6:50AM September 21, 2021

SCATTERED STORMS TODAY; COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY… Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible at times on this Tuesday, mainly in the P.M. hours. Tomorrow, a significant weather change happens as a cold front moves across our region from northwest to southeast. This frontal boundary will pave the way for mild days and cool nights. The tropics remain active with two tropical storms and a tropical wave noted in the central part of the Atlantic Ocean. Fortunately, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain quiet, for now. A few more Tuesday morning forecast notes are below.

NICE WEATHER AHEAD STARTING THURSDAY… Tomorrow will serve as a transition day of sorts as a cold front moves by in the evening hours. Overnight lows by Thursday morning will be in the upper-50s in many spots. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the mid- to upper-70s.

TROPICAL STORM PETER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC… The center of a highly sheared Tropical Storm Peter is located about 120 miles northeast of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Peter remains a disorganized storm with maximum winds around 50 mph. The center of Peter will gradually slow down and turn north by Thursday. Peter could bring impacts to Bermuda by Saturday, likely as a decaying tropical depression by that point. Tropical Storm Peter is not expected to ever be a direct issue for Alabama or northwest Florida.

TROPICAL STORM ROSE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC… Rose remains a tropical storm this morning, situated in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Rose is expected to remain weak in the days ahead before dissipating well away from land. No direct impacts from Tropical Storm Rose are expected in the USA.

TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… The next named tropical storm in the Atlantic basin could develop today or tomorrow as a tropical wave continues moving west across the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a high (80%) chance of this system becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. From NHC: “Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show some signs of organization, although recent satellite wind data indicate that the system lacks a surface circulation. Upper-level winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:53AM September 20, 2021

COOLER, DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK; STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY… We finally see the end of the dreary, rainy days as a cold front is set to move by later this week. Before that happens, we are expecting a chance of showers and thunderstorms today, tomorrow, and a lower chance on Wednesday. Rain chances will be maximized today out of any of the next 7 days. The greatest chance of rain will happen between 11AM and 6PM. Widespread severe weather is not expected today, but you may hear some loud thunder in the strongest of the storms. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s today. A few more Monday morning forecast notes are below.

TEMPS IN THE 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING… Cooler temperatures will arrive late Wednesday into early Thursday as a cold front moves by our region. Overnight lows on Thursday morning will be in the mid-50s. Highs on Thursday afternoon are expected to be in the mid-70s. We have not had temperatures that low since the month of May!

DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND… Sunny skies are expected Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as a cool, dry airmass parks right over our local area. Rain chances will be at zero from Thursday through Saturday.

TROPICAL UPDATE… Tropical Storm Peter and Tropical Storm Rose formed over the weekend. These two storms are in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Peter is located several hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Peter is forecast to move northwest followed by a northerly turn later this week. Interests in Bermuda should closely follow the progress of Peter. Tropical Storm Rose is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Rose is forecast to move northwest, remain over the open ocean, and dissipate in a few days. Another, separate tropical wave has a 40-50% chance of becoming a tropical storm near the African coast in the days ahead. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain quiet, for now.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

7:30AM September 19, 2021

RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES TODAY; TASTE OF FALL ARRIVES IN A FEW DAYS… While today and Sunday will feature high rain chances, drier, cooler air is set to arrive Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front passes across our region. Overnight lows on Thursday morning are set to be in the mid-50s across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Highs will be near 80 with mostly sunny skies on Thursday into Friday. Many folks locally are looking forward to the taste of fall headed our way! Before we get there, excessive rainfall is likely today and tomorrow that could lead to flash flooding. A few more Saturday morning forecast notes are below.

STORMS LIKELY TODAY… Rain and thunderstorms will continue to be likely at times on this Saturday. Widespread severe weather is not expected and the tornado risk remains near zero today. Rain chances will continue to be slightly higher in areas closer to the immediate coast, although even farther inland, chances of rain remain high.

I will have radar updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. I hope you have a great Saturday!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

10:18AM September 17, 2021

SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING… Rain continues in parts of Butler, Conecuh, Covington, and Okaloosa counties this morning. We’re also seeing storms fire up in Jackson County, MS that will move into parts of western Mobile County over the next hour.

The overall severe weather risk today remains very low, if not near zero in most spots. The risk of flash flooding remains elevated closer to the coast.

Destin, FL remains under a Flash Flood Warning.

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:52AM September 17, 2021

RAIN LIKELY TODAY; HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES MAY BE WET… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible across the region at times on this Friday. Flash flooding could be an issue, particularly in coastal counties. High temperatures will be in the low-80s today. Rain will be likely this weekend and into early next week as deep, tropical moisture continues to move into our area from the south. We finally will get a break from the increased rain chances by the middle of the upcoming week. A few more Friday forecast notes are below.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FORECAST… Rain will be falling in some spots at 7PM this evening, most likely, but it is impossible to know the exact placement of the showers and storms in advance. Rain could be heavy at times, even into the evening hours when Friday night football is happening across our area. Game time temperatures will be in the upper-70s and near 80 in many spots.

MORE RAIN & STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND… Scattered thunderstorms will be likely at times on Saturday and Sunday as tropical moisture continues to stream into our area from the south. Heavy rain may be possible at times, although widespread severe weather is not expected. High temperatures each day will be in the mid-80s with morning lows near 70.

TROPICAL UPDATE… A tropical wave located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean continues to move west. This tropical wave has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm as the system continues moving northwest this weekend. It remains too early to know if this system will directly impact the continental United States. A separate tropical wave has emerged off the African continent. This tropical wave is moving northwest toward the Cabo Verde Islands. There is a low-end chance this tropical wave becomes a tropical storm as it moves northwest. An area of low pressure just offshore from the North Carolina coast has a high chance of briefly becoming a tropical storm before the system becomes extratropical over the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain quiet, for now.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a nice weekend!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:56AM September 16, 2021

HEAVY RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND… Rain and thunderstorms will continue to be likely throughout the day on this Thursday. Flash flooding will quickly become an issue closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida coast where some spots had upwards of 9+ inches of rain yesterday. Fortunately, it appears most of the greater dynamics have faded and the overall tornado risk today remains quite low. More rain is ahead on Friday and into the weekend as the relentless Gulf “fire hose” of moisture continues. I’ve got all of your Thursday morning forecast details below.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL TOMORROW… The National Weather Service maintains a Flash Flood Watch for several local counties valid until tomorrow evening due to the ongoing risk of flash flooding in our local area. This Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), and Washington counties in south Alabama. Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties are included in northwest Florida.

2 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN LIKELY… Some spots had upwards of 10 (!) inches of rainfall yesterday alone. We are expecting an additional 2-3″ of rain across much of the region today and tomorrow with isolated higher rain amounts of 4 to 5 inches closer to the immediate coast. Unfortunately, the higher rain amounts are likely to happen in the same areas that had the bulk of the rainfall yesterday, thus flash flooding will be an ongoing, serious concern.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS MOVING EAST… Nicholas remains a pesky tropical depression this morning with the center of circulation located about 90 miles south-southeast of Alexandria, Louisiana. The circulation is basically stationary, thus one of the reasons we are continuing to observe extreme amounts of Gulf moisture being funneled into our local area.

90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN ATLANTIC… There remains a high (90%) chance of a new tropical storm forming in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands. Note it remains way too early to know if this system will ever directly affect the USA. From NHC: “Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with an area of low pressure located more than 500 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, earlier satellite derived winds indicated the system also lacks a well-defined center. However, environmental conditions are still expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.”

70% CHANCE TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA… From NHC: “Shower activity remains poorly organized in association with a broad low pressure system located several hundred miles to the south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Thursday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:17PM September 15, 2021

ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY… High rain chances over the next few days will cause the risk of flash flooding to be fairly high across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. We have already had some spots pick up approximately 6 inches of rainfall in the last few hours. Thanks to Gretchen Brown (Navarre, FL) and Toby Hallett (Pace, FL) for reporting their rain amounts over the last few hours: 5.7″ in Navarre and 5.75″ in Pace. More rain tonight into tomorrow will only add to the growing risk of flash flooding.

TORNADO RISK NOW LOWER, BUT NOT ZERO… The overall tornado risk across south Alabama and northwest Florida is now much lower than it was earlier today. We have been very fortunate in that we have not had a tornado warning locally, so far, with this event. We encourage everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings tonight before you go to sleep, just in case we happen to have a rogue warning or two. I don’t really expect that at this point, but it IS a small possibility. Tonight is NOT a night for you to stay up and worry, but it is a night for you to have a way to get warnings. If we happen to have a tornado warning in the hours ahead, I would almost guarantee it would happen in parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, or Walton counties.

WHAT TO EXPECT – OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY… In short, more heavy rain at times. A brief tornado or two cannot completely be ruled out. Flash flooding will be a concern overnight. Please keep tabs on the radar, especially if you have to be out and about driving in the early morning hours. The greatest rain chance will happen in areas closer to the immediate coast. More rain and storms will be possible throughout the day on Thursday and on Friday. Rain chances will begin to lessen somewhat on Saturday.

I will have ongoing updates throughout the night being posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Wednesday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

8:20PM September 14, 2021

HYPERACTIVE! 26 LANDFALLING NAMED STORMS IN THE SOUTH SINCE 2018… Unreal. If you have felt overwhelmed by hurricane seasons as of late (I know I have!), there is data to show why. Since 2018, we have had a whopping 26 named tropical storms and hurricanes making landfall in the American South. A few data highlights…

– The last few hurricane seasons have been unprecedented in terms of the number of storms making landfall in the United States. 4 landfalls happened in 2018, 3-5 happened in 2019 (depending on if you count two late-season post-tropical named storms), 10 happened in 2020, and so far, 7 have happened in 2021.

– 3 major hurricane landfalls have happened since 2018, including category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018 slamming into the Florida Panhandle, high-end category 4 Hurricane Laura making landfall in western Louisiana, and high-end category 4 (at the time of this writing anyway) Hurricane Ida that made landfall in southeast Louisiana just a few weeks ago.

– Multiple hurricanes, including Sally and Zeta in 2020, were on the cusp of being major hurricanes at landfall. Sally and Zeta have arguably been the most impactful storms for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the last 4 years.

– Louisiana has really taken a beating from tropical systems over the last few years. I’m counting 8 landfalls (with a near miss of a landfall from Hurricane Marco in 2020 that is not included in this total). Two of the strongest hurricane strikes (Laura and Ida) happened in Louisiana.

– The Florida Panhandle has also been somewhat of a hotspot for landfalling storms since 2018, including visits from Tropical Storm Alberto (2018), Major Hurricane Michael (2018), Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor (2019), Tropical Storm Fred (2021), and Tropical Storm Mindy (2021).

– Tropical Storm Eta made landfall twice in Florida in 2020. Eta briefly became a hurricane west of Tampa in the Gulf of Mexico, but both of the landfall strikes were when the storm was at tropical storm status.

– Note this list does NOT include U.S. landfalls of tropical storms and hurricanes that have hit states in the Northeastern U.S. If you add those storms into the mix, the number of U.S. landfalls is higher!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

12:37PM September 14, 2021

HEAVY RAIN & A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) tornado risk for parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida valid tomorrow (Wednesday, September 15). Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to move northeast across eastern Texas today. The remnant circulation of Nicholas will move into Louisiana tomorrow, meaning deep tropical moisture will be catapulted into our area from the south. Brief, spin-up circulations may develop and move into areas near the immediate coast tomorrow. While most locales will simply have heavy rain at times, a few tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. We encourage everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings tomorrow. A few more midday notes are below.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) TORNADO RISK ON WEDNESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center maintains much of eastern Louisiana, southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk valid after 7AM Wednesday morning. While the wind fields associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas will be weakening, there may be just enough low-level directional shear to support a few brief, spin-up tornadoes on Wednesday. The low-end risk zone includes several communities in our local area: Mobile, Pensacola, Prichard, Saraland, Semmes, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Barnwell, Bay Minette, Loxley, Silverhill, Summerdale, Robertsdale, Foley, Perdido, Tensaw, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, McIntosh, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Uriah, Eliska, Atmore, Huxford, Poarch, Nokomis, Wawbeek, Flomaton, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Gonzalez, Beulah, Seminole, Warrington, Perdido Key, Milton, Pace, Chumuckla, Allentown, Jay, Brownsdale, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, and Harold.

SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY LATER TODAY… An increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to happen across our area later today as intermittent rain from Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to move in. A few showers and thunderstorms happened this morning, but I am expecting more thunderstorms to develop in the hours ahead. The tornado risk locally TODAY remains very low. I will have radar updates posted into the evening in the RedZone Weather app.

HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY… All of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida has the potential for heavy rain at times on Wednesday. Flash flooding may become a concern, especially where storms train over the same areas. The greatest risk of flash flooding in our local area will happen in Washington, Clarke, Choctaw, Baldwin, and Mobile counties.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted over the next several hours in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Tuesday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:51AM September 14, 2021

MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT AHEAD FOR OUR LOCAL AREA; HURRICANE NICHOLAS NEAR TEXAS COAST… Heavy rain will be possible at times today in our local area, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours as the weakening circulation of Hurricane Nicholas begins to usher in high amounts of Gulf moisture. While rain chances will be greater on Wednesday and Thursday, I am expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across our area today. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s. Flash flooding will become a concern tomorrow into Thursday, especially where heavy rain trains over the same areas. The greatest chance of flash flooding will happen in west Alabama, in parts of Clarke, Choctaw, Mobile, and Washington counties. A few more Tuesday morning forecast details are below.

NICHOLAS MADE LANDFALL LAST NIGHT IN TEXAS… Nicholas strengthened to category 1 hurricane status late last night. The center of Nicholas is near the coast of Texas this morning. The storm made landfall last night near Lake Jackson. Nicholas is expected to continue to gradually move northeast today. The storm will continue to weaken and likely become a tropical depression later today. Additional heavy rainfall is likely at times today across Louisiana. There is a low-end risk of a few tornadoes today across parts of eastern Texas and much of Louisiana.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LOCALLY… Wednesday and Thursday will feature high (>70%) rain chances each day with a chance of flash flooding issues across west Alabama. Generally, areas farther to the west in our local area will have the highest risk of flash flooding issues through Friday. This means that Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Mobile, and Baldwin counties have the higher risk of experiencing flash flooding. Rain amounts will be in the 2-4″ range in these counties with lesser rain amounts farther to the east.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS… In addition to Tropical Storm Nicholas, the National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level low pressure area situated north of the Turks & Caicos islands or just northeast of The Bahamas in the southwest Atlantic Ocean. NHC gives this system a 50% chance of becoming a tropical storm as the system moves north. Direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected because of this system.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR WEST AFRICA… There is a high (80%) chance of a tropical storm forming in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean near the western coast of Africa over the next few days. From NHC: “A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by later this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.”

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

8:40PM September 13, 2021

FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS… Rain totals over the next 5 days will be excessive in some spots as heavy rain associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicholas move by our region. I expect most locales in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida to pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total through Saturday morning. This means that flash flooding will be a possibility later this week. The National Weather Service may consider a Flash Flood Watch for parts of west Alabama later in the week.

NICHOLAS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN TEXAS TONIGHT… Tropical Storm Nicholas is set to make landfall along the Texas coast, likely near Freeport and Lake Jackson, in the hours ahead. Nicholas has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. 5 to 8 inches of rainfall is ahead for much of east Texas and western Louisiana. Storm surge and minor wind impacts will be possible near the immediate Texas coast near and just south of the Houston metro area.

SHOWERS & STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY… Rain chances will remain elevated across our local area on Tuesday ahead of even higher rain chances Wednesday into Thursday. Right now, there is no formal risk of tornadoes in our local area, but we may see a very limited risk of a few tornadoes on Thursday as the remnants of Nicholas move by. Forecast confidence in that idea remains fairly low for now. What we are confident about, however, is the flash flooding risk setting up for Thursday.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Monday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:49AM September 13, 2021

T.S. NICHOLAS IN THE WESTERN GULF; P.M. STORMS LIKELY LOCALLY TODAY… The 14th named tropical storm of the 2021 hurricane season, Tropical Storm Nicholas, is set to bring extreme rain amounts to parts of east Texas and western Louisiana later this week. Locally, we are not expecting major impacts due to Nicholas, although we will see a heightened chance of rip currents and potentially increased rain chances later this week due to the storm. Locally today, scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms are likely today, particularly in the P.M. hours. This intermittently wet, warm weather pattern is set to continue throughout the week. I’ve got all of your Monday morning forecast details below.

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS MOVING TOWARD TEXAS COAST… This morning, we are tracking the latest tropical storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this year, Tropical Storm Nicholas. The center of Nicholas is centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of Houston, Texas. Nicholas will likely strengthen today as atmospheric shear over the system subsides somewhat. The National Hurricane Center notes that the storm may ramp up to a hurricane before landfall later this week along the Texas coast.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LIKELY IN EAST TEXAS & WESTERN LOUISIANA… The most significant impact from Tropical Storm Nicholas is likely to be the excessive rainfall that leads to all flooding hazards (flash flooding, river flooding, and urban flooding) in east Texas later this week. Some of the more reliable weather models are indicating the potential for 12-18″ of total rainfall for parts of eastern Texas. Western Louisiana is also expected to have excessive rainfall due to Tropical Storm Nicholas. Life threatening storm surge may be possible across certain locales along the Texas coast. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for parts of Texas ahead of the arrival of Nicholas.

LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS… Increased rain chances may be possible in our local area due to the influence of Tropical Storm Nicholas. Significant impacts, including tornadoes and high winds are not expected in our local area from Nicholas at this time. High waves and rip currents are likely at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to Tropical Storm Nicholas this week. Please do not get in the Gulf if a red flag is flying at your beach location.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO… A 50% chance of tropical development zone exists in the western Atlantic Ocean, north of Puerto Rico. From NHC: “An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.”

TROPICAL WAVE SET TO EMERGE OFF AFRICAN COAST… It is the time of year when we have to carefully monitor each tropical wave that emerges from the African continent. A tropical wave that will emerge tomorrow or Wednesday has a 60% chance of becoming a named storm as the system moves west. Gradual development of the system is expected later this week.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR AZORES… This disturbance will not directly affect the continental United States. NHC says there is a 20% chance of a named storm forming. From NHC: “Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance.”

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great start to your week!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

10:11AM September 12, 2021

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN GULF; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico on this Sunday. Nicholas is expected to move north over the next few days before moving inland somewhere along the Texas or western Louisiana coast. Increased rain chances are likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida due to Nicholas later in the week.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – NICHOLAS… Regardless of if the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas makes landfall in Texas or western Louisiana later this week, deep tropical moisture will move into our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida Thursday into Friday. This means that numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across our region. For now, other local impacts like gusty winds and tornadoes seem unlikely. Rip currents and high waves will be possible at local beaches throughout the week due to swells generated by Nicholas.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TEXAS COAST… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from north of Port Aransas to High Island. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for these areas as well.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Sunday!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

7:20PM September 11, 2021

90% CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN SOUTHERN GULF… An area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche region of the southern Gulf of Mexico has a very high (90%) chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next day or so as the system slowly moves north. All major weather models show this system bringing impacts to parts of northern Mexico, Texas, and potentially even western Louisiana later this week. For now, it appears local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will remain unlikely due to this developing system, although it is too early to give a complete “all clear” just yet.

HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The National Hurricane Center has issued an updated tropical discussion for this disturbance (Invest 94L) this evening. From NHC: “A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development will be possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. By late Sunday, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat then continuing across those coasts through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.”

SEVERAL OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES… We are at the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and right on cue, we are watching four other disturbances in addition to the disturbance in the Gulf. An area of low pressure near The Bahamas has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical storm as this system moves north in the days ahead. Two tropical waves are being monitored close to the African continent. Those two waves have a 40% and 50% chance, respectively, of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. Another, separate non-tropical area of low pressure near The Azores could briefly become a tropical storm later this week. Buckle up, as the core of hurricane season is in full swing over the next two weeks!

FEW SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… Overnight lows will be in the upper-60s tonight, a bit warmer compared to the last two nights when our area enjoyed slightly below average temperatures. We are expecting a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up across the region on Sunday. We’ll call it a 30% chance of rain. High temperatures will be around 90° on Sunday.

APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a nice Saturday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:53AM September 10, 2021

COOL TEMPS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT! SUNNY TODAY AND SATURDAY… If you stepped outside this morning, you likely felt the much cooler, drier air mass in place across our region today. Low temperatures were in the low-60s in many spots. High temperatures today will “only” be in the mid- to upper-80s. Full sunshine is expected throughout the day and into tonight. I’ve got all of your Friday forecast details, including a look at the tropics, below.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: GREAT WEATHER TONIGHT… Near perfect conditions are expected for high school football across south Alabama and northwest Florida tonight. Around 7PM, we are forecasting temperatures to be near 80 degrees. Temperatures will fall into the 70s by the 4th quarter of each game. No rain is expected across the region.

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK… Higher rain chances will return to our local area Sunday into Monday as winds shift from out of the southeast. High temperatures will consistently be near 90 degrees this weekend and into early next week. Lower rain chances are ahead for Saturday and Sunday, but rain chances rise to around a 40% chance by Tuesday.

LOW-END CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… The National Hurricane Center indicates a tropical wave moving through the western Caribbean Sea has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm once the system. This system will likely never come close to south Alabama or northwest Florida. From NHC: “The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development of this disturbance before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week.”

HURRICANE LARRY MOVING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND… Hurricane Larry has now passed Bermuda and is racing northeast across the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Larry will likely cause considerable impacts to Newfoundland in Canada tonight into early tomorrow morning. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Warning from Arnold’s Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland.

SEPARATE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OFF AFRICAN COAST… A tropical wave currently situated over western Africa will move into the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend. There is a growing chance this system will become a tropical storm this weekend or early next week. The storm is expected to turn to the northwest and ultimately move out to sea. From NHC: “A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa Saturday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:53PM September 9, 2021

FEW SHOWERS & STORMS TODAY; T.S. MINDY WELL TO OUR EAST… Isolated showers and storms may pop up this afternoon into this evening, mainly in areas near the northwest Florida coast. Partly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day. The tropical disturbance we have been tracking for several days in the Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Mindy last evening. The storm made landfall in the Florida Panhandle last night. Mindy continues to move away from our local area. Your full Thursday morning forecast details are below.

TROPICAL STORM MINDY EXITS TO THE EAST… Tropical Storm Mindy made landfall last night as a tropical storm near Apalachicola, Florida. The system ramped up to a 45 mph tropical storm before weakening over the last several hours. The center of Mindy is now onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida. The center of Mindy will move into the Atlantic Ocean later this evening before dissipating in a few days.

DRIER WEEKEND AHEAD WITH LOW (NOT ZERO) RAIN CHANCES… Saturday and Sunday will feature seasonal weather for mid-September with a 20-30% chance of rain each day, due to the afternoon and evening pop-up storms. High temperatures will be near the 90 degree mark with morning lows in the upper-60s.

MORE SHOWERS & STORMS NEXT WEEK… Rain and storms will return in the afternoon and evening hours of next week as an increased southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico ushers in moist, unstable air. Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous in the afternoon and evening hours next week. High temperatures will be near 90 with morning lows near 70.

HURRICANE LARRY MOVING NORTH NEAR BERMUDA… Hurricane Larry has weakened from its peak intensity a few days ago. The storm remains a category 2 hurricane centered only a few hundred miles east of Bermuda in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda as tropical storm force winds on the outskirts of Larry are expected at times today into tonight. Hurricane Larry will pose no direct threat to the continental U.S. The storm will continue to produce large swells and rip currents on the Atlantic coast of the U.S. from Florida to Maine in the days ahead.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Thursday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

8:20PM September 8, 2021

MINDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR APALACHICOLA… Just a few hours after forming, the center of Tropical Storm Mindy is now on land in the Florida Panhandle just east of Panama City. The center of Mindy made landfall near St. Vincent Island near Apalachicola.

Rain and storms will continue in the Florida Panhandle region in the hours ahead. There is a low-end risk of a few tornadoes in areas along and east of the center of the storm. Note that our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida west of Destin and Crestview are very much on the western side of the circulation associated with Mindy.

A few showers and storms are likely overnight locally. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

4:03PM September 8, 2021

TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORMS; WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT ST. JOE… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Mindy, centered about 80 miles southwest of Port St. Joe, Florida in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Thankfully, this system won’t have much time to strengthen before moving onshore in the Florida Panhandle over the next several hours. More details are below.

LOCAL IMPACTS UPDATE – MINDY… Significant local impacts are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida, specifically in areas west of Crestview and Destin. We will continue to have intermittent showers and thunderstorms locally this evening into tonight and potentially even into early Thursday. The greatest chance of rain today is happening in northwest Florida, although we have had a few showers and storms bubble up across south Alabama as well over the last few hours.

WHAT TO EXPECT – SOUTH ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Rain will continue to be possible in the hours ahead. There is essentially no tornado risk locally in south Alabama or northwest Florida in areas west of Crestview and Destin. Why? Because our local area is already on the western side of this developing tropical system, thus the wind direction is out of the north and off the continent. Rip currents will continue to be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches over the next 24 hours. Significant local impacts are not expected.

WHAT TO EXPECT – FLORIDA PANHANDLE… We have a lot of folks that watch our local RedZone Weather content in the Florida Panhandle in places like Seaside, Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Marianna, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Wewahitchka, Indian Pass, Apalachicola, Blountstown, Tyndall AFB, and surrounding areas. We note there is a low-end tornado risk for these areas this evening into the overnight hours. Please have a way to hear urgent tornado warnings! Heavy rain will continue at times into tonight. Gusty (20-30 mph) winds will be possible near the Florida Panhandle beaches and near St. Joe Bay, Indian Lagoon, Cape San Blas, and Apalachicola Bay tonight into Thursday morning. If you know someone in these communities in the Florida Panhandle, you may want to tag them and let them know what is expected in terms of local impacts there.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING… A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River. This includes Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, and Apalachicola.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Wednesday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

2:36PM September 8, 2021

80% CHANCE OF BRIEF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN GULF… An area of low pressure now in the northern Gulf of Mexico has a high (80%) chance of becoming a brief tropical storm before the system makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle tonight. Heavy rain is happening along the coast of northwest Florida this afternoon. Significant impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected. Rain will continue to be possible at times this evening into tonight. No major tornado threat and no significant wind threat!

If/when this system becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name “Mindy.”

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!