12:38PM July 19, 2026
LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR COAST, DUE TO TD2/BERTHA-TO-BE THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Two in the northeastern Gulf today. TD2 is centered about 165 miles south of Apalachicola at the moment and the system isn’t moving much at all. Right now, the official NHC forecast keeps the core of TD2 offshore of south Alabama and northwest Florida as the system passes just to our south on Tuesday into Wednesday. I expect rain at times over the next few days (including thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours), breezy conditions at the immediate coast, and the potential for tornadoes being possible on Tuesday P.M. into Wednesday across the local area.
LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT – TD2… Direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida will be determined by exactly how close the center of circulation moves to our shoreline. IF the center of the storm moves a bit slower and further south, it would likely be a stronger storm moving toward Louisiana. IF the center moves quicker today into tonight, it would likely be a weaker system that moves closer to the northwest Florida and Alabama coast midweek. For now, the National Hurricane Center has a solution in the middle of these two scenarios, taking the system into eastern Louisiana on Wednesday as a tropical storm. For now, significant local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida remain highly unlikely. We will have increased rain chances through the middle part of the week. Gusty winds will be possible specifically at the local beaches and bays on Tuesday into Wednesday. Isolated, brief tornadoes may become a problem across the local area from Tuesday P.M. into Wednesday as the core of TD2/Bertha-to-be passes just to our south.
The “impacts possible” yellow zone in the map attached highlights the zone for increased rain chances, flash flooding (if storms train over the same areas) and perhaps isolated tornadoes as the storm evolves over the next few days. Breezy conditions will be possible at the immediate coast.
IMPACTS TIMING – THIS WEEK… Impacts in the way of rain and breezy conditions will begin in parts of the Florida Panhandle near Panama City and Port St. Joe TODAY into tonight. Occasional rain and thunderstorms will be possible locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida due to this system starting tomorrow but the biggest concerns locally will happen Tuesday night into Wednesday as the circulation moves west and away from our area. At that point, our area will be in the part of the storm where Gulf moisture is streaming in from the south. Isolated tornadoes will be possible.
FORECAST IS NOT SET IN STONE; CHANGES POSSIBLE… I posted this Friday afternoon and it still holds true today: “We certainly will need to keep our eyes on the system and see how it evolves in the hours and in the days ahead as forecast changes may be possible. Please check in for updates in the days ahead! One of the biggest problems we face in the weather industry is folks locking on to an initial forecast. That can be dangerous, particularly in a setup like this where further changes are EXPECTED. I will have further updates posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app.”
More changes to the forecast will be possible as we continue to get more data in over the next few hours, including vital data from the USAF Hurricane Hunter crew that will be dropping dropsondes into the system this afternoon.
TO CANCEL OR NOT TO CANCEL YOUR BEACH TRIP… I have been asked by many, many people over the last few days about whether or not they should cancel their south Alabama and northwest Florida beach vacation plans for the upcoming week. Everyone has a different risk tolerance. What I can tell you is we will have higher rain chances Monday through Wednesday due to this system. Breezy conditions will be possible at the coast. Isolated tornadoes may be a problem midweek. The latter half of the week should feature much better weather with our normal, intermittent showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Would I cancel? No, but my general thinking is I would much rather be at the beach even during more inclement weather. You might cancel under the same set of circumstances.
CURRENT INFO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO… Right now, Tropical Depression Two is centered about 165 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida in the eastern Gulf. The system is nearly stationary, with the forward movement being estimated at 2 mph to the north-northwest. Minimum central pressure is still quite high at 1011 millibars, meaning the system remains disorganized. Maximum wind gusts are currently 30 mph. We’ll be able to get more information about the status of the storm when the Hurricane Hunter recon crew samples the system this afternoon.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLORIDA COAST… A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border at Orange Beach/Perdido Key eastward to the Ochlockonee River in the Big Bend region of Florida. This Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for COASTAL portions of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, and Wakulla counties. A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm force wind gusts may become possible in the next 36-48 hours. This watch includes Perdido Key, NAS Pensacola, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Garcon Point, Tiger Point, Midway (FL), Navarre, Mary Esther, Hurlburt Field, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Eglin AFB, Niceville, Freeport, Santa Rosa Beach, Sandestin, Miramar Beach, Rosemary Beach, Seaside, Laguna Beach, Panama City Beach, all of the Panama City metro area, Tyndall AFB, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Apalachicola, and St. George Island.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LIKELY SOON FOR PORTIONS OF AL, MS, AND LA COAST… A Tropical Storm Watch will be needed for coastal stretches of Mobile and Baldwin counties, including areas near Mobile Bay. Coastal Mississippi and much of eastern Louisiana will also likely be included in a Tropical Storm Watch tomorrow ahead of the arrival of TD2.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and YouTube Live. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington (AL), Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice Sunday!
