4:17PM July 3, 2022

A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO POP UP… Rain continues at this hour near Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Destin, Niceville, Crestview, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, and Perdido Key. A few thunderstorms have developed across west Alabama near Bayou La Batre, Coden, Millry, and Gilbertown.

Storms continue to drift eastward. Severe weather is not expected today, but some of the storms are producing loud thunder at times.

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8:40PM July 1, 2022

STORMS IN BALDWIN COUNTY… A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms has developed this evening across parts of Baldwin County, AL and Mobile Bay. These storms are pushing east into Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, and Bay Minette as of 8:40PM.

Gusty winds possible as this narrow band of rain and storms moves east.

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6:55PM July 1, 2022

STORMS NEAR GREENVILLE… Scattered rain and thunderstorms continue to gradually shift eastward this evening across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms are happening near Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, and Chapman in Butler County as of 6:54PM.

Other storms are happening near Celeste, Turnerville, Butler, Pennington, Aimwell, and Sweet Water. These storms will gradually fade away over the next few hours.

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10:38AM July 1, 2022

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORMS… Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 has officially formed into a named tropical storm as of 10AM CDT. Tropical Storm Bonnie will make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua or Costa Rica in Central America before crossing into the Eastern Pacific Basin this weekend.

No direct local impacts from Tropical Storm Bonnie will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida.

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6:50AM July 1, 2022

SCATTERED STORMS AROUND THIS WEEKEND… Keep tabs on the radar today and into the weekend as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely each day. Fortunately, widespread severe weather is NOT expected this weekend, although some of the thunderstorms may be strong at times with loud thunder and heavy rain being possible. Heavy rain won’t last all day in every locale across the region this weekend, but there may be multiple hours of rain in many spots. High temperatures today and on Saturday will be in the upper-80s. We continue to monitor multiple hotspots in the tropics, but fortunately, none of these systems are expected to ever directly affect south Alabama or northwest Florida.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN WESTERN GULF… Increased rain chances are ahead over the next several hours in parts of East Texas where a tropical disturbance has been “camping out” over the last few days. This tropical disturbance in situated inland at this point and further development is not expected.

PTC#2/BONNIE TO CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND… Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 has kept that designation far longer than anyone expected. The system is expected to officially become Tropical Storm Bonnie today before landfall tonight into Saturday in Nicaragua or the northern part of Costa Rica. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for the Caribbean coast of these two nations. In addition, a separate Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Pacific side of Nicaragua and Costa Rica as PTC#2/Bonnie is expected to cross Central America and remain intact while emerging into the Eastern Pacific Basin. If that happens as forecast, the system will retain the name “Bonnie” as it moves across the Eastern Pacific Ocean next week.

SEPARATE TROPICAL WAVE UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP… The tropical wave moving across the Atlantic Ocean well east of PTC#2/Bonnie is moving into an environment where further development seems rather unlikely. From NHC: “A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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6:51AM June 30, 2022

MORE RAIN & STORMS AROUND TODAY; FORECAST ON REPEAT THIS WEEKEND… Showers and thunderstorms will again be a fixture of the forecast on this Thursday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely at times today with some of the storms being loud and/or strong. The good news is significant severe weather is not expected today and there is no pronounced tornado risk. Consistent afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms are likely today, Friday, and into the weekend. High temperatures today and over the next few days will be in the upper-80s and near 90. We continue to track a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf, another disturbance in the Atlantic, and Potential Tropical Cyclone #2, aka Tropical Storm Bonnie, now in the south-central Caribbean Sea. A few more Thursday morning forecast notes are below.

WEEKEND POP-UP STORMS LIKELY… If you have outdoor plans this weekend ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Monday, consider an indoor backup. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely each day this weekend, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a real chance storms may get going fairly early near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches each day. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and low-90s this weekend with morning lows around 72.

INVEST 95L IN GULF MOVING TOWARD TEXAS COAST… The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico continues to funnel deep tropical moisture toward the Texas coast this morning. This system has a 40% chance of briefly becoming a tropical storm before making landfall along the Texas coast over the next day or so. From the National Hurricane Center (NHC): “Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days.”

PTC #2/BONNIE RAPIDLY MOVING WEST IN SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN… A Hurricane Watch has been posted for part of the coast of Nicaragua ahead of the arrival for what could be a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane tomorrow into Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone #2, aka what will likely become Tropical Storm Bonnie (if it hasn’t already by the time you’re seeing this update) continues to rapidly move west at 15-20 mph. The system will emerge over the warm waters of the southeastern Caribbean Sea before moving into Central America this weekend. This system may be one of the rare Atlantic Basin storms that survives and moves into the Eastern Pacific Basin. IF the system maintains its low-level center of circulation, the next Eastern Pacific name will not be used and the system will remain “Bonnie.” If, however, the system loses its low-level structure, the storm will take the next name of the Eastern Pacific Basin IF it redevelops into a tropical storm on the Eastern Pacific side. Regardless of any of this, no direct local impacts are expected in Alabama or northwest Florida from this system.

TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC ALSO PUSHING WESTWARD… Another, separate tropical wave (several hundred miles behind PTC #2/Bonnie-to-be) is pushing west-northwest across the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. From NHC: “A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.”

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Thursday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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12:54PM June 29, 2022

WET DAY ACROSS THE REGION… Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pop up as of 1PM. Storms near Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Deerland, Dorcas, Zimco, Coffeeville, and Red Level are producing loud thunder. More storms will pop up over the next few hours. No tornado risk today but some of the storms may produce gusty winds at times.

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11:42AM June 29, 2022

NUMEROUS SHOWERS & STORMS… Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to develop near Mobile, Pensacola, and much of southern Baldwin County as of midday. Scattered storms are also developing outside of this large complex of storms.

I expect the overall coverage of storms to increase across the region over the next several hours.

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9:39AM June 29, 2022

SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE COAST… Showers and storms continue to get an early start this morning near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Loud storms are happening near Pensacola, Gulf Shores, Point Clear, Sunny Cove, and Dauphin Island.

More storms will pop up across the region in the hours ahead.

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6:58AM June 28, 2022

P.M. STORMS TODAY; TRACKING PTC #2 IN THE ATLANTIC… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and in the days ahead as a seasonal summertime weather pattern continues across the local area. Our attention in the tropics is now on Potential Tropical Cyclone #2, soon-to-be Tropical Storm Bonnie most likely. While severe weather remains unlikely, some of these pop-up storms may be loud at times. High temperatures on this Tuesday will be in the low- to mid-90s. PTC #2 is located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. In addition, we’re tracking an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf that has a low-end chance of becoming a tropical storm before moving into Texas later this week.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #2 APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES… Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 formed yesterday evening in the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. PTC #2 has prompted a Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago and the island of Grenada. The system is moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum winds are already at 40 mph, meaning at this point we’re simply waiting on a low-level center of circulation to form so the system can officially be designated as a tropical storm. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows PTC #2/Bonnie continuing a consistent westward movement toward Central America. The system may be a hurricane on approach to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras in 4-5 days. No direct local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida from this developing system.

DISTURBANCE IN GULF REMAINS DISORGANIZED… There remains a 20% chance a new tropical storm may form in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Regardless of if formal development happens, local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected. From NHC: “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.”

LOCALLY, MORE P.M. STORMS IN DAYS AHEAD… I see no reason to modify the ongoing forecast in any considerable way. South Alabama and northwest Florida will continue to have a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe weather is NOT in the forecast anytime soon, but some of these summertime pop-up thunderstorms will be “loud and proud” at times. Gusty winds will be possible in the strongest of the storms.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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6:20PM June 27, 2022

STORMS CONTINUE TO POP UP… Loud storms have developed near Monroeville, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, and Beatrice in Monroe County as of 6:20PM. These storms are slowly drifting southwest toward Ollie, Excel, and Frisco City. Loud storms are also happening near Grove Hill, Thomasville, Coffeeville, and Woods Bluff.

Other storms are happening near Brooklyn, Magnolia Springs, and Orange Beach this evening.

Storms will fizzle out after sunset. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected this evening, but some of the storms will be “loud and proud” at times.

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6:53AM June 27, 2022

SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS… Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These pop-up thunderstorms will be capable of producing loud thunder, cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather, however, is not expected today or in the days ahead. We are transitioning back to more of a typical summertime pattern this week. Heat index values will be closer to the 100 degree mark (as opposed to near 110, like what happened last week). High temperatures will be closer to the 90 degree mark. Other than the seasonal storms popping up each day, we are keeping tabs on two tropical systems, one in the Gulf and one in the central Atlantic Ocean. A few more Monday morning forecast details are below.

LOW-END CHANCE OF BRIEF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN WESTERN GULF… An area of disturbed weather in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually move southwest in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center has flagged this area with a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm before moving onshore, potentially in Texas, later this week. Regardless of if this system becomes a named tropical storm, impacts will likely be limited to increased rain chances for parts of Texas and Louisiana. No local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.

INVEST 94L IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING WEST… There is a high chance (80%) a tropical storm will form over the next few days as a tropical wave (branded as INVEST 94L) continues moving west in the central Atlantic Ocean. Right now, this tropical wave is at a very low latitude. We note many of the global weather models show this system continuing a consistent westward movement, perhaps as far west as Central America. IF that scenario happens, no local impacts will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida regardless of if formal development happens. From NHC: “Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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8:26PM June 26, 2022

MULTIPLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES BUT NO IMMINENT LOCAL THREATS… We’re tracking two separate tropical disturbances this evening that have chances of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. One tropical disturbance is centered just to our south across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates this system has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm later this week closer to the Texas coast. Local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected, regardless of if formal development happens. In addition, a tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm as a continued westward movement happens. Early model indications point to no local impacts from that particular system either. Good news! Locally, we’re settling into a more seasonal summer pattern with a high chance of pop-up storms in each of the next 7 days. A few more Sunday evening forecast notes are below.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE BRIEF TROPICAL STORM TO FORM IN WESTERN GULF… An area of disturbed weather in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually move southwest in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center has flagged this area with a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm before moving onshore, potentially in Texas, later this week. Regardless of if this system becomes a named tropical storm, impacts will likely be limited to increased rain chances for parts of Texas and Louisiana. No local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.

INVEST 94L IN THE ATLANTIC… There is a high chance (80%) a tropical storm will form over the next few days as a tropical wave (branded as INVEST 94L) continues moving west in the central Atlantic Ocean. Right now, this tropical wave is at a very low latitude. We note many of the global weather models show this system continuing a consistent westward movement, perhaps as far west as Central America. IF that scenario happens, no local impacts will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida regardless of if formal development happens. Here is the 8PM discussion from the National Hurricane Center: “Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.”

MORE P.M. STORMS IN THE DAYS AHEAD… Locally, showers and thunderstorms will continue to be the norm across south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next 7-10 days. If your specific hometown did not have rain today, you probably will get some before the end of the week. Odds are, you’ll have multiple rounds of rain before the end of the week! Storms will be rather numerous Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. None of the next 5 days have any significant severe weather issues noted, but some of the storms may be “loud and proud” at times. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s on Monday.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Sunday evening!

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12:38PM June 24, 2022

FIRST OF THE STORMS POPPING UP… Heavy rain is happening in parts of southern Okaloosa and Walton counties this afternoon as storms pop up. Also seeing a few storms developing across parts of Monroe, southern Clarke, and Escambia (AL) counties.

More pop-up storms will develop across the region over the next few hours.

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6:52AM June 23, 2022

SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING; RAIN CHANCES RISE THIS WEEKEND… Temperatures will yet again be in the triple digit range this afternoon, but finally, we have some heat relief in sight! Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return this afternoon into this evening. Not every community will have rain before the end of the day, but some inevitably will. Storms today likely will be well under severe limits. Heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest of the storms. There is no discernible tornado risk today. Over the next few days, we will transition away from the oppressive, extreme heat values we have had this week. Instead, high temperatures will be much closer to our seasonal averages for this time of year. Most spots will be in the 90s next week each afternoon with morning lows in the low-70s. Still hot, but much more in line with our typical “hot” for this time of year. A few more Friday morning forecast notes are below.

HEAT ADVISORY TODAY – HEAT RELIEF IN SIGHT… A Heat Advisory is in effect for all local counties in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida on this Friday as heat index values are expected to be in the 105-110° range this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures will again be at or near 100° this afternoon. Fortunately, heat relief is on the way this weekend into early next week as high temperatures are projected to be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.

P.M. STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK… Scattered pop-up thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and evening hours today and in the days ahead. These storms likely will be below severe limits in nearly all cases. Heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest of the storms. I will have radar updates posted as needed today and this weekend in the RedZone Weather app.

40-50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC… A tropical wave just west of Africa in the eastern Atlantic Ocean has an increasing chance (40-50%) of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. From the National Hurricane Center: “A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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