5:00PM October 26, 2020

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF ZETA… Hurricane Zeta has prompted a Tropical Storm Watch for the entire local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. No matter if you are inland or along the coast, you are now involved in a Tropical Storm Watch. This means that tropical storm force wind gusts (in excess of 39 mph) may be possible across the entirety of our local area. There also is a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to the Alabama-Mississippi state line including several counties in Mississippi and Louisiana. The Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Alabama-Mississippi state line eastward to Miramar Beach, Florida.

LANDFALL OF ZETA LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING… The cone of uncertainty for the northern Gulf Coast now extends from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to Navarre, Florida. A landfall point in southeast Louisiana seems most likely, but further jogs to the east or west may be possible in the hours ahead. Emphasis: The landfall POINT is one point on the map. Impacts WILL extend well outward from the center of circulation and our local area is slated to be on the volatile eastern side of this storm as it passes.

The following information from my previous post earlier this afternoon remains on target. Next live video this evening!

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – ZETA… Heavy rain and tornadoes will probably end up being the greatest impacts from Zeta for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Gusty winds will also be possible near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. All coastal hazards are possible as well, including rip currents, high waves, coastal flooding, and storm surge. Fortunately, there continues to be high confidence Zeta will be accelerating northeast by the middle of the week, meaning widespread extreme river and creek flooding (like what we saw with Hurricane Sally several weeks ago) is currently NOT expected.

UPDATED TIMING OF LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS… The overall timeline of expected impacts from Hurricane Zeta has been moved to be a bit later. Noon Wednesday to Noon Thursday will be the 24 hour window when potential local impacts from Tropical Storm Zeta will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The latest guidance suggests 8PM Wednesday to 4AM on Thursday will be the 8 hour window when impacts will be most likely to happen locally across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

LIVE VIDEO THIS EVENING… We will “go live” on Facebook at some point this evening between 7PM and 9:30PM. Until then, plenty more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a good Monday evening!

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2:19PM October 26, 2020

ZETA STRENGTHENS AND IS NOW A HURRICANE… Maximum winds have increased to 80 mph near the center of Zeta, making the storm the 11th hurricane of the hyperactive 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida ARE expected from Hurricane Zeta. One change from earlier forecasts: It looks like the storm will pass by our area 6-12 hours later than suggested a day ago. This means that the impacts locally are most likely to happen from Wednesday evening into the overnight hours and Thursday morning.

LANDFALL OF ZETA EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY… The cone of uncertainty for the northern Gulf Coast now extends from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to Orange Beach, Alabama. A landfall point in southeast Louisiana seems most likely, but further jogs to the east or west may be possible in the hours ahead. Emphasis: The landfall POINT is one point on the map. Impacts WILL extend well outward from the center of circulation and our local area is slated to be on the volatile eastern side of this storm as it passes.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – ZETA… Heavy rain and tornadoes will probably end up being the greatest impacts from Zeta for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Gusty winds will also be possible near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. All coastal hazards are possible as well, including rip currents, high waves, coastal flooding, and storm surge. Fortunately, there continues to be high confidence Zeta will be accelerating northeast by the middle of the week, meaning widespread extreme river and creek flooding (like what we saw with Hurricane Sally several weeks ago) is currently NOT expected.

UPDATED TIMING OF LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS… The overall timeline of expected impacts from Hurricane Zeta has been moved to be a bit later. Noon Wednesday to Noon Thursday will be the 24 hour window when potential local impacts from Tropical Storm Zeta will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The latest guidance suggests 8PM Wednesday to 4AM on Thursday will be the 8 hour window when impacts will be most likely to happen locally across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

LIVE VIDEO THIS EVENING… We will “go live” on Facebook at some point this evening between 7PM and 9:30PM. Until then, plenty more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a good Monday evening!

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7:34PM October 25, 2020

ZETA LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY… Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to approach south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday, probably as a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane. Heavy rain, gusty winds (especially near the coast), tornadoes, and storm surge will become possible Wednesday into Thursday. Join me in this LIVE video update for the very latest on Zeta.

The following information remains completely on target from my previous post. My next long form text discussion will accompany the Monday morning video at 7:15AM.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – ZETA… Heavy rain and flash flooding will likely be the main concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida due to the passage of Tropical Storm Zeta near or over our local area. In addition, there likely will be a threat of a few tornadoes, gusty winds near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, and potentially storm surge issues. Coastal flooding and rip currents will also be concerns at the local beaches. Fortunately, there is high confidence Zeta will be accelerating northeast by the middle of the week, meaning widespread extreme river and creek flooding (like what we saw with Hurricane Sally several weeks ago) is currently NOT expected.

UPDATED TIMING – LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS… 4AM Wednesday to 4AM Thursday will be the 24 hour window when potential local impacts from Tropical Storm Zeta will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The latest guidance suggests Noon to 10PM on Wednesday will be the 10 hour window when impacts will be most likely to happen locally across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This is highly subject to change based on the latest forecast in the days ahead. Please check back for updates as the forecast becomes more precise.

TORNADO RISK ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Considering our local area will likely be on the eastern flank of Zeta (or perhaps very near the center), tornadoes will be a concern across the entire local area on Wednesday into Wednesday night. It appears the tornado risk will be maximized from Noon to 10PM on Wednesday. This timeframe is subject to change, thus please check back for updates in the days ahead.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Zeta is set to be a rainmaker across the local area, even if the center of circulation moves inland to our west. The latest rainfall total projections suggest much of our area will have 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts (5-6″). While this certainly will be a good soaking, it seems like widespread river and creek flooding is not likely to happen at this point. After the passage of Zeta, we will have dry days in store for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

STORM SURGE POSSIBLE… Storm surge may become a concern at the immediate beaches with a 2 to 4 foot storm surge being possible along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline. We will begin to get a much better assessment of the storm surge potential tomorrow into Tuesday.

WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE NEAR OUR LOCAL COASTLINE… The overall risk for high winds will be greatest near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and near where the center of Zeta ultimately moves onshore. Wind impacts farther inland (north of I-10) seem unlikely, for now.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR YUCATAN PENINSULA… The Yucatan Peninsula really cannot catch a break as this is the third hurricane warning for this area in the last month or so. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST LIKELY MONDAY… A Hurricane Watch or a Tropical Storm Watch will be needed for parts of the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. I would not be surprised to see a Hurricane Watch issued for part of our local area, based on the current projected path for Zeta.

WHAT IS DRIVING ZETA… Tropical Storm Zeta is not moving very much at all so far on Sunday. That was and is expected as Zeta is currently in an environment with very little upper-level atmospheric steering. Zeta will be drawn to the north on the western side of a developing ridge of high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area of high pressure causes air/wind to move in a clockwise fashion, meaning Zeta will be moving north or northwest over the next 2 days. You will see forward speed of Zeta increase over the next few days. Once we get to Wednesday and Thursday, Zeta will increasingly “feel” the effects of an upper-level trough of low pressure over the southwestern U.S. That, in combination with a cold front, will begin to steer Zeta northeast later in the week. The large scale pattern is set and there is high confidence in this overall setup. Despite this, it is hard to pinpoint a landfall location just yet considering how weak the storm is. Once the storm develops more and moves northwest, we will begin to see the cone of uncertainty along the northern Gulf Coast start to shrink in size.

SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… My next video update concerning Tropical Storm Zeta will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Until then, more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Sunday evening!

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4:05PM October 25, 2020

ZETA STRENGTHENS; MAY BE A HURRICANE ON APPROACH TO GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY… Zeta is expected to be either a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane as the storm approaches the northern Gulf Coast by Wednesday. Potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are likely, based on the current projected path for Zeta. Heavy rain, flash flooding, tornadoes, gusty winds (especially near the immediate coast), storm surge, coastal flooding, and rip currents at local beaches are expected. The cone of uncertainty for the center landfall point for Zeta extends from Morgan City, LA on the west to Destin, FL on the east. This means that our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is squarely in the middle of the potential impact zone for Zeta. This will likely be a storm for our area that produces quite a bit of heavy rain with a chance for a few tornadoes. Now is the time, long before we get to the risk on Wednesday, to make sure you have your hurricane plan in place. Maximum sustained winds as of the 4PM CDT advisory are now up to 50 mph. Let’s look at a few Sunday early evening forecast notes below.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – ZETA… Heavy rain and flash flooding will likely be the main concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida due to the passage of Tropical Storm Zeta near or over our local area. In addition, there likely will be a threat of a few tornadoes, gusty winds near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, and potentially storm surge issues. Coastal flooding and rip currents will also be concerns at the local beaches. Fortunately, there is high confidence Zeta will be accelerating northeast by the middle of the week, meaning widespread extreme river and creek flooding (like what we saw with Hurricane Sally several weeks ago) is currently NOT expected.

UPDATED TIMING – LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS… 4AM Wednesday to 4AM Thursday will be the 24 hour window when potential local impacts from Tropical Storm Zeta will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The latest guidance suggests Noon to 10PM on Wednesday will be the 10 hour window when impacts will be most likely to happen locally across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This is highly subject to change based on the latest forecast in the days ahead. Please check back for updates as the forecast becomes more precise.

TORNADO RISK ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Considering our local area will likely be on the eastern flank of Zeta (or perhaps very near the center), tornadoes will be a concern across the entire local area on Wednesday into Wednesday night. It appears the tornado risk will be maximized from Noon to 10PM on Wednesday. This timeframe is subject to change, thus please check back for updates in the days ahead.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Zeta is set to be a rainmaker across the local area, even if the center of circulation moves inland to our west. The latest rainfall total projections suggest much of our area will have 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts (5-6″). While this certainly will be a good soaking, it seems like widespread river and creek flooding is not likely to happen at this point. After the passage of Zeta, we will have dry days in store for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

STORM SURGE POSSIBLE… Storm surge may become a concern at the immediate beaches with a 2 to 4 foot storm surge being possible along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline. We will begin to get a much better assessment of the storm surge potential tomorrow into Tuesday.

WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE NEAR OUR LOCAL COASTLINE… The overall risk for high winds will be greatest near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and near where the center of Zeta ultimately moves onshore. Wind impacts farther inland (north of I-10) seem unlikely, for now.

4PM SUNDAY ADVISORY – ZETA… As of 4PM CDT on Sunday, October 25, the center of Tropical Storm Zeta is located at 17.7 North and 83.4 West. That is about 300 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico in the western Caribbean Sea. Zeta is basically stationary and not moving at this point. Slow, general movement to the northwest is expected to begin overnight.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR YUCATAN PENINSULA… The Yucatan Peninsula really cannot catch a break as this is the third hurricane warning for this area in the last month or so. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST LIKELY MONDAY… A Hurricane Watch or a Tropical Storm Watch will be needed for parts of the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. I would not be surprised to see a Hurricane Watch issued for part of our local area, based on the current projected path for Zeta.

WHAT IS DRIVING ZETA… Tropical Storm Zeta is not moving very much at all so far on Sunday. That was and is expected as Zeta is currently in an environment with very little upper-level atmospheric steering. Zeta will be drawn to the north on the western side of a developing ridge of high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area of high pressure causes air/wind to move in a clockwise fashion, meaning Zeta will be moving north or northwest over the next 2 days. You will see forward speed of Zeta increase over the next few days. Once we get to Wednesday and Thursday, Zeta will increasingly “feel” the effects of an upper-level trough of low pressure over the southwestern U.S. That, in combination with a cold front, will begin to steer Zeta northeast later in the week. The large scale pattern is set and there is high confidence in this overall setup. Despite this, it is hard to pinpoint a landfall location just yet considering how weak the storm is. Once the storm develops more and moves northwest, we will begin to see the cone of uncertainty along the northern Gulf Coast start to shrink in size.

SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have a special LIVE update on Tropical Storm Zeta set to start between 7PM and 9PM this evening. See you then!

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6:58AM October 25, 2020

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD LOCAL AREA THIS WEEK… Tropical Depression 28 strengthened overnight to become Tropical Storm Zeta, currently stationary in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane in the southern Gulf on Tuesday as the storm begins to move more rapidly to the northwest, followed by a turn to the north. Landfall is expected along the northern Gulf Coast in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or northwest Florida on Wednesday, probably with Zeta being either a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane at that point. The cone of uncertainty extends from Pecan Island, Louisiana eastward to Navarre, Florida. Note that even if the center of Zeta makes landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi, that puts Alabama and northwest Florida on the eastern side of this landfalling storm, meaning impacts would be LIKELY in our local area.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – ZETA… Heavy rain and flash flooding will likely be the main concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida due to the passage of Tropical Storm Zeta near or over our local area. In addition, there likely will be a threat of a few tornadoes, gusty winds near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, and potentially storm surge issues. It is a bit too early for specifics on each impact, but please understand that confidence is growing that local impacts are expected across our region.

TIMING – LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS… Right now, 8AM Wednesday to 8AM Thursday will be the 24 hour window when potential local impacts from Tropical Storm Zeta will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We will add a more refined “greatest threat” timing window in a later update once we have a better idea of when specific local impacts will happen. Be ready for potential impacts Wednesday into Thursday. This is highly subject to change based on the latest forecast in the days ahead. Please check back for updates as the forecast becomes more precise.

CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TODAY… Any lingering areas of sprinkles and rain this morning will come to an end by midday. High temperatures will be in the 75-80° range on this Sunday. We should have sunshine in place in most spots by 3PM. Winds will be light (3-8 mph) and out of the north today.

DRY MONDAY; SCATTERED STORMS TUESDAY… Partly cloudy skies are expected on Monday with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Rain chances will begin to spike on Tuesday, primarily in the evening hours, as moisture content from Tropical Storm Zeta begins to surge into our region. Showers and storms will become possible near the coast first on Tuesday evening, spreading inland throughout the night into Wednesday.

ZETA IMPACTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… It seems like Wednesday into Wednesday night will be the time when impacts will be greatest locally due to Tropical Storm Zeta. Please see the paragraphs above concerning potential impacts for what to expect during this timeframe. Rain and storms will begin to clear out on Thursday in the late morning hours.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY… Cooler, drier air arrives behind a passing cold front on Friday. Skies will become sunny for Friday into Saturday with high temperatures expected to be in the mid-70s with morning lows in the low-50s by Friday night into early Saturday morning.

EPSILON ON THE WAY OUT… Hurricane Epsilon is rapidly moving northeast at 24 mph across the northern Atlantic Ocean southeast of Nova Scotia and south of Newfoundland in Canada. Epsilon is expected to transition to be a powerful extratropical storm before moving toward the UK and Ireland in the days ahead. Other than ongoing high waves along parts of the East Coast, impacts in the U.S. are not expected from Epsilon.

REST OF THE TROPICS ARE QUIET… Other than Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta, there are currently no other areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin. I suspect, based on the latest model guidance in the medium- and long range that we will have other areas of concern pop up in the next 2 weeks, which serves as a reminder that hurricane season is not over just yet. We have about a month left until the official end of the season on November 30.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have updates throughout the day as needed in the RedZone Weather app with my next detailed update expected to be posted by 9PM this evening. Have a great Sunday!

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4:06PM October 24, 2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 FORMS; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK… The first projected path for newly-designated Tropical Depression 28 (hard to believe – 28!) is in. The National Hurricane Center in this first advisory shows very little movement for TD28 in the short term followed by a more rapid movement toward the northwest by Tuesday. TD28 will likely be Tropical Storm Zeta at that point as the storm approaches our area by Wednesday. Local impacts will become possible on Wednesday into Thursday across our region, specifically in the form of heavy rain being possible. Other impacts may become an issue but it is too early to be specific. We will need to be on guard, in the days ahead, for forecast changes specifically concerning local impacts. Tornadoes, storm surge, gusty winds near the coast, and other impacts may become possible.

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7:00AM October 24, 2020

90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING; RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES TODAY… We will probably see a tropical storm develop in the next few days in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center continues to put the odds of this happening at around a 90% chance. Regardless of if development happens, this likely means an increase in rain chances will happen across the local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday into Thursday of the upcoming week. It is too early to know if wind impacts (and other impacts like tornadoes and storm surge) will be possible. The preliminary data shows a weaker system moving north somewhere in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Obviously that is a huge area (half of the Gulf!) and we are unable, with the available data right now, to pinpoint a potential landfall point just yet. Regardless of where this storm ends up, it will not be an issue for our local area today, tomorrow, or on Monday. Please be sure to check back in over the next few days for the latest info.

SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY TODAY… Scattered areas of rain and storms are likely today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Not everyone will have rain before the end of the day, but there could be a few storms involved at times. Cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rain will be possible in the strongest of the storms. Widespread severe weather is not expected today. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s.

EPSILON ON THE WAY OUT… Hurricane Epsilon continues to quickly move northward in the open waters of the northwest Atlantic Ocean. The center of Epsilon is located about 350 miles north-northeast of Bermuda this morning as the storm continues to race into the open waters of the northern Atlantic. Epsilon will transition from a hurricane to a powerful extratropical storm in the days ahead. Direct local impacts in Alabama and Florida are not expected from Hurricane Epsilon.

The forecast notes concerning INVEST 95L from last night have not changed and remain on target this morning.

SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY MEANS VERY LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NOW… No one, and I genuinely mean NO one, can tell you exactly where this storm will end up OR if it will for sure consolidate and form into a tropical storm. Generally speaking, if this storm gets its act together quicker, it will be more likely to move across Cuba and then potentially into the southeastern Gulf. If this disturbance remains weak this weekend, it is more likely to meander and linger in the western Caribbean Sea before being jolted to the north later next week (Tuesday into Wednesday) potentially toward the northern Gulf Coast. Again, simply too early for ANY specifics.

BETTER GRASP OF POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS BY MONDAY… There are some limiting factors that could hinder development of this system entirely (dry air to the west that may get wrapped in to the system, a shortwave trough passing near our area that could tug the system northeast in a couple of days, etc.), but trends today have pointed to a developing tropical storm. It is expected and normal in this stage of development for a tropical cyclone to have AMPLE uncertainty about not only the future intensity of the storm, but also the future track. I imagine we will begin to get a much more firm grip of where this storm will ultimately move by Monday morning.

HURRICANE SEASON ENDS NOVEMBER 30… I can promise you I am just as ready as you are for hurricane season to come to an end. We have had an impactful, long, hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2020. We are all fatigued because of the COVID situation, storm after storm, and tons of RISK this year. I understand we are all tired of it, but please (emphasizing: PLEASE) do not let your guard down from the tropics just yet. We are certainly getting close to the end of the season, but are not quite done just yet. Please be sure to check back with me in the days ahead for the very latest information. Just like every storm so far this year, I promise we’ll get you through this one too!

NEXT NAME: ZETA… If this tropical disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name Zeta which is the 6th letter in the Greek Alphabet. If more named storms happen after Zeta, they will take the names Eta, Theta, Iota, and Kappa. I have had several questions over the last few weeks about what would happen if we ran out of Greek letters for names. That simply will not happen. It is a statistical impossibility. Hurricane season will end November 30. There always is a chance for a post-season storm or two in the basin, however IF we continued to have named storms into December and January (not expected, but also not completely impossible) we would reset the naming list on January 1. Any named storms that form after January 1 would take the names from the 2021 list (Ana, Bill, Claudette, etc.)

APP… Many updates will be posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app concerning this developing tropical system. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have another detailed update later this evening, IF significant changes happen in the status of INVEST 95L. Have a nice Saturday!

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7:14PM October 23, 2020

HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN… There is now a 70% chance that a tropical storm will form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days as a developing area of low pressure slowly drifts north or northwest. This would take the name “Zeta” if it becomes a named storm (see the detailed discussion about the naming scheme below). This area of low pressure is currently branded as INVEST 95L. There is an apparent mid-level circulation already in place near the Cayman Islands, meaning we are probably well on our way to a tropical depression forming this weekend or early next week. It remains too early, on this Friday evening, to determine if or when specific local impacts will happen because of this developing tropical storm in our local area. Some models have hinted at the potential for increased rain chances by Wednesday and Thursday of the upcoming week, but it is simply too early to know for sure IF our area will have specific impacts. Be sure to check back with me this weekend and early next week for the very latest on this developing system. A few Friday evening forecast notes are below.

SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY MEANS VERY LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NOW… No one, and I genuinely mean NO one, can tell you exactly where this storm will end up OR if it will for sure consolidate and form into a tropical storm. Generally speaking, if this storm gets its act together quicker, it will be more likely to move across Cuba and then potentially into the southeastern Gulf. If this disturbance remains weak this weekend, it is more likely to meander and linger in the western Caribbean Sea before being jolted to the north later next week (Tuesday into Wednesday) potentially toward the northern Gulf Coast. Again, simply too early for ANY specifics.

BETTER GRASP OF POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS BY MONDAY… There are some limiting factors that could hinder development of this system entirely (dry air to the west that may get wrapped in to the system, a shortwave trough passing near our area that could tug the system northeast in a couple of days, etc.), but trends today have pointed to a developing tropical storm. It is expected and normal in this stage of development for a tropical cyclone to have AMPLE uncertainty about not only the future intensity of the storm, but also the future track. I imagine we will begin to get a much more firm grip of where this storm will ultimately move by Monday morning.

HURRICANE SEASON ENDS NOVEMBER 30… I can promise you I am just as ready as you are for hurricane season to come to an end. We have had an impactful, long, hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2020. We are all fatigued because of the COVID situation, storm after storm, and tons of RISK this year. I understand we are all tired of it, but please (emphasizing: PLEASE) do not let your guard down from the tropics just yet. We are certainly getting close to the end of the season, but are not quite done just yet. Please be sure to check back with me in the days ahead for the very latest information. Just like every storm so far this year, I promise we’ll get you through this one too!

NEXT NAME: ZETA… If this tropical disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name Zeta which is the 6th letter in the Greek Alphabet. If more named storms happen after Zeta, they will take the names Eta, Theta, Iota, and Kappa. I have had several questions over the last few weeks about what would happen if we ran out of Greek letters for names. That simply will not happen. It is a statistical impossibility. Hurricane season will end November 30. There always is a chance for a post-season storm or two in the basin, however IF we continued to have named storms into December and January (not expected, but also not completely impossible) we would reset the naming list on January 1. Any named storms that form after January 1 would take the names from the 2021 list (Ana, Bill, Claudette, etc.)

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app concerning this developing tropical system. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have another detailed forecast update posted by 7:15AM on Saturday morning. Be sure to join me for that. Have a great Friday evening!

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10:51AM October 23, 2020

TROPICAL STORM MAY FORM THIS WEEKEND IN CARIBBEAN OR SOUTHERN GULF… Talk about a significant forecast change! The National Hurricane Center now suggests there is a 60% chance of a tropical storm forming in the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead with a chance of this system moving north toward the Gulf Coast. It is too early to know IF or when local impacts will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida, although early indications point to higher rain chances for the local area by the end of the upcoming week (approximately one week from now). Sea surface temperatures are significantly cooler in the Gulf of Mexico compared to the peak of hurricane season a few weeks ago, but this system goes to show: We’re not completely done with hurricane season just yet. I know SO many folks (including yours truly!) are very much ready for hurricane season to be over, but we still have a few weeks left. Hang with us in the days ahead and we’ll monitor trends and forecasts and bring you the latest in our RedZone Weather app. The next tropical name from the Greek Alphabet is Zeta. More details are below.

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The 60% chance of tropical storm formation now in place for INVEST 95L represents a significant forecast change over the last 12-18 hours. Last night, the National Hurricane Center highlighted the area of concern in the Caribbean Sea (INVEST 95L) with a low-end (20-30%) chance of development with the storm likely moving northeast into the Atlantic. A northeasterly motion was also featured this morning at 2AM, which is what we highlighted in our morning video. NOW, a motion toward the Gulf of Mexico is expected due to a fairly abrupt shift in model guidance to the west. All of these changes highlight the continued uncertainty with the exact future of this developing tropical system.

LOCAL IMPACTS TO BE DETERMINED… It is too early to know IF or WHEN local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen due to this developing tropical system. Models this morning, frankly, are “all over the board” with different tracks and intensities for this system going into next week. Impacts, if they happen locally, seem most likely to happen some time from Wednesday through Friday of the upcoming week. Please understand that is a tentative idea, based on the data we have at this moment, and is highly subject to change in the days ahead.

HURRICANE SEASON FATIGUE IS REAL… This is the LAST possible thing that anyone along the Gulf Coast (or really any coastal resident in the Atlantic Basin!) wants to hear after our hyperactive hurricane season so far. I understand that and to be frank, I am more than ready for hurricane season to end. However, just because we are all fatigued of hurricane season does not mean this risk will just “go away.” Thus, I would plead with you to please check in for updates in the days ahead. Hopefully this system will dissipate or just be a rainmaker. We will keep you posted every step of the way.

STORMS LIKELY TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON… The radar is quiet at the time I am writing this update around 10:45AM. I expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Severe weather is not expected, but there could be cloud-to-ground lightning in the stronger storms and isolated downpours of heavy rain. These areas of rain and storms are not associated with the tropical system, but are instead affiliated with the passing area of low pressure moving across our region tonight. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed in the RedZone Weather app.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have the next update on this developing system later this evening or sooner, if warranted. I will have plenty more updates coming in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead.

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6:53AM October 22, 2020

ISOLATED STORMS LATER TODAY; HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW… A few thunderstorms will become possible this afternoon into this evening ahead of higher rain chances across our region on Friday. Storms that do fire up today will be more scattered in nature, meaning there is a good chance that most of us will remain dry. High temperatures will yet again be in the mid-80s today. Rain and storms are expected to be more numerous in coverage on Friday as an upper-level trough passes by to our north. We continue to monitor Hurricane Epsilon in the Atlantic. Epsilon will not be a direct concern for the local area. Let’s look at all of your Thursday forecast notes, below.

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY… Widespread severe weather is NOT expected on Friday, but we could have some loud thunder at times as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms fire up. Most of the rain and storms will fire up in the afternoon and early evening hours.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS FORECAST… Not all of the local football games will be wet on Friday evening, but there inevitably will be some locales that have rain and storms around. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance that any given game will have rain around. Take the umbrella and rain gear and keep tabs on the radar at redzoneweather.com/radar or in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app.

FEW LINGERING STORMS ON SATURDAY; DRIER SUNDAY… Most spots will begin to dry out on Saturday. There could be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms before 5PM, but I expect all of the rain to be gone by the time we get to sunset on Saturday evening. Dry conditions are expected on Sunday with high temperatures in the 80s.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK… Our next chance of cooler air is set to arrive behind a cold front by Wednesday and Thursday of the upcoming week. There is some model disagreement about specifics, but it looks like we will have highs in the 70s by the end of next week. Forecast confidence in this idea is rather low, and I suspect we may have some changes in tomorrow’s forecast video.

HURRICANE EPSILON IN ATLANTIC… Hurricane Epsilon continues to move north-northwest in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean on this Thursday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda as some of the outer effects on the western side of the hurricane may affect Bermuda today, tonight, and into Friday. No direct U.S. impacts are expected because of Epsilon, other than high waves along the East Coast in the days ahead. Hurricane Epsilon is expected to turn northeast and move out to sea before becoming extratropical this weekend or early next week.

REST OF THE TROPICS ARE QUIET… Outside of Hurricane Epsilon, the north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico are quiet with no new tropical storms expected to develop in the next 5 days. The previously outlined low-end chance of tropical storm formation in the Caribbean Sea is now completely off the board. Good news!

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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6:55AM October 21, 2020

FEW CLOUDS TODAY; RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… Other than a few passing clouds on this Wednesday, we will be dry and warm. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s today. A few showers and thunderstorms may become possible Thursday afternoon ahead of higher rain chances on Friday. Severe weather continues to be unlikely on Friday, but we will have rain and storms around at times. Rain will be possible at times on Saturday as well ahead of a drier few days on Sunday into Monday. Tuesday is when our next cold front will approach. The front is slated to bring cooler temperatures to our region in the latter half of next week.

ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… There is a good chance that most of the day on Thursday will be dry. We could see a few thunderstorms popping up after 1PM, mainly in communities along the eastern side of our region in Butler, Covington, and Okaloosa counties.

RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day on Friday, extending into Friday evening. If you’re planning to go to a high school football game Friday evening, I would plan for rain and storms. Storms could be loud at times on Friday but at this point, severe weather continues to be unlikely to happen. All of the rain and storms on Friday into Friday night are because of an area of low pressure moving in from the west. This will pave the way for Gulf moisture to increase across the region.

10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… The area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea is not expected to become a tropical storm, at this point. The National Hurricane Center continues to outline this area in a low-end (10%) chance zone where tropical storm development may happen, but it is obvious (based on the latest model trends) that development is unlikely. The upper-level environment is simply unfavorable for development at this point. Good news!

TRACKING HURRICANE EPSILON… Bermuda may have some of the outer effects of Hurricane Epsilon over the next few days as the system passes just to the east of the island commonwealth. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Bermuda. Epsilon will likely remain a category 1 hurricane as the storm passes the island. Epsilon is forecast to turn to the north followed by a turn to the northeast. This means that Epsilon won’t ever be a direct threat to the U.S. other than potentially causing some high waves along the Eastern Seaboard.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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6:56AM October 20, 2020

SUNNY TODAY & WEDNESDAY; RAIN & STORMS BY FRIDAY… Mainly sunny skies will continue to be in place across the region both today and tomorrow ahead of increased rain chances late Thursday into Friday. We are also tracking Tropical Storm Epsilon in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Epsilon will not be a direct concern for our local area in the days ahead. The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean also continues to look rather weak with no significant development expected. At this point, it looks like warmer weather is here to stay for awhile. See all of the explanations in your Tuesday forecast notes, below.

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON IN ATLANTIC… Tropical Depression 27 strengthened into Tropical Storm Epsilon late yesterday morning. Epsilon is the fifth Greek Alphabet-named storm. The good news is Epsilon will not ever be a direct local threat for Alabama or northwest Florida. The system will likely move near or just to the east of Bermuda later this week or this weekend, probably as a hurricane. Epsilon will likely then turn northeast and move out into the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean before becoming extratropical next week. No U.S. impacts are expected other than perhaps high waves along the Eastern Seaboard.

10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center has maintained an outlined area in the western Caribbean Sea for upwards of a week, suggesting the potential for tropical development. The latest model guidance is quite “bearish” on the prospects of this happening, meaning development seems increasingly UNLIKELY. This is good news. From NHC: “A trough of low pressure extends southeastward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea to a broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and is primarily located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This large disturbance is expected to consolidate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so before move drifting westward toward the Yucatan peninsula by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula through midweek.”

STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… Friday is slated to be the wettest day out of any day in the next 7 days as an area of low pressure moves by our region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday. We actually may have a few storms around on Thursday evening, but I expect those storms to be more scattered in nature. At this point, severe weather seems rather unlikely. Our secondary severe weather season generally kicks off around November 1, so we will need to start monitoring each passing storm system more diligently in the weeks ahead. For now, no real signs of severe weather are on the table. Good news!

NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSIONS… The longer range weather models do not currently show any signs of a significant cool down at any point in the next 7-9 days. High temperatures look to remain in the 80s with lows in the 60s through the middle part of next week. There could be more rain and storms on the horizon around a week from today, but that idea is certainly not set in stone at this point.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Hope you have a great day!

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6:56AM October 19, 2020

SUNNY START TO THE WEEK BUT RAIN & STORMS RETURN BY FRIDAY… Sunshine is the story on this Monday but we are looking ahead to the end of the week when we could have rain and storms coming back into our local forecast. Mostly sunny skies are expected on this Monday with high temperatures in the mid-80s across the region. Clear skies are likely overnight with lows in the lower-60s by Tuesday morning. Clouds will begin to increase in coverage by Wednesday ahead of a few showers and thunderstorms becoming possible on Thursday in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain will probably be greatest in coverage locally on Friday this week. Let’s look at all of your Monday forecast details.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to outline an area in the western Caribbean Sea where an area of low pressure may form later in the week. There is at least some chance that this area of low pressure will become a tropical storm. At this point, it appears that even IF formal development of this system happens, local impacts in the Gulf of Mexico seem unlikely. This is hurricane season and obviously that can change, but the trends continue to look favorable for our area with no impacts from this system expected for now.

SUBTROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN ATLANTIC… There is a high (90+%) chance that a subtropical depression or subtropical storm will form southeast of Bermuda in the open waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean later today or on Tuesday. From NHC: “Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 600 miles southeast of Bermuda is poorly organized and displaced well east of the low-level center. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or so while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.”

RAIN & STORMS TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… Locally, an upper-level trough will swing through our region later this week. Most of the major weather models continue to show a surface area of low pressure developing to our west and moving near or across our area on Friday. This means we will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms around on Friday. For now, severe weather remains unlikely. Be ready for rain on Friday night if you plan to go to a local high school football game.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video. Have a great start to your week!

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7:15AM October 17, 2020

COOL TEMPS TODAY; FANTASTIC WEEKEND WEATHER… Mostly sunny skies are expected across the region on this Saturday. While most spots had overnight lows in the upper-40s and low-50s locally, we recover to the mid-70s this afternoon around 3PM. If you checked your thermometer this morning, please let me know the specific overnight low with your city/town! Clear skies are expected tonight with overnight lows again in the low-50s for Sunday morning.

80% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC… An area of low pressure located in the Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda now has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. Regardless of if formal development happens, this system will likely remain well away from the continental U.S.

30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the southern Caribbean Sea near Panama over the next few days. This area of low pressure will likely move northward toward the vicinity of Jamaica and Cuba next week. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 30% chance of this area of concern becoming a tropical storm in the next 5 days. Model trends continue to show this feature being a potential issue for Jamaica, Cuba, and The Bahamas. While Gulf impacts seem unlikely for now, it is entirely too early to completely rule out impacts.

Have a wonderful Saturday!

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6:56AM October 16, 2020

GORGEOUS WEEKEND AHEAD; TEMPS IN 40s BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY… It does not get much better for a weekend in the Deep South! Temperatures will peak in the mid-70s across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon now that a cold front has moved by our region. Skies will be increasingly sunny today with clear skies expected tonight for the high school football games across our region. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 65-70 degree range at 7PM with temperatures closer to 57-60 degrees by the 4th quarter for many of the local games. Overnight lows by 6AM Saturday will be in the upper-40s across inland areas of south Alabama with low-50s more likely near the coast. Regardless of the specific temperature in your location, this definitely will feel like fall. Sunny skies will continue Saturday into Sunday.

30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK… Next week could see another tropical storm develop in the Caribbean Sea, this time most likely somewhere near Jamaica. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is now a 30% chance of an area of low pressure developing and becoming a tropical storm most likely around Tuesday or Wednesday of the upcoming week. Tropical development is NOT expected this weekend in the Caribbean. We note that global models continue to surprisingly be in good agreement, even in the medium-range, in suggesting a tropical storm will quickly develop and move northwest toward Cuba. Most of the major models ramp the system up to a hurricane as the system then races out into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean after passing The Bahamas. While it is a bit surprising just how consistent models have been with this idea in the last few days, it is still far too early to rule out any impacts for the United States. I will continue to monitor trends this weekend and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.

SEPARATE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA… Another, totally separate tropical storm may develop in the days ahead in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean in areas southeast of Bermuda and north of the Lesser Antilles. NHC gives this a 30% chance of happening in the next 5 days. Regardless of if formal development happens with this system, direct U.S. impacts appear unlikely at this point.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO RICO FIZZLES OUT… The tropical wave we have been tracking for several days, now situated near Puerto Rico, has completely fizzled out. NHC lowered development odds to near 0% yesterday. INVEST 93L, as the tropical wave was known, is now off the board. Good news!

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!

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6:56AM October 15, 2020

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FRIDAY; SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE TODAY… Cooler air is set to arrive late tonight as a cold front moves across our region. High temperatures on this Thursday will be in the mid-80s but on Friday, high temps will struggle to get to the upper-70s. I can’t completely rule out a few showers on the eastern side of our region this afternoon into this evening, but I expect vast majority of us to remain dry. We’re set to have one of our cooler mornings on Saturday when overnight lows will dip into the upper-40s across inland areas with low-50s likely closer to the immediate coastline. The weekend looks phenomenal with temperatures in the 70s in the afternoon hours. Let’s look at all of your Thursday forecast details.

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK… Mostly sunny skies look to continue into next week. High temperatures will rise into the 80s by Monday into Tuesday with overnight lows consistently expected to be in the 60s.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center notes a broad area of low pressure may form in the southern Caribbean Sea, north of Panama, early next week. This area of disturbed weather currently has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 5 days. A gradual movement to the north is expected, although it is far too early to speculate where this system will end up. Be sure to check back this weekend and early next week for updates.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR LESSER ANTILLES NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP… The tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles (branded as INVEST 93L) continues to move northwest. Heavy rain will be possible near the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico in the days ahead because of this system. The National Hurricane Center says the odds of development are at a 10% chance. Regardless of if formal development happens, this system will likely remain weak and ultimately dissipate in the days ahead.

DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP IN ATLANTIC… From NHC: “A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice day!

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8:30PM October 14, 2020

3 TROPICAL AREAS OF CONCERN THIS EVENING… The National Hurricane Center is now suggesting there are 3 distinct areas of concern that all have a low-end probability (at the moment) of becoming tropical storms in the next few days. I would suggest the disturbance that our area should monitor the most diligently in the days ahead will be the one currently situated in the southern Caribbean Sea, just north of Panama. This is, unfortunately, yet another sign that we are not quite done with hurricane season just yet. There is a lot we simply do not know this evening as we are very early in the process of these developing storms. The below details outline what we do know.

DISTURBANCE #1 APPROACHING PUERTO RICO… This is the tropical wave we have been tracking for several days that has maintained the low (10-20%) probabilities of becoming a tropical storm. From NHC: “A broad area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Thursday morning, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea late Thursday into Friday, and Hispaniola Friday night into Saturday.”

DISTURBANCE #2 LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK… Model guidance has been consistent in the medium- and long-range suggesting the idea of a tropical storm forming in the western Caribbean and moving north or northwest. If any of these disturbances pose a risk to the Gulf of Mexico, I would suggest it would probably be this one based on the ongoing guidance. It is encouraging that MOST of the model guidance thus far has suggested this system may eventually cross Cuba and move out into the open waters of the Atlantic, however it is too early to say for sure that will be the case. We will keep you posted every step of the way in the days ahead.

DISTURBANCE #3 MAY DEVELOP IN ATLANTIC… From NHC: “A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.”

NEXT TROPICAL NAMES… We continue to dive deeper into the Greek Alphabet for our tropical storm and hurricane names since we ran out of the standard alphabet names several weeks ago. We have already observed Subtropical Storm Alpha, Tropical Storm Beta, Tropical Storm Gamma, and Hurricane Delta. The next names in the Greek Alphabet will be Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Theta.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Thursday. See you then!

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6:52AM October 14, 2020

SUNNY & WARM TODAY; 40s LIKELY BY SATURDAY MORNING… After starting the day in the upper-50s this morning for inland areas of south Alabama, high temperatures will yet again rise into the mid-80s on this Wednesday. The cooler temperatures this morning were in response to a cold front passing by our area late yesterday. Another, separate cold front will move across our region on Friday, paving the way for temperatures to be in the upper-40s across inland areas on Saturday morning. Overall, our streak of nice, mostly sunny, quiet days is set to continue. We are monitoring a tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles, but that likely won’t ever be an issue for the Gulf of Mexico. Below are all of your Wednesday forecast details.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY… Mostly sunny conditions are expected today, tomorrow, and on Friday. Temperatures will peak in the 70s on Friday ahead of picture perfect weather for high school football on Friday evening. Game time temperatures at 7PM will be around 70 degrees, falling to the low-60s by the end of each game. Temperatures will be at their coolest point at any time in the next 7 days on Saturday morning when inland areas will be in the upper-40s while coastal areas will likely be in the low-50s.

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK… Mild days and cool nights will remain the story as we go into next week. Mostly sunny skies are expected each day. We note there is a chance we may need to increase rain chances by Tuesday of the upcoming week, but model data is not firm enough to include rain chances just yet.

20% CHANCE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL STORM… The tropical wave we have been tracking for several days in the Atlantic Ocean continues to move westward toward the Lesser Antilles. There is a 20% chance this tropical wave increases in organization today and becomes a tropical storm. From NHC: A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 350 miles east of the Windward Islands. Although this disturbance continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of the center, strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development for the next few days. However, the system will move west-northwestward through the end of the week, and produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds across the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and Hispaniola on Friday.

LONG RANGE TROPICAL IDEAS… Some of the longer range weather models have hinted at the idea of some potential tropical mischief forming in the west-central Caribbean Sea in 7-9 days. There is currently no indication of any Gulf impacts with that developing storm, but it is way too early to write that possibility off just yet. It is also way too early to have any type of stress, worry, or even second thought about this. I am simply including this in our text discussion as I am aware there is a possibility you may see the crazy loons posting single model, single run, single worst case scenario images in the days ahead. The big takeaway here is we may have some tropical issues in about a week in the Caribbean, but there is currently no real scenarios pointing to any Gulf impacts. We’ll keep watching. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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6:58AM October 13, 2020

SUNNY DAYS & CLEAR NIGHTS AHEAD; WARM TODAY BUT COOLER BY FRIDAY… Mostly sunny and warm conditions are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Tuesday. High temperatures will again be in the mid- to upper-80s. We’re looking ahead to our first cold front moving through later tonight ahead of another, more powerful cold front slated to move by on Friday into Saturday. Despite warm temperatures yesterday and today, the upcoming weekend will be chilly at times with overnight lows in the upper-40s and near 50 in most spots by Saturday morning. The tropics are generally quiet other than a tropical wave moving west near the Lesser Antilles. Let’s look at a few forecast details.

NO RAIN IN SIGHT… Our weather pattern continues to look increasingly dry for much of October. No rain chances are noted at any point in the next 7-10 days. Climatologically speaking, October is typically our driest month of the year.

30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… The National Hurricane Center continues to outline a tropical wave as an area of concern in the Atlantic Ocean, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. NHC suggests this tropical wave has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead as it moves westward. Development odds will probably lessen later today as this tropical wave is set to move into an environment soon where development will be less likely to happen. Regardless of if formal development happens, this system will likely never come close to the Gulf of Mexico.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice Tuesday!

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6:52AM October 12, 2020

QUITE WARM TODAY; COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK… We start the week feeling like summer and we end the week feeling like fall. High temperatures on this Monday will be in the upper-80s across the region with plenty of sunshine. By Friday, highs will struggle to get to the 80 degree mark. Sunshine is expected all week long with only a few passing clouds at various times. Our next big weather shift will happen on Thursday when a cold front moves through our region. Overnight lows by Saturday morning could easily be in the upper-40s for most spots across the interior of southwest Alabama.

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD LOCALLY… There continues to be good evidence in all of the major weather model guidance that our area will have an extended streak of nice, quiet, sunny weather. I see no signs of severe weather and very little chance of rain at any point in the next 7-10 days.

30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR ANTILLES… The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. NHC says there is now a 30% chance of formal tropical development over the next day or so before upper-level winds become unfavorable for additional development on Wednesday. Regardless of if this system briefly becomes a tropical storm, shear will likely rip the system apart in the next few days. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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7:12PM October 11, 2020

COOL WEATHER TO RETURN BY FRIDAY… Monday and Tuesday are slated to be quite warm, but temperatures will quickly fall later this week as a cold front passes through our region. High temperatures on Friday will be in the mid-70s ahead of overnight lows on Saturday likely to be in the 40s. Plenty of sunshine is expected this week with no major weather issues to report.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… Before you think twice about this and start having any type of worry, please understand there is a very high probability this system won’t even make it past the Lesser Antilles. We’re watching a tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles that has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm. Environmental conditions may briefly support development on Monday or Tuesday, but as the tropical wave reaches the Lesser Antilles, atmospheric shear is expected to totally rip the system apart. Great news!

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday with the very latest information. See you then!

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2:23PM October 10, 2020

ALL CLEAR: TORNADO RISK DUE TO HURRICANE DELTA HAS ENDED LOCALLY… The tornado risk has ended for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida in areas west of Destin and Crestview. While a few more showers and thunderstorms may happen across the region this afternoon, we are not expecting more severe weather issues. The tornado risk continues for the next few hours for east Alabama, the Florida Panhandle east of Destin, and for west Georgia.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT… Thank you to everyone who watched our long duration tornado warning coverage this morning. We had several warnings spanning several hours of coverage. As always, I appreciate it when you support RedZone Weather and when you support our wonderful RZW sponsors! redzoneweather.com/sponsors

Have a great evening!

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10:17AM October 10, 2020

TORNADO RISK BEGINNING TO DECREASE; FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON… The overall tornado risk across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida is beginning to significantly decrease as a complex of showers and storms continues to push eastward across our region. The Tornado Watch that was in effect for the entire region is being cancelled from west to east as this line of storms moves through. After this main batch of storms moves through your location, the atmosphere will become much more stable. We could have a few showers around this afternoon into this evening, and while there is a very high probability that we have seen the worst of the tornadic activity earlier this morning, I won’t be able to give the entire region a complete “all clear” until later this evening, just because there is a very, very low end chance that a few storms this afternoon could rotate and potentially produce gusty winds and maybe a tornado. So again, just to clarify, we’re going from low risk this morning to very, very low risk this afternoon. We’ll be able to have “zero risk/all clear” by 6PM tonight most likely.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST THIS EVENING… There is now a Level 2 (out of 5) tornado risk in place for much of east Alabama and western Georgia in the hours ahead, driven by the potential for a few tornadoes throughout the day as the core of Hurricane Delta continues to pass to our northwest. This includes places like Montgomery, Auburn, Dothan, Enterprise, Troy, Eufaula, Alexander City, and surrounding areas.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA MOVING NORTHEAST… Hurricane Delta was downgraded to tropical storm status at 1AM this morning, followed by the downgrade to tropical depression status moments ago at 10AM. The center of Delta as of the latest 10AM advisory is located about 65 miles north-northwest of Jackson, Mississippi. Delta continues to rapidly move northeast at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 35 mph. Delta will continue to weaken and likely become a remnant low tonight or tomorrow.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… This system probably won’t develop, but even if it does, it won’t be a tropical storm that lasts very long most likely. From NHC: “A westward moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Slow development of this system could be possible later this weekend or early next week while the wave continues moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week.”

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

We will have live tornado warning coverage as needed throughout the day. In addition, plenty more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app. Be looking for an “all clear” message later this evening when we can say goodbye once and for all to Hurricane Delta and its tornado impacts for our local area.

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7:08AM October 10, 2020

TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED FOR 3 COUNTIES… The tornado watch has been cancelled for all parts of Choctaw, Washington, and Mobile counties in southwest Alabama. These counties are now behind the main complex of storms moving across our area and are now OUT of the tornado watch.

TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES TO THE EAST… All parts of Clarke, Wilcox, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Crenshaw, Covington, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties continue to be involved in the Tornado Watch valid until 1PM. I expect counties to be cancelled from west to east in the coming hours.

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