RISK OF A FEW TROPICAL TORNADOES TODAY… There is a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) tornado risk today in place across all of south Alabama and northwest Florida. The concern is that the storms being ushered in from the Gulf of Mexico due to the remnant circulation of former Tropical Storm Beta (now a weak, remnant area of low pressure) could rotate at times and perhaps briefly produce a tornado or two. These will not be long-track, significant tornadoes most likely, but instead weak, brief tornadoes capable of downing a few trees and knocking shingles off roofs. If a tornado affects you, whether it is a big tornado or a “weak,” brief tornado, it is a big deal. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings today. The weekend will feature better weather, with warm temperatures and partly cloudy skies. We have a cold front coming in by the middle of next week! Let’s look at all of your Thursday forecast details.
LOW-END TORNADO RISK FOR ENTIRE REGION… The Storm Prediction Center this morning continues to include ALL of the southern half of Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk, primarily driven by a chance of a few, brief tornadoes. This risk includes all parts of the following counties. If you live in ANY part of any of these counties, you’re included in this risk zone starting early Thursday morning: Washington (AL), Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Choctaw, Marengo, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Mobile, Lowndes, Montgomery, Pike, Barbour, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Houston, Geneva, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington (FL), Jackson, Calhoun, Bay, and Gulf counties.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY… A brief tornado or two will be possible through 4PM. The overall tornado risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida will extend from now to 4PM today, with the core risk being from 7AM to 1PM. After 4PM, there will likely be an ongoing tornado risk for much of the east and southeast parts of Alabama, but the risk will have ended for our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.
TORNADO RISK ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY… The tornado risk across our local area will gradually come to an end from west to east as the remnant circulation center of former Tropical Storm Beta continues to move northeast. The better tornado dynamics will begin to lift away from our area midday as the atmosphere locally becomes increasingly unstable due to daytime heating. This “mismatch of severe weather ingredients” is the reason this tornado threat is not more pronounced.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND; WARM TEMPS… Rain chances this weekend have diminished somewhat and while a shower or two may be possible, it looks like most of us across the local area will remain dry and warm. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with lows near 70 degrees.
COLD FRONT ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK… There will be a significant cool air intrusion into the Deep South toward the middle of next week as a cold front approaches from the north. Right now, this looks to be a dry front with very little in the way of showers and storms involved locally. High temperatures will drop from the mid-80s on Monday and Tuesday into the upper-70s on Wednesday, followed by likely low-70s on Thursday and Friday.
TROPICS ARE FINALLY QUIET… The Atlantic Basin (including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) is finally quiet with no new tropical storms expected to form over the next 5 days. This is the first time in many weeks that the entire basin has been quiet. Let’s enjoy the break as we may have more tropical storms forming in October as a secondary peak of hurricane season usually happens, per climatology.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day and be sure to join us if we have tornado warnings locally!
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