4:05PM June 2, 2020

CRISTOBAL TO MOVE NORTH THIS WEEKEND; RAIN LIKELY LOCALLY… Here is the latest projected path for Tropical Storm Cristobal from the National Hurricane Center as of 4PM on Tuesday, June 2. Cristobal is set to “sit and spin” in the Bay of Campeche over the next 3 days before jogging quickly to the north toward the northern Gulf Coast this weekend. At this moment, the forecast remains on track with increased rain chances being the main potential impact for our local area Sunday into Monday. High waves and dangerous rip currents will be a concern at our local beaches. While it is too early to definitively say where Tropical Storm Cristobal will ultimately make landfall, the latest deterministic model guidance points to a landfall point somewhere between Port O’Connor, Texas and Biloxi, Mississippi. Keep in mind that impacts will extend well away from the landfall point. This puts the state of Louisiana straight in the projected path for this system, meaning that is the area where most of the impacts will happen IF this scenario verifies. Further forecast refinements will be possible over the next few days and IF model guidance shifts farther east, obviously our area would have more in the way of potential impacts (perhaps including a few spin-up tornadoes and higher wind gusts). We certainly are not “out of the woods” just yet.

SHOULD I CANCEL MY VACATION PLANS? I have had a plethora of questions like this today, most of which are from folks planning to travel to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend into early next week. My answer to this question remains: If I had plans to go to our beaches this weekend into early next week, I would currently keep my plans. I would not cancel as of now as I personally don’t mind increased rain chances at the beaches. If you’re looking for full days of sunshine at our local beaches, those are pretty hard to come by this time of year due to the pop-up thunderstorms that are going to happen each day. If you can wait to make a decision on your beach vacation, that is what I would do. We will have a better grip of potential local impacts tomorrow evening and into Thursday. If you know someone planning to vacation/travel with concerns, tag them below and tell them about this specific paragraph please.

WHAT IS DRIVING CRISTOBAL RIGHT NOW… This tropical system is not moving much at all. As noted by the National Hurricane Center in their technical discussion, the system is currently trapped between two high pressure areas. This trapping mechanism will be in place for the next 48-72 hours. By Friday, Cristobal will begin to move north across the Gulf of Mexico in response to higher winds from the south. It should be noted that forecast confidence in 4 to 5 days remains fairly low as there are plenty of questions as to what will happen when/if Cristobal interacts with the land area of Mexico later this week. There is at least some chance that the terrain weakens the system. Even in that scenario, however, there is a chance the system redevelops farther north and moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Lots of question marks. We’ll keep you posted as we know more in the days ahead.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a nice Tuesday evening!

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6:52AM June 2, 2020

P.M. POP-UP STORMS TODAY; WATCHING TD3/CRISTOBAL IN SOUTHERN GULF… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are set to return to our area today as we continue to monitor the tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely move northward toward parts of the southeastern U.S. this weekend. The rain chance today has nothing to do with the tropical system. Rain and pop-up storms today will be localized and what we are accustomed to during the summer months around here. Severe weather is not expected today, although some of the stronger storms may produce cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty winds. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.

SHOWERS & STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY… Yesterday was dry and hot. Today will be more seasonal for an early June day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s. The same holds true for Wednesday.

MORE POP-UP STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… Pop-up thunderstorms will increase in coverage in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday and Friday. High temperatures are slated to be in the mid- to upper-80s.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely this weekend into early next week, partially due to the influence of If our local area is closer to the track of the tropical system that is slated to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we will need to adjust rain chances even higher.

TD3/CRISTOBAL TO MEANDER AROUND SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to issue advisories on the system in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the time of our video production very early on this Tuesday, NHC maintains the Tropical Depression Three status, but there is a good chance by the time you’re actually seeing this video pop up on your Facebook feed that the system will have strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The forecast for TD3/Cristobal calls for very slow movement across the southern Gulf of Mexico in the area known as the Bay of Campeche. NHC suggests that somewhat of a loop will happen in the track of this system, with a near landfall happening along the Mexican coast. This is where the forecast gets tricky, as if TD3/Cristobal moves farther inland in southern Mexico, the entire system may be disrupted. If the system loops around, as the official NHC forecast suggests, there is a good chance Cristobal will turn northward and potentially approach the U.S. on Sunday into Monday.

COULD BE CRISTOBAL OR COULD BE DOLLY… Weirdly enough, if TD3/Cristobal moves into Mexico (as discussed in the previous paragraph), there is a chance that the system may dissipate and help to spin up a new tropical system that would move across the Gulf of Mexico from south to north. This could potentially be a totally distinct tropical storm (would take the name “Dolly”) that would potentially take aim at parts of Louisiana and Texas. The National Hurricane Center Discussion accounts for this possibility. Regardless of if the system is named Cristobal or Dolly, there is a high chance we will have a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico by the upcoming weekend.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… While it is still a bit too early to say for sure whether the center of this tropical storm will remain to our west this weekend into early next week, the model trends have been pretty consistent in that idea so far. If this scenario verified, this would mean our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida would primarily have increased rain chances Sunday into Monday. Depending on the exact track of this system, there could be an increased risk of brief, spin-up tornadoes near the immediate coast, although for now confidence in that idea remains low. IF the center of this tropical storm is closer to our area as opposed to areas farther west, obviously we would have an increased risk of hazards (heavy rain, flash flooding, tornadoes, high waves).

UPDATES IN APP TODAY… I’ll have plenty of updates later today on the very latest concerning the tropics. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app this afternoon into this evening. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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4:02PM June 1, 2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 FORMS IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system has rapidly evolved today and organized to tropical depression status. TD3 will likely become Tropical Storm Cristobal in the hours ahead. The official forecast for TD3/Cristobal-to-be calls for the system to meander around the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf for the next few days. Interestingly, if TD3 becomes a tropical storm over the next 3 days, this will be the earliest formation of the third named storm in an Atlantic Hurricane Season. The current record for the earliest 3rd named storm was Tropical Storm Colin in 2016.

LOCAL IMPACTS – TO BE DETERMINED… This remains on point from yesterday: There is a chance that NO local impacts across south Alabama and northwest Florida ever happen because of this system. We still are a few days out from knowing conclusively whether direct local impacts will happen. Uncertainty at this phase of development IS expected and details will come more into focus over the next few days. The MOST likely scenario, as of Monday, June 1, is that we will have slightly increased rain chances during the upcoming weekend. There could be a chance of a few stronger storms involved, depending on the exact track of what will likely be Tropical Storm Cristobal at that point. Please check back with me over the next few days as we continue to get more information.

RAIN CHANCES HIGHER LOCALLY, BUT NOT BECAUSE OF TD3… Our rain chances are set to rise as we get into the middle part of the week, but not because of direct influence from Tropical Depression 3/Cristobal. The showers and thunderstorms that pop up tomorrow, Wednesday, into Thursday are daily convection driven by the seabreeze that are all too common this time of year across our region. Storms will produce localized areas of heavy rain, gusty winds, and intense cloud-to-ground lightning, BUT widespread severe weather is not expected. Rain chances locally will increase throughout the week.

APP… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app concerning this developing tropical system. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more details as needed in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead. My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Be sure to check in with me tomorrow morning for the very latest information.

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12:50PM June 1, 2020

HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN GULF… The National Hurricane Center now says there is an 90% chance of a tropical storm forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico (in the Bay of Campeche) over the next 3-5 days. This will be a situation where the tropical storm likely forms and does not move much at all for a few days as it sits and spins in the Bay of Campeche. By the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the system could either move south into Mexico or perhaps lift to the north and threaten Texas or Louisiana. We are simply too early in the process to be able to say conclusively that this system won’t directly affect Alabama or northwest Florida just yet, although there is a discernible trend pointing to a heightened chance of impacts in Texas and Louisiana. The big headline as of 1PM on Monday, June 1: There is now a growing (and high) chance that a tropical storm will form in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Direct impacts to the United States will be possible this weekend into early next week, but it is too soon to give specifics. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days for the very latest.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

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