of least regret, I would have a way to receive urgent weather warnings Tuesday night before you go to sleep just in case we have a rogue storm or two ramp up, but I certainly am not expecting widespread issues in the overnight hours.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WEDNESDAY… Coastal areas in Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, March 4 in the latest SPC convective outlook. There is a concern that a warm front may lift far enough inland/northward that part of our area near the immediate coast may be in the warm sector. This would allow strong to severe storms to happen, primarily in areas near the coast. Inland areas are involved in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone on Wednesday due to a chance of hail in the stronger storms.

TORNADO RISK NEAR THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY… The tornado risk on Wednesday will be conditional upon a warm front lifting northward into our area. There is still a chance, based on some model guidance, that the warm front may remain offshore, thus limiting the overall chance of severe weather. If you are in Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, you are involved in this slightly higher Level 2 risk area valid for Wednesday. This includes areas near Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Bay Minette, Loxley, Stapleton, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Theodore, Dauphin Island, Wilmer, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Creola, Pensacola, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Baker, and surrounding areas.

HEAVY RAIN & ALL DAY WASHOUT ON WEDNESDAY… Regardless of if your particular location has severe weather issues on Wednesday, there is a VERY high chance of rain across our area. It is pretty uncommon for me to say a day has a chance to be an “all day washout,” but Wednesday fits the qualifications for that. Heavy rain will be possible throughout the day. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially for inland areas of south Alabama. I expect temperatures to be stuck in the mid-60s all day Wednesday, except in areas near the coast that may be south of the warm front. Beach communities may have temperatures as high as the mid-70s Wednesday afternoon. Below are the projected rainfall totals through Thursday across our region.

HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES THIS WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday evening! We have quite a bit of rain on the way, especially on Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall risk of severe weather remains low, as in there is currently a very low risk of tornadoes and low risk of gusty winds in the stronger storms that happen Tuesday evening then again on Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours. Clearly, the greatest weather-related risk this week will be the potential for flash flooding.

FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) continues to indicate that 3 to 4 inches of rainfall in total are expected across inland areas of south Alabama through Thursday. This means if you’re in Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Escambia (AL), or Washington counties in south Alabama, you have a slightly higher risk of flash flooding. Coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in total this week. There is some concern that river flooding that is ongoing along the Alabama River and Tombigbee River in west Alabama may be at least somewhat exacerbated by this new rainfall.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… The big takeaway here is that the overall risk of severe weather remains LOW for Tuesday into Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked parts of west Alabama in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Tuesday along with much of central and southern Mississippi. These are the zones where one or two severe storms can’t be completely ruled out, primarily on Tuesday evening. The main convective hazard in any stronger storms that happen would be gusty winds but an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out, although the risk remains very low. We will get the new convective outlook valid for Wednesday tomorrow morning. I expect much of south Alabama and northwest Florida to be placed in their low-end risk zone valid for Wednesday. I will have another RZW Exec update for you tomorrow (Monday) afternoon. Please let me know if you have any questions.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon to each of you. We have had somewhat of a lull in severe weather activity in the last two weeks. That changes next week when we could have another round of strong to severe storms. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will all be possible on Wednesday, March 4 as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has added much of Mississippi, southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and eastern Texas into their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Tuesday. I expect a continuation of this risk into Wednesday. We’ll get a new convective outlook valid for this timeframe tomorrow (Friday) morning.

It is still quite early in the process, meaning a lot can and will change between now and the middle part of next week but the big takeaway is that we probably will have active weather rumbling through. Water levels of creeks and rivers over west Alabama remain elevated due to all of the recent heavy rain that we’ve had. Flash flooding could quickly become an issue depending on where the rain axis sets up next week.

My next RZW Exec update will be posted by Sunday evening, at the latest. Until then, be sure to let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great evening!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK A BIT LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday afternoon! The overall severe weather risk late Wednesday into early Thursday has lessened somewhat. The Storm Prediction Center has lowered much of our local area into their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This means that while a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out, this will be a rain event for vast majority of us. The timing for this severe weather potential remains on track. 9PM Wednesday to 6AM Thursday is the nine hour window when severe storms will be most likely to occur across our region. We’re expecting a weakening line of storms to approach west Alabama around midnight. The line of storms should progressively weaken as it moves across our region. An isolated tornado or damaging wind gusts will still be possible, but again, the overall risk is now a bit lower. Most spots will probably pick up half an inch to one inch of rain in total with this event.

My next long form discussion and detailed video will be posted this evening around 8PM. Hope you’ll join us for that. Please let me know if you have any questions or have any specific decision support needs. Have a great evening!

RZW EXEC: STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING & THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We have another round of strong to severe thunderstorms that will become possible during the evening hours on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The main concern will be gusty winds that may knock down a few trees across the area. There also is a risk of a few tornadoes, similar to the system that moved by last Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Our local area remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk, meaning scattered severe storms may happen. In addition, there is a substantial risk of flash flooding that is ongoing to our north across north-central Alabama this week. Below is the public text discussion that will debut this evening with our next video. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or concerns or have any specific decision support needs. Thank you!

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY… Details continue to come into better focus regarding our potential for strong to severe storms on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The higher risk area will almost certainly happen to our north across parts of west-central Alabama and central Mississippi. There also is an extreme risk of flash flooding in areas just to our north across the northern half of Alabama tonight into early Tuesday. Numerous flash flood warnings are in place this evening near the Birmingham metro area. Let’s look at your forecast details.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: WEDNESDAY P.M. INTO THURSDAY MORNING… The latest model guidance continues to suggest Wednesday evening into Thursday morning will be the time in which severe storms are most likely to happen. 6PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday is the 9 hour window when severe weather will be MOST likely to happen across our region. This has been adjusted slightly since our morning text discussion.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The two most significant concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. Depending on the specific setup, there could be some hail involved as well. While the flash flooding potential locally is much lower compared to communities farther to our north, IF storms train over the same areas, we could have a few isolated areas of flash flooding as well.

LEVEL 3, ENHANCED RISK TO OUR NORTH & WEST… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone for much of west-central Alabama, central and southwest Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana. The following communities are included in Alabama: Tuscaloosa, Northport, Livingston, Geiger, Eutaw, Forkland, Carrollton, Aliceville, Reform, Gordo, Fayette, Vernon, and Hamilton.

LEVEL 2 RISK LOCALLY… Nearly all of our local area is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, where severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Evergreen, Castleberry, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Leroy, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Milton, Pace, Jay, Berrydale, Crestview, and surrounding areas.

FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEK… Numerous flash flood warnings are in effect this afternoon across north-central Alabama, including in areas near Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. There is a considerable threat of flash flooding setting up over the next few days across the northern half of Alabama. 5 to 8 inches of rain will be possible primarily north of Interstate 20. This includes places like Birmingham, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Hamilton, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. If you’re headed to any of those areas this week, be aware of a significant threat of flash flooding and heavy rain! Much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values locally.

NEXT VIDEO THIS EVENING… I will have your next detailed video update available by 8:15PM this evening. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest on this developing severe weather potential. I will also be posting radar updates throughout the day as needed as more rain and storms move in later today.

Have a nice Monday evening!

FORECAST ON TRACK: STRONG STORMS & HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! No major changes are needed in our forecast messaging. We will continue to advertise a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday into Thursday morning for south Alabama and northwest Florida. The main concern continues to be damaging straight line wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding. The risk for heavy rain and flash flooding has increased somewhat, as the latest model guidance now shows a wide swath of our area picking up 3 to 4 inches of rain in total over the next 72 hours. We will push this information publicly within the next hour. Please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs. Have a nice afternoon!

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY; HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY… Multiple weather hazards, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding, will be possible Wednesday P.M. into Thursday A.M. across the local area. The concern for flash flooding continues to increase as we look ahead to the likelihood of multiple hours of heavy rain setting up for Wednesday and Thursday. The latest forecast guidance from the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the potential for 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total in many spots across our region. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida as there is a concern for a few tornadoes and severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as well. Let’s look at a few midday Tuesday forecast updates.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… The National Weather Service in Mobile will likely issue a Flash Flood Watch for northwest Florida in the hours ahead. Based on the latest model guidance, it seems like the greatest chance for heavy rain will happen in parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. NWS Mobile notes that coastal communities and areas that are more urban have a slightly greater flash flood risk compared to communities farther inland. It has been said a thousand times, but it still rings true: If you encounter a water-covered roadway, do NOT attempt to drive over it. We lose too many people across America each year to this phenomenon. Don’t risk it. Turn around, don’t drown.

LEVEL 2 RISK CONTINUES… The midday update from the Storm Prediction Center continues to include ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone where scattered severe storms may happen Wednesday into Thursday. This means scattered instances of tornadoes and damaging winds may happen across our region. Have a way to get the warnings Wednesday into Thursday. DO something about it and take action to get sheltered if your particular area goes under a tornado warning. Level 2 risk (valid for Wednesday into Thursday) as of Tuesday afternoon: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis and surrounding areas.

We continue to advise that multiple waves/rounds of severe weather may happen Wednesday into Thursday. The following info remains on target from my previous forecast discussion from this morning.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The big takeaway from our latest forecast is that we have multiple times when strong to severe thunderstorms may happen. Basically in the 24 hour period from 11AM Wednesday to 11AM Thursday, we need everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings. There is not a guarantee warnings will be needed, but that is a growing possibility at this point.

ROUND 1 OF 2: “MESSY STORM MODE” WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… We will likely have quite a bit of rain and embedded thunderstorms happening across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida in the early afternoon hours of Wednesday. The better dynamics and thermodynamics for severe storms will set up during the evening hours, likely between 2PM and 7PM. This could manifest as clusters of storms or a line of storms. There even could be a big mass of rain and storms with a few supercells closer to the coast. We simply do not have a good grasp of the exact setup of how storms will develop just yet, but there is high confidence that heavy rain will happen at times on Wednesday with a few convective hazards (tornadoes and damaging winds) being possible. After this round of storms, we will probably have a lull in storm action late Wednesday evening into the early morning hours.

ROUND 2 OF 2: STRONG LINE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING… Cold air will be nudging up against warm, humid air along the advancing cold front on Thursday morning. This front will be slowly moving across our region likely around sunrise on Thursday. While timing remains a bit uncertain, a QLCS/squall line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. Once this line of storms moves through your particular locale, you’ll get an all clear and the severe weather risk will come to an end. This will likely happen in many spots from 6AM to 11AM on Thursday.

SUNNY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON… After the active weather during the middle part of the week, we get a nice Friday and nice weekend as a consolation prize. High temperatures Friday will be in the low-60s. Clearing skies are expected in the afternoon and evening hours. There should be a good amount of sunshine in the P.M. hours of Friday.

NICE, MILD WEEKEND AHEAD… Sunny skies are likely for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s each day with morning lows in the 40s. This is exactly where we should be, climatologically speaking, for early February. Get out and enjoy the weekend!

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

Have a nice Tuesday evening!

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We are now looking at the potential for two distinct rounds of severe weather. One will likely happen Wednesday evening and the other will likely happen Thursday morning. The main concerns will be damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and flash flooding. See the detailed post below that will debut publicly within the next hour. I will have your next RZW Exec update posted tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Have a nice evening!

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE; HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MIDWEEK… Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida as a big dip in the jet stream flings multiple shortwave troughs into our region. The main hazard concerns will be damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and flash flooding. Confidence has increased somewhat, although timing of the system is still a bit uncertain. Our best estimate as of Monday night is that we will have two distinct rounds of active weather. The first will be Wednesday during the P.M. hours and the second will be Thursday morning as a squall line develops and moves east of our area. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings starting Wednesday late morning. That is the summary, below are the details.

RAIN ON TUESDAY; SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES BEGIN WEDNESDAY… Rain will be possible on Tuesday across the region. Showers will begin tomorrow (Tuesday) morning across west Alabama primarily in areas west of the Alabama River. Rain coverage will steadily increase throughout the day. I am not expecting severe weather issues on Tuesday due to the lack of atmospheric instability across our area. There will be showers around at times though. Keep the rain gear handy! High temperatures on Tuesday will remain above our climatological norms for early February. Most spots will peak in the mid-70s.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The big takeaway from our latest forecast is that we have multiple times when strong to severe thunderstorms may happen. Basically in the 24 hour period from 11AM Wednesday to 11AM Thursday, we need everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings. There is not a guarantee warnings will be needed, but that is a growing possibility at this point.

ROUND 1 OF 2: “MESSY STORM MODE” WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… We will likely have quite a bit of rain and embedded thunderstorms happening across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida in the early afternoon hours of Wednesday. The better dynamics and thermodynamics for severe storms will set up during the evening hours, likely between 2PM and 7PM. This could manifest as clusters of storms or a line of storms. There even could be a big mass of rain and storms with a few supercells closer to the coast. We simply do not have a good grasp of the exact setup of how storms will develop just yet, but there is high confidence that heavy rain will happen at times on Wednesday with a few convective hazards (tornadoes and damaging winds) being possible. After this round of storms, we will probably have a lull in storm action late Wednesday evening into the early morning hours.

ROUND 2 OF 2: STRONG LINE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING… Cold air will be nudging up against warm, humid air along the advancing cold front on Thursday morning. This front will be slowly moving across our region likely around sunrise on Thursday. While timing remains a bit uncertain, a QLCS/squall line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. Once this line of storms moves through your particular locale, you’ll get an all clear and the severe weather risk will come to an end. This will likely happen in many spots from 6AM to 11AM on Thursday.

LEVEL 2 RISK IN PLACE FOR LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk zone for nearly all of the local area. The only areas NOT included in this risk zone are in northern parts of Clarke and Washington counties near Thomasville, Coffeeville, and Millry. Everyone else locally IS included. This means all parts of the following counties are included in the Level 2 risk zone: Monroe, Butler, Covington, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Mobile, Okaloosa, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties. A Level 2 risk simply means scattered instances of severe storms will be possible, including a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA… Much of the central part of Alabama is involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone where severe storms may happen, but are less likely. This includes places like Montgomery, Auburn, Demopolis, Selma, Butler, Livingston, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Clanton, Oneonta, Jasper, Alex City, Wetumpka, Prattville, and surrounding areas.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED… Regardless of if tornadoes or damaging wind gusts happen, I am increasingly concerned about the potential for flash flooding. 2 to 4 inches of rain is the forecast for most spots across the region with isolated higher amounts. The National Weather Service in Mobile has indicated a Flash Flood Watch may be issued because of this potential. Keep in mind, if you encounter a water-covered roadway, please “turn around, don’t drown.” We lose entirely too many people across America because they drive over a water-covered roadway and get swept away.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have your next detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice evening!

RZW EXEC: SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening to each of you! After an overall quiet pattern with a mix of dry and rainy days over the last two weeks, our weather pattern will begin to change during the upcoming week. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk of severe weather valid for Wednesday and Thursday (February 5-6). While details are scarce at this point since this potential severe weather event is still 5 days out, confidence is high enough to include our area in this risk zone. Be sure to check with me over the next few days in the public-facing/home (Refresh tab in lower left corner) area of the RZW app for the very latest information. As always, please let me know if you have decision support needs.

The public post that will debut later this evening is below. Have a great weekend!

GROWING CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone for much of the Deep South valid for Wednesday into Thursday of the upcoming week. It appears, based on early model indications, that all modes of severe weather will be possible. This includes tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. It is too early to know specifics on where individual severe weather risks (like tornadoes) will be highest. The risk will set up to our west on Wednesday and continue across our region Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Be sure to check back with me tomorrow morning and over the next few days as we get closer to this severe weather setup.

DEEP TROUGH & WARM SECTOR LIKELY… You may be wondering how and why the Storm Prediction Center posts an outlook like this so far out. SPC uses multiple weather models and simulations to help better understand the possibilities of what could happen across the continental United States for any given day. Model guidance has been consistent enough to warrant an “early red flag,” suggesting there is a growing potential for the outlooked areas to have severe weather. A trough in the jet stream will dip down across the Great Plains and ultimately move eastward into the Deep South. Combine that with the warm, unstable air that will likely be in place across our region on Wednesday into Thursday, and you get a recipe of ingredients coming together that could produce weather hazards, including tornadoes.

FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING… While the bulk of the rain has cleared out of our area this evening, there could be a few lingering areas of rain tonight into the morning hours of Saturday. Rain should be completely gone and to our east by 2PM on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will peak in the upper-50s but we rebound to around 67° by Sunday afternoon.

BETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY… We will need to enjoy Sunday and Monday as those will be the last sunny days until at least Friday of the upcoming week. Rain and storms will be possible Tuesday ahead of our severe weather risk setting up for Wednesday. High temperatures will rebound to the low-70s by Monday.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have your next detailed forecast update posted by 7:15AM on Saturday. See you then!

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY ON SATURDAY… RZW Exec partners, I hope you are having a nice Friday evening. The big headline remains severe storms remain possible on Saturday. There is a low-end risk of severe storms later this evening (detailed below) but vast majority of the severe storms are expected during the daytime hours of Saturday. Tornadoes and damaging winds continue to be our main concerns. I am growing more concerned by the hour about the potential for damaging wind gusts. The squall line that moves across our region is expected to tap into high winds in the midlevels of the atmosphere. The storms could easily bring some of these higher wind speeds down to the surface of the earth and knock down numerous trees. Power outages will be a real concern on Saturday.

The forecast remains on track. I have no changes to report other than the Level 3 risk has been expanded even farther north into the Tennessee Valley region (depicted below). Basically all of Alabama and all of northwest Florida are now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone. I am copying below our forecast discussion from the Noon public post. It remains on point. I’ve already talked to several of you that have called today. That’s what I am here for. Please let me know if you have specific questions or decision support needs. Note this will likely be the final RZW Exec update on this event as our public coverage and live, nonstop video coverage will probably be needed tomorrow. See you on the live stream!

VERY CONCERNING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND RISK ON SATURDAY… We have been focusing heavily on the tornado risk setting up for Saturday across Alabama and northwest Florida, but let me stress that I am quite concerned about the risk of damaging straight line winds setting up for Saturday across Alabama and northwest Florida. The graphic attached highlights the wind values at the 850 millibar height, or at approximately 5,000 feet above ground level in the atmosphere. These winds will be howling at 60-100 mph across the Deep South as a low-level jet streak moves from southwest to northeast across the region. The squall line that will move across the state and region will be able to easily tap into this and bring some of these winds down to the surface of the earth, thus some wind damage IS expected on Saturday in terms of trees being blown down. This could create scattered power outage problems. I have seen reports that Alabama Power and electric cooperatives are staging for this possibility, which I endorse and I think is a good, proactive call on their part. Definitely warranted in this case!

SPC MAINTAINS LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE… The Storm Prediction Center decided that the forecast is right on track and maintains their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone for nearly all of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, and Louisiana. The only change to report as of Noon is the Level 3 risk has been expanded to include areas farther north in north Alabama and southern Tennessee in the Tennessee Valley region. This expansion is driven largely by the increasing risk of damaging straight line winds in the strong squall line set to move through on Saturday.

TORNADO WATCH TO THE WEST… The first Tornado Watch of the year has been issued for parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas as the severe weather system takes shape to our west. Another Tornado Watch will be issued in the next 2 hours for parts of northeast Texas near Dallas.

The following information from the detailed video post this morning has been lightly edited and remains on point. If you missed that post, please review the information below for specifics.

EXPANDED LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK TO OUR WEST TODAY… Much of Arkansas, western Louisiana, eastern Texas, northwest Mississippi, extreme southeastern Tennessee, and southeastern Oklahoma are involved in the Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone where widespread damaging winds are expected in the severe storms later today. Not all risk levels are created equally, and this Level 4 risk is driven PRIMARILY by the high wind threat in that area. There still is a significant risk of tornadoes, perhaps a strong one or two, but clearly the big threat in those areas today will be severe thunderstorms capable of producing widespread wind damage. Areas near Memphis (TN), Shreveport (LA), Tyler (TX), Longview (TX), Mesquite (TX), and Garland (TX) are involved in the higher Level 4 risk, with areas like Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and Tulsa involved in the Level 3 risk zone today. This same system will move into our area on Saturday. Below is the risk valid NOW into TONIGHT.

LEVEL 3 RISK AREA ON SATURDAY… This remains unchanged as of 3:32PM on Friday. Much of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, and the northeast corner of Louisiana near New Orleans is involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this enhanced risk area. Here are a few of the locales involved in the Level 3 risk area. Note that even if your specific town isn’t included in this list, if you see surrounding towns or cities involved, you’re still included in the risk zone. Level 3 risk as of Wednesday night: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Tuscaloosa, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis.

RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY… Areas of sprinkles are possible this morning, primarily across west Alabama. Most spots will remain dry through this evening. General thunderstorms (probably well below severe limits) will be possible over the next few hours. High temperatures on this Friday have peaked near 70° in most spots as a warm front lifts from south to north across the area.

ROUND 1 OF 3: LOW-END RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING… The first risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida will be a *low confidence, low-medium impact* potential. Basically, the concern is we could have a few rotating storms move in from the Gulf of Mexico later this evening (probably between 6PM and 10PM, according to the latest data). There is a high chance that these storms don’t form, but IF they do, they may quickly turn severe. The hazards in this first round of storms would be a low-end tornado risk, aka brief, spin-up tornadoes. Again, this is a low confidence risk that has a good chance of never happening, but it’s important to at least mention the risk in case we get a rogue storm or two before midnight. The core of this risk would happen primarily across west Alabama where shear and instability values will be increasing this evening.

RAIN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT; MOSTLY DRY TO THE EAST… Rain chances will progressively rise throughout the evening and especially in the overnight hours. You’ll probably notice scattered, small showers progressively increase in number on the radar display. Showers will likely increase in coverage as we approach sunrise on Saturday morning.

ROUND 2 OF 3: SUPERCELLS & TORNADO RISK ON SATURDAY… The second risk for our local area involves the potential for supercell or discrete storms to form out ahead of the main squall line on Saturday. This is a *low-medium confidence, high impact* potential. If supercell storms form, they will do so in an environment that is favorable for tornado formation. In addition, there is some chance that some of the tornadoes could be strong or significant (EF2+). We note that some of the higher-resolution convective allowing models (CAMS) have suggested a very real potential for supercells forming between 9AM and 5PM on Saturday. If or when supercell thunderstorms form, our tornado risk would go up considerably.

ROUND 3 OF 3: SQUALL LINE FEATURING EMBEDDED TORNADOES & HIGH WIND… More often than not as of late, we get a weakening or paltry line of thunderstorms moving through our area that really doesn’t bring much of an impact except heavy rain and occasional lightning. That will almost certainly NOT be the case this time. This will be a significant, severe squall line of thunderstorms that will push across our region from 10AM to 6PM Saturday. This is a *high confidence, medium-high impact* potential, aka what we are most confident about in this particular severe weather setup. If and when your area goes under a severe thunderstorm warning, TAKE IT SERIOUSLY. Don’t drive in a severe thunderstorm warning! I would strongly suggest treating all severe thunderstorm warnings on Saturday like a tornado warning. I *EXPECT* scattered to numerous reports of trees being blown down because of this squall line, thus scattered power outages may quickly become a problem across our region.

SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AHEAD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, & NW FLORIDA… The wind speeds at about 5,000 feet off the ground (the 850 millibar height) are absolutely screaming with this severe weather setup. We’ve covered hundreds of severe weather days over the last 5 years since RedZone Weather started and I cannot recall an event where I’ve seen wind speeds at that height in the atmosphere like this. This will likely be a major wind event, almost like a derecho, across Mississippi and Alabama as this squall line moves through. The big concern is trees being blown down, which is yet another reason people should NOT be driving during severe thunderstorm warnings on Saturday!

THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FINALLY ENDS SATURDAY EVENING… It’s certainly not often that we get a solid WEEK of notice in advance of severe weather. The whole ordeal will come to an end by 7PM on Saturday as storms exit our area to the east into parts of the Wiregrass and the Florida Panhandle. There could be a few lingering rain showers into Saturday night. Rain clears out and we will likely be dry for Sunday morning.

FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING… Showers quickly return to the forecast on Sunday in the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day with high temperatures in the low-70s.

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as a warm front lifts northward and stalls across our region. For now, the severe weather risk on Monday looks marginal at most. There could be rumbles of thunder throughout the day with heavy rain being possible at times, but the overall severe weather risk on Monday is LOW for now.

UNSETTLED MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK… Warm, humid air will remain in place across the region until at least Wednesday of next week, allowing the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both days. Rain could be heavy at times and there could be some thunder involved each day, particularly in the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be in the mid-70s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should finally go lower and be closer to our seasonal norms by Thursday and Friday of the upcoming week.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon! No real changes to pass along from our previous RZW Exec update yesterday. The good news is our forecast and messaging is on track. The bad news is the forecast still supports a significant potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and a lower (albeit still notable) risk of flash flooding and large hail on Saturday. The one change to pass along today is that the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a rare Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone for parts of Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and eastern Texas valid for tomorrow (Friday). Our area in Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 3 risk, which is still quite significant, valid for Saturday.

The graphic below is the latest idea in terms of the timing of when severe weather will start across our area on Saturday. This will likely be a daytime event for most locales.

Below is the forecast discussion from this morning that debuted publicly at 7AM. This has been lightly edited to account for the addition of the higher Level 4 risk across northern Louisiana. Other than that, the forecast remains on track. Please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs or questions.

SHOWERS LIKELY LOCALLY ON FRIDAY; P.M. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE… Rain chances will rise throughout the day on Friday. Rain will start over west Alabama and progressively spread across the area from west to east. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low-70s and temperatures won’t be moving that much at all because of all the cloud cover. There could be a few thunderstorms between 3PM and 8PM Friday, but I am not expecting severe storms in this timeframe. Depending on the specific setup, there could be a few strong to marginally severe storms Friday night into Saturday morning AHEAD of our greater severe weather risk on Saturday during the daytime hours. See more about this in the “1st round” paragraph, below.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK UP TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY… SPC continues to outlook much of east Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone valid for FRIDAY, with a smaller area of higher Level 4 risk for areas near Shreveport in northern Louisiana. This includes a chance of significant severe weather, including strong tornadoes, across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. Please be aware of this heightened risk of severe storms if you’re traveling to these areas. This includes places like Shreveport (LA), Alexandria (LA), Lufkin (TX), and Houston (TX).

1ST ROUND: SMALL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY… After 8PM on Friday evening, we will need to start closely monitoring radar trends as there will be a conditional risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. I use the word “conditional” because there remains a high chance “severe weather ingredients” won’t come together this early. Atmospheric instability will be increasing to the point where we will have some thunder and lightning involved in the stronger storms Friday night. Some of this instability may be able to combine with the increasing low-level jet winds and produce a tornado or two. This “1st round” part of the severe weather risk locally will run from 8PM Friday to 6AM on Saturday. Once we get to 6 o’clock Saturday morning, that is when our severe weather risk will really start to ramp up. Details below in the “2nd round” paragraph.

2ND ROUND: SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY – TIMING… 6AM to 6PM Saturday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather seems most likely to happen. The core window for severe weather will happen across Alabama and northwest Florida between 10AM and 5PM. Confidence is now much higher in this timeframe now that we are within 48 hours of this severe weather potential. There may be further timing refinements needed over the next day or so. Please check back for the latest on severe weather timing both tonight and on Friday.

SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER OVERVIEW – WHAT TO EXPECT… We start Saturday morning at 6AM looking to our west at what probably will be a severe squall line of thunderstorms. There is some question as to whether we’ll have supercell/discrete storms out ahead of the main line of storms this early in the morning, but that IS a possibility. A Tornado Watch will probably first be posted for our area in the 4AM to 9AM timeframe. IF discrete storms start firing up or moving into our area from Mississippi, that will probably happen in the early morning (6AM to 9AM timeframe). Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and large hail will all be concerns on Saturday. Let’s discuss each hazard in detail, below.

LEVEL 3 RISK AREA ON SATURDAY… Much of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, and the northeast corner of Louisiana near New Orleans is involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this enhanced risk area. Here are a few of the locales involved in the Level 3 risk area. Note that even if your specific town isn’t included in this list, if you see surrounding towns or cities involved, you’re still included in the risk zone. Level 3 risk as of Wednesday night: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Tuscaloosa, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis.

TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE AREA; HIGHEST TORNADO RISK INLAND… Let me be clear in that ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida has at least some tornado risk on Saturday. As of Thursday morning, it appears the greater tornado risk will happen across inland areas of south Alabama in Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, and Butler counties and areas farther to the north in west-central Alabama. These are the areas where the greatest amounts of helicity, instability, and wind will come together to create the greatest tornado risk.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA… There will be substantial amounts of wind in the atmosphere capable of producing severe storms across our area on Saturday. I would not be surprised if we had many reports of trees being blown down because of straight-line wind with this event. It should be reiterated that if your area goes under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, this will be one of those events where we need to treat it like a Tornado Warning. The severe thunderstorm warnings mean business this time. Wind gusts of 70 mph may be possible when the squall line moves through midday on Saturday.

FLASH FLOODING RISK… If storms train over the same areas for multiple hours (this is a small possibility, especially if discrete storms happen out ahead of the main line of storms), the overall flash flooding risk will be elevated. If this happens, it is most likely to occur across parts of Mobile, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Most spots across our region will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain in total because of this event.

LARGE HAIL RISK… The risk of large hail is conditional on IF discrete, supercell thunderstorms can form out ahead of the main line of storms. Hail probably won’t be much of an issue for most locales, although we will need to maintain at least some risk of large hail due to the potential for discrete, isolated storms.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMES TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING… All of the severe weather issues will end no later than 5PM on Saturday as cooler, more stable air moves into our region from the west. Drier conditions are expected late Saturday night into early Sunday before more showers become possible Sunday.

UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD… More showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Sunday into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming week with temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. There have been some indications of a low-end severe weather risk Monday into Tuesday of next week, although it is too early to know for sure whether severe storms will be an issue in that timeframe. We’ll keep you posted. Let’s get through Saturday first.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

RZW EXEC: ASSESSING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SLATED FOR SATURDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening! We continue to look ahead to Saturday when we could have a significant round of severe weather with tornadoes and damaging winds being possible. No significant weather issues are expected tonight or tomorrow, but Friday could be a bit more interesting. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include our entire local area in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. This means that numerous severe storms are expected with a chance of a few strong tornadoes. I have broken everything down in the following long form discussion. We will begin to post much of the in-depth discussion publicly on Thursday morning. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I’ll have another update for you in RZW Exec tomorrow (Thursday). Thanks!

NO RAIN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY; CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW… Increasing cloudiness is the story for Thursday. There will be some peeks of sunshine into the afternoon hours, but most spots will be mostly cloudy or overcast by the time we get to sunset on Thursday at 5:03PM CST. High temperatures tomorrow will peak in the 67-70° range in most spots. There could be a few sprinkles or areas of light rain as early as Thursday evening. The greatest chance of any spot having rain before midnight Thursday will be over west Alabama in areas to the west of the Alabama River in parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Mobile counties. Rain chances will rise overnight and on Friday morning we could have showers in place across the area.

SHOWERS LIKELY LOCALLY ON FRIDAY; P.M. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE… Rain chances will rise throughout the day on Friday. Rain will start over west Alabama and progressively spread across the area from west to east. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low-70s and temperatures won’t be moving that much at all because of all the cloud cover. There could be a few thunderstorms between 3PM and 8PM Friday, but I am not expecting severe storms in this timeframe. Depending on the specific setup, there could be a few strong to marginally severe storms Friday night into Saturday morning AHEAD of our greater severe weather risk on Saturday during the daytime hours. See more about this in the “1st round” paragraph, below.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK UP TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY… SPC continues to outlook much of east Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone valid for FRIDAY. This includes a chance of significant severe weather, including strong tornadoes, across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. Please be aware of this heightened risk of severe storms if you’re traveling to these areas. This includes places like Shreveport (LA), Alexandria (LA), Lufkin (TX), and Houston (TX).

1ST ROUND: SMALL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY… After 8PM on Friday evening, we will need to start closely monitoring radar trends as there will be a conditional risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. I use the word “conditional” because there remains a high chance “severe weather ingredients” won’t come together this early. Atmospheric instability will be increasing to the point where we will have some thunder and lightning involved in the stronger storms Friday night. Some of this instability may be able to combine with the increasing low-level jet winds and produce a tornado or two. This “1st round” part of the severe weather risk locally will run from 8PM Friday to 6AM on Saturday. Once we get to 6 o’clock Saturday morning, that is when our severe weather risk will really start to ramp up. Details below in the “2nd round” paragraph.

2ND ROUND: SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY – TIMING… 6AM to 6PM Saturday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather seems most likely to happen. The core window for severe weather will happen across Alabama and northwest Florida between 8AM and 3PM. Confidence is now much higher in this timeframe now that we are within 48 hours of this severe weather potential. There may be further timing refinements needed over the next day or so. Please check back for the latest on severe weather timing both tonight and on Friday.

SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER OVERVIEW – WHAT TO EXPECT… We start Saturday morning at 6AM looking to our west at what probably will be a severe squall line of thunderstorms. There is some question as to whether we’ll have supercell/discrete storms out ahead of the main line of storms this early in the morning, but that IS a possibility. A Tornado Watch will probably first be posted for our area in the 4AM to 9AM timeframe. IF discrete storms start firing up or moving into our area from Mississippi, that will probably happen in the early morning (6AM to 9AM timeframe). Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and large hail will all be concerns on Saturday. Let’s discuss each hazard in detail, below.

TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE AREA; HIGHEST TORNADO RISK INLAND… Let me be clear in that ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida has at least some tornado risk on Saturday. As of Wednesday evening, it appears the greater tornado risk will happen across inland areas of south Alabama in Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, and Butler counties and areas farther to the north in west-central Alabama. These are the areas where the greatest amounts of helicity, instability, and wind will come together to create the greatest tornado risk.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA… There will be substantial amounts of wind in the atmosphere capable of producing severe storms across our area on Saturday. I would not be surprised if we had many reports of trees being blown down because of straight-line wind with this event. It should be reiterated that if your area goes under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, this will be one of those events where we need to treat it like a Tornado Warning. The severe thunderstorm warnings mean business this time. Wind gusts of 70 mph may be possible when the squall line moves through midday on Saturday.

FLASH FLOODING RISK… If storms train over the same areas for multiple hours (this is a small possibility, especially if discrete storms happen out ahead of the main line of storms), the overall flash flooding risk will be elevated. If this happens, it is most likely to occur across parts of Mobile, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Most spots across our region will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain in total because of this event.

LARGE HAIL RISK… The risk of large hail is conditional on IF discrete, supercell thunderstorms can form out ahead of the main line of storms. Hail probably won’t be much of an issue for most locales, although we will need to maintain at least some risk of large hail due to the potential for discrete, isolated storms.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMES TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING… All of the severe weather issues will end no later than 5PM on Saturday as cooler, more stable air moves into our region from the west. Drier conditions are expected late Saturday night into early Sunday before more showers become possible Sunday.

UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD… More showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Sunday into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming week with temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. There have been some indications of a low-end severe weather risk Monday into Tuesday of next week, although it is too early to know for sure whether severe storms will be an issue in that timeframe. We’ll keep you posted. Let’s get through Saturday first.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

Please let me know if you have any decision support needs concerning this upcoming severe weather event. Thank you and have a great Wednesday evening!

SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec members, good Tuesday morning! We have a potentially significant round of severe weather ahead for Saturday, January 11. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a rare, Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone **five days out** from this potential event. I am growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of a few significant/strong tornadoes across parts of the Deep South (including Alabama & NW Florida) on Saturday, although I will refrain (for now) from using that specific language in our public forecast messaging to ensure model trends and guidance continues to show that potential closer to the event. There still is plenty of time for the trends to show a weaker solution. There also is a potential for a stronger event that would support the need for further outlook upgrades across our area. Please let this message serve as a very early “heads up” that we could have a hazardous round of severe weather with tornadoes being the primary concern. Here is the information I will be posting publicly within the hour.

OUTLOOK UPGRADE: LEVEL 3 ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SATURDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Alabama, Mississippi, and parts of northwest Florida and Louisiana into their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Saturday. Parameters continue to suggest an increasing chance of hazards, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and large hail. While details are still coming into focus, there is increasing confidence that this could be a significant severe weather event with a potentially enhanced tornado risk across parts of the Deep South.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING SATURDAY… This is HIGHLY subject to change, so please check back with me in the days ahead. Right now, our best estimate of when severe weather will be most likely across our region in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be during the daytime hours of SATURDAY, January 11. Further data may cause that timeframe to be changed. In addition, rain will begin long before the risk of strong to severe storms. Rain is likely across our area at times on Friday.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more details and updates in the RedZone Weather app later today. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a good Tuesday afternoon!

RISK OF STRONG STORMS THURSDAY IN P.M. HOURS… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening. Happy New Year! 2020 is set to start off with a chance of strong to severe storms on Thursday. The big takeaways from the long form post (below) is that we have somewhat of a “double barrel risk” on Thursday into early Friday.

Confidence is LOW that we may have a few supercell storms develop tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

Confidence is HIGH that we will have a line of weakening thunderstorms late Thursday evening that will move across our region.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains our area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk, for now. Outlook upgrades will be possible overnight. Please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs. Have a great evening! See the information we will debut publicly in the next 30 minutes below.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS… The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid Thursday evening into Friday morning. The two concerns will be a main line of thunderstorms that will likely weaken as it approaches our area from the west late Thursday evening. Before we get to that, there is also a conditional risk of a few discrete, supercell thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes on Thursday afternoon. While the core risk appears to be setting up just to our west across parts of southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, we all have at least a low-end risk across all parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Let’s look at details.

CONDITIONAL FIRST ROUND OF STORMS… The first risk of severe weather on Thursday will be a CONDITIONAL risk of strong to severe storms in the afternoon and early evening hours. By “conditional,” I mean certain things will have to happen in order for this first threat to materialize at all. There is a chance this first threat won’t ever happen, but more than a few models are advertising this potential, thus I believe it is wise to at least mention the possibility. The concern is that we could have some isolated, discrete supercell thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes across south Alabama and northwest Florida. If the cap can break, storms will grow to be quite tall in the atmosphere, potentially leading to severe storms that have the potential to produce a few tornadoes. Looking at model guidance, I would suggest there is a 30-40% chance of this first threat materializing with a 60-70% chance of us just having a few general showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening. I’ll be closely monitoring radar trends tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. We will bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.

MAIN LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING… Thunderstorms will develop to our west tomorrow (Thursday) morning. This will probably be a line (QLCS/squall line) of storms that forms across west Mississippi and east-central Louisiana. This line of storms will move eastward throughout the day and will probably be set to move into the far western stretches of south Alabama by 8PM tomorrow evening. The line of storms will move across our area from 8PM Thursday to 6AM Friday. If storms train over the same areas, we could have some flash flooding issues set up. The greatest chance of this will be over west Alabama in Clarke, Wilcox, Marengo, Choctaw, and Washington counties. This line of storms will likely be weakening as it enters our area and ultimately runs out of instability to work with.

GREATER RISK ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI & EAST LOUISIANA… The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) introduced a Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk of scattered severe storms for parts of southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. These are the focus areas where the “severe weather ingredients” will be primed to produce tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. We note there is a possibility SPC will upgrade at least part of our area into this Level 2 risk zone in their overnight update. We’ll bring you the latest when it happens in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to check back with me for the latest on our local risk level on Thursday morning in the forecast video.

SEVERE WEATHER & RAIN TIMING… While a few rain showers are happening this morning across our region and just to our west, the core of the rain issues won’t happen until later today into tonight. There is a good chance some of us will remain dry throughout the day, although I can’t rule out isolated showers pretty much all day. The core of the severe weather issues will happen from 4PM Thursday to 1AM Friday, although as mentioned in the second paragraph (above) there is a conditional risk of supercells that could produce tornadoes as early as 1PM.

MAIN CONCERNS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… The hazards we’ll be most concerned about with this event will be the tornado potential and the chance of stronger storms that could produce damaging straight line wind gusts. Flash flooding could also become an issue, primarily across west Alabama in areas west of the Alabama River.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT… Why all the nasty weather potential? It’s because of a surface low developing to our west tonight across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure will tap into an impulse/shortwave moving by in the atmosphere on Thursday, leading to a chance of strong to severe storms.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Thursday. See you then!

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday afternoon! We’re looking ahead to the latter half of the weekend when we could have a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms move across our area. A cold front will approach our area from the northwest on Sunday. This frontal boundary will be the focus zone for where a few strong to severe storms may fire up as it crosses our area. I think, based on model trends over the last 72 hours, this is one of the more meager severe weather setups we’ve had, thus I am not expecting widespread issues. The main concerns will be a brief, spin-up tornado or two and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. Again, not expecting these hazards to be numerous across the region, but the risk is “high enough” to warrant at least mentioning it throughout the weekend. No flash flooding issues are expected and large hail is not expected. I will continue to monitor parameters as there is a chance this risk could increase somewhat. Below is the post we will push publicly within the hour. As always, let me know if you have specific questions. Have a nice Friday evening!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk zone valid from Sunday into early Monday. Model guidance is now highlighting the possibility of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms moving across our area. The main concerns will be brief, spin-up tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The latest guidance suggests this severe weather potential will happen a bit later than initially expected, likely late Sunday into early Monday. Severe weather parameters seem to be increasing somewhat, thus we will need to monitor this potential as we go into the weekend. Be sure to check back with me Saturday morning for our next detailed update that will be posted by 7:15AM. Let’s look at details.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR ALL OF OUR LOCAL AREA… SPC includes the entire state of Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone. This risk zone also includes parts of southern Tennessee, much of eastern Mississippi, and the western Georgia. There is a chance a slightly higher risk level may be warranted for parts of our area on Saturday.

MAIN CONCERNS: LOW-END TORNADO RISK, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… There is a concern we could have a few discrete supercell storms out ahead of the main squall line that develops along the advancing frontal boundary, although this idea is certainly NOT set in stone. If models continue to show that potential (for supercells), we will need to adjust risk levels even higher. For now, we’re expecting a line of strong to severe storms that moves across our area from northwest to southeast late in the day on Sunday extending into the very early morning hours of Monday.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… 5PM Sunday to 5AM Monday is the 12 hour window in which storms will be most likely to be strong or severe. The core risk will likely be from 9PM Sunday to 2AM Monday. This timing will probably need to be adjusted in the next 48 hours before this event. Please check back with me tomorrow (Saturday) morning for the latest.

I’ll have more details posted in the RedZone Weather app later today, tonight, and on Saturday as this severe weather potential gets closer. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice evening!

RZW EXEC: FORECAST ON TRACK; STORMS TO THE WEST… RZW Exec members, good Monday afternoon to you! The big headline right now is our forecast remains on track. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are now happening to our west across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. This system is moving toward our local area and will reach parts of west Alabama this evening. The timeframe has not changed. We are expecting the core risk to happen between 9PM tonight and 9AM on Tuesday, although there could be a few strong to severe storms well in advance of the main line of storms this evening. Below is the post we will debut publicly shortly. Please let me know if you have any decision-support needs this afternoon.

LEVEL 4 RISK TO OUR WEST; SEVERE STORMS LIKELY LATER LOCALLY… The Storm Prediction Center has added an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone to parts of southwest Mississippi and Louisiana on this Monday afternoon. The severe weather risk locally across south Alabama and northwest Florida is set to ramp up late this evening into the overnight hours. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail will all be possible in the stronger storms this evening into Tuesday morning. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings this evening, tonight, and something that will wake you up when you go to sleep tonight. A few midday notes are below.

TORNADO WARNINGS TO THE WEST… There have already been several tornado warnings across northern Louisiana and west Mississippi this morning. We note a new Tornado Watch is now in effect for these areas until 6PM tonight. This new tornado watch is right over the same areas that have the highest tornado risk today near Jackson (MS), Alexandria (LA), Baton Rouge (LA), McComb (MS), and Monroe (LA).

TORNADO WATCH LIKELY LOCALLY LATER… I expect a Tornado Watch to likely be issued for parts of our area later today, probably at some point after 5PM. Remember, a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes whereas a WARNING means a tornado has been sighted or confirmed by meteorologists using doppler radar.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON… Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across west Alabama over the next several hours. This means that intermittent rain and storms could happen as early as 2PM across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties. The overall severe weather risk will increase later this evening, however, and I’m not expecting many (if any) warnings locally now through 3PM.

Below is some review information that have been tweaked slightly to reflect the latest updates.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS THIS EVENING… While the tornado risk will be highest in the overnight hours as a strong to severe line of thunderstorms moves across our region, I can’t rule out supercell thunderstorms that develop well out ahead of the main line this afternoon. We encourage everyone to be “severe weather ready” over the next few hours *just in case* we have storms firing out ahead of the main line of storms. There certainly is no guarantee that discrete supercells will form in this environment, but we note that some models have alluded to that possibility.

CORE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAPPENS OVERNIGHT… The greatest risk of severe weather with this event will happen tonight from 9PM to 9AM on Tuesday. There could be somewhat of a “messy storm mode,” in that this could be a squall line of storms, but we very well could have a squall line with more supercell-like structures involved. This could potentially increase the overall tornado risk across the area. We will know more about the storm mode overnight once the actual storms develop later today back to our west across Mississippi and Louisiana.

MAIN HAZARDS TONIGHT: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The tornado risk locally tonight into Tuesday early morning will be highest across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties where a “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” looks to set up. If you’re in these counties, be aware that your tornado potential looks a bit higher. We ALL, however, have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also could be some large hail involved in the stronger storms. Flash flooding could briefly become an issue as the main line of storms passes through our region. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with this event!

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 9PM tonight to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the 12 hour window when the main line of storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM tonight to 5AM Tuesday. Rain showers may happen earlier this evening and extend into Tuesday afternoon long after the severe weather risk has come to an end.

LEVEL 4 RISK FOR PARTS OF MS & LA TO OUR WEST… Portions of Mississippi and Louisiana are now involved in an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) high-end severe weather risk. This is driven by the potential for multiple, significant tornadoes in southwest Mississippi and northeast Louisiana.

LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes areas near Butler, Pennington, Demopolis, Eutaw, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, York, Geiger, Forkland, and surrounding areas in west-central Alabama. Jackson (MS), Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Meridian, Alexandria (LA) are also included in this higher Level 3 risk zone. This enhanced risk is used by the Storm Prediction Center to designate where the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” is set to come together.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL AREA… ALL of our local area in south Alabama is now included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe storms. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Pensacola Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, Loxley, Silverhill, Bay Minette, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Leroy, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Carolina, River Falls, Molino, Jay, Century, Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Geneva, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Dothan, Fort Rucker, Eglin AFB, and Eufaula. We note much of central and north Alabama is also included in this risk zone. Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Alex City, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Centreville, Cullman, Jasper, Boaz, Oneonta, Fayette, Russellville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Hamilton are involved in the Level 2 risk area.

SHARPLY COLDER ON TUESDAY… The cold front partially responsible for all of this severe weather action will move through our region on Tuesday morning behind the main line of storms. Temperatures will turn sharply colder throughout the day on Tuesday. The technical high temperature on Tuesday will happen just after midnight, with temperatures declining all day. We’ll be in the 40s across south Alabama and northwest Florida by Tuesday afternoon, falling into the upper-30s by the late evening hours.

COOL, DRY MIDWEEK; BELOW FREEZING IN EARLY MORNING HOURS… Cold, dry air will have an unfettered path into our region from the northwest after the passage of the cold front this week. We expect multiple nights with below freezing temperatures. See the 7 Day Forecast graphic in the attached video for more info.

MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday looks to be Friday into Saturday when we could have a few showers around. We’ll focus on this weather system more in the days ahead.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day into the night in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Be sure to check back with me throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest information.

I’ll have many more updates this afternoon and this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Please check with me there for the latest information. I’ll be back on Facebook Live and in our live video stream if/when tornado warnings are required locally. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a good Monday evening and stay safe!

SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 16… RZW Exec members, good Sunday evening! There is a growing chance that we will have a round of strong to severe thunderstorms move across our region tomorrow (Monday, December 16) into the early morning hours of Tuesday. I am concerned about the increasing parameters that could support a few tornadoes. We will have a potential for a “double barrel” threat, meaning one round of storms in the afternoon then another round overnight into Tuesday morning. One thing to keep in mind with this system is that unlike the previous severe weather events we have had over the last few weeks, instability in the atmosphere will actually INCREASE overnight into Tuesday. This will allow storms to remain severe long after sunset Monday evening. Please see the public details below and let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY MONDAY P.M. INTO EARLY TUESDAY… Tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible Monday into early Tuesday as a potent weather system moves across south Alabama and northwest Florida. A Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk is in place for parts of west Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana with the nearly all of our local area involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk.There is some concern we could have supercell thunderstorms as early as Monday afternoon, but that is a low confidence scenario. The bigger concern with much higher confidence is that we will have severe storms Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This severe weather episode will likely manifest in the form of a strong to severe line of storms with embedded supercell-like structures. What does this mean for you? It means we all have a risk of experiencing damaging straight line wind gusts with a chance of a few isolated tornadoes Monday into Tuesday morning. The big takeaway is we encourage everyone to have a way to get the urgent weather warnings that may be needed tomorrow! NOW is the time to make sure you have a way to get the warnings. Once a warning is issued, please do something about it and get to a safe place. That is the summary, below are extensive details.

FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY… There is a chance we could have some early morning small showers in place across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Instability should be too low to allow for any severe weather before Noon on Monday.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON… We note that some of the higher-resolution weather models are showing a potential for strong to severe storms to fire up Monday afternoon, well in advance of the main line of storms that is set to move through much later. IF this scenario happens, we would have to monitor for the potential for tornadoes and large hail in these discrete, isolated storms. While this potential is low confidence, it is still worth mentioning as the tornado risk would ramp up considerably for our area if this indeed happens. The overall severe weather risk later Monday into Tuesday has much higher confidence. The big headline here is we could potentially have multiple waves of severe weather with one happening Monday afternoon, then a longer duration wave Monday night into early Tuesday.

ISOLATED TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERNS… The tornado risk locally Monday evening into Tuesday early morning will be highest across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties where a “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” looks to set up. If you’re in these counties, be aware that your tornado potential looks a bit higher. We ALL, however, have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also could be some large hail involved in the stronger storms. Flash flooding could briefly become an issue as the main line of storms passes through our region. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with this event!

TIMING OF SEVERE STORMS & RAIN CHANCES… This has changed somewhat since last night. There is now a LOW confidence, conditional risk of severe storms from 1PM to 6PM Monday. If any storms happen Monday afternoon (and that’s a big IF at this point), they likely would come to an end in the early evening. We get a lull in the action until the late evening hours. 9PM Monday to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the 12 hour window when the main line of storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM Monday to 5AM Tuesday. Rain showers may happen earlier Monday evening and extend into Tuesday afternoon long after the severe weather risk has come to an end. Be sure to check back with me for updates Monday morning on the evolving severe weather timing!

LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes areas near Butler, Pennington, Demopolis, Eutaw, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, York, Geiger, Forkland, and surrounding areas in west-central Alabama. Jackson (MS), Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Meridian, Alexandria (LA) are also included in this higher Level 3 risk zone. This enhanced risk is used by the Storm Prediction Center to designate where the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” is set to come together.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA… Vast majority of our local area in south Alabama remains included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe storms. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Pensacola Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, Loxley, Silverhill, Bay Minette, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Leroy, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Carolina, River Falls, Molino, Jay, and Century are all included in this Level 2 risk, where isolated severe storms may happen. We note much of central and north Alabama is also included in this risk zone. Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Centreville, Cullman, Jasper, Boaz, Oneonta, Fayette, Russellville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Hamilton are involved in the Level 2 risk area.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA… SPC has decided to lower parts of Covington, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa into the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. We note that all of southeast Alabama near Dothan, Enterprise, and Geneva is also included in this zone. This includes areas like Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Geneva, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Dothan, Fort Rucker, Eglin AFB, Eufaula, and Auburn (AL).

Please me know if you have any decision-support needs for this severe weather event. Please join us on Facebook Live and in the Live tab of the RedZone Weather app if/when tornado warnings are required for our local area. Have a nice evening!

SNOW POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN NORTH ALABAMA; NO SNOW LOCALLY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! There is a growing chance that the far northern stretches of Alabama and parts of Tennessee will have a dusting to 1 inch of accumulating snow on Tuesday evening. While confidence is near certain that we will NOT have any snow or wintry precipitation on Tuesday across south Alabama or northwest Florida, we will have some rain and general (non-severe) thunderstorms around. The greatest chance for rain on Tuesday will be from 10AM to 6PM with rain being possible late Tuesday night as well. Here is the post we will debut publicly this evening:

SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING; NO SNOW LOCALLY… There will likely be a changeover from rain to snow across the far northern part of Alabama near Florence, Muscle Shoals, Decatur, and Huntsville on Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. No snow or mixed precipitation is expected anywhere close by south Alabama or northwest Florida. For us, the weather story will be RAIN on Tuesday into Wednesday with much colder air moving in. If you’re looking for snow or a wintry mix, you’re going to have to travel at least to areas north of Birmingham. Temperatures will simply be too warm for our local area to have any snow or wintry precipitation.

GREATEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN ALABAMA NEAR FLORENCE… The National Weather Service in Huntsville continues to suggest that the greatest chance of accumulating snow will probably happen in Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, or Limestone counties in northwest Alabama. This includes areas like Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Moulton, Athens, and Ardmore. These are communities in the far northern tier of the state near the Alabama-Tennessee state line. Most spots will have a light dusting of snow (<0.25” or less) but some spots may pick up upwards of 1” of snow before the precipitation moves out to the east. MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED… If you’re traveling to north Alabama, particularly to areas north of U.S. Highway 278, be aware of the potential for rain, sleet, and snow on Tuesday afternoon extending to early Wednesday morning across northeast Alabama. While the travel impacts should be pretty limited, there could be some slick spots on area roadways across north Alabama.

COLD RAIN FOR LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… Temperatures will be quite warm again on Tuesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida ahead of the advancing cold front. High temperatures will again be in the 70s. Once the cold front passes through your respective location, however, there will probably be a quick 10-20 degree drop in the temperature. Rain will become increasingly likely throughout the day on Tuesday and linger into Wednesday. Again, unfortunately for snow lovers locally, no snow or mixed precipitation is expected anywhere near the southern half of Alabama or in northwest Florida.

I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… RZW Exec members, I hope you’re each having a nice Veterans Day Monday. We have a strong cold front set to arrive in our area around 3AM on Tuesday. This cold front will usher in the coldest air of the fall season we’ve had so far. We will have rain at times this evening into the overnight hours. While we could have a few sleet pellets or small snow flurries on the back edge of the band of precipitation on Tuesday morning between 6AM and 9AM across parts of Choctaw, Washington, and Clarke counties, I am not expecting significant winter weather impacts across vast majority of our region at this time. This will be a cold rain event for most of us with no wintry precipitation. No sleet or ice accumulations are expected across our area.

VERY COLD TUESDAY… There is a high chance that temperatures “go the wrong way” on Tuesday. Our technical high temperature will happen just after midnight when most spots are in the 60s. The cold front will move by between 2AM and 8AM, bringing down temperatures into the 40s by 8AM Tuesday. Most spots will remain in the 40s all day Tuesday with a cold 5-15 mph wind out of the northwest. Wind chill values may be in the 30s all day on Tuesday, which will probably go down as one of our coldest days of 2019.

FREEZE WATCH FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Freeze Watch valid from 6PM Tuesday to 9AM on Wednesday. This Freeze Watch is in effect for the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida. There is a very high chance this will need to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning later today. These products are issued at the beginning and end of the growing season to alert farmers and the general public that an unseasonable freeze is expected.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 20s WEDNESDAY MORNING… Temperatures will be below 30 degrees for several hours on Wednesday morning, probably from 1AM to 8AM. Our forecast calls for most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida to find a minimum air temperature at 6AM Wednesday between 25-29°. The wind chill during this time frame will be in the 17-21° range due to the strong northwest wind.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATER THIS WEEK… This will be a pronounced cold snap through Thursday. Temperatures will drop below freezing again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We warm into the 60s by Thursday with lows in the 40s this weekend. This won’t be a long duration, weeklong freeze event or anything close to that, but it IS a classic fall cold snap for the Deep South with two nights of temperatures below freezing.

Please let me know if you have any decision support needs related to this cold snap. Have a great evening!

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING… RZW Exec members, good evening! The Storm Prediction Center has hastily issued an update to their morning convective outlook including much of south Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk valid through this evening. The atmosphere is a bit more volitile and unstable than expected today, thus some of the storms may ramp up and produce brief tornadoes over the next few hours. Areas in the darker shade of green are now involved in the low-end risk zone.

WHAT TO EXPECT: NEXT FEW HOURS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across our area before rain becomes more stratiform and consistent later this evening. One or two of the storms this evening may ramp up to strong or severe levels. We note that storms have “overperformed” today in terms of the lightning output. This is often a sign that instability in the atmosphere may be a bit higher, and thus storms may have a bit more energy to work with than models suggested.

TORNADO WARNING EARLIER… We had a round of tornado warning coverage that started about an hour ago due to a cell that ramped up quickly near Prichard. Jay Ates, a gentleman who apparently works at one of the ship yards near there, sent us a video of a brief, spin-up tornado that happened. The cell ramped up over the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta before weakening as it moved into Baldwin County near areas north of Spanish Fort. Atmospheric parameters have not appeared favorable for severe weather today, but this situation goes to show that we still have a LOT to learn in the world of meteorology and there is still an element of unpredictability.

If we have more tornado warnings in the hours ahead, be sure to join me in our uninterrupted Facebook Live coverage or in the Live tab here in the RedZone Weather app!

GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN GULF… RZW Exec members, good Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico (INVEST 97L) that now has a 50% chance of tropical storm formation over the next 2 days. Regardless of if formal development happens, this system will be a contributing factor to the high rain chances as we go into Friday and Saturday as the moisture from this lifts northward. I am not expecting major impacts from this system across south Alabama and northwest Florida at this time, regardless of if formal development happens. We will have significant rain chances this weekend, but hazardous weather is not expected at this time. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Here is the public post we will debut in the next few hours…

GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN WESTERN GULF… There is now a 40-50% chance that an area of low pressure (branded as INVEST 97L) currently situated in the Bay of Campeche becomes a tropical storm or subtropical storm as the system moves northward over the next 2-3 days. Let me be clear in stating that regardless of if this system develops into a tropical storm (or not), hazardous weather impacts from this system are NOT expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Rain, yes. Major hazards, no. This system is one of the reasons rain chances remain elevated as we go into Friday and Saturday.

INVEST 97L GAINING STRENGTH… The disturbance in the southern Gulf has become more defined and better organized this morning. The infrared satellite loop shows a large burst of convection that has formed in the last 6 hours. This means that the system probably is encountering an environment that may be more supportive of development in the hours ahead.

POTENTIAL SETUP OF 97L… We note the Global Forecast System and the ECMWF/Euro are more in sync today as far as the suggestion of copious amounts of moisture moving northward on Friday and Saturday into parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Some of this moisture will cause heavy rain across parts of our local area as well, specifically west Alabama.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL LIKELY TO BE WET ON FRIDAY NIGHT… Several schools and school systems across the region have opted to move their high school football games to this (Thursday) evening to avoid the rain that is expected on Friday. For the games tonight, we expect dry conditions with temperatures near 70° under cloudy skies. For the games that are still scheduled on Friday, rain is likely in most spots locally, especially across west Alabama. Temperatures will be in the upper-60s at most of the games inland and near 70° closer to the coast. Keep that rain gear handy and with you! We’ll have radar updates on Friday night as needed in the RedZone Weather app.

RAIN TOTALS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1-2” RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY… Most of the heavier rain on Friday into Saturday will happen west of the Alabama River in west Alabama. Most spots in Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Choctaw counties will probably have upwards of 2 inches of rain in total while communities farther to the east like Andalusia, Brewton, Evergreen, and Greenville may only pick up 1” of rain in total or less. You can see the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast graphic (attached) issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK… Rain chances will remain at least somewhat elevated Sunday through Wednesday of the upcoming week as a stalled frontal boundary meanders across our region. High temperatures will consistently be in the 70s. It probably won’t be an “all day washout” on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday, but there will likely be showers and storms around each day. We’ll keep you posted about it all in the RedZone Weather app.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good Monday morning! We’re watching radar trends to our west this morning as rain and storms move toward our local area. The forecast remains on track: A strong to severe line of thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening. The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 1PM today to 1AM Tuesday, with the core window being from 4PM to 11PM. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, although a few, brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

STORMS OVER LOUISIANA NOW… There is a chance that the mesoscale convective system (MCS) in place over Louisiana right now may help to potentially limit strong to severe storms across our region. Models did not do a good job of picking up this feature in advance, but it is very obvious that the heavy rain and general thunderstorms in progress across much of Louisiana is limiting the overall severe weather potential there. The questions, at this point, are how long this large complex of rain and storms survives AND how far east it moves. If this MCS can move into our area and bring a drenching, consistent rain this afternoon, this will greatly help to mitigate the severe weather potential. If the MCS fades out to our west, there is a higher chance of severe weather locally. This is something I’ll be watching carefully over the next few hours. You can see this in action on the regional radar display…

I will have updates available in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app (Refresh/home tab) throughout the day. As always, please let me know if you have any weather-related decision support needs that I can assist you with.

The discussion points from this morning remain on track.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… All of our local area is included in the slight, Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for today (Monday, October 21) into tonight. This means that isolated severe storms are expected. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Foley, Orange Beach, Thomasville, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Century, Molino, Jay, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Crestview, Baker, Destin, and Fort Walton Beach. We also note that Troy, Geneva, Elba, Enterprise, Camden, Selma, Demopolis, Hayneville, Livingston, Eutaw, and Butler are included in the Level 2 risk zone.

LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR WEST… SPC has included much of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone as well. This is where the greatest combination of “severe weather ingredients” will be in place today into tonight. We note that New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, Jackson (MS), Memphis (TN), Shreveport (LA), and Monroe (LA) are included in this Level 2 risk zone.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR NORTH ALABAMA… The northern half of Alabama and much of east Alabama is included in the Level 1, marginal, low-end severe weather risk zone. This includes places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Alex City, Montgomery, Dothan, Talladega, Gadsden, Anniston, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Fayette, Jasper, Oneonta, Boaz, Clanton, Tuskegee, Prattville, and Wetumpka.

MAIN CONCERN LOCALLY: SQUALL LINE… We’ll be closely monitoring a developing QLCS/squall line that will set up to our west today across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This line of strong to potentially severe storms will move eastward across our region starting this afternoon into this evening. There could be a few showers or storms around before the line arrives, but widespread development of discrete cells out ahead of the line is unlikely as of now.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING TODAY… The greatest concern for strong to severe storms across our local area will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. This is valid for south Alabama and northwest Florida: The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 1PM Monday to 1AM Tuesday, with the core window being from 4PM to 11PM.

RAIN TIMING TODAY… There could be a few isolated showers around this morning into this afternoon, but clearly the greatest rain chance will happen when the squall line of storms moves by this afternoon into this evening. Keep the rain jacket close by throughout the day.