7:14AM August 8, 2020

HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100° TODAY & SUNDAY… Hot temperatures with increasingly humid conditions are expected today and tomorrow across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Rain chances on this Saturday remain in the 10-20% chance range, meaning vast majority of us across the region will remain dry and hot. Rain chances will be a touch higher on Sunday, but the real deal in terms of showers and thunderstorms will kick off on Monday and last through the next week. The big story today will be just how high temperatures and heat index values will be. The graphic attached highlights the projected heat index value for each given community valid at 2PM today. You’ll certainly need the sunscreen if you’re going to be outside for an extended period today into this evening. Air temperatures will peak around 94-96° in most spots, but when you factor in the dewpoint, you get these excessively high heat index values. Stay cool today! A few more Saturday forecast notes are below.

ISOLATED STORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON… Most of us will be dry across the region on this Saturday and again tomorrow. A few lucky spots in northwest Florida and southern Baldwin and Mobile counties had some measurable rainfall yesterday, but just like what is expected today, most of us will remain dry and hot with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE WEEK… Monday through Wednesday look increasingly wet, unsettled, and warm. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to bubble up in the afternoon and evening hours each day next week. These likely won’t be organized, severe storms, but rather the pop-up, quick-hitting thunderstorms of summer that can produce localized downpours and quite a bit of lightning and thunder. High temperatures next week will be in the low-90s with morning lows in the low-70s.

TROPICS QUIET… The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean are quiet with tropical development remaining unlikely over the next 3-5 days. We note NHC is watching a tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and Africa that has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next few days. Environmental conditions will likely become unfavorable for development and sustaining of a tropical storm as this system moves into a more hostile environment in the next few days. Thus, even if a storm develops, it likely won’t last long.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Saturday!

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2:02PM August 7, 2020

STRONGER STORM NEAR CRESTVIEW… Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to pop up across coastal counties this afternoon. Heavy rain is happening along the Interstate 10 corridor between Harold and Crestview near the FL85 exit.

Storms are also in progress near Beulah, Elberta, and Seminole near the AL/FL state line. These storms are moving very slowly (5-10 mph at most) to the northeast.

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6:50AM August 7, 2020

MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY; STORMS RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to our daily forecast next week. Before we get there, we have a hot, mostly dry Friday and Saturday on tap. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-90s today and tomorrow with heat index values potentially in the 100-105° range. There could be a few rogue showers and thunderstorms today, but I expect most locales to remain dry. A few showers happened across parts of Okaloosa County yesterday, but pretty much everyone else across the region was dry. We’ll have more showers and storms like that today (maybe not in the same areas) but likely very isolated in nature. That will be the trend again on Saturday ahead of higher rain chances on Sunday into Monday. The good news is the tropics are currently quiet. Let’s look at all of your weekend forecast details.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES BY MIDWEEK… Next week looks increasingly unsettled with a high chance of P.M. showers and thunderstorms each day. I do not see any signals that suggest any type of organized severe weather threat, but I do see the potential for scattered pop-up thunderstorms each day that will be capable of producing heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in the stronger storms. High temperatures will consistently be around 90 degrees each day next week with morning lows near 70.

TROPICS QUIET FOR NOW… The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean remain without any areas of concern that have a potential of becoming a tropical storm over the next 3-5 days, per the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center. Activity will likely pick up as we get into the latter part of August.

VERY ACTIVE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AHEAD… NOAA is now projecting a “hyperactive” hurricane season with 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. The season has early indications of being similar to the 1995, 2005, and 2010 seasons that were all quite active. If you missed my detailed writeup about this last evening, here it is.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great weekend!

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8:02PM August 6, 2020

NOAA OUTLOOK: “HYPERACTIVE” HURRICANE SEASON PROJECTED… NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU) are both predicting that the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be “hyperactive,” similar in some aspects to the 1995, 2005, and 2010 seasons. Seasonal outlooks do not forecast what specific areas of the Atlantic basin (like the Gulf of Mexico, as an example) will have more in the way of activity. If historical trends are any indication, however, (and they are) usually no particular part of the basin is immune from seeing more in the way of named storms. While long time viewers and readers know that I encourage everyone to take seasonal outlooks with a proverbial grain of salt, there is very little (if any) doubt that this hurricane season will be one for the record books. Let’s talk about why.

HISTORIC, FAST START TO HURRICANE SEASON… Why am I so confident in the idea that hurricane season will be quite active? Look at what has happened so far: We’ve already had 9 (yes, nine) named storms and it’s only August 6th. The ninth named storm of most hurricane seasons happens in early October. According to NOAA, “historically, only two named storms form on average by early August.” Two. Not anywhere close to nine. Majority of the named storms this year have set records as to their early formation. In other words, Hurricane Isaias set the record for the earliest forming “I-named” storm by surpassing the naming of Hurricane Irene in 2005 by eight days. We have already had five named storms make landfall in the United States this year (Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, and Isaias). It is true that sometimes you’ll have quite an active start to hurricane season but a more quiet end, but conditions and parameters that fueled the season to be hyperactive thus far look to remain in place over the next few months.

LA NINA IN PLACE IN THE PACIFIC FUELS STORMS IN ATLANTIC… It is mind boggling to think about, but the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean often have a pronounced impact on just how active (or how inactive) hurricane season is in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. This year, the teleconnection in place is La Nina, where the ocean temperatures near the Equator in the Pacific west of Ecuador are COOLER than average. This teleconnection can cause the wind shear that would normally be in place across parts of the Atlantic basin to be weaker than average, thus allowing storms to develop, be stronger than they otherwise would be, and potentially last longer.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL “ACE” VALUES EXPECTED… This is a great explainer from the NOAA press release this morning discussing the revised outlook. “A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season. Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. “This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.” You can read the article in its entirety here: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin

CAN’T GET SPECIFIC TOO FAR OUT… While seasonal outlooks are sometimes helpful, keep in mind that the above information from NOAA and CSU are merely helping to paint a broad picture of what is to come. In other words, we’re driving down the road through hurricane season. We can see that there likely are some “hurricane obstacles” in the way of our drive but what those obstacles are remains to be seen. In other words, no one (and I mean NO ONE) can say for sure when and where hurricanes will (or won’t) happen over the next few months. Odds are the U.S. WILL have a few more tropical storm or hurricane impacts but it’s too early to know exactly where. This gets into another problem that we’ve seen over the last few days (outlined below).

*PLEASE* DON’T TRUST THE FEAR MONGERS… Leave it to a person with no meteorology training whatsoever to be able to get 10,000 shares on Facebook showing one model image from one model run of a major hurricane in the Gulf in 16 days. A few thoughts on this… 1) It’s August. Could a major hurricane form in the Gulf in 16 days? Yep, it’s very possible. 2) Is that scenario likely at this point? NO, it’s not. Model confidence beyond 7 days out is very, very low. Beyond 14 days out is simply throwing things on a wall and seeing what sticks. There is zero skill in forecasting in that range. 3) When “Tropical Weather Page,” and “Uncle John’s Weather Shack” and similar vague named pages on Facebook post these viral, one model solutions, it is not only irresponsible, it’s also dangerous. Why? Because “cry wolf syndrome” is a very real thing. People that are not as “weather aware” generally have no idea what’s real and what’s not on social media. If you are reading this far into my post this morning, odds are you’re QUITE “weather aware” (and I really appreciate that!). Friends don’t let friends share these fake, fear mongering posts!’

TROPICS ARE QUIET FOR NOW… The bit of good news I have this evening is that we are NOT expecting tropical storm formation this weekend or early next week! The National Hurricane Center in their Tropical Weather Outlook suggests the Atlantic basin (including the Gulf and the Caribbean) will remain quiet through Monday. Even hyperactive hurricane seasons can have extended breaks, and that is certainly a good thing!

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM Friday. See you then!

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6:52AM August 6, 2020

FEW STORMS THIS EVENING; RAIN & STORMS MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND… Cumulus clouds and heat remain the local weather story, with a very low (10-20%) chance of storms today. Temperatures will reach the 90s again this afternoon as our consistent summer weather pattern is set to continue on this Thursday. Just like what happened yesterday, I expect rain and storms to be widely spaced this afternoon into this evening. There could be one or two areas of localized downpours today, but vast majority of us will remain dry. Rain chances are set to rise this weekend as a persistent upper-level trough across our region begins to weaken and move away. This will allow daily convection in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms to return this weekend into early next week. Looking ahead over the next 7 days, the tropics are set to remain quiet! Let’s look at all of your Thursday forecast details.

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS… Unfortunately, I don’t see anything in the model signals that suggests any cooler (or cold) air anytime soon. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s in each of the next 7 to 10 days. Morning lows will consistently be in the low-70s. This is typical for early- to mid-August when temperatures don’t really ever move that much unless we have a tropical system or hurricane that causes clouds to linger for days. That is currently not in the forecast.

EVENING STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK… Our streak of drier days is set to come to an end slowly over the next 2-3 days. Rain chances will return to more seasonal levels (40-60%) as we go into Sunday and the first half of the upcoming week. No signs of organized severe weather at this point, but these daily pop-up thunderstorms can, and likely will, produce torrential downpours of rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds in the strongest of the storms.

INVEST 94L HANGING ON BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN… The only area of disturbed weather that the National Hurricane Center has outlined in their Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook is what is left of INVEST 94L, located southwest of Bermuda. The system is moving southwest very slowly. NHC gives the system a 10% chance of development through the weekend. Their latest discussion reads: A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This low is expected to drift west-southwestward during the next couple of days. Any development of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to dry air and increasing upper-level winds by the weekend.

CARIBBEAN & GULF REMAIN QUIET AS OF NOW… The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain quiet with no tropical storms expected to develop over the next 5-7 days. I had several questions Tuesday night about a viral post going around social media showing a raw model output image of a major hurricane in the Gulf in late August. I had this same paragraph in yesterday’s forecast discussion but it is worth repeating: A few thoughts on this… 1) It’s August. Could a major hurricane form in the Gulf in 16 days? Yep, it’s very possible. 2) Is that scenario likely at this point? NO, it’s not. Model confidence beyond 7 days out is very, very low. Beyond 14 days out is simply throwing things on a wall and seeing what sticks. There is zero skill in forecasting in that range. 3) When “Tropical Weather Page,” and “Uncle John’s Weather Shack” and similar vague named pages on Facebook post these viral, one model solutions, it is not only irresponsible, it’s also dangerous. Why? Because “cry wolf syndrome” is a very real thing. People that are not as “weather aware” generally have no idea what’s real and what’s not on social media. If you are reading this far into my post this morning, odds are you’re QUITE “weather aware” (and I really appreciate that!). Friends don’t let friends share these fake, fear mongering posts!

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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6:49AM August 5, 2020

FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON; TROPICS QUIET FOR NOW… Sunny skies with puffy, white cumulus clouds this afternoon into this evening are what you can expect on this Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s with heat index values near 100 this afternoon. Rain chances today remain low (10-20%) meaning vast majority of us should remain dry, but I cannot completely rule out the chance of a few showers or a storm or two. Tomorrow and Friday will be similar to today with increasing rain chances expected for the weekend. Tropical Storm Isaias became post-tropical last night as it raced northward across New England and southern Canada.

HOT & MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THURSDAY… Our region will continue in a hot, mostly dry pattern through tomorrow with only a small chance of showers and storms. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s. The greatest chance of rain (again, only a 10-20% chance) will be across inland areas of south Alabama. No severe weather issues are expected.

RAIN CHANCES RISE THIS WEEKEND… If you’ve missed the rain and storms over the last few days, there is good news to report. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across the area increasingly from Saturday to Monday. Storms will be most numerous in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Highs will remain in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.

ISAIAS IS NOW POST-TROPICAL… Perhaps one of the most controversial named hurricanes in recent times is now a memory: Hurricane Isaias is now off the board. The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory late last evening when the system was declared post-tropical over southern Canada, north of Vermont. Isaias made landfall in North Carolina as a strengthening category 1 hurricane. Several tornadoes happened yesterday in the mid-Atlantic region as Isaias moved by rapidly to the north.

TROPICS ARE QUIET FOR NOW… Now that Tropical Storm Isaias is officially off the board, we’ll be focusing on tropical waves and any developing areas of low pressure in the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, or the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean. Right now, I don’t see any areas of concerns in those zones. The National Hurricane Center is watching INVEST 94L, a tropical disturbance located southwest of Bermuda. From NHC: “A small well-defined low has formed within a broader trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system is producing very little thunderstorm activity at this time, but some slight development is possible while the system moves little during the next couple of days. A southwestward drift is forecast on Thursday and Friday.”

DON’T TRUST THE FEAR MONGERS… I had several questions last evening in regard to a post on a “weather page” on Facebook showing one model image from one model run of a major hurricane in the Gulf in 16 days. A few thoughts on this… 1) It’s August. Could a major hurricane form in the Gulf in 16 days? Yep, it’s very possible. 2) Is that scenario likely at this point? NO, it’s not. Model confidence beyond 7 days out is very, very low. Beyond 14 days out is simply throwing things on a wall and seeing what sticks. There is zero skill in forecasting in that range. 3) When “Tropical Weather Page,” and “Uncle John’s Weather Shack” and similar vague named pages on Facebook post these viral, one model solutions, it is not only irresponsible, it’s also dangerous. Why? Because “cry wolf syndrome” is a very real thing. People that are not as “weather aware” generally have no idea what’s real and what’s not on social media. If you are reading this far into my post this morning, odds are you’re QUITE “weather aware” (and I really appreciate that!). Friends don’t let friends share these fake, fear mongering posts!

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a good day!

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4:18PM August 4, 2020

ISOLATED SHOWERS… If you look closely on this radar image, you’ll find three distinct areas of rain happening early this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. One area of showers is happening near McKenzie, Chapman, and Bolling in Butler County. Another shower is happening near Appleton and just north of Brewton along US-31. Another shower is happening near Salitpa in Clarke County. Showers are moving east today.

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6:58AM August 4, 2020

MOSTLY SUNNY & HOT TODAY; ISAIAS OVER NORTH CAROLINA… Another hot, mostly sunny day is on tap for south Alabama and northwest Florida as high temperatures make a run at the 94-97° range in most spots this afternoon. Rain chances remain very low (10-20% chance range) across the region. Could there be a rogue storm or two? Yes, but the odds of your specific location getting wet remains very low today. Isaias made landfall late last evening in the southeastern corner of North Carolina near Holden Beach, which is just northeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina very near the NC/SC state border. Isaias was a hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds of 85 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning continues from South Carolina to Maine along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. as Isaias is now plowing to the northeast rapidly at 16-18 mph. Elsewhere in tropics, we’re also keeping an eye on INVEST 94L, located in the central Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda and north of Puerto Rico. Both Isaias and INVEST 94L won’t ever directly affect our local area. Let’s look at your Tuesday forecast details…

HOT, HUMID, LOW-END CHANCE OF P.M. STORMS THIS WEEK… Mostly sunny skies are expected each day through Thursday as a big ridge of high pressure remains in control of our local weather pattern. Showers and storms will be few and far between each day, although I cannot completely rule out a rogue storm or two in the daytime/early evening hours. High temperatures each day will be in the mid-90s with morning lows in the low-70s. Heat index values in the afternoon will almost certainly top 100 degrees each day.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND… Our daily deluge of scattered (more widespread) showers and thunderstorms will return this weekend into the early part of next week. Rain chances will start their gradual rise on Friday, with higher (50-60%) rain chances in place by Monday. I don’t see any signs of organized severe weather in sight, but we do see more in the way of “splash and dash” storms returning next week.

ISAIAS ON THE WAY OUT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST… Hurricane Isaias made landfall last evening near Oak Island, North Carolina as a strong category 1 hurricane. Just like Hurricane Hanna a few weeks ago, I am glad the system was coming onshore in North Carolina with no further time to strengthen over water as there appeared to be a bit of rapid strengthening right before landfall. Isaias will maintain tropical storm strength as it lifts northeast into the mid-Atlantic region followed by New England later this evening. We note that a Tropical Storm Warning extends from the Carolinas northward Maine, including all of the coastlines of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. Wind gusts of 50+ mph will be possible near New York City later this evening.

INVEST 94L IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING NORTHWEST… Odds of development for INVEST 94L, the tropical disturbance located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda and north of Puerto Rico, appear to be fading slightly. NHC says there is now a 40-50% chance of development into a tropical storm. No land impacts are expected from 94L, regardless of if development happens as the system will likely fade away rather quickly later this week.

GULF, CARIBBEAN, TROPICAL ATLANTIC QUIET… The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the remainder of the Atlantic Basin (east of 94L and Isaias) are quiet with no new tropical storms expected to form in the next 3-5 days.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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2:13PM August 3, 2020

ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON… Two lone storms have fired up this afternoon as of 2:15PM. One storm is producing heavy rain near McKenzie and Georgiana in southern Butler County. This storm is moving northeast. Another small area of rain has fired up over the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta south of the Dolly Parton Bridge and Interstate 65.

More isolated storms will likely fire up over the next few hours.

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11:54AM August 3, 2020

FEW SHOWERS IN COVINGTON COUNTY… Isolated showers have formed across Covington County at midday. Isolated small areas of downpours are happening near Rose Hill, Straughn, Antioch, Wing, and Andalusia. Showers are drifting northeast at 15-20 mph.

These showers are at the tail end of a boundary that extends northeast all the way to north Alabama. More showers and storms will be possible over the next few hours.

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6:48AM August 3, 2020

ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY TODAY; ISAIAS TO MAKE CAROLINA LANDFALL… Mostly sunny skies are likely on this Monday with a few pop-up thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will peak this afternoon in the 93 to 96 degree range across our region with heat index values between 100 and 100 degrees. Our forecast locally will essentially be on repeat in the days ahead with low (not zero!) rain chances and hot temperatures. We continue to watch Isaias off the eastern coast of Florida in the Atlantic Ocean. The system will continue to rapidly move north and northeast in the days ahead. Landfall is expected in the Carolinas tomorrow morning most likely as a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. We’re also monitoring a tropical disturbance south of Bermuda in the Atlantic. I’m excited to debut some new weather graphics in the video this morning! Be sure to see the paragraph below about that to learn about some neat changes. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.

STORMS MOST NUMEROUS INLAND TODAY… Most spots will be dry on this Monday, but we could have a few highly isolated storms bubble up this afternoon into this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be most numerous across inland areas today. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will be possible in the stronger storms.

MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS… Each day through Friday will be quite similar with hot temperatures, plenty of humidity, and P.M. pop-up storms being possible. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s this week with morning lows in the low- to mid-70s. Our focus will increasingly be on the tropics over the next few days.

ISAIAS MOVING NORTH ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD… Isaias, at the time of this writing, remains a tropical storm. The system has been hovering between hurricane and tropical storm status with winds fluctuating between 70-75 mph. The differentiation is truly a technicality at this point as Isaias is holding its strength as it moves northward. The system has basically paralleled the Atlantic coast of Florida for the last two days. The center of circulation this morning is about 60 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida or about 320 miles south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Isaias is poised to make landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina probably early on Tuesday morning. The system will continue to accelerate in forward speed to the north and ultimately northeast as it moves across basically the entire Eastern Seaboard in the days ahead, all the way up to Maine. Impacts in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia will include heavy rain, high wind gusts, and potentially isolated tornadoes, in addition to beach hazards like high waves, storm surge, and rip currents. No direct local impacts are expected from Isaias in Alabama or northwest Florida.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES & WARNINGS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST… It certainly isn’t everyday that a tropical system prompts a Tropical Storm Watch and Tropical Storm Warning that extends from Florida all the way northward to Rhode Island. That is the situation this morning with a Tropical Storm Warning extending from Sebastian Inlet, Florida northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for part of this same zone from South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including all parts of Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay, Long Island, and Long Island Sound. I expect a Tropical Storm Watch to be issued farther northward, potentially all the way to Maine later today.

INVEST 94L – 60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT… The National Hurricane Center continues to outline an area of disturbed weather south of Bermuda and north of the Leeward Islands that has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical storm this week. Regardless of if this particular system develops into a tropical storm, local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are NOT expected. From NHC: “A trough of low pressure is located about 300 miles north-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the trough has decreased during the past few hours and the system does not appear to be very well organized at the surface at this time. However, environmental conditions are expected to allow some slow development of the system to occur during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls southwest or west-southwest of Bermuda by the end of the week.”

GULF & CARIBBEAN ARE QUIET… While we monitor Isaias near the East Coast and INVEST 94L in the Atlantic, we note that the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are quiet with no tropical storm formation expected in those two zones over the next 3-5 days. Good news!

ROLLOUT OF OUR NEW GRAPHICS… After months of research, planning, and development (and years of snapping aerial photos), I’m excited to roll out our brand new forecast video graphics package this morning. There are MANY changes (too many to list here) both in what you see and how our videos are made everyday, but the most important change for you is the new background graphics visible in every forecast graphic (the Day Planner at the beginning of the video and the 7 Day Forecast graphic toward the end of the video). You’ll notice that the background images change based on the projected weather forecast for that day. I’ve taken hundreds of aerial photos over the last several years in all types (both good, bad, common, and not-so-common) of weather. These images will be featured in the background every, single time we produce a forecast video. The background image is now reflective of the forecast, making our videos even easier to understand each day. As a reminder, our normal production schedule is six days per week. One video airs on Sunday in the afternoon/evening hours then a morning forecast video debuts every weekday morning by 7:15AM. I hope you like our new “look.” Let me know what you think!

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great start to your week!

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6:43PM August 2, 2020

ISOLATED STORM NEAR MONROEVILLE… Torrential downpours are happening across parts of Monroe County, AL this evening due to the storm near Monroeville, Mexia, Frisco City, and Peterman. This lone, isolated storm is moving northeast at 20-25 mph. This storm is under severe limits, but very heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds are happening. This storm will likely clear out of Monroeville in 45 minutes or so.

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3:44PM August 2, 2020

STORMS OVER WEST ALABAMA… Scattered storms continue to fire up across parts of west Alabama this evening. Heavy rain is happening near Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Salitpa, Whatley, Fulton, and Thomasville.

Storms continue to move northeast.

An isolated storm has also formed near and just south of Crestview in Okaloosa County.

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7:08AM August 1, 2020

MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY & SUNDAY; HURRICANE ISAIAS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA… Hot, mostly sunny conditions are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Saturday. Rain chances today remain very low (10-20%) across the region. High temperatures will approach 95 degrees in many areas locally with heat index values likely to be between 100 and 105 this afternoon. If you’re headed to a local beach, creek, or getting out by the pool today, grab that sunscreen as the UV Index will be sky high. We continue to track Hurricane Isaias as it approaches the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle where we are, but the Peninsula). A Hurricane Warning is in effect for much of the east (Atlantic) coast of Florida. It is going to be a close call as to if the center of Hurricane Isaias makes landfall along the Atlantic coast of Florida. What is NOT a close call, however, is that Isaias definitely won’t be a direct local issue for Alabama or northwest Florida. No impacts are expected in our region. We are also watching a weak, short-lived tropical depression near the African continent that is likely to completely dissipate later today or tonight. Let’s look at your forecast details…

LOCALLY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND… Sunshine is the word today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s with a very low chance of rain. We could have a few more clouds and perhaps a few more in the way of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, but I expect rain chances to overall be pretty low. 10-20% chance of rain today and then a 20-30% chance of rain on Sunday sounds reasonable at this point. High temperatures will remain in the mid-90s on Sunday.

HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA… A Hurricane Warning has been issued for a long stretch of the Florida Atlantic coastline. The Hurricane Warning extends from Boca Raton northward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for parts of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast later tonight or on Sunday.

ISAIAS TO POTENTIALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA… There still is some question as to if Hurricane Isaias will actually make landfall in the Florida Peninsula perhaps near or north of Miami. Regardless of if this happens or not, it looks like the center of circulation associated with Isaias will be very close to the eastern coast of Florida as the system moves north. This means that hurricane impacts, including high wind gusts, heavy rain, and high waves will all be concerns for the east coast of Florida.

ISAIAS IMPACTS LIKELY IN CAROLINAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Hurricane Isaias will first affect Florida, but next in line for the system will be an encounter with South Carolina and North Carolina on Monday into Tuesday as the system begins accelerating to the northeast. The system will likely be a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane when it passes through the eastern part of the Carolinas, per the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. Heavy rain, flash flooding, isolated tornadoes, high wind, and high waves will all be a concern. Isaias is expected to move through the Northeast U.S. on Tuesday into Wednesday.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NEAR AFRICAN COAST… A tropical wave moved off the African coast on Thursday and briefly flared up to tropical depression status late on Friday. The depression is in an area where sea surface temperatures are not conducive for much more (if any) development. The depression is moving north at 5-10 mph just northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

FEW STORMS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK… We return to more of a seasonal summer pattern as we get into the middle part of the upcoming week. High temperatures will remain in the mid-90s with morning lows in the low-70s. Rain chances by Tuesday into Wednesday will be in the 40-50% chance range.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have updates posted throughout the day and into this evening as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Saturday!

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6:58AM July 31, 2020

HURRICANE ISAIAS STAYS EAST OF OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND; SUNNY FRIDAY… Isaias surprised just about everyone late last night in quickly becoming the second hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While the official forecast called for hurricane intensity becoming likely on Saturday, the system wasted no time getting its act together as it moved north of Hispaniola. The good news for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is that no direct local impacts are expected due to Hurricane Isaias. The system will almost certainly pass far to our east. Unfortunately, for our friends along the Atlantic coast of Florida, The Bahamas, and the Carolinas, Isaias is poised to bring at least some type of impact this weekend into early next week. Let’s look at all of your forecast details…

SUNSHINE TODAY & SATURDAY; LOW RAIN CHANCES… Locally on this Friday, we have plenty of sunshine in store with low rain chances. There could be a rogue storm or two around today, but I expect vast majority of us to remain dry and hot. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s. Heat index values could easily hit or briefly top 100 degrees this afternoon into the early evening. Saturday will essentially be a carbon copy repeat of today with only a handful of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Highs will again be in the mid-90s. There will be plenty of sunshine at local beaches this weekend for folks looking to get out and enjoy the water/sand.

SHOWERS & STORMS RETURN SUNDAY… Rain chances will rise on Sunday into Monday. We’ll call it a 40-50% chance of storms each day with high temps in the low-90s. Widespread severe weather is not in store, but some of the storms could feature loud thunder, heavy rain, and gusty winds in the strongest of the storms. Note that these increased rain chances are due to pop-up storms and NOT associated with Hurricane Isaias.

ISAIAS IS NOW A HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS… A U.S. Air Force “Hurricane Hunter” recon crew found hurricane-force winds near the center of Isaias last evening, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue a special advisory at 11PM CDT to upgrade Isaias to a hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all islands/locations in The Bahamas.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA… A Tropical Storm Watch continues for the east (Atlantic) coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet. That basically is from Vero Beach southward to Homestead, including Miami, Miami Beach, Hialeah, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Coral Springs, Boca Raton, West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, and surrounding areas. I expect these areas to go under a Tropical Storm Warning and perhaps a Hurricane Watch later today.

ISAIAS TO MOVE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST; COULD BE ISSUE FOR CAROLINAS… Basically everyone from Miami, FL northward to Maine should keep a close watch on Hurricane Isaias as the system looks to parallel or be very near the U.S. Atlantic coastline over the next few days. Details are still a bit fuzzy as to just how close the center of circulation will be to specific areas, but the general idea is certainly good that Isaias will be just offshore, near the coastline, or near coastal areas of the Eastern Seaboard in the days ahead. Right now, the most likely scenario is that the center of Isaias will remain off the east coast of Florida in the Atlantic with a potential landfall more likely in North Carolina. There also could be another landfall in the Northeast, perhaps near Cape Cod. The big takeaway here is that impacts from Hurricane Isaias will be possible along the East Coast of the U.S. in the days ahead. A Tropical Storm Watch and/or a Hurricane Watch will be inevitably be required for more sections of the East Coast this weekend into early next week.

NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS IN LOCAL AREA… Hurricane Isaias will almost certainly remain WELL to our east with no direct impacts expected in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Something monumental would have to shift in the forecast for ANY impacts to happen anywhere close by, and that is just not expected to happen. A big trough in the jet stream moving eastward across the U.S. will move over our area and basically act as somewhat of a repellent from Isaias this weekend. It is reasonable at this point to give you an “all clear” from Hurricane Isaias if you’re in south Alabama or northwest Florida.

I will have updates as needed this weekend concerning Hurricane Isaias in the RedZone Weather app.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great evening!

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4:18PM July 30, 2020

Tropical Storm Isaias Near Hispaniola

TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF ISAIAS… Tropical Storm Isaias is surviving its impact today with the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, meaning the system will likely strengthen over the next few days as it moves over The Bahamas. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now calls for Isaias to become a hurricane this weekend as it moves near or perhaps just east of the Florida Peninsula in the Atlantic Ocean. The latest forecast calls for potential impacts in South Carolina and North Carolina early next week when Isaias will probably be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane. Confidence continues to grow and is now overall very high that no impacts from Isaias will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida. This will very likely be an “East Coast system.” A few Thursday evening forecast notes are below…

NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH… The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east (Atlantic) coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet. That basically is from Vero Beach southward to Homestead, including Miami, Miami Beach, Hialeah, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Coral Springs, Boca Raton, West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, and surrounding areas.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS… All of the islands in The Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. All of the coastline of the Dominican Republic and the northern coastline of Haiti are also under a Tropical Storm Warning.

SURVIVING HISPANIOLA MIGHT SIGNAL A STRONGER SYSTEM SOON… The fact that Tropical Storm Isaias has been able to basically survive and be in tact with a new center of circulation likely forming on the northern side of Hispaniola in the southern Atlantic might indicate that the system is a bit more robust and steady than previously realized. There is a good chance that the system will strengthen over the next 2-3 days and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the official intensity forecast from NHC be revised slightly higher soon. Southwesterly shear may help to mitigate rapid strengthening in 2-3 days, but overall, there is now a high chance that Isaias will be a hurricane as it approaches the southern part of Florida. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed tomorrow for South Florida and eventually for parts of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast as Isaias approaches.

LOCALLY, WE’RE DRY AND HOT… Pop-up thunderstorms have not materialized today locally as expected. We knew that rain coverage would be less than previous days but so far, storms have not happened. There is a 20-30% chance over the next few hours that some areas across south Alabama and northwest Florida will have a few showers and storms, but we may have to knock that chance down to zero soon depending on radar trends. I’ll have updates as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday are expected to be dry and hot with high temperatures in the mid-90s with plenty of sunshine.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Thursday evening!

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6:53AM July 30, 2020

ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TODAY; TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NEAR PUERTO RICO… Today will serve as somewhat of a transition day as we move away from very high rain chance days to lower rain chances this weekend. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on this Thursday. Most of the showers and storms will happen after 1PM. A few stronger storms may produce torrential downpours, loud thunder, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe weather is not expected today, however. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Isaias, currently located near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the northeast Caribbean Sea. “Potential Tropical Cyclone #9” was finally upgraded to Isaias last night at 10PM now that a low-level circulation center has formed. Isaias will move northwest toward The Bahamas today and tomorrow, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Isaias is expected to be very near the U.S. East Coast in the days ahead, with local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida NOT expected at this time.

STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY… Compared to the last few days, there should be far fewer in the way of showers and thunderstorms across our region this afternoon into this evening. There still will inevitably be isolated pop-up thunderstorms in progress this evening, but the overall coverage will be less. High temperatures today will be a bit warmer than previous days since our area won’t have as many clouds around. Highs will be in the 85-89° range in most spots. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed today in the RedZone Weather app.

MOSTLY SUNNY & HOT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… We get a much-needed break from the endless supply of rain on Friday into Saturday. Rain chances will be in the 0-10% chance range on Friday as the plume of moisture from the Gulf takes a temporary break. Plenty of sunshine is in store on both Friday and Saturday. Grab the sunscreen if you’re headed to a local beach, creek/river, or pool as the UV Index will be excessively high.

MORE SHOWERS & STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return on Sunday into Monday. I expect storms to be widely spaced and there is a good chance that most spots will be without rain each day. High temperatures will remain in the 90s with morning lows in the low-70s.

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NEAR PUERTO RICO… The system formerly known as INVEST 92L and then Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 has finally become Tropical Storm Isaias now that a low-level circulation has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Isaias is expected to move over or just north of Hispaniola today, and there is a high chance the island’s rugged terrain will really do a number on the system and rip it apart. The center of Isaias may reform tonight in the Atlantic just north of Hispaniola. The system, regardless of whether it is significantly affected by Hispaniola, will continue rapidly moving northwest at 15-20 mph tonight and tomorrow. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely in the Turks & Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas tonight into Friday. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a 65 mph tropical storm approaching the southern part of Florida near Homestead, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Pompano Beach. The NHC forecast takes Isaias northward toward Jacksonville before lurching northeast toward the Carolinas early next week. I would suggest confidence in this idea is growing rather quickly, thus folks in the Florida Peninsula (NOT the Panhandle where we are) should really be watching this system carefully. I don’t *think* explosive development will happen as we have dry air AND atmospheric shear ahead of the system as it approaches Florida, but we all know sometimes tropical systems can misbehave and have some surprises in store. Good confidence in this point in the track guidance, however. Breathe easier if you’re in the local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Looks like Isaias will completely miss our area to the east!

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MANY AREAS… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the following places: Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the entire southern and northern coastlines of the Dominican Republic, the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, the Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. We also note a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini. A Tropical Storm Watch will be required tonight or tomorrow for parts of south Florida, potentially including the Florida Keys and areas near Miami.

GULF & TROPICAL ATLANTIC QUIET, FOR NOW… The Gulf of Mexico and the remainder of the tropical Atlantic (east of and behind Tropical Storm Isaias) are quiet with the National Hurricane Center noting that no other tropical storms are forecast to develop over the next 3-5 days. There are a few tropical waves near the African continent but NHC suggests those waves are unlikely to develop due to ongoing dry air to the north of each wave. Good news!

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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7:22PM July 29, 2020

PTC#9, AKA ISAIAS, LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA… The large tropical wave we’ve been tracking over the last several days that was in the Atlantic Ocean has now crossed into the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system has taken the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, but for the sake of simplicity, it is helpful to think of this system as basically a tropical depression. This system has clearly struggled to organize over the last few days and a low-level center of circulation has yet to form. That is officially why the system is not a tropical storm (or a classified tropical depression) just yet. The system IS producing tropical storm force winds near the U.S and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. While there are still plenty of questions that we just don’t know the answer to just yet, confidence is now much higher that impacts from PTC#9 (aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Isaias soon) will likely never happen in Alabama or northwest Florida. There is also high confidence that this system will be some type of issue (magnitude unknown) for the East Coast of the United States. Let’s look at what we know on this Wednesday evening…

LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA ARE UNLIKELY… First things first, let me be clear that there is good confidence this evening that whatever becomes of this system, big impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida are now unlikely. This is not a complete all clear just yet, but this is a “breathe easier tonight as confidence is pretty high that this system will never bring impacts to our local area.” Why is this? A few reasons… 1) The overall trend (and I don’t mean the microscale trends, I mean the overarching ideas here) have been that this system would likely be an issue for the East Coast of the United States. That has been a consistent theme of this system since it emerged off the African coast several days ago. 2) The upper air pattern over Alabama and northwest Florida don’t exactly suggest we would have impacts EVEN IF the system makes it into the eastern Gulf. A large trough in the jet stream will be moving into our area this weekend. This trough (and a big ridge of high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic) will act to steer PTC#9/Isaias to the north and ultimately northeast early next week. 3) Let’s hypothetically say the system moves into the Gulf this weekend and skirts northward along the current eastern side of the cone of uncertainty. In that scenario, most (if not all) of the impacts of the system would be over the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle) and on the eastern side of the system. Our area, in that scenario, would be on the west side of the system with an offshore flow. Big takeaway here is that confidence is high (and growing) that local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are now unlikely.

UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS, BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL MOTION… Once Potential Tropcial Cyclone #9 forms a low-level center of circulation, models will be able to have a better grasp of future motion. Keep in mind, there absolutely IS still a possibility that PTC#9/Isaias is ripped apart by the high terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic (Hispaniola) and perhaps Cuba if the system takes a more southerly track. Most models today have trended toward the idea of potentially forming a low-level center north of Hispaniola with a stronger system moving into The Bahamas and ultimately moving near or east of the Florida Peninsula and south Florida. There is high confidence in the general motion of the system moving WNW or NW for the next day or so. Interests in Hispaniola, The Bahamas, the Turks & Caicos, Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this developing system. I would suggest too that interests in the Carolinas and the entire Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. closely watch this system as there is a growing degree of confidence of potential East Coast impacts.

REST OF THE TROPICS ARE QUIET… The Gulf of Mexico and the remainder of the tropical Atlantic basin are quiet with no new tropical storms expected to develop (outside of PTC#9/Isaias). Tropical waves emerging from Africa are in a hostile, unfavorable environment for intensification over the next several days. Good news!

LESS IN THE WAY OF STORMS ON THURSDAY… Unrelated to the tropics, we’ll have isolated showers and thunderstorms around south Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday, BUT I do expect storms to be more isolated in nature meaning more of us should have sunshine throughout the day. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Thursday morning. I’ll have the latest information on PTC#9/Isaias and a look at what you can expect this weekend locally. See you then!

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7:15PM July 29, 2020

STORMS IN CLARKE & WASHINGTON COUNTIES… Heavy rain is happening along the U.S. Highway 84 corridor near Grove Hill, Whatley, Gosport, and Suggsville in Clarke County this evening. This storm is producing quite a bit of lightning near the Old Line Road. Storms are also producing heavy rain across the northern half of Washington County near Chatom, Yarbo, Jordan, and St. Stephens. These storms will move into Leroy and Jackson shortly.

Showers and storms will fade across the region over the next few hours as we lose daytime heat content in the atmopshere.

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4:38PM July 29, 2020

NEW STORMS IN WEST ALABAMA… While scattered showers continue across the eastern part of our region as the first batch of rain fades away, new storms are firing across parts of Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties this evening. Very heavy rain is happening along the U.S. Highway 45 corridor near Deer Park, Citronelle, and Gulf Crest. Storms have also popped up near Prichard, Downtown Mobile, and Jackson.

These storms will move east over the next few hours. Severe weather is not expected, but some of the storms may be loud at times with very heavy rain being possible.

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2:25PM July 29, 2020

HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE CONECUH RIVER… Loud storms producing heavy rain continue along the US29 corridor from Brewton to Andalusia. At the moment, the strongest storm is happening near Pleasant Home, Rome, and Carolina in Covington County. This storm is moving east at about 30 mph. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning will continue across much of Covington, Conecuh, and Escambia (AL) counties over the next 30-45 minutes.

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6:52AM July 29, 2020

HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY; WATCHING PTC#9/ISAIAS… If you’re tired of the seemingly endless rain we have had over the last few days, there is good news in that today is the last day of elevated rain chances for awhile. Rain chances won’t ever get to zero later this week and into the weekend, but the odds of any given spot having rain on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday will be significantly lower than today.

HEAVY RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY… Heavy rain and thunderstorms will again be likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Wednesday. The “fire hose” of Gulf moisture is set to continue with storms training from southwest to northeast today. Storms could produce very heavy rain at times, cloud-to-ground lightning, and loud thunder. Widespread severe weather is not expected today, however. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s across the region.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #9 APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES… The system formerly branded as INVEST 92L is now Potential Tropical Cyclone #9. This branding is used by the National Hurricane Center to designate a system that will almost certainly become a tropical storm. NHC issues this designation in order to be able to issue Tropical Storm Warnings. Regardless of that technicality, PTC#9 continues to organize this morning. There is a very high (90+%) chance that this system will form a low-level circulation center today or tonight and ultimately move northwest. There is high confidence in that idea. There is also high confidence in the idea of the system moving in a general northwesterly fashion regardless of how strong the system becomes or how weak it remains. See the paragraph below for a more technical discussion about how this system may evolve. Interests in south Florida, The Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos (in addition to the places already involved in a Tropical Storm Warning – outlined extensively below) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR PTC#9/ISAIAS… There is high confidence in the broad ideas concerning Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, aka Isaias-to-be, but there is VERY LOW confidence in the specifics on how this happens. We know with near certain confidence that the system will be moving to the northwest. The problem beyond that arises because we don’t yet have a low-level circulation center, thus models don’t have a firm grip of exactly where the center develops. If a given model doesn’t know the “starting point” of a tropical cyclone, all “future points” are subject to large error. Once we get a low-level center of circulation on the board, this will be the first problem in the forecast that is resolved. Second point that we just do not know yet – Will the system move directly over the Dominican Republic and Haiti (Hispaniola)? If yes, there is a high chance this system is ripped apart completely by the extremely tall, rugged terrain of the large island. There is a chance the whole system falls apart and only a weak tropical wave axis with some rain moves toward south Florida. IF, however, the system moves just north of Hispaniola (as many models are currently suggesting), that could allow the system to maintain its center and slowly acquire strength. Explosive strengthening does not seem likely because of increasing southwesterly shear as the system approaches the south part of Florida by the weekend. While most models show the system taking a turn to the north when it reaches the western Bahamas, it is still unfortunately a bit too early to completely rule out Gulf of Mexico impacts. We’re getting closer to that point but we’re certainly not there yet.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PUERTO RICO & SURROUNDING ISLANDS… Due to the approach of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Isaias, a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the following areas: Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Marteen, Dominica, and the Dominican Republic coastline from Cabo Caucedo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. We also note that a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Turks & Caicos and the southern coastline of the Dominican Republic.

LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY LATER THIS WEEK INTO WEEKEND… We finally will get a break from the higher rain chances starting on Friday when drier air will be in place across our region. Friday and Saturday will see near or below average rain chances (10-20%) with high temperatures in the low-90s. Temperatures will go back up this weekend (compared to the lower overall temperatures we’ve had this week due to all the rain around) but I don’t see any signs of excessive heat (95°+) in the forecast over the next 7-10 days.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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12:17AM July 29, 2020

RAIN NEAR THE COAST… Showers continue near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches early on this Wednesday morning. Heavier rain is happening as of 12:17AM near Navarre, Mary Esther, and Fort Walton Beach. Rain will be moving into Destin shortly.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across our region later this morning.

My next full forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM. See you then!

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9:03PM July 28, 2020

HEAVY RAIN NEAR MOBILE BAY… Scattered showers continue across inland areas, but the heaviest rain as of 9PM is happening across portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Heavy rain is happening near Bay Minette, Stapleton, Bromley, Spanish Fort, Belforest, Montrose, Daphne, Fairhope, and Point Clear.

This batch of heavy rain will move into Silverhill, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Loxley, Magnolia Springs, and Foley shortly. You may hear some thunder in these areas but severe weather is not expected.

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