Invest 93L continues to straddle the Gulf coast, and model guidance has backed off of tropical cyclone formation.
Statistically speaking, this means a tropical cyclone is unlikely to form.
But how much difference does it make impact-wise? Not much, it turns out… pic.twitter.com/VmsAGQQIef
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 17, 2025
UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE… The tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf, INVEST 93L, remains highly disorganized. Good news! Scattered storms will be likely at times on Thursday and Friday. Multiple waves of storms possible tomorrow. Thankfully, severe weather risk remains quite low locally.
The National Hurricane Center continues to have odds of development for INVEST 93L, the tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf, at a 40% chance. I tend to believe that number may be a bit high at this point. Why? The center of the disturbance is currently right over our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida and moving west. There is a short window over the next 12-24 hours for development, but quite frankly, the overall proximity to land will probably keep the system from developing into a named tropical storm at this point. It still might take a name, but the odds of that are diminishing. The system spent more time over land from the Atlantic coast of Florida to Panama City today. That helped to keep the system in check and prevent it from organizing. Still has a potential window to develop, but looking less likely. I suspect NHC will lower the odds of development tomorrow IF trends continue.
As I’ve been saying repeatedly over the last few days, even if the system doesn’t take a name and become an official tropical storm, impacts will be the same for our local area. We are expecting higher rain chances tomorrow and Friday. The latest high-res models show scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms being likely at times throughout the day on Thursday. It probably WON’T rain all day in any given spot, but we probably will have multiple waves of rain and storms.
Upwards of 3-4″ of total rainfall are expected near the Alabama beaches over the next couple of days. 1-3″ of rainfall are expected across northwest Florida and south Alabama.The risk of flash flooding will maximize closer to the coast tomorrow into Friday. The overall flash flooding risk may be a bit less now that the system appears to not be organizing.
Rip currents will be a problem at the local beaches. Red flags will probably be flying at some, if not all, of the local beaches tomorrow.
My next detailed video and text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow. Have a good Thursday evening!
Thunderstorms near Pensacola and near Daphne and Fairhope are under severe limits. Occasional loud thunder is happening along with cloud-to-ground lightning as storms move southwest. pic.twitter.com/bIcbZgjPuZ
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 16, 2025
Heavy rain continues in southern Baldwin County near Foley, Summerdale, Robertsdale, Magnolia Springs, Bon Secour, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach.
Pockets of heavy rain are also happening near Milton, Harold, Bagdad, Tiger Point, and Laurel Hill. pic.twitter.com/nm6RTFUs7a
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 16, 2025
Current weather in south Foley @spann @rzweather @WKRGEd pic.twitter.com/KPeeyTu7xr
— Brian David (@redheadedchef32) July 16, 2025
Occasional weak rotation has been observed in the thunderstorms just offshore. Can’t rule out a waterspout or two near Mobile Bay over the next hour.
Heavy storms are happening near Dauphin Island, Brooklyn, Dixie, Loango, and Oaky Streak.
More pop-up storms are likely over the… pic.twitter.com/Ef2Asie18L
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 16, 2025
Thunderstorms are moving into Andalusia, Gantt, Straughn, River Falls, Red Level, Wing, Barnwell, Point Clear, Foley, Coden, and Dauphin Island as of 2:28PM.
You may hear some loud thunder if you're close to one of these storms over the next hour or so. pic.twitter.com/riOF1UkKgQ
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 16, 2025
