STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW-END SEVERE RISK… Our active weather pattern continues as the Storm Prediction Center now includes part of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in their severe weather risk zones valid for Thursday afternoon and evening. While the core dynamics of this strong weather system will clearly pass to our north, there still will be an opportunity for some of the storms in our area to become strong and potentially briefly severe at times. The greatest severe weather risk with this system on Thursday will happen across north Alabama and north Mississippi, while the greatest chance of seeing a strong to severe storm in our local area will happen over Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, and Marengo counties in west Alabama. We’re also looking ahead to the weekend when cooler, more stable air takes hold of our weather pattern. Let’s talk details…
NICE, WARM WEDNESDAY… Despite clouds being on the increase today across the region, rain is not expected. The earliest showers could happen late this evening across the western part of Alabama, but most of the rain across our area will happen on Thursday. High temperatures today will peak in the mid- to upper-70s. There will be some sunshine mixed in with the mostly cloudy skies today.
RAIN LIKELY BEFORE SEVERE RISK THURSDAY… Scattered showers will be possible Thursday morning despite the severe weather risk likely not ramping up until later in the day. You’ll need the rain jackets handy on both Thursday and Friday.
LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of north and west Alabama in their standard, slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) zone to potentially have a few isolated severe thunderstorms Thursday P.M. into early Friday. Only the northwestern corner of our local area is included in this risk – places like Coffeeville, Campbell, Millry, Butler, Silas, Toxey, Gilbertown, Sweet Water, and Pennington. The Level 2 risk extends northward into areas like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, Hamilton, Jasper, Cullman, Double Springs, Moulton, Decatur, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, and Florence.
LEVEL 1, LOW-END RISK FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA… Communities along and west of Interstate 65 are included in the low-end, marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk zone where the atmosphere is not nearly as supportive for severe storms, although a strong storm or two will be possible. For our local area, much of Clarke, Monroe, Washington, Mobile, and Wilcox counties are included in this zone.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO – SQUALL LINE… The most likely situation with this severe weather potential is that a squall line (quasi-linear convective system or QLCS) moves through our region. This line of storms will likely weaken as it moves eastward across our area.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS LOCALLY… The tornado risk across south Alabama and northwest Florida remains low. The main risk will come from the potential of damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms on Thursday. This risk will primarily set up across west Alabama. The risk of large hail remains low as does the risk of flash flooding.
COLD FRONT MOVES BY FRIDAY… One of the reasons we are having this low-end potential for strong to severe storms is because of the lifting mechanism of an approaching cold front. This front will slide by our region from northwest to southeast early Friday morning. High temperatures Friday will be stuck in the 60s with overnight lows headed to the 40s this weekend as cool air moves in.
APP ALERTS… You can keep tabs on the latest info about the severe weather risk throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.
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