12:48PM September 25, 2020

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6:56AM September 25, 2020

WARM WEEKEND; SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures are expected across the region today and on Saturday. High temperatures will peak in the mid-80s this weekend ahead of cooler temperatures on the way by the middle of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday into Monday as a potent cold front approaches from the north. Cooler air will begin to filter into our region on Monday night ahead of high temperatures in the 70s by Wednesday. The tropics are expected to remain quiet this weekend into early next week! Let’s look at your Friday forecast details.

SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Rain and thunderstorms will become possible on Sunday into Monday as the cold front approaches. For now, severe weather parameters are low. There could be some thunder involved as these storms arrive, but severe weather seems unlikely for now. I’ll be watching trends this weekend and let you know if there are any changes to report.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT… A cold front will move through our region from northwest to southeast on Monday during the afternoon and evening hours, bringing with it cooler, more stable air. Overnight lows by Tuesday morning

SUNNY, MILD DAYS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK… An extended steak of sunshine looks to kick off on Wednesday as high temperatures settle into the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the mid- to upper-50s by the end of next week. We generally have several weeks of drier, sunnier weather in October, and this very well may be the beginning of that.

TROPICS ARE QUIET… The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean are all quiet with no new tropical storms expected to form over the next 5 days. Excellent news!

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!

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7:12PM September 24, 2020

COOLER AIR COMING NEXT WEEK… High temperatures this weekend into Monday will be in the 80s, but highs in the 70s with lows in the mid-50s are now in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday in the upcoming week. The attached outlook from the Climate Prediction Center highlights the likelihood of temperatures that are below our climatological norms for this time of year from October 2 through October 8. The likelihood of below normal temperatures is very high in that time frame, now in the 80-90% chance range.

WARM FRIDAY & WARM WEEKEND… Cooler air will NOT be in place on Friday or this weekend. High temperatures will rise into the mid-80s Friday, Saturday, Sunday, AND Monday. The cooler air will arrive late Monday or Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-60s until Monday night.

SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Rain and thunderstorms will become possible on Sunday into Monday as the cold front approaches. For now, severe weather parameters are low. There could be some thunder involved as these storms arrive, but severe weather seems unlikely for now. I’ll be watching trends this weekend and let you know if there are any changes to report.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have a detailed video posted by 7:15AM on Friday looking at the latest information concerning our cold air intrusion set for next week, the tropics, and more. Have a nice Thursday evening!

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4:20PM September 24, 2020

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1:35PM September 24, 2020

ALL CLEAR: SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAS ENDED TODAY… Thunderstorms are clearing out to our east, meaning the severe weather risk across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida has officially come to an end on this Thursday. We had one tornado warning this morning for parts of Escambia (FL) and Santa Rosa counties near McDavid and Molino. That was the only tornado warning of the day locally, which is right on par with what we would expect in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) tornado risk. The risk has now ended locally, however. There is an ongoing, low-end severe weather risk for southeast Alabama (Houston, Geneva, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Barbour, Pike counties) over the next few hours. In addition, the Florida Panhandle east of Destin is involved in a low-end severe weather risk over the next 2-3 hours.

NO DAMAGE REPORTS SO FAR FROM MCDAVID AREA… I have not heard of any damage reports out of McDavid, Bogia, or Molino this morning where the one tornado warning happened around 9AM. If you know of any damage that happened, please pass that along in the comments. Based on the radar signature at the time, however, I would be surprised if any extensive damage happened. Good news! You can watch our live coverage that happened during this tornado warning here.

WHAT TO EXPECT – NEXT FEW HOURS… We actually have quite a few areas that have sunshine at this hour in parts of Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Escambia (AL), and Monroe counties. Clouds will probably increase in coverage across the region over the next few hours. I can’t completely rule out a few more showers before the end of the day even though the severe weather risk has ended. Temperatures will peak in the low-80s today.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Since the severe weather risk has now ended, my next regularly scheduled forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Friday. Have a nice Thursday evening!

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9:40AM September 24, 2020

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6:50AM September 24, 2020

RISK OF A FEW TROPICAL TORNADOES TODAY… There is a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) tornado risk today in place across all of south Alabama and northwest Florida. The concern is that the storms being ushered in from the Gulf of Mexico due to the remnant circulation of former Tropical Storm Beta (now a weak, remnant area of low pressure) could rotate at times and perhaps briefly produce a tornado or two. These will not be long-track, significant tornadoes most likely, but instead weak, brief tornadoes capable of downing a few trees and knocking shingles off roofs. If a tornado affects you, whether it is a big tornado or a “weak,” brief tornado, it is a big deal. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings today. The weekend will feature better weather, with warm temperatures and partly cloudy skies. We have a cold front coming in by the middle of next week! Let’s look at all of your Thursday forecast details.

LOW-END TORNADO RISK FOR ENTIRE REGION… The Storm Prediction Center this morning continues to include ALL of the southern half of Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk, primarily driven by a chance of a few, brief tornadoes. This risk includes all parts of the following counties. If you live in ANY part of any of these counties, you’re included in this risk zone starting early Thursday morning: Washington (AL), Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Choctaw, Marengo, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Mobile, Lowndes, Montgomery, Pike, Barbour, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Houston, Geneva, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington (FL), Jackson, Calhoun, Bay, and Gulf counties.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY… A brief tornado or two will be possible through 4PM. The overall tornado risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida will extend from now to 4PM today, with the core risk being from 7AM to 1PM. After 4PM, there will likely be an ongoing tornado risk for much of the east and southeast parts of Alabama, but the risk will have ended for our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.

TORNADO RISK ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY… The tornado risk across our local area will gradually come to an end from west to east as the remnant circulation center of former Tropical Storm Beta continues to move northeast. The better tornado dynamics will begin to lift away from our area midday as the atmosphere locally becomes increasingly unstable due to daytime heating. This “mismatch of severe weather ingredients” is the reason this tornado threat is not more pronounced.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND; WARM TEMPS… Rain chances this weekend have diminished somewhat and while a shower or two may be possible, it looks like most of us across the local area will remain dry and warm. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with lows near 70 degrees.

COLD FRONT ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK… There will be a significant cool air intrusion into the Deep South toward the middle of next week as a cold front approaches from the north. Right now, this looks to be a dry front with very little in the way of showers and storms involved locally. High temperatures will drop from the mid-80s on Monday and Tuesday into the upper-70s on Wednesday, followed by likely low-70s on Thursday and Friday.

TROPICS ARE FINALLY QUIET… The Atlantic Basin (including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) is finally quiet with no new tropical storms expected to form over the next 5 days. This is the first time in many weeks that the entire basin has been quiet. Let’s enjoy the break as we may have more tropical storms forming in October as a secondary peak of hurricane season usually happens, per climatology.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day and be sure to join us if we have tornado warnings locally!

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