6:50AM November 12, 2019

FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY; COLD TEMPS PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY… Temperatures have nosedived in many spots this morning now that a strong cold front has moved across our area. A cold, miserable rain continues in many spots across our region this morning. Rain will move out by midday, but cold temperatures are here to stay! Most spots won’t get out of the 40s today. Coupled with a brisk wind out of the northwest, wind chill values may not get out of the 30s. Today is slated to be one of the coldest days of 2019 with one of our coldest nights ahead. The National Weather Service continues a Freeze Warning for all of our local counties as multiple hours of temperatures below freezing are expected. Let’s look at your forecast details.

RAIN EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY… The cold rain in progress across the region will exit to our east late this morning into the early afternoon hours. We note that snow/ice/mixed precipitation is not expected with this event as the coldest air is set to invade our area later today long after the rain ends.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT… Much of Alabama and northwest Florida remains under a Freeze Warning from 6PM tonight through 9AM on Wednesday. I expect temperatures to be at or below the 32 degree mark from approximately midnight to 7AM, meaning 6-7 hours of subfreezing temperatures. While the thermometer will show values between 25-29° for overnight lows on Wednesday morning, the “feels like” wind chill temperature will likely be below 20 degrees in many spots across the region due to the ongoing northwest wind. VERY cold night ahead!

BE SURE TO CHECK ON PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES BEFORE TONIGHT… We strongly encourage everyone to check on the “4 P’s” – elderly PEOPLE that may not have good heating sources, outside PETS that may need to be brought inside, outdoor PLANTS that may need to be covered, and exposed PIPES that could burst due to multiple hours below freezing temperatures. Some folks also include the “5th p” of “practicing fire safety,” as space heater fires are common in the cold season months.

MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY… It will certainly be nice to see the sunny skies on Wednesday after a miserably cold, dreary Tuesday. Skies will likely clear out early Wednesday morning, meaning much of the daytime hours on Wednesday will likely be sunny. High temperatures will be in the low-50s.

QUITE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY… Temperatures won’t be AS cold, but they’ll still be below freezing in many spots Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Overnight lows will be around the 30 degree mark in many spots with wind chill values in the 25-28° range as the northwest wind will have dissipated somewhat.

DREARY THURSDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLE LATE… Unfortunately, clouds make a quick return Thursday morning ahead of a few rain showers becoming possible late in the day on Thursday. Rain chances will be highest across our coastal counties and especially near the immediate beach zones. High temperatures on Thursday will again be in the 50s.

SUNNY WEEKEND; MODERATING TEMPERATURES… If there is one consolation prize from the cold temperatures we’re going through now, it’s that we have a nice, sunny weekend to look forward to with temperatures that will likely rise into the 60s in the afternoon hours. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Saturday and on Sunday.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy your day!

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1:03AM November 12, 2019

RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY… If you’re awakened over the next few hours by the sound of raindrops on the roof, you’re probably not alone. Scattered showers continue across south Alabama and northwest Florida early on this Tuesday. The heaviest rain as of 1AM is happening near Fairhope, Bay Minette, Monroeville, and Thomasville.

Severe weather is not expected overnight into Tuesday as instability values remain very low to nil in most spots.

COLD AIR MOVING IN… The strong cold front is currently entering the far northwestern stretches of Clarke and Washington counties. Cold air will surge in across the region over the next few hours.

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8:14PM November 11, 2019

FREEZE WARNING ISSUED AHEAD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS; WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN FAR WEST ALABAMA… Let me be abundantly clear in saying VAST majority of us will probably not see any wintry mix or snow. There is, however, a small chance that a few locales in west Alabama (west of the Alabama River) could see a few pellets of sleet and/or freezing rain for a brief hour or two on Tuesday morning. If any sleet or ice happens, there likely will be no real impact. This is more of a curiosity than anything else. Sleet will be possible in northwestern zones of Clarke and Washington counties in addition to Choctaw and Marengo counties. This includes places near Millry, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Gilbertown, Coffeeville, Campbell, Morvin, Sweet Water, Nanafalia, Dixons Mills, Linden, and Pennington. The time for this sleet/ice to happen is from 6AM to 9AM when a warmer layer of air moves over the freezing temperatures at the surface. For most of us, this will be a RAIN event that lasts through midday Tuesday. Rain is expected to exit our area late morning as bitterly cold temperatures move in!

WHAT TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT… Rain coverage will increase overnight into Tuesday morning. We’re observing scattered small showers across inland areas of south Alabama as of 8PM. Light to moderate rain is happening near Mexia, Repton, Gainestown, Citronelle, Chatom, and Georgiana. These showers will increase in number over the next few hours. Starting around 2AM, very cold air will begin to surge into our western counties (Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, and Mobile). This cold front will be moving pretty fast and will likely reach Andalusia and Destin on the eastern side of the region by 7AM. Temperatures will remain in the 60s tonight until the cold front reaches your location. Following the passage of the front, temperatures will quickly nosedive into the 40s.

TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE YEAR… There is a high chance that temperatures “go the wrong way” on Tuesday. Our technical high temperature will happen just after midnight when most spots are in the 60s. The cold front will move by between 2AM and 7AM, bringing down temperatures into the 40s by 7AM Tuesday. Most spots will remain in the 40s all day Tuesday with a cold 5-15 mph wind out of the northwest. Wind chill values may be in the 30s all day on Tuesday, which will probably go down as one of our coldest days of 2019.

FREEZE WARNING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING… Temperatures will be below 30 degrees for several hours on Wednesday morning, probably from 1AM to 8AM. Our forecast calls for most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida to find a minimum air temperature at 6AM Wednesday between 25-29°. The wind chill during this time frame will be in the 17-21° range due to the strong northwest wind. The National Weather Service maintains much of Alabama and NW Florida, including all of our local area, under a Freeze Warning because of this potential. We note southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle (Walton County and points east) are under a Freeze Watch.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATER THIS WEEK… This will be a pronounced cold snap through Thursday. Temperatures will drop below freezing again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We warm into the 60s by Thursday with lows in the 40s this weekend. This won’t be a long duration, weeklong freeze event or anything close to that, but it IS a classic fall cold snap for the Deep South with two nights of temperatures below freezing.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

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12:22PM November 11, 2019

WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 20° WEDNESDAY MORNING… Very cold temperatures are set to arrive early Tuesday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida as a potent cold front moves across our area. The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Watch for the entire local area as subfreezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will probably be upgraded to a Freeze Warning in the hours ahead. Air temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the upper-20s, but when the strong northwest breeze is factored in, many spots across west Alabama will have wind chill values (the “feels like temperature”) in the upper-10s.

NO ACCUMULATING SNOW OR ICE IS EXPECTED… I have seen a massive amount of clickbait articles across social media discussing the potential (or really lack thereof) for snow and mixed precipitation across Alabama on Tuesday morning. Unfortunately for snow lovers locally, we just don’t have any real chance of mixed precipitation or snow on Tuesday. While there seems to be a LOW chance of a brief changeover to sleet as precipitation comes to an end across the northwest corners of Washington and Clarke counties in west Alabama (and perhaps in Marengo and Choctaw counties), impacts are currently NOT expected. The most likely scenario for west Alabama, for now, is a cold rain. That will almost certainly be the story on Tuesday morning for the rest of us to the east of the Alabama River: Cold, miserable rain with nothing in the way of snow or mixed precipitation.

VERY COLD TUESDAY… There is a high chance that temperatures “go the wrong way” on Tuesday. Our technical high temperature will happen just after midnight when most spots are in the 60s. The cold front will move by between 2AM and 8AM, bringing down temperatures into the 40s by 8AM Tuesday. Most spots will remain in the 40s all day Tuesday with a cold 5-15 mph wind out of the northwest. Wind chill values may be in the 30s all day on Tuesday, which will probably go down as one of our coldest days of 2019.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 20s WEDNESDAY MORNING… Temperatures will be below 30 degrees for several hours on Wednesday morning, probably from 1AM to 8AM. Our forecast calls for most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida to find a minimum air temperature at 6AM Wednesday between 25-29°. The wind chill during this time frame will be in the 17-21° range due to the strong northwest wind.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATER THIS WEEK… This will be a pronounced cold snap through Thursday. Temperatures will drop below freezing again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We warm into the 60s by Thursday with lows in the 40s this weekend. This won’t be a long duration, weeklong freeze event or anything close to that, but it IS a classic fall cold snap for the Deep South with two nights of temperatures below freezing.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a nice Veterans Day Monday evening!

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6:52AM November 11, 2019

RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY… Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values are ahead for Alabama and northwest Florida late Tuesday into Wednesday. Wind chill values on Wednesday morning are projected to be in the upper-10s across our region. Before we get to the major cold, we’ve got one more warm day on this Veterans Day Monday. Rain chances will increase throughout the day with most of the rain happening in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Scattered rain showers could happen as early as this afternoon, however. As of now, there is basically no chance of accumulating snow locally and a low chance of a few sleet pellets happening across parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties in a 2-3 hour window on Tuesday morning. Let’s look at your forecast details.

We honor all of the many veterans of our great nation today. Thank you for your service!

WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS… Clouds will increase in coverage over the next several hours. There could be a few showers, particularly closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures today will be in the low-70s. Sunset happens at 4:56PM. I expect showers to increase in coverage after sunset. Rain will be widespread across our region this evening into the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.

INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW; LITTLE TO NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER… There is a high chance we’ll go through the rain tonight into Tuesday with little to no thunder or lightning issues. Atmospheric instability remains very low, thus limiting the potential for thunderstorms overall with this event. While I can’t completely rule out a few lightning strikes, this will mostly be a rain event. The severe weather risk is also greatly limited by the lack of instability. It is more than reasonable to say the severe weather risk is near zero.

RAIN IN THE FORECAST; SNOW IS NOT IN THE FORECAST… The highest rain chances across our region will happen between 10PM Monday and 8AM on Tuesday. Rain will quickly kick out of our area to the east on Tuesday morning. We mentioned in the detailed forecast discussion yesterday that some of the higher-resolution model data suggested the potential for a brief changeover from rain to freezing rain or sleet. This data has remained consistent into this morning, thus I think it is reasonable to at least mention the possibility of a few sleet pellets and/or freezing rain happening across west Alabama’s Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Wilcox, and Marengo counties. There will only be a very brief window of time this happens – when the back edge of the precipitation area is moving through these areas. At this time, it seems most reasonable from 7AM to 10AM. If any sleet or freezing rain happens, it probably won’t last long at all (maybe 5-10 minutes). No impacts are expected because of this small potential at this time. For the rest of us to the south and east of west Alabama, this will be an “exclusively rain” event.

VERY COLD TUESDAY… There is a high chance that temperatures “go the wrong way” on Tuesday. Our technical high temperature will happen just after midnight when most spots are in the 60s. The cold front will move by between 2AM and 8AM, bringing down temperatures into the 40s by 8AM Tuesday. Most spots will remain in the 40s all day Tuesday with a cold 5-15 mph wind out of the northwest. Wind chill values may be in the 30s all day on Tuesday. Basically, it’s going to be quite COLD Tuesday into Wednesday!

FREEZE WARNING COMING FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING… A Freeze Watch has been issued for the local area. NWS Mobile will upgrade this to a Freeze Warning for Wednesday morning. Air temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-20s by 6AM Wednesday with wind chill values in the upper-10s and low-20s across inland areas of south Alabama. We encourage everyone to review their cold weather safety list (what we call the “4 P’s” – check on elderly PEOPLE that may not have good heating sources, outside PETS that may need to be brought inside, outdoor PLANTS that may need to be covered, and exposed PIPES that could burst due to multiple hours below freezing temperatures).

SHOWERS NEAR COAST ON THURSDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday will happen Thursday as an area of low pressure passes to our south in the central Gulf of Mexico. Coastal areas could have a few rain showers primarily during the evening hours of Thursday. Severe weather is not expected and temperatures likely won’t be low enough to support winter weather issues.

EARLY LOOK AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND… Sunny skies are likely on both Saturday and on Sunday. High temperatures will likely be in the 60s with morning lows in the low-40s. That is seasonal for mid-November and certainly a bit warmer than the very cold temperatures we’ll have in the middle part of the week.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See the graphics and details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video. Enjoy your evening!

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7:04AM November 10, 2019

NICE SUNDAY… Sunny skies are expected today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Temperatures are in the low-40s across the region this morning. High temperatures will peak around 70° by 3PM.

My next forecast video and detailed discussion will be posted by 2PM. See you then!

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6:50AM November 11, 2019

RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY… Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values are ahead for Alabama and northwest Florida late Tuesday into Wednesday. Wind chill values on Wednesday morning are projected to be in the upper-10s across our region. Before we get to the major cold, we’ve got one more warm day on this Veterans Day Monday. Rain chances will increase throughout the day with most of the rain happening in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Scattered rain showers could happen as early as this afternoon, however. As of now, there is basically no chance of accumulating snow locally and a low chance of a few sleet pellets happening across parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties in a 2-3 hour window on Tuesday morning. Let’s look at your forecast details.

We honor all of the many veterans of our great nation today. Thank you for your service!

WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS… Clouds will increase in coverage over the next several hours. There could be a few showers, particularly closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures today will be in the low-70s. Sunset happens at 4:56PM. I expect showers to increase in coverage after sunset. Rain will be widespread across our region this evening into the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.

INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW; LITTLE TO NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER… There is a high chance we’ll go through the rain tonight into Tuesday with little to no thunder or lightning issues. Atmospheric instability remains very low, thus limiting the potential for thunderstorms overall with this event. While I can’t completely rule out a few lightning strikes, this will mostly be a rain event. The severe weather risk is also greatly limited by the lack of instability. It is more than reasonable to say the severe weather risk is near zero.

RAIN IN THE FORECAST; SNOW IS NOT IN THE FORECAST… The highest rain chances across our region will happen between 10PM Monday and 8AM on Tuesday. Rain will quickly kick out of our area to the east on Tuesday morning. We mentioned in the detailed forecast discussion yesterday that some of the higher-resolution model data suggested the potential for a brief changeover from rain to freezing rain or sleet. This data has remained consistent into this morning, thus I think it is reasonable to at least mention the possibility of a few sleet pellets and/or freezing rain happening across west Alabama’s Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Wilcox, and Marengo counties. There will only be a very brief window of time this happens – when the back edge of the precipitation area is moving through these areas. At this time, it seems most reasonable from 7AM to 10AM. If any sleet or freezing rain happens, it probably won’t last long at all (maybe 5-10 minutes). No impacts are expected because of this small potential at this time. For the rest of us to the south and east of west Alabama, this will be an “exclusively rain” event.

VERY COLD TUESDAY… There is a high chance that temperatures “go the wrong way” on Tuesday. Our technical high temperature will happen just after midnight when most spots are in the 60s. The cold front will move by between 2AM and 8AM, bringing down temperatures into the 40s by 8AM Tuesday. Most spots will remain in the 40s all day Tuesday with a cold 5-15 mph wind out of the northwest. Wind chill values may be in the 30s all day on Tuesday. Basically, it’s going to be quite COLD Tuesday into Wednesday!

FREEZE WARNING COMING FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING… A Freeze Watch has been issued for the local area. NWS Mobile will upgrade this to a Freeze Warning for Wednesday morning. Air temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-20s by 6AM Wednesday with wind chill values in the upper-10s and low-20s across inland areas of south Alabama. We encourage everyone to review their cold weather safety list (what we call the “4 P’s” – check on elderly PEOPLE that may not have good heating sources, outside PETS that may need to be brought inside, outdoor PLANTS that may need to be covered, and exposed PIPES that could burst due to multiple hours below freezing temperatures).

FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday will happen Thursday as an area of low pressure passes to our south in the central Gulf of Mexico. Coastal areas could have a few rain showers primarily during the evening hours of Thursday. Severe weather is not expected and temperatures likely won’t be low enough to support winter weather issues.

EARLY LOOK AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND… Sunny skies are likely on both Saturday and on Sunday. High temperatures will likely be in the 60s with morning lows in the low-40s. That is seasonal for mid-November and certainly a bit warmer than the very cold temperatures we’ll have in the middle part of the week.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See the graphics and details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video. Enjoy your evening!

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6:52AM November 8, 2019

MUCH COOLER TODAY; MAJOR COLD AIR COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK… Cloudy skies will persist for most of the day on this Friday as cool, dry air continues to surge in from the northwest now that a cold front has passed through our region. We could have some breaks in the clouds later this afternoon. Temperatures won’t be moving much at all, with most spots staying in the upper-50s and near 60° throughout the day. After sunset, temperatures will take somewhat of a nosedive. We’re also looking ahead to our next, more significant shot of cold air that will move in early next week. Let’s look at your forecast details.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FORECAST… Grab the jackets if you’re headed to a high school football game this evening! Rain is not expected, but we will have cold temperatures in place. Most locales will be in the low-50s by the time we get to 7PM. Upper-40s are likely by the time we get to the end of each game locally.

COOLER, SUNNY WEEKEND… Saturday morning will be the coldest morning out of the next 5 days. Temperatures will start in the upper-30s, especially across inland locales of southwest Alabama. We will quickly rebound into the 60s for afternoon highs on both Saturday and Sunday. Full sunshine is expected each day.

FORECAST FOR ALABAMA VS. LSU… No changes needed in that the weather forecast for Alabama vs. LSU remains right on track: Sunny skies are expected on Saturday as the LSU Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Humidity levels will remain low as cool, dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Kickoff happens at 2:30PM CST. The game will be televised on local CBS stations. Temperatures in the middle of the afternoon at kickoff will be around 55°. By the end of the game, temperatures will be near 50° or perhaps even the upper-40s. You’ll definitely need a jacket if you’re headed to Bryant-Denny this weekend. We note that numerous media outlets are reporting that President Trump will be attending the big game and fans are encouraged to arrive early as security will be heightened. Auburn is off this week and will resume play next week versus Georgia.

RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT NO SNOW OR ICE IS EXPECTED… Our next chance of rain after the event tonight into Friday morning will happen late Monday into Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. While rain seems highly likely, snow and ice are NOT expected across Alabama or northwest Florida. There have been some wild model images from the GFS (Global Forecast System) showing this potential, but confidence remains pretty high that no snow or ice issues will happen across our region. Some of the more outlandish posts have even suggested a potential for a major ice storm. That is currently not a valid forecast idea. Not even close. If that were to change, I’ll let you know. The real story next week is going to be the much colder air!

VERY COLD AIR FOR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK… Upper-20s are likely for overnight lows as we go into Wednesday morning of the upcoming week. High temperatures will drop into the upper-40s and 50s next week. This will be the coldest air we’ve had in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida in quite some time. Several hours of subfreezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday night as well.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the graphics and details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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9:20PM November 7, 2019

STORMS NEAR ANDALUSIA… Showers and storms have calmed down across our region this evening other than a few pockets of heavy rain and storms near Loango and Andalusia in Covington County. These storms will continue to move southeast over the next hour or so.

The overall severe weather risk across the region is now very low if not zero in most spots.

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7:02PM November 7, 2019

FAKE, VIRAL POST SAYS ICE STORM COMING. THAT IS JUST PLAIN WRONG… It is one of the great problems of our time that any person can make a weather page on Facebook and make fake news go viral to the masses. Today’s edition of fake news says an ice storm is coming to Alabama. That’s just down right wrong, yet the post(s) in question have gone viral today. Rain is possible Monday into Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. Cold temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday of the upcoming week and overnight lows on Wednesday morning could easily be in the upper-20s across our region. To suggest that an ice storm will happen is not only wrong, there’s no data to support that idea at this point.

GFS TRENDS DRIER; NO ICE STORM LOCALLY… The reason all of these insane, viral posts are happening is because of 2-3 operational runs of the Global Forecast System from the last few days that incorrectly suggested the potential for ice and snow next week across the Deep South. Let’s be unequivocally clear in saying winter weather (specifically snow and ice situations) are incredibly difficult to forecast in the Deep South. The GFS model (and other weather models) regularly “pull stunts” like this that are to be completely discarded. Anyone, and I mean ANYONE, that tries to pinpoint a snow or ice accumulation 2 days out, or especially 5-6 days out, is trying to “pull a fast one” on you. That is a forecast that simply cannot be done accurately. There is no skill in trying to forecast snow amounts in the Deep South beyond 24-48 hours out at the latest. It’s next to impossible.

RELIABLE SOURCES HAVE NAMES ATTACHED… I can only imagine that every legitimate meteorologist feels the same way when I say it is incredibly frustrating to see WRONG, bad weather information go viral at the drop of a hat. What makes it worse is when the bad information is specifically for our local area. Facebook pages like “(insert city name here) Weather Center” and “X County Weather” are generally not legitimate meteorologists running the pages. How do we know this? Because the ladies and gentlemen that actually went to college and got a degree in meteorology, geography, electronic news, and associated fields aren’t afraid to put a name on their page for accountability purposes. Legitimate sources aren’t anonymous cowards hiding behind the keyboard spewing fake news to the masses! It’s wrong, it’s dangerous, and as far as I’m concerned, we should call it what it is: Fake news!

SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS HAPPENING THIS EVENING… Areas of heavy rain are happening this evening as of 7PM CST across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. At the time this update is being produced at 7PM, heavy rain is happening near Brewton, Gosport, Brooklyn, Andalusia, Milton, Pace, Robertsdale, and Bayou La Batre. Storms appear to be weaker overall than earlier this evening when there was more atmospheric instability in place. The overall risk of severe weather is now very low. Showers and storms will continue overnight into early Friday morning before cooler, drier, stable air moves in from the northwest behind the advancing cold front.

My next forecast video will be posted no later than 7:15AM on Friday. See you then. Have a great evening!

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