P.M. SCATTERED STORMS TODAY; DISTURBANCE IN GULF MOVING EAST… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up in the afternoon and evening hours on this Wednesday. Not every community will have rain before the end of the day but be aware that where storms do fire up, downpours are likely. Widespread severe weather is not expected today and the tornado risk remains near zero. The stronger pop-up storms today will produce cloud-to-ground lightning, loud thunder, gusty winds, and torrential downpours of rain. Rain chances will be even higher tomorrow (Thursday) as a tropical disturbance flings in more Gulf moisture into our region.

DISTURBANCE IN CENTRAL GULF TO MOVE EAST… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates there is a 20% chance of a tropical storm forming near the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle where we are) in the days ahead. This system will cause an increased risk of rip currents locally and higher rain chances Thursday. From NHC: “An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.The system is then forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula later this week.”

MORE POP-UP STORMS LOCALLY THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND… Thursday will feature scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of more P.M. pop-up storms on Friday and into the weekend. The good news is there are currently no signs of any organized severe weather events anytime soon. The bad news is some of the pop-up storms each day may be strong, with gusty winds, lightning, loud thunder, and heavy rain being possible. No real way to pinpoint where these summertime storms will form, but be aware of the potential for storms each day. Most of these storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours during the peak heat hours. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s in the days ahead.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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DISTURBANCE IN GULF TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA; HURRICANE SEASON ABOUT TO BEGIN… Hurricane season officially kicks off on Thursday, but we are already watching our first Gulf disturbance of the year. This system is moving toward the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle where we are, but the Peninsula) where rain and thunderstorms are expected in the days ahead. Significant local impacts are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida from this system, regardless of if formal development happens. Locally, more pop-up P.M. storms are in the forecast over the next several days.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates this developing disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 10-20% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next 5-7 days. Here is the discussion from NHC: “An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula later this week.”

LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DISTURBANCE: INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY… Pop-up thunderstorms will continue to be the norm across south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next several days. Rain chances will be particularly elevated on Thursday when Gulf moisture will be most pronounced across the local area. In addition to higher rain chances on Thursday, the risk of rip currents will be elevated at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Friday. Widespread, significant severe weather is NOT expected across Alabama or northwest Florida from the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

BIG RAIN EVENT AHEAD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA… The main impact in the United States from this developing tropical disturbance will be the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the central and southern parts of Florida. Places in or near Tampa, Ft. Myers, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and the Florida Keys may pick up 2-4″ of rainfall through the weekend.

HURRICANE SEASON KICKS OFF THURSDAY… The official start of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season happens this Thursday, June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a “near normal” season with 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 4 major hurricanes. I always caution folks to not really get caught up in the seasonal outlooks as it only takes one storm to make a hurricane season memorable for our specific local area.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have a detailed look at the local forecast tomorrow morning in the next regularly scheduled video that will debut by 7:15AM.

Have a nice Tuesday evening!

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