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SPECIAL REPORT… I’ll be live on Facebook around 8PM to discuss the potential for tropical storm development in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. See you then!

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1:10PM May 21, 2018

. May 21, 2018 . 0 Comments

TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has issued a special tropical weather outlook indicating the low-end potential for a tropical storm to develop in the southeastern Gulf later this week. While there are substantial model disagreements regarding the potential track of this system, one thing that has become clear is that this system will likely peak at tropical storm status. Here’s what we know…

LOCAL IMPACTS… Based on all presented scenarios with current model data, I am cautiously optimistic that local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida will be minimal due to this system. That is HIGHLY contingent upon this system staying to our west or to our east as models have, so far, been suggesting. Even if the system ramps up and becomes a “weak” tropical storm, heavy rain will be the main concern. Generally, these early season tropical systems are more of a rainmaker for affected areas than anything else – this system being no exception.

TORNADO/SEVERE IMPACT… Well too early to say if tornadoes or other severe weather risks will be involved for anyone in the Southeastern U.S. just yet. This will be something to monitor the potential for as the event gets closer.

TROPICAL LOW TO FORM IN GULF… The Global Forecast System (GFS) model has suggested for many days that a tropical area of low pressure would form in the southeastern Gulf. There continue to be substantial track differences, even in the GFS ensemble members, as to where this system will ultimately end up. We note that the usually reliable ECMWF (Euro) model has the area of low pressure developing farther to the west and ultimately moving ashore in Louisiana as a weak low pressure area or weak tropical storm.

APP… Be sure to join me here in the RedZone Weather app over the next few days as we track this developing system. If you haven’t already, tap the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the big, yellow “Alert Settings” button to set up the alerts you want to receive from us. Tropical alerts are generally sent under the “Medium-Level Alerts” category.

Have a good afternoon!

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7:16AM May 21, 2018

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STORMS LIKELY LATER TODAY… Similar to yesterday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida across our region. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy downpours of rain, small hail, and gusty winds will be the main concerns. If you have to be out and about today, please have a way to check the radar (redzoneweather.com/radar is the link to our Interactive Radar. This can also be accessed in the Radar tab of the RZWeather app).

TROPICAL UPDATE… Still no clear cut solution on where the tropical area of low pressure will go once it develops in the western Caribbean Sea later this week. One thing that does seem to be becoming more consistent is that this will likely be a weak tropical storm or perhaps even a tropical area of low pressure that doesn’t take on a “formal” classification.

P.M. STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEK… Still accurate as of today! Afternoon and evening storms will dominate our weather pattern over the next seven days, as is typical for an early summer weather pattern across our region. High temperatures will consistently be near 90° with morning lows in the upper-60s.

Let me know if you have specific questions. We’ll have plenty of updates later today here in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great day!

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