TROPICAL MISCHIEF CLOSE TO HOME; NUMEROUS POP-UP STORMS… There is a low-end chance that a tropical storm may form just to our south in the northern Gulf of Mexico and rapidly move east or northeast in the hours ahead. This area of low pressure, developing along a stalled frontal boundary, won’t mean much for our local forecast other than an increased chance of rain today and on Monday. There are plenty of showers and thunderstorms around our region this afternoon with more storms expected to pop up over the next several hours. This will continue to be our lead weather story in the days ahead with “hit or miss” showers and storms. We’re also tracking a separate tropical depression near Bermuda that is moving out to sea. Let’s discuss all of your forecast details.

TROPICS: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has introduced a very low chance that a developing area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico (not too far at all south of our local beaches) will become a tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours. Development is MORE likely to happen Tuesday into Wednesday of the upcoming week as this system emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean near the Georgia and Carolinas. Even if the system develops into a tropical storm south of us, impacts will be negligible, other than increased rain chances today into tomorrow. Here is the latest from the NHC discussion: A broad area of low pressure located along the northern Gulf Coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible before the disturbance moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development.

TROPICS: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE NEAR BERMUDA… An area of low pressure developed well east of the Florida and Georgia coastline in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean yesterday to the point where the National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories. This system is branded as Tropical Depression Five. The center of this tropical depression has now passed Bermuda. TD5 is now moving out to sea and will never be a direct issue for the United States. The center of TD5 is located around 34.5 North and 63.0 West, or about 185 miles northeast of Bermuda. Maximum winds are at 35 mph. There is a chance this system may become a tropical storm as it continues to move out to sea. If it does, it will take the name “Edouard.”

NUMEROUS POP-UP STORMS TODAY… The local radar display remains quite active with numerous showers and thunderstorms noted at the time this video is being produced around 1:30PM. Heavy rain is happening near McIntosh, Fairhope, Daphne, Montrose, Spanish Fort, Whitfield, and Wilmer. These storms are drifting northwest very slowly. Don’t be surprised by downpours over the next few hours.

MORE SHOWERS & STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEK… You can basically carbon copy today’s forecast and paste it in for Monday and Tuesday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region. Most of the showers and storms will occur in the afternoon and evening hours but just like today, there could be a few storms that pop up in the late morning hours as well. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s through Tuesday with morning lows in the low-70s.

POP-UP STORMS – SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW… Summertime in south Alabama and northwest Florida is notorious for pop-up thunderstorms. These are the storms that are likely to happen today. Gusty winds, heavy rain, lots of lightning, and loud thunder are the features of these storms. Most of the storms should remain under severe limits, but we know even the “non-severe” thunderstorms can often pack a punch this time of year. There is basically not a tornado risk today. Tornadoes are rare in the Deep South during the summer months unless we have a tropical system in play (we don’t right now – the area of low pressure to our south is too weak to be a big influence). No tornado issues expected today or this week.

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See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Have a great evening!

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