6:52AM September 20, 2019

GORGEOUS WEEKEND AHEAD; LOWER HUMIDITY… Temperatures started in the mid-60s for most locales across the region this morning as dry, comfortable air continues to surge into our region from the northeast. Mostly sunny skies are expected across the region on this Friday. Nice weather is in store for high school football tonight. Sunny, warm conditions are expected on both Saturday and Sunday as well. The tropics continue to be active, but the good news is we’re not seeing any systems that will be in the Gulf of Mexico anytime in the next 5 days. Let’s look at details…

UNBELIEVABLE FLASH FLOODING IN MOBILE YESTERDAY… 90% of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida had zero rain on Thursday. That was certainly NOT the case across the Mobile, AL metro area last evening, however. Intense thunderstorms and heavy rain trained over the same areas (that happens to be the most densely populated locales in our region!) for several hours. Numerous water rescues happened because motorists were stranded on water-covered roadways. Multiple flash flood warnings were required for Mobile County. Check out the dramatic video of the flash flooding here: https://www.facebook.com/rzweather/videos/2397170520532711

HURRICANE JERRY STRENGTHENING; ANOTHER THREAT FOR BERMUDA… Hurricane Jerry continues to barrel to the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean. The system is currently passing just northeast of the northernmost of the Leeward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Martin, St. Maarten, St. Barthelemy, and Saba & St. Eustatius. Maximum sustained winds are up to 105 mph, making Jerry a category 2 hurricane. The system will likely recurve into the Atlantic by Sunday. This means that United States direct impacts from Hurricane Jerry remain very unlikely. Bermuda, however, might not be so lucky. The island commonwealth again finds itself in the middle of the cone of uncertainty where Jerry will probably move in the days ahead. This comes after Bermuda was just lashed a few days ago by the southern flank of Hurricane Humberto.

LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON HUMBERTO… The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on Hurricane Humberto, which has become extratropical south of Newfoundland, Canada over the northern Atlantic Ocean.

REMNANTS OF IMELDA PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN TEXAS… Big time rain amounts and flash flooding issues are happening across portions of eastern Texas as the decaying system that was once Tropical Storm Imelda continues to drift northward. The system should continue to decay today and ultimately fizzle out as we go into the weekend.

TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… There is a very low (10%) chance of tropical storm formation as a tropical wave currently situated south of Hispaniola continues drifting westward. Significant development of this system remains unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across Haiti and the Dominican Republic in the next day or so because of this tropical wave.

TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC EAST OF JERRY… Another tropical wave situated behind/east of Hurricane Jerry in the Atlantic Ocean is moving west toward the Lesser Antilles. NHC says this system has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 5 days as the system continues moving westward. Directly from the NHC discussion: “A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and some development is possible while it approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend. Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the wave moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.”

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR AFRICA… Our next significant chance of tropical development probably will come early next week as a tropical wave moves off of the African continent. The NHC discussion reads: “A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.”

HOT DAYS, COOLER NIGHTS AHEAD… High temperatures today, tomorrow, and Sunday will be in the upper-80s and near 90°. Overnight lows through Sunday morning will be in the mid-60s. Sunday morning looks to be the coolest morning in the next 7 days with temperatures reaching the 63-66° range in many spots, especially across inland areas of south Alabama.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… Each week, we provide a brief summary of our local college football matchups when the weather isn’t insanely active locally. See details below.

ALABAMA VS. SOUTHERN MISS… The Southern Miss Golden Eagles travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. The game is set for an 11AM kickoff on ESPN2. Partly cloudy skies are expected in Tuscaloosa on Saturday with very little to no chance of rain. Kickoff temperatures will be around 82° rising to around 88° by the end of the game.

AUBURN VS. TEXAS A&M… The Aggies of Texas A&M will host the Auburn Tigers this weekend in College Station, Texas. The game will be televised on CBS local stations and is set for a 2:30PM kickoff. We’ll call it a 20% chance of showers and storms during the daytime hours in College Station. The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of Texas this week, but I expect areas near College Station to be mostly dry by Saturday. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

TROY AT AKRON… The Akron Zips will host Troy this weekend as the Trojans travel all the way to Akron, Ohio for a 2PM game on Saturday. There is only a 10-20% chance of showers and storms in Akron during the game which is set to be broadcast on the ESPN+ streaming platform. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT UAB… There is a big intrastate football game scheduled for 2:30PM at Legion Field in Birmingham on Saturday as the South Alabama Jaguars take on UAB. Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s Saturday afternoon and evening in Birmingham. No rain is expected.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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6:56AM September 19, 2019

SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY; FEW P.M. STORMS; TRACKING T.S. JERRY… Step outside and enjoy the drier, slightly cooler air that is surging into our region from the northeast! You’ll really start to feel the effect of the drier air later tonight and certainly first thing on Friday morning as overnight lows dip into the mid-60s. It’s not going to be a cool down that lasts for long, but it is a sign of things to come in a few weeks as more “true” cold fronts start approaching our area from the north. We could have a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon that move from east to west (not a typo!) along the ‘backdoor cold front’ that is moving by our region today. Storms will be most likely to occur along and west of the Alabama River in parts of west Alabama. We also continue to track Tropical Storm Jerry and other systems in the tropics. Let’s look at details…

ISOLATED P.M. STORMS TODAY… We’ll call it a 20% chance of rain for any given spot across our region. Vast majority of us will stay dry today as cooler, drier air filters in from the northeast. Storms will be loud and proud with the potential for quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe weather is not expected, however. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s this afternoon.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST… TD10 strengthened into Tropical Storm Jerry on Wednesday morning. The system is racing northwest at 14-15 miles per hour. This means Jerry will approach the northernmost Leeward Islands on Friday during the daytime hours. Tropical storm or hurricane watches will probably be needed for the northernmost Lesser Antilles, perhaps including the Virgin Islands. Jerry will probably become a hurricane later today or tonight. The good news is Jerry is expected to recurve into the Atlantic Ocean by early next week, likely missing The Bahamas the United States to the east. While it is too early to say that with 100% confidence, model consistency in this idea has been rock solid so far. The trends are GOOD for now. We’ll keep watching.

HUMBERTO LASHED BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE; NOW ON THE WAY OUT… The core of Hurricane Humberto passed just to the north of Bermuda on Wednesday as a 120mph major hurricane. The large system brought hurricane force winds to Bermuda. Humberto continues to move northeast rapidly at 16-18 miles per hour. A large upper trough is expected to pick Humberto up and fling the system eastward rapidly. Humberto will become extratropical as we go into the weekend. No direct U.S. impacts are expected from Hurricane Humberto.

IMELDA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY IN EAST TEXAS… Tropical Depression Imelda continues to move northward across eastern Texas on this Thursday morning. Flash Flood Watches continue for much of southeast Texas and extreme southwestern parts of Louisiana this morning. The system will continue to produce heavy rain and flash flooding issues for these areas. No direct local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected from this decaying tropical system.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re watching two tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that have at least some chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next few days. The first tropical wave is about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, not far behind Tropical Storm Jerry. The National Hurricane Center says this system has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm once it reaches the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles in 3-4 days. The other tropical wave is emerging off the African continent today. NHC says this tropical wave has only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm as it moves westward in the days ahead.

COOL(ER) NIGHTS AHEAD… Overnight lows through Sunday morning will be in the mid-60s. Sunday morning looks to be the coolest morning in the next 7 days with temperatures reaching the 62-65° range in many spots, especially across inland areas of south Alabama.

PERFECT WEATHER FOR HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL… Picture perfect weather is what is in store for south Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday as we get set for another round of high school football. Kickoff temperatures will be in the low-80s at 7PM. Most locales will fall into the mid- to upper-70s by the end of each game. The chance of rain for any given spot is near zero.

SUNNY WEEKEND AHEAD… High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern for Saturday and Sunday, meaning we should have quite a bit of sunshine each day. There may be some passing cumulus clouds in the afternoon and evening hours, but most of the region will be sunny and warm with high temperatures in the upper-80s each day.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… Each week, we provide a brief summary of our local college football matchups when the weather isn’t insanely active locally. See details below.

ALABAMA VS. SOUTHERN MISS… The Southern Miss Golden Eagles travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. The game is set for an 11AM kickoff on ESPN2. Partly cloudy skies are expected in Tuscaloosa on Saturday with very little to no chance of rain. Kickoff temperatures will be around 82° rising to around 88° by the end of the game.

AUBURN VS. TEXAS A&M… The Aggies of Texas A&M will host the Auburn Tigers this weekend in College Station, Texas. The game will be televised on CBS local stations and is set for a 2:30PM kickoff. We’ll call it a 20% chance of showers and storms during the daytime hours in College Station. The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of Texas this week, but I expect areas near College Station to be mostly dry by Saturday. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

TROY AT AKRON… The Akron Zips will host Troy this weekend as the Trojans travel all the way to Akron, Ohio for a 2PM game on Saturday. There is only a 10-20% chance of showers and storms in Akron during the game which is set to be broadcast on the ESPN+ streaming platform. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT UAB… There is a big intrastate football game scheduled for 2:30PM at Legion Field in Birmingham on Saturday as the South Alabama Jaguars take on UAB. Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s Saturday afternoon and evening in Birmingham. No rain is expected.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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6:54AM September 18, 2019

TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; COOLER ON THURSDAY… Today is the last day of very hot temperatures for the next few days. High temperatures could easily hit 100 degrees this afternoon before a ‘backdoor cold front’ slides in overnight from the northeast. This will cause temperatures to drop back into the upper-80s on Thursday and Friday for afternoon highs. While the tropics are very active with FOUR distinct systems we are monitoring across the Atlantic basin, none of the systems pose any type of imminent threat to Alabama or northwest Florida. We will need to keep a close eye on the two systems far out in the Atlantic (TD10/Jerry & Karen-to-be) but for now, we are okay. Let’s look at details…

TD10/TROPICAL STORM JERRY… We’ll need to watch TD10/Jerry in the days ahead as the system moves northwest at a fairly rapid clip. The system will be near or north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend. While most of the major global models indicate the system will recurve into the open waters of the Atlantic, that idea is certainly not set in stone. That turn will have to happen in 6-7 days for the system to steer clear of the Gulf of Mexico. We’ll keep watching. The system is a long way away from any land through Thursday.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION EAST OF AFRICA… There is a strong tropical wave that is set to emerge off the African continent later today or on Thursday that has a 20-30% chance of becoming a tropical storm this weekend. Environmental conditions will likely favor development of this system into a tropical storm as it moves westward over the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean. We note that this system is still approximately 10 days out from any potential U.S. impacts, although it is unknown whether this system will impact the U.S. There is a good chance the system could recurve into the open waters of the north Atlantic as some of the global models have indicated. Something to watch in the days ahead. Nothing to worry about as of now.

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MADE LANDFALL IN TEXAS YESTERDAY… Talk about a quick-hitting system! Yesterday at approximately 10AM, the National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook upping the chances of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico. At Noon yesterday, advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression #11, which became Tropical Storm Imelda 45 minutes later. Landfall happened at 1:30PM on Tuesday near Freeport, Texas as Imelda has maximum winds of 40 mph. The system has weakened somewhat this morning, but the big issue in east Texas will continue to be heavy downpours of rain that are causing flash flooding. If you’re headed to areas near Houston in the next few days, be aware of the significant risk of flash flooding in that area due to the remnants of Imelda.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO TO MOVE NEAR BERMUDA… Hurricane Humberto is a large system that has intensified over the last 24 hours. The large hurricane is moving east-northeast at about 10 miles per hour. The system is moving away from the continental United States. No direct local impacts are expected in the U.S. due to Humberto. We note a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda as Humberto approaches from the west. The system will continue moving northeast in the days ahead and out to sea after it impacts Bermuda.

GREAT WEATHER FOR HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL THIS WEEK… Picture perfect weather is what is in store for south Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday as we get set for another round of high school football. Kickoff temperatures will be in the low-80s at 7PM. Most locales will fall into the mid- to upper-70s by the end of each game. The chance of rain for any given spot is near zero.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… Each week, we provide a brief summary of our local college football matchups when the weather isn’t insanely active locally. See details below.

ALABAMA VS. SOUTHERN MISS… The Southern Miss Golden Eagles travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. The game is set for an 11AM kickoff on ESPN2. Partly cloudy skies are expected in Tuscaloosa on Saturday with very little to no chance of rain. Kickoff temperatures will be around 82° rising to around 88° by the end of the game.

AUBURN VS. TEXAS A&M… The Aggies of Texas A&M will host the Auburn Tigers this weekend in College Station, Texas. The game will be televised on CBS local stations and is set for a 2:30PM kickoff. We’ll call it a 20% chance of showers and storms during the daytime hours in College Station. The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of Texas this week, but I expect areas near College Station to be mostly dry by Saturday. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

TROY AT AKRON… The Akron Zips will host Troy this weekend as the Trojans travel all the way to Akron, Ohio for a 2PM game on Saturday. There is only a 10-20% chance of showers and storms in Akron during the game which is set to be broadcast on the ESPN+ streaming platform. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT UAB… There is a big intrastate football game scheduled for 2:30PM at Legion Field in Birmingham on Saturday as the South Alabama Jaguars take on UAB. Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s Saturday afternoon and evening in Birmingham. No rain is expected.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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10:01PM September 17, 2019

LAST NHC ADVISORY ON IMELDA… The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Imelda, located inland over southeast Texas near Houston. The first advisory on Tropical Depression #11 was issued at Noon. The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Imelda 45 minutes later at 12:45PM. Imelda made landfall 45 minutes later at 1:30PM near Freeport, Texas. Since then, Imelda has weakened and slowly moved inland over southeast Texas. The Weather Prediction Center will pick up issuing advisories at 5AM as long as the remnants of Imelda continue to pose a heavy rain and flash flooding problem. Major rainfall of 12-14″ in total will be possible in the next 2-3 days across parts of eastern Texas near Houston.

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12:09PM September 17, 2019

TWO NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORM: ONE NEAR TEXAS, ONE IN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on two new tropical depressions on this Tuesday. The first is Tropical Depression #11 located just offshore from Texas. That system will move westward into Texas tonight or tomorrow. The system is expected to be a tropical depression or a minimal tropical storm at landfall. There is basically zero chance of the system becoming a hurricane before landfall. This will be a big rainmaker for Texas with a significant flooding risk setting up for areas near Houston. There will be no local impacts from TD11 in south Alabama or northwest Florida.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IN ATLANTIC… NHC has also started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression #10, located 1165 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression will likely become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow as it moves northwest. This will be a system to monitor closely in the days ahead as it passes near or perhaps just to the north of Puerto Rico. We note that most of the major global models show this system recurving into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean in about 6-7 days as it nears The Bahamas. We all know a lot can and will change between now and then, however. Be sure to check back with me for updates in the days ahead on this developing system.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.

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6:54AM September 17, 2019

QUITE HOT TODAY; HEAT RELIEF BY THURSDAY… Sunshine and hot temperatures are your weather headlines on this Tuesday. High temperatures will peak in the upper-90s in most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Other than a few passing cumulus clouds, rain chances remain quite low today. There may be a storm or two offshore, but I’m not expecting any rain for inland areas. We’ve got another hot day in store for Wednesday before temperatures cool off by potentially as much as 10 degrees in the afternoon hours on Thursday and on Friday! The tropics remain active, but no tropical issues are expected for Alabama or northwest Florida in the next 7 days. Let’s look at your details…

HOT WEDNESDAY; COLD FRONT MOVES BY EARLY THURSDAY… Temperatures today and on Wednesday will be well above our climatological norms for this time of year. High temperatures will be in the upper-90s with some spots potentially hitting the 100 degree mark by 3PM. The good news is a cold front will slide by early Thursday morning, paving the way for high temperatures to be in the upper-80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows on Friday and Saturday mornings will be in the mid-60s. Some spots north of US84 may be around 63-64° by Saturday morning! It’s a sign of the times as the fall season approaches.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: CLEAR & QUITE NICE… This will, no doubt, be the nicest Friday night we’ve had so far during this high school football season. Kickoff temperatures will be around 81-82° in most spots. By 9:30PM, most locales will be around 71-73°. Low humidity means it’s going to feel absolutely fantastic for the games this week. No rain issues! Clear skies are expected.

LOWER HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND… While temperatures will creep upward into the low-90s on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, humidity levels will remain reasonable as a light wind out of the northeast keeps the muggy air offshore. Some models are hinting that we could have overnight lows on Sunday morning in the low-60s (!!).

HURRICANE HUMBERTO THREATENS BERMUDA… Hurricane Humberto continues to become more organized over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane is located about 600 miles west of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph. Further strengthening is expected. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Bermuda as the large wind field of Hurricane Humberto will likely graze the island commonwealth to the north. Direct U.S. impacts from Humberto are not expected.

DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO TEXAS… The weak and unorganized tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that has been producing cloudiness and storms in the last 2 days will move into Texas today. The system has a somewhat low (30%) chance of becoming a tropical storm, per the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center. This will be a rainmaker for Texas, but not much else. No direct local impacts from this system are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.

90% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC… A tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so east of the Lesser Antilles. We note that most of the major global weather models show this system recurving into the open Atlantic and not affecting land areas. That idea has been pretty consistent in the model trends, but this is a system to watch nonetheless. From NHC: “Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with a small low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic. Satellite data also indicate that the low has become better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.”

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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7:44PM September 16, 2019

TEMPS TO DROP BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND; LOW-60s BY SATURDAY MORNING… While Tuesday and Wednesday will be QUITE hot with temperatures around 100° in the afternoon and evening hours, we finally get some heat relief as we go into the weekend. High temperatures will drop into the upper-80s across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with overnight lows in the low- to mid-60s. There is a good chance Saturday morning will be the coolest out of this brief “cool snap.” Overnight lows Saturday around 6AM could be in the 62-64° range. Let’s look at your headlines on this Monday evening…

‘BACKDOOR COLD FRONT’ MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT… This isn’t your typical cold front that sweeps down across the North American continent and cools temperatures off drastically in our area. Instead, this brief cool down will be caused by cold air progressively filtering in from our northeast. Basically, the Appalachian Mountains act as somewhat of a dam, not allowing cold air to disperse evenly from the Northeastern United States. The cold air becomes trapped on the south/east side of the mountain range and filters into Alabama and our local area from Georgia.

SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN… The biggest relief this weekend will be the lower humidity levels as dry air filters in from the northeast. Temperatures will creep back up as we get into Sunday and Monday. Nonetheless, it’s a sign that fall is near. There have been some model indications that we could have some cold fronts potentially approach our area in 2-3 weeks, although that is still an idea at this point. I’ll keep watching trends and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.

TROPICS ACTIVE, BUT NOT FOR US… Hurricane Humberto continues to move away from the United States. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Bermuda as the system approaches the island commonwealth from the west. Humberto will likely graze Bermuda to the north. We’re also watching a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles that has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm as it moves northwestward. Most major weather models point to this system recurving into the open waters of the Atlantic and not affecting land. Something to watch, but certainly nothing to worry about as of now. There also is a weak tropical disturbance near Texas that will move inland there late Tuesday or Wednesday. There is a low (20%) chance of the system becoming a tropical storm before it moves inland into Texas. Local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and set up the customized alerts you would like to get straight from me.

My next video update will be posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. See you then!

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6:52AM September 16, 2019

HOT DAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY… The number one question I get when I’m out in public these days is, “When will we get some cooler weather?!” The answer is finally in sight, albeit not for long. A cold front is poised to dive to the south later this week. Don’t mistake “cold front” for thinking this will actually be COLD air moving in – it won’t be. We’ll have overnight lows on Thursday morning, Friday morning, and Saturday morning in the mid- to upper-60s. Highs will drop back to around 90° by Friday. Vast majority will remain dry on this Monday with a few passing cumulus clouds around this afternoon. Before we get to the cool down later this week, we’ve got a few hot days on tap. We’re also monitoring several systems in the tropics that could possibly develop. Let’s talk details…

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY… Temperatures in the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday will be quite hot. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had some locales hit 100 degrees on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper-90s each day. Plenty of sunshine is expected through Wednesday.

DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO… September and October are climatologically our driest months of each calendar year. Typically, the major deviation from this is when we have a tropical system around our area. Since we don’t have any tropical trouble locally on the horizon anytime soon, it certainly seems like we will trend drier over the next 2 weeks. This trend is also reflected in the Climatological Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Outlook, showing overall dry and warm conditions that are likely to prevail.

HUMBERTO TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES… We continue to track Humberto in the southwestern Atlantic. A Hurricane Watch may be needed for Bermuda later today, as the forecast track of Humberto comes near or just to the north of the island commonwealth later this week. Direct U.S. impacts from Humberto are not expected at this time.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN GULF TO MOVE INTO TEXAS… The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a weak area of low pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico. NHC says there is a very low (10%) chance that this system will develop into a formal tropical storm. Regardless of if formal development happens, this will probably end up being a rainmaker for Texas. No direct local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected.

TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC MOVING WESTWARD… NHC says there is an 80% chance that a tropical storm will develop over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles in the next 5 days. From their discussion: “A small low pressure system is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow development is anticipated during the next day or two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.”

HURRICANE SEASON NOWHERE CLOSE TO BEING OVER… We are at the peak of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with the official climatological peak just a few days ago on September 11. While we have been majorly blessed so far with no significant tropical issues locally this year, it’s important to remember we have several more weeks when tropical storms and hurricanes could develop or move into the Gulf of Mexico and potentially threaten our area. Activity usually starts winding down toward the end of October. We all must remain diligent in monitoring the active tropics.

15 YEARS AGO TODAY – HURRICANE IVAN… The “benchmark” hurricane for many people across our area happened 15 years ago with landfall happening just west of Gulf Shores, Alabama on September 16, 2004. Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County as a category 3, major hurricane. Damage and destruction was widespread and extensive across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Inland communities like Brewton, Atmore, and Monroeville were particularly hard hit with thousands of trees being knocked down. Definitely the worst hurricane I’ve ever been through personally, and one that I’ll forever remember – 15 years ago today.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.

See all the graphics and details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a nice start to your week!

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7:58PM September 15, 2019

15 YEARS AGO TONIGHT – HURRICANE IVAN… The “benchmark” hurricane for many people across our area happened 15 years ago with landfall happening just west of Gulf Shores, Alabama on September 16, 2004. Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County as a category 3, major hurricane. Damage and destruction was widespread and extensive across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Inland communities like Brewton, Atmore, and Monroeville were particularly hard hit with thousands of trees being knocked down. Definitely the worst hurricane I’ve ever been through personally, and one that I’ll forever remember – 15 years ago tonight.

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12:43PM September 14, 2019

HOT SATURDAY… Partly cloudy skies are in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Saturday afternoon. Temperatures are already near 90° in most spots across our region. There could be a storm or two before the end of the day, but vast majority of the locales across our region will remain dry and hot.

For now, the radar display remains completely quiet.

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6:56AM September 13, 2019

PTC #9/HUMBERTO-TO-BE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST; HOT WEEKEND… Our focus this weekend will be on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, also known as what will likely become Tropical Storm Humberto. The system is located over the central Bahamas right now, but is expected to move northwest toward the Florida Peninsula over the next few days. We still have a low confidence forecast as far as where the center of this storm will ultimately go, thus it’s hard to nail down specific impacts for specific areas. What I can tell you with growing confidence this morning is the core of this system will probably remain well to the east of south Alabama and northwest Florida. There very well may be impacts/issues along the East Coast of the U.S. in the days ahead, but the chances of Gulf of Mexico impacts continue to diminish. Locally, we’ve got a hot, humid weekend upcoming with a low (20%) chance of showers and storms on Saturday and a slightly higher chance of rain (40-50%) on Sunday. Let’s look at details…

LATEST ON PTC #9 AKA WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO… The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 is located squarely in the middle of The Bahamas this morning. The system is producing heavy rain across parts of the Bahamas that were decimated just a few weeks ago by powerful Hurricane Dorian. Confidence is high that this system will remain fairly weak while over The Bahamas, which is good news. Unfortunately, rain and storms will impact the ongoing recovery efforts. The system is likely to become a formal tropical storm later today, tonight, or Saturday as it moves closer to the Florida Peninsula. There will be rain across the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula regardless of if a landfall happens. Other impacts will largely depend on the exact track of the system, which we should know more about once a low-level center of circulation forms.

LOCAL HUMBERTO IMPACTS DISCUSSION – FRIDAY MORNING… While it’s a bit too early to completely rule out any local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida, let me be quite clear in saying there is a very high chance that we won’t ever have any direct local effects from this developing tropical system. Interests in the Florida Peninsula, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should carefully follow the progress of PTC #9/Humberto-to-be in the days ahead.

40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC NEAR THE ANTILLES… There is a tropical wave about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles moving westward across the central Atlantic Ocean that has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm once it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week. Too early to speculate where this system will end up, but it’s one to watch in the days ahead. Nothing to worry about at this point, however.

Our football forecasts, including a look at tonight’s Friday Night Lights games across the region, have not changed.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida this Friday should be dry. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 80s, falling into the upper-70s by the end of the games. We’ll call it a 0-10% chance of rain across our region. Vast majority of us will be dry.

ALABAMA AT SOUTH CAROLINA… The Alabama Crimson Tide travels to Columbia this weekend to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. The game kicks off at 2:30PM CDT and can be watched on CBS local stations. Kickoff temperatures will be around 91°. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms around. Rain chances are currently pegged at 20-30% in the middle part of the day in Columbia.

AUBURN VS. KENT STATE… The Golden Flashes of Kent State travel to Auburn this Saturday to take on the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kickoff happens at 6PM CDT when temperatures will be in the upper-80s or perhaps near 90°. There is a 20-30% chance of showers across central Alabama during that timeframe. Rain chances should subside as the game continues.

TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISS… Troy will take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles with a 5PM kickoff on Saturday in Troy, Alabama. The Trojans’ game will be streamed online on the ESPN+ streaming service. There is a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening Saturday across south central Alabama. I would encourage fans to have the rain gear handy and be ready for possible lightning delays. That isn’t a certainty, but it is a possibility of something that might happen.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. MEMPHIS… The Memphis Tigers come to Mobile this weekend to play the South Alabama Jaguars. The game will be televised on ESPNU. Kickoff will be at 2:30PM CDT. There is a 30-40% chance of rain and storms in Mobile at the time of the game. Lightning delays will be possible, although not exactly likely. Kickoff temperatures will be near 90°.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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8:29PM September 12, 2019

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #9 FORMING; TRACK UNCERTAINTY; LOCAL IMPACTS TBD… Advisories were initiated earlier today on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, aka the system that was branded as INVEST 95L yesterday. Model trends have suggested since early this morning that this system is now likely to move to the east of our local area this weekend into early next week. I caution that there is still ample track/intensity uncertainty with this system since a low-level circulation center has yet to develop, thus we still need to keep an eye on this developing system locally. Interestingly, steering currents for this developing tropical system will fall apart as we go into next week, meaning we may be dealing with another “Dorian-type” scenario where we have a meandering tropical storm either onshore in the Florida Peninsula/Georgia OR perhaps just off the East Coast in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. UNLIKE Dorian, however, this will be a much weaker system most likely. Rain and storms for Florida and Georgia and potentially the Carolinas, yes. Major hurricane, highly likely NOT. Under the revised model guidance, impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would largely be mitigated. Let’s look at a few headlines this evening…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – THURSDAY EVENING… There’s good news and bad news to report this evening on this front. The good news is we probably won’t have a tropical storm or hurricane anywhere close by south Alabama or northwest Florida this weekend. The bad news is because the models changed so drastically today, we have had to lower rain chances for Sunday into Monday AND raise our high temperature forecast higher since we won’t have nearly as many clouds around. We still have model uncertainty as to where PTC #9 will ultimately go, although models have been consistent today in shifting a bit to the east. This would keep our area OUT of the impacts zone from this developing system if this scenario verifies.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS… There is now a tropical storm warning in effect for all of the northern islands in the Bahamas as this tropical disturbance or “potential tropical cyclone” is expected to develop into at tropical storm while moving over these areas. These are the same islands that were devastated by Hurricane Dorian only a few weeks ago. While the rain and gusty winds certainly won’t help recovery efforts, the good news is this system will be FAR weaker than Dorian as it passes by.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NOMENCLATURE… If I could wave a magic wand and eliminate one “weather term,” it would be ‘potential tropical cyclone.’ The term was introduced 2 years ago. The term serves basically one main purpose and that is so the National Hurricane Center can go ahead and issue proper tropical storm and/or hurricane warnings in advance of a tropical storm actually developing. The rationale and logic makes sense. The actual term they choose to slap on this type of situation, however, is another story. It has truly been a nightmare (and even confusing for meteorologists) as to explaining what a “PTC” actually is. The nomenclature is simply not good. Basically, this system remains an open trough or tropical wave that has NOT developed a low-level center of circulation. It’s not a tropical storm. It’s technically not a tropical depression yet. It probably will become one in the hours/days ahead. Practically, you can think of this as a tropical depression. That’s where we’re headed. Sorry to nerd out and rant, but we need to become easier to understand, not more difficult.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida this Friday should be dry. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 80s, falling into the upper-70s by the end of the games. We’ll call it a 0-10% chance of rain across our region. Vast majority of us will be dry.

REVISED WEEKEND FORECAST FOR LOCAL AREA… There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around on Saturday (20-30% chance) and on Sunday (40-50% chance). Rain chances have been lowered somewhat, however, since we won’t be dealing with a tropical storm most likely. High temperatures will be quite hot, in the mid-90s each day.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more details in your Friday #rzw forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM. Until then, be sure to catch my other, brief updates in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead.

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4:12PM September 12, 2019

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #9 FORMS… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, located over the central Bahamas. This system will probably become a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow as it moves to the northwest. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Bahamas, the same islands that were decimated by Hurricane Dorian only a few weeks ago. Some big model trend changes to pass along today. Let’s look at details…

LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHIFT EASTWARD… The last two runs of the ECMWF/Euro model have shifted substantially to the east. We also note the American-based GFS model now shows a tropical storm that parallels the east coast of Florida as opposed to moving into the Gulf of Mexico. We note, however, that a low-level center of circulation has NOT formed. Thus, more major forecast changes are possible in the hours ahead.

I’ll have a more detailed update about this developing tropical storm a bit later. Obviously if this newer forecast trend verifies, impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would largely be mitigated.

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