4:24PM July 23, 2021

40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING NEAR FLORIDA; FUTURE TRACK UNCERTAIN… An area of low pressure, now branded as INVEST 90L, currently situated east of the Florida Peninsula in the western Atlantic Ocean may strengthen and become a tropical storm over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 40% chance of a tropical storm forming east of Florida, just north of The Bahamas through the weekend. Unfortunately, confidence in exactly where this developing system will end up is exceptionally low right now. Model guidance consistently suggested early on that this system would ultimately move out to sea into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. That idea has been complicated today by the fact that an entire suite of models has now shifted and is now suggesting the idea that the system may develop, cross the Florida Peninsula, and end up in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

SEVERAL TRACK SCENARIOS POSSIBLE… One thing is certain regarding the immediate future of INVEST 90L: The system won’t be going anywhere fast, over the next 24-48 hours at least. Steering currents over the system remain weak. That is not good news, necessarily, as the system is very near the warm waters of the northward-moving Gulf Stream, located just east of the Florida Peninsula. The Global Forecast System (GFS) and many other models continue to show this system remaining fairly weak and ultimately moving the system out to sea into the Atlantic, which would be a best case scenario. Today, the ECMWF/Euro suite of models shows the system developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm before making landfall in the Florida Peninsula some time this weekend before moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday or early next week. As recently as this morning, local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this system seemed highly unlikely. Unfortunately, with this change in model output, it appears local impacts could become possible next week, depending on the exact track of INVEST 90L.

If INVEST 90L develops into a tropical storm, it will take the name “Fred.”

SHOWERS & STORMS HAPPENING NOW; MORE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… Locally, no issues are expected from INVEST 90L. We are, however, seeing quite a few showers and thunderstorms across the region as of 4:20PM on this Friday. At the moment, heavy rain is happening near Monroeville, Atmore, Jay, Repton, Wagerville, Bay Minette, Stockton, Citronelle, and Mt. Vernon. Storms are slowly moving southeast today. Another round of pop-up thunderstorms is expected tomorrow (Saturday), primarily in the afternoon and evening hours.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted throughout the weekend on INVEST 90L with many more local radar updates being posted in the RedZone Weather app.

Have a nice Friday evening!

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2:16PM July 23, 2021

SCATTERED STORMS INLAND… Several showers and thunderstorms continue to drift southeast across inland areas of south Alabama on this Friday afternoon.

The heaviest rain as of 2:16PM is happening near Gainestown, Alma, Thomasville, and Leroy in west Alabama.

More storms will pop up over the next few hours.

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6:59AM July 23, 2021

P.M. STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY; HOTTER DAYS AHEAD… Pop-up thunderstorms will be possible today and on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. While rain chances won’t be as high compared to the excessively high rain chances we had earlier this week, I still expect scattered storms to fire up in the afternoon and evening hours today and tomorrow. High temperatures today will be in the low-90s. Temperatures will be on the increase this weekend. By the time we get to Sunday afternoon, most locales across the region will have temperatures in the mid-90s. A tropical disturbance has a chance of becoming a tropical storm this weekend east of the Georgia and South Carolina coast. That system will not directly affect our local area, but it is something to monitor in the tropics. A few more Friday morning forecast details are below.

SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… Occasional showers and thunderstorms will pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Saturday. Most of these showers and storms will develop after 11AM. Some of the storms on Saturday may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and loud thunder due to cloud-to-ground lightning. Widespread severe weather is not expected Saturday, but some of the storms may become briefly strong or marginally severe. Gusty winds will be the main concern in any of the storms that ramp up to strong status. No tornado threat this weekend in our local area.

LOWER (NOT ZERO!) RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Hotter temperatures are ahead for early next week as rain chances are set to be lower (again, not zero!). Storms will be more widely spaced on Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CAROLINAS… The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin may form this weekend or early next week in the western Atlantic Ocean near the coast of South Carolina. This system will likely not be a direct issue for south Alabama or northwest Florida, regardless of if formal development happens. Here is the Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC: “A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Georgia is expected to move off of the southeastern United States coastline by Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development over the weekend and into early next week while the system drifts slowly offshore of coastal North and South Carolina.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!

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2:04PM July 22, 2021

ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND… Today has been much drier than previous days so far, although it seems like we may have more showers and thunderstorms popping up over the next few hours. As of 2:04PM, showers are happening near Tunnel Springs, Peterman, Babbie, and Chatom.

These showers are slowly drifting southeast.

Temperatures are in the upper-80s and near 90° this afternoon.

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