8:04PM October 21, 2019

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR FL PANHANDLE… The Storm Prediction Center has just issued a mesoscale discussion that includes much of the Florida Panhandle region. SPC indicates that damaging wind gusts will be possible in some of the stronger storms over the next few hours in those areas. The severe weather risk is rapidly ending across south Alabama and northwest Florida east of Okaloosa County.

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6:42PM October 21, 2019

HEAVY RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION… Strong thunderstorms are happening just offshore from Pensacola Beach and Perdido Key where a squall line extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Storms are strong or severe offshore because of the ample levels of atmospheric instability with CAPE values being in excess of 2,000 j/kg just offshore. This is providing a supportive environment for severe storms offshore. CAPE values are between 500-100 j/kg across land areas, however. Thus, the environment from the beaches northward into the heart of south Alabama and northwest Florida isn’t supportive for severe weather. There could be a brief, isolated stronger (or even marginally severe) storm over the next few hours near the northwest Florida coast, however our severe weather risk across the area is quickly coming to an end. I expect to be able to give a complete all clear probably by 8:30 or 9PM at the latest.

6:42PM RADAR CHECK… Very heavy rain is happening near Monroeville, Uriah, and Atmore along the AL21 corridor, associated with the main line of passing storms. Heavy rain extends southward along the Perdido River (which is the AL/FL state line) southward to Orange Beach. Very heavy rain is about to begin in Downtown Pensacola because of this line of storms.

LOW-END RISK CONTINUES… The Level 2 (out of 5) “slight” risk is now off the board. We have a low-end, Level 1 marginal severe weather risk that continues for Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties over the next 2-3 hours. Have a way to receive warnings in these areas just in case we happen to have a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning.

ALL CLEAR BEHIND LINE OF STORMS… The severe weather risk has ended for many locales located behind the eastward-advancing line of storms. We can give a ALL CLEAR to all parts of the following counties: Mobile, Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties. The severe weather risk is MUCH lower across south central Alabama as well.

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5:32PM October 21, 2019

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