P.M. POP-UP STORMS TODAY; WATCHING TD3/CRISTOBAL IN SOUTHERN GULF… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are set to return to our area today as we continue to monitor the tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely move northward toward parts of the southeastern U.S. this weekend. The rain chance today has nothing to do with the tropical system. Rain and pop-up storms today will be localized and what we are accustomed to during the summer months around here. Severe weather is not expected today, although some of the stronger storms may produce cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty winds. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
SHOWERS & STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY… Yesterday was dry and hot. Today will be more seasonal for an early June day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s. The same holds true for Wednesday.
MORE POP-UP STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… Pop-up thunderstorms will increase in coverage in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday and Friday. High temperatures are slated to be in the mid- to upper-80s.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely this weekend into early next week, partially due to the influence of If our local area is closer to the track of the tropical system that is slated to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we will need to adjust rain chances even higher.
TD3/CRISTOBAL TO MEANDER AROUND SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to issue advisories on the system in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the time of our video production very early on this Tuesday, NHC maintains the Tropical Depression Three status, but there is a good chance by the time you’re actually seeing this video pop up on your Facebook feed that the system will have strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The forecast for TD3/Cristobal calls for very slow movement across the southern Gulf of Mexico in the area known as the Bay of Campeche. NHC suggests that somewhat of a loop will happen in the track of this system, with a near landfall happening along the Mexican coast. This is where the forecast gets tricky, as if TD3/Cristobal moves farther inland in southern Mexico, the entire system may be disrupted. If the system loops around, as the official NHC forecast suggests, there is a good chance Cristobal will turn northward and potentially approach the U.S. on Sunday into Monday.
COULD BE CRISTOBAL OR COULD BE DOLLY… Weirdly enough, if TD3/Cristobal moves into Mexico (as discussed in the previous paragraph), there is a chance that the system may dissipate and help to spin up a new tropical system that would move across the Gulf of Mexico from south to north. This could potentially be a totally distinct tropical storm (would take the name “Dolly”) that would potentially take aim at parts of Louisiana and Texas. The National Hurricane Center Discussion accounts for this possibility. Regardless of if the system is named Cristobal or Dolly, there is a high chance we will have a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico by the upcoming weekend.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… While it is still a bit too early to say for sure whether the center of this tropical storm will remain to our west this weekend into early next week, the model trends have been pretty consistent in that idea so far. If this scenario verified, this would mean our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida would primarily have increased rain chances Sunday into Monday. Depending on the exact track of this system, there could be an increased risk of brief, spin-up tornadoes near the immediate coast, although for now confidence in that idea remains low. IF the center of this tropical storm is closer to our area as opposed to areas farther west, obviously we would have an increased risk of hazards (heavy rain, flash flooding, tornadoes, high waves).
UPDATES IN APP TODAY… I’ll have plenty of updates later today on the very latest concerning the tropics. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app this afternoon into this evening. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!
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