4:06PM July 22, 2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS; NO THREAT TO ALABAMA OR NW FLORIDA… What’s the phrase that is always applicable in the world of weather? “Expect the unexpected.” The system that had a 10-20% chance of developing just this morning has become Tropical Depression #3 in the western Bahamas this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35mph. The system has been classified because a low-level circulation center formed in the last few hours, meaning regardless of how weak the system remains, it is technically a tropical depression!

NO DIRECT LOCAL IMPACTS EXPECTED… This system will have basically no effect on our local weather pattern in south Alabama or northwest Florida. We will continue to have pop-up showers and thunderstorms over the next few days with slightly cooler, drier air sneaking in behind an advancing cold front on Tuesday.

FLORIDA PENINSULA IMPACTS… Impacts across the Florida Peninsula (Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Miami, surrounding areas) are expected to be minimal. Higher waves and dangerous rip currents will be possible along the shores of the Atlantic Ocean over the next few days.

TD3 FORECAST… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Tropical Depression #3 to remain weak. At the moment, NHC is calling for the system to remain a tropical depression until dissipation by Thursday as the system merges with a cold front near the North Carolina coast. Upper-level winds are unfavorable for rapid development at this time. Good news!

REST OF THE TROPICS ARE QUIET… Other than newly-formed Tropical Depression #3, the rest of the tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea are quiet. No additional tropical formation is expected over the next 2-4 days.

UPDATES IN THE APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download of the RedZone Weather app. I’ll have plenty of updates in the RZW app about this system over the next few days.

Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

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1:44PM July 22, 2019

SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION… Small showers and thunderstorms continue to pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. Heavy downpours of rain are happening near Perdue Hill, Laurel Hill, and Chunchula, Leroy, and Fruitdale.

More storms are likely to pop up over the next few hours.

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6:51AM July 22, 2019

POP-UP STORMS TODAY; A BIT COOLER BY TUESDAY EVENING… Showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up across the region today ahead of an advancing cold front that will cross our area on Tuesday. This will usher in slightly cooler, slightly drier air that will cause high temperatures to drop back into the mid-80s for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Don’t get used to the “cool summer” temperatures, however, as we return to near 90° for the upcoming weekend. The good news to report this morning is INVEST 94L, the tropical disturbance near The Bahamas, has weakened and is less likely to develop into a tropical storm over the next 2-5 days. Let’s look at your forecast details…

STORMS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON… Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop this afternoon into this evening in the core heating hours of the day. Storms are expected to remain well under severe limits. Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be a concern. Radar updates will be posted as needed today in the RedZone Weather app.

HEAT & HUMIDITY TODAY; JUST A BIT COOLER TOMORROW… High temperatures will rise to the 90 degree mark in many spots today. Overnight lows by Tuesday morning will be near 72°. Temperatures will rise into the mid- to upper-80s on Tuesday. After the round of thunderstorms on Tuesday evening, you’ll notice the air starting to feel a bit less humid and slightly cooler. It won’t be COOL by any stretch of the imagination Tuesday night or Wednesday, but it will not be the 90s we’ve had over the last several weeks. I’ve heard feedback from a lot of you that you’re quite fine with this! “Anything cooler” is a statement I’ve heard quite a bit as of late.

NUMEROUS STORMS LIKELY ON TUESDAY… Rain chances will increase on Tuesday ahead of the passage of a cold front that will move across our area from north to south. We’ll call it a 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will drop back into the upper-80s on Tuesday afternoon.

MORE POP-UP STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK… Rain chances for inland areas will likely be suppressed somewhat by the slightly cooler, drier air in place, but there still will be quite a few pop-up thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in our coastal areas. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s each day with morning lows around 70°.

INVEST 94L IS WEAKER… The National Hurricane Center has downgraded the development chances for the tropical disturbances currently over The Bahamas. The system now has only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm as it moves eastward toward the Florida Peninsula/Miami. No worries as there is a good chance that shear will continue to rip the system apart. We will keep you posted.

I’ve got all the details for you in the Monday #rzw forecast video…

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1:21AM July 21, 2019

STORMS NEAR ORANGE BEACH… Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop near the Alabama and far western Florida beaches. Heavy rain and some lightning continue to happen near Orange Beach, Perdido Key, and Josephine.

Storms will continue to bubble up near the coast over the next few hours before dawn. More widespread storms are likely on Sunday once atmospheric heat content builds up.

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11:28PM July 20, 2019

STORMS SOUTH OF GULF SHORES… Showers and thunderstorms are popping up near the Alabama beaches as the land breeze kicks in tonight. There will likely be more storms that form near or just offshore from Gulf Shores, Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Orange Beach, and Perdido Key over the next hour or so.

Storms will be possible across all of the coastal areas through dawn. More storms are likely to develop on Sunday.

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11:26AM July 20, 2019

SCATTERED DOWNPOURS OF HEAVY RAIN… Numerous downpours of heavy rain are happening across south Alabama and northwest Florida midday on this Saturday. At the moment, the storms extending from Brewton southwest to Molino are producing the heaviest rainfall. Very heavy rain is happening near Brewton, East Brewton, Keego, Pollard, Flomaton, Century, Mosquito Flats, Jay, Bluff Springs, McDavid, and Bogia. We note that light to moderate rain is happening near Pensacola, Mobile, Thomasville, Mary Esther, Perdido Key, Orange Beach, Prichard, and Saraland.

WHAT TO EXPECT – THIS AFTERNOON… More showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up over the next 6-8 hours before sunset. These storms could produce heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds. Severe weather is not expected today and the tornado risk remains at or near zero. For areas that haven’t had rain so far today, high temperatures will surge to around 90 degrees. For areas that have had rain, it looks like high temperatures will peak around 85. I’ll have radar updates in the RedZone Weather app over the next few hours as needed.

GROUND TRUTH PICS ARE HELPFUL… Thank you to everyone who has taken time over the last few days to send in exactly what you’re seeing on the ground in your location. It is helpful, especially during these pop-up thunderstorm events. You can always use the Share tab in the lower/center part of the RedZone Weather app to send in photos. You can also message me or @ me on Twitter with ground truth photos. Thanks again!

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7:05AM July 20, 2019

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely pop up this afternoon and this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We’ll call it a 70% chance of rain and storms for any given location across the region before the end of the day. Just like yesterday, there will probably be a large cluster of storms that form and linger into the evening with stratiform rain around long after the initial storms pass. High temperatures will be in the 90-92° range. This won’t be an “all day washout,” as many spots should have sunshine through at least late morning. Thanks to Kendal Payne for the view from Gantt Lake!

STORMS FADE AWAY THIS EVENING… Rain and storms will progressively fade away after sunset as we lose daytime heat content. The storms today will be pop-up storms, meaning widespread severe weather is not expected. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning.

MORE STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY & NEXT WEEK… Pop-up thunderstorms will continue to happen in the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday and in each of the next several days. I see nothing in model trends that suggest any severe weather or tropical weather issues, but there is clear evidence that pop-up storms will likely happen each afternoon. That means not everyone will have rain each day, but there will be at least some chance.

SLIGHTLY COOLER & DRIER AIR COMING… A cold front will approach the local area on Wednesday and Thursday of the upcoming week. Most cold fronts don’t make it as far south as our local area. This front will be an exception. After the passage of the front, wind direction will shift from out of the north, meaning slightly cooler, drier air will move in. High temperatures will drop back into the mid- to upper-80s with morning lows in the upper-60s by Thursday.

I’ll have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app, as needed. Have a great Saturday!

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1:48AM July 20, 2019

FEW STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST… Scattered showers and thunderstorms have fired up early on this Saturday morning near Biloxi and Gulfport in southern Mississippi. There could be a few showers and storms that pop up over the next several hours (before dawn) near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

Storms will become more numerous across the region later today.

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5:45PM July 19, 2019

EXCEL STORM CLOUDS… Storms have moved through Excel, AL and much of Monroe County, but there still are lingering creepy looking clouds. Rain will end across the county within the next hour or so. Thanks to Sara C Sinclair for her view!

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5:43PM July 19, 2019

STATE LAKE VIEW… Thanks to Doug and Allie Devine for the view from the Leon Brooks Hines Public Fishing Lake in eastern Escambia County, AL. Storms are about to move into areas near the State Lake, Bethel, and Roberts.

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