MORE RAIN & STORMS AROUND TODAY; FORECAST ON REPEAT THIS WEEKEND… Showers and thunderstorms will again be a fixture of the forecast on this Thursday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely at times today with some of the storms being loud and/or strong. The good news is significant severe weather is not expected today and there is no pronounced tornado risk. Consistent afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms are likely today, Friday, and into the weekend. High temperatures today and over the next few days will be in the upper-80s and near 90. We continue to track a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf, another disturbance in the Atlantic, and Potential Tropical Cyclone #2, aka Tropical Storm Bonnie, now in the south-central Caribbean Sea. A few more Thursday morning forecast notes are below.
WEEKEND POP-UP STORMS LIKELY… If you have outdoor plans this weekend ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Monday, consider an indoor backup. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely each day this weekend, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a real chance storms may get going fairly early near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches each day. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and low-90s this weekend with morning lows around 72.
INVEST 95L IN GULF MOVING TOWARD TEXAS COAST… The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico continues to funnel deep tropical moisture toward the Texas coast this morning. This system has a 40% chance of briefly becoming a tropical storm before making landfall along the Texas coast over the next day or so. From the National Hurricane Center (NHC): “Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days.”
PTC #2/BONNIE RAPIDLY MOVING WEST IN SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN… A Hurricane Watch has been posted for part of the coast of Nicaragua ahead of the arrival for what could be a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane tomorrow into Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone #2, aka what will likely become Tropical Storm Bonnie (if it hasn’t already by the time you’re seeing this update) continues to rapidly move west at 15-20 mph. The system will emerge over the warm waters of the southeastern Caribbean Sea before moving into Central America this weekend. This system may be one of the rare Atlantic Basin storms that survives and moves into the Eastern Pacific Basin. IF the system maintains its low-level center of circulation, the next Eastern Pacific name will not be used and the system will remain “Bonnie.” If, however, the system loses its low-level structure, the storm will take the next name of the Eastern Pacific Basin IF it redevelops into a tropical storm on the Eastern Pacific side. Regardless of any of this, no direct local impacts are expected in Alabama or northwest Florida from this system.
TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC ALSO PUSHING WESTWARD… Another, separate tropical wave (several hundred miles behind PTC #2/Bonnie-to-be) is pushing west-northwest across the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. From NHC: “A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.”
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See all the details in your Thursday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!
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