7:14AM February 11, 2020

FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Isolated showers will be possible across the region today ahead of our next round of potential severe weather setting up for Wednesday night into early Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains all of our local area in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk, meaning scattered strong to severe storms will be possible tomorrow evening into Thursday. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concern. As always, if we have tornado warnings, we will stream uninterrupted video coverage to bring you the very latest. Much cooler air is set to arrive on Thursday after the passage of the cold front, which is partially responsible for this severe weather setup. We finally get a break from the rain on Friday, but that break will unfortunately be short-lived. Let’s look at all the details.

SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY; FEW STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND… Showers will be possible throughout the day on this Tuesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Temperatures will be way too warm for a mid-February day. Most spots will be in the 77-80° (yes, 80 degrees!) by 2PM. Today certainly won’t be an all day washout and there will be several hours of no rain for many locations. There could be a few general thunderstorms across inland areas, but widespread severe weather is not expected today locally.

LEVEL 1 RISK TO OUR NORTH TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of central Alabama, north-central Georgia, and the Carolinas in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for today into tonight. This is mainly because a few storms may briefly become strong and produce gusty winds, although just like with the situation that happened in Washington and Clarke counties last night, a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. This low-end risk zone is in place for Birmingham, Montgomery, Prattville, Auburn, Opelika, Alexander City, Talladega, Clanton, Marion, Demopolis, Selma, Camden, Hayneville, and surrounding areas. This also includes Atlanta, Macon, and Augusta in Georgia.

FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH TODAY… Much of north-central Alabama will continue to have a considerable flash flood threat today. Hard to believe since much of our local area was dry, but some spots across north and central Alabama had 4 to 5 inches of rain in total just on Monday. If you’re traveling to anywhere near Birmingham, Huntsville, Cullman, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Anniston, Jasper, Oneonta, Clanton, Marion, or surrounding areas, be aware of this significant risk of flash flooding.

RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING… No severe weather issues are likely tonight into Wednesday morning. There could be rain at times as scattered showers continue to develop and maybe a clap of thunder or two. The severe weather issues will start late Wednesday and extend into Thursday morning.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The two most significant concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday evening into Thursday will be the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. Depending on the specific setup, there could be some hail involved as well. While the flash flooding potential locally is much lower compared to communities farther to our north, IF storms train over the same areas, we could have a few isolated areas of flash flooding as well. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings tomorrow night into Thursday. You will need something that will wake you up if you happen to go under a tornado warning.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: WEDNESDAY P.M. INTO THURSDAY MORNING… We maintain the ongoing forecast in that Wednesday evening into Thursday morning will be the time in which severe storms are most likely to happen. 6PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday is the 9 hour window when severe weather will be MOST likely to happen across our region. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings all day Wednesday and into Thursday morning just in case you happen to go under a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning.

LEVEL 2 RISK… The Level 3 risk has been removed, and vast majority of the Deep South is now included in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible. Nearly all of our local area is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, where severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Evergreen, Castleberry, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Leroy, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Milton, Pace, Jay, Berrydale, Crestview, and surrounding areas.

LOWER-END RISK TO THE SOUTHEAST… Parts of Okaloosa County, the Wiregrass region, and the Florida Panhandle region are all involved in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Storms will likely be weakening as they move southeast, thus the risk will be lower once storms reach these areas. This includes places like Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Eglin AFB, Dothan, Geneva, Daleville, Abbeville, Enterprise, Eufaula, Bonifay, Freeport, Miramar Beach, Seaside, DeFuniak Springs, and surrounding areas.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY… After the storms on Thursday morning, much cooler, drier air is set to move in behind an advancing cold front. Temperatures will actually be deceasing throughout the day on Thursday. Around 5AM, most spots will be near 70, but we will quickly fall into the 50s by mid-afternoon.

NICE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… Full sunshine is set to return on Friday as high temperatures drop to near 60 degrees. The sunshine won’t be long-lived, unfortunately, as rain will come back into the forecast late on Saturday into Sunday. The good news is much of the daytime hours on Saturday should remain dry.

NEXT VIDEO THIS EVENING… My next video will be posted by 8PM this evening. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest on this developing severe weather potential. I will also be posting radar updates throughout the day as needed today.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Tuesday!

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10:12PM February 10, 2020

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN WEST ALABAMA… The heavy rain associated with the storms that produced tornado warnings earlier has cleared out of our region and is now in Wilcox County near Oak Hill and Pine Apple. A few small showers continue across west Alabama late this evening in parts of northern Mobile, Washington, and Clarke counties.

There could be a few showers overnight but I’m not expecting any more severe weather issues locally. Rain will be possible at times on Tuesday.

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7:12AM February 10, 2020

Severe Weather Risk for Wednesday, February 12, 2020

FEW SHOWERS TODAY; SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Increasingly cloudy skies are expected on this Monday across south Alabama and northwest Florida with rain chances progressively increasing throughout the day. While severe weather is not in the forecast today, there is a chance of strong to severe storms setting up for late Wednesday into Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes much of central Alabama in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone with vast majority of our local area being involved in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk. This means that scattered instances of severe storms will be possible across our area. Temperatures are slated to be QUITE warm through Wednesday before a cold front moves through on Thursday. High temps will peak near 80° (!!) on Wednesday. Let’s look at your Monday morning forecast details.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY… Showers will progressively increase in coverage across the region today. I expect many showers to be in progress after 6PM tonight. There could be some general thunderstorms (lower than severe limits) involved locally, especially over west Alabama. The overall chance of any strong to severe storms across south Alabama and northwest Florida is very low today. High temperatures will be in the 72-75° range today.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY… SPC maintains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk today for the northwestern quadrant of Alabama. There is a low-end tornado risk and a risk of hail and gusty winds in the stronger storms there today. This includes places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Livingston, Demopolis, Greensboro, Jasper, Fayette, Vernon, Hamilton, Double Springs, and Russellville. The greater severe weather risk today will happen over northern Louisiana and central Mississippi where a Level 2 (out of 5) risk in place.

MORE RAIN AT TIMES ON TUESDAY; FEW STORMS POSSIBLE… Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday throughout the day areawide. The overall risk of severe weather on Tuesday remains very low, although there could be some cloud-to-ground lightning in the stronger storms that happen. Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will climb into the upper-70s. The air mass in place across our region starting Tuesday will be warm, moist, and increasingly unstable.

RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING… The risk of severe weather will begin most likely late in the day on Wednesday. This means that rain and some general thunderstorms may happen Wednesday morning, but the bigger issues likely won’t happen till later in the evening. There is a chance some spots may hit 80 degrees for an afternoon high on Wednesday as the air in place across our region remains warm, unstable, and increasingly supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms will become possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning across much of Alabama and northwest Florida. It appears that the greatest combination of “atmospheric ingredients” for severe weather will come together just to our northwest across parts of west-central Alabama and much of Mississippi. These are the areas where a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk are in place. Our local area is involved in the Level 2, slight risk. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible. 

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY… 3PM Wednesday afternoon to 3AM Thursday morning looks to be the timing when severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. There still are some timing differences indicated by different model scenarios, thus please check back with me tonight and again on Tuesday for updates on the timing of the severe weather potential.

LEVEL 3, ENHANCED RISK TO OUR NORTH & WEST… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone for much of west-central Alabama, central and southwest Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana. The following communities are included in Alabama: Tuscaloosa, Northport, Livingston, Geiger, Eutaw, Forkland, Carrollton, Aliceville, Reform, Gordo, Fayette, Vernon, and Hamilton.

LEVEL 2 RISK… Nearly all of our local area is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, where severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Evergreen, Castleberry, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Leroy, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Milton, Pace, Jay, Berrydale, Crestview, and surrounding areas.

FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEK… There is a considerable threat of flash flooding setting up over the next few days across the northern half of Alabama. 5 to 8 inches of rain will be possible primarily north of Interstate 20. This includes places like Birmingham, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Hamilton, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. If you’re headed to any of those areas this week, be aware of a significant threat of flash flooding and heavy rain! Much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values locally.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT VIDEO THIS EVENING… I will have your next detailed video update available by 8:15PM this evening. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest on this developing severe weather potential. I will also be posting radar updates throughout the day as needed as more rain and storms move in later today.

Have a great Monday!

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10:48PM February 9, 2020

SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA… Rain is happening this evening across parts of Sumter and Greene counties in west Alabama. South of there, our local area remains dry as of 10:48PM. I expect a few showers to happen before dawn across south Alabama, in areas primarily west of the Alabama River.

Temperatures are in the mid-50s and won’t move much at all until after sunrise.

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12:50PM February 9, 2020

Severe Storms Possible Wednesday (February 12-13, 2020)

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has added an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for this Wednesday, February 12 into early Thursday. It may feel like déjà vu considering we JUST had severe storms last Wednesday into Thursday, but this is very real. The tornado risk with this system will probably a bit higher, as SPC is already highlighting the risk of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

SEVERE WEATHER FATIGUE IS REAL… I understand that people get tired of hearing about risk levels and upcoming severe weather. “Forecast fatigue” is definitely something I consider when disseminating information. You have my word that as soon as the active weather pattern is done, we won’t bombard you with alerts and long, detailed posts. However, it is certainly not a common event (a few times per year) to have an enhanced Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place 3-4 days out. We have to stay ahead of these events as lives are on the line. The last two significant severe weather events across Alabama (January 11 and last week, February 5-6) were deadly. People in Pickens County and Marengo County have lost their lives because they were in a tornado and in a manufactured home. This is a major problem across our state and across the Deep South and we must do EVERYTHING we can to prevent these totally preventable deaths. Please do not become complacent and think you’re immune to severe weather events. I’m not, you’re not, we all are not. Please be prepared and please help me pass the word along to people that may not be as “weather aware” as you are.

LEVEL 3 RISK FOR NORTH & WEST ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY… SPC has taken the uncommon step of introducing a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk 3-4 days out from this severe weather potential. Much of north and west Alabama in addition to much of central Mississippi is included in this risk zone. Locally, northern parts of Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama are involved in this zone meaning the following communities have the highest severe weather risk for Wednesday into Thursday: Thomasville, Coffeeville, Millry, Gilbertown, Silas, Toxey, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, and surrounding areas. This Level 3 risk also includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Decatur, Hamilton, Jasper, Selma, Marion, Greensboro, Livingston, Demopolis, Cullman, Russellville, Haleyville, Oneonta, Hoover, Helena, Alabaster, Homewood, Bessemer, Leeds, Gardendale, Aliceville, Boaz, Fayette, and surrounding areas. This risk also includes Jackson (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), McComb (MS), and Starkville (MS).

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY… Other than the areas in northern Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama, the rest of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk where scattered severe storms may happen. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Greenville, Brewton, Atmore, Monroeville, Evergreen, Daphne, Fairhope, Orange Beach, Milton, Pace, Navarre, and ALL of our local area.

GORGEOUS SUNDAY… Get out and enjoy today’s weather as this will probably be the nicest day until at least Friday! High temperatures are peaking in the low-70s today with an abundance of sunshine in place. We’ll be in the 60s for much of the evening with overnight lows likely to be in the mid-50s by 6AM Monday due to increasing cloud coverage across the region.

RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY… Rain will be increasingly likely on Monday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across the region. We’ll call it a 30% chance of showers in the morning hours. There could be a few general (likely well under severe limits) thunderstorms involved Monday afternoon, especially across inland counties. While you may hear some thunder and see some lightning in addition to the intermittent rain, any severe storms that happen on Monday will probably occur over central Mississippi into north and west Alabama. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low-70s.

LEVEL 1, LOW-END RISK TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of central Mississippi and parts of north and west Alabama in their Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday. The main concern is gusty winds that could knock down a few trees, small hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. In Alabama, this risk zone includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Centreville, Fayette, Jasper, Hamilton, Russellville, Double Springs, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. Keep in mind, this is a totally different risk than the “main event” severe weather risk coming up on Wednesday into early Thursday.

RAIN & STORMS ON TUESDAY… Rain chances will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. You’ll really feel the warm, unstable air building into our region on Tuesday as high temperatures soar into the upper-70s. The air will be humid, thick, and warm. The moisture will be one “severe weather ingredient” that is plentiful with our severe weather setup Wednesday into Thursday.

5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN AHEAD FOR NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA… Flash flooding will be a concern over the next week across the northern half of Alabama as multiple areas of low pressure cause a prolonged heavy rain event. For now, it seems like the core flash flooding risk will happen along and north of U.S. Highway 80. This means that much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values. If you missed the map/post last night about this, see it here.

VIDEO LATER THIS EVENING… I’m in the process of fine tuning some of our severe weather details. I will have a special Sunday evening edition of your forecast video posted by 8PM this evening. Until then, let me know if you have any questions and again, please help me pass this along to folks that may not be as “weather aware” as you are. This could be a significant round of active weather Wednesday into Thursday.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, a few days before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a nice Sunday evening!

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7:22PM February 8, 2020

5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN AHEAD FOR NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA… Flash flooding will be a concern over the next week across the northern half of Alabama as multiple areas of low pressure cause a prolonged heavy rain event. For now, it seems like the core flash flooding risk will happen along and north of U.S. Highway 80. This means that much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… We continue to observe model guidance suggesting yet another round of strong to severe thunderstorms becoming possible late Wednesday into Thursday of the upcoming week. There still are many details to work out and quite a bit can change between now and then, however I would suggest based on trends that we need to keep an eye on midweek for another round of potentially strong to severe storms. I’ll have your full forecast details in my next video, which will be posted by 2PM on Sunday.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Saturday evening!

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7:15AM February 8, 2020

FEW SHOWERS TODAY; UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK… Light rain and sprinkles will be possible over the next few hours on this Saturday. Temperatures will peak in the mid-60s this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. I expect all of the rain to be gone by 6PM this evening ahead of slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow and mostly sunny skies. Sunday will almost certainly be the nicest day out of the next 7-10 days as numerous showers and rounds of thunderstorms will be likely starting on Monday with no real end in sight. Thanks to Ron Johnson for this sunrise view at Orange Beach sent in via the RedZone Weather app.

RAIN & STORMS AHEAD FOR UPCOMING WEEK… Our area will be in the warm sector south of a stationary frontal boundary starting on Tuesday, meaning rain chances will likely remain elevated throughout the week. There is at least a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms each day from Monday though Friday. High temperatures will be in the 70s each day with morning lows in the 50s and 60s until Friday.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… This is certainly not set in stone yet, but we are observing some model trends that would support a few strong to severe thunderstorms being possible on Thursday. The ECMWF/Euro model has a scenario that is more favorable for severe weather, while the American-based GFS continues to show a pattern that would support just rain with no severe storms. We’ll have to continue to monitor trends over the next few days, but let this serve as an early heads up that we could have yet another round of strong storms in the next 7 days! Our area is very familiar with severe weather in February and this is nothing out of the ordinary. Keep in mind the most recent two EF3 tornadoes happened in the month of February in our area. The first was the February 15, 2016 EF3 tornado that caused extensive damage in Flomaton and Century. The next was the EF3 tornado that struck Pensacola near Scenic Highway on February 23, 2016.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Saturday!

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6:54AM February 7, 2020

NICE FRIDAY; FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY… We get a break from the active weather today and into the weekend. It is quite chilly across our region on this Friday with temperatures starting in the 30s. Afternoon highs will be the upper-50s today. I expect a few light rain showers to be possible on Saturday, primarily in the morning hours. Rain and storms are set to return on Monday of the upcoming week. The good news is we are not seeing any signs of wintry precipitation or severe weather in the forecast as of this morning. Let’s look at your forecast details.

COLD, SUNNY FRIDAY; WIND OUT OF THE WEST… After a few clouds this morning, mostly sunny skies are expected today. High temperatures will be in the 54-57° range across our region. Winds will be gusty at times today with 5-10 mph sustained winds, gusting up to 20 mph at times. Wind chill values will likely remain in the 40s for much of the day.

FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY… There could be a few light areas of rain on Saturday, primarily in the morning hours. Temperatures will peak in the mid-60s on Saturday around 2PM.

SUNNY ON SUNDAY… Enjoy Sunday as it is likely to be the warmest, nicest day out of the next 7 days! High temperatures will surge to around 70 degrees with plenty of sunshine expected throughout the day.

RAIN & STORMS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK… An unsettled, warm, wet pattern is ahead for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. For now, severe weather parameters remain low, although we are seeing some indications that there may be a few strong storms around by Thursday of next week.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video.

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7:28PM February 6, 2020

WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE IN THE 20s BY DAYBREAK… After our active weather earlier today, much colder air continues to rush into our region from the northwest behind the cold front. Temperatures are in the upper-40s and near 50° as of 7:30PM. Most spots will have overnight lows in the mid-30s. There could be a few spots on the northern side of our region (Thomasville, Beatrice, Greenville, Georgiana, Hybart, Millry, Silas, Gilbertown, and surrounding areas) that may briefly dip below the freezing mark by daybreak. Nearly all of us will have wind chill values in the 20s, however, by daybreak. The graphic attached shows the projected wind chill values at 6AM on Friday.

Much better weather is ahead for Friday. Sunshine returns with high temps in the upper-50s.

Have a great evening!

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12:10PM February 6, 2020

ALL CLEAR FOR LOCAL AREA; SEVERE WEATHER RISK ENDS… Good news to report during this Noon hour. We can give all parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida an ALL CLEAR! The severe weather risk has come to an end for today. Much colder, stable air is moving in behind the advancing cold front. Rain will continue over the next few hours across our region.
 
SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES TO OUR EAST… The severe weather risk and Tornado Watch will continue for southeast Alabama near Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, and Abbeville over the next 1-2 hours. The severe weather risk also is not completely over for the Florida Panhandle region near Panama City, Marianna, Blountstown, Port St. Joe, and Apalachicola. We note a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk continues for much of Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon and this evening as well. Several tornado warnings have already happened in those states over the last few hours.
 
MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW… Clouds will linger into this evening. Most of the cloud cover will clear out tonight, giving way to a nice, cool, sunny Friday. High temperatures will be in the low-60s.
 
It has been a long few days leading up to the active weather we had today. Time to get back to normal for a bit! Have a great evening!

7:02AM February 6, 2020

SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL NOT OVER; LEVEL 3 RISK ADDED… Updated fatality/injury info added below. The risk of strong to severe storms is not over quite yet for any part of south Alabama or northwest Florida. The cold front that will sweep through our area later today and end our severe weather risk has stalled over eastern Mississippi. Until the cold front passes across our region, I cannot give anyone an “all clear” just yet. The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in a Tornado Watch valid until Noon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone valid for today to include the eastern part of our region, southeast Alabama, much of Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, South Carolina and part of North Carolina. SPC is particularly concerned about a growing risk of damaging straight line winds and a strong tornado or two in parts of southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and South Carolina. If you know someone traveling to the east today, make sure they’re aware of this heightened severe weather potential. The good news for us is our entire area should be in the all clear zone by Noon or so. Let’s look at your forecast details.

HAPPENING NOW AS OF 7AM… Numerous small showers continue to move northeast across our region as of 7AM. Some heavier rain is happening across parts of Clarke County. The storms currently situated over southeast Mississippi will move into our region over the next 1-3 hours. This line of storms is basically right along the cold front, thus once the main line of storms moves through your location, that is when you get an all clear. Supercell composite and significant tornado parameter values are elevated (STP is between 3 and 4 – anything over 1 is concerning). These two atmospheric parameters tell us that the atmosphere remains quite volatile and ready to support storm formation. Storms will also be moving through a very moist, humid air mass that is conducive for extremely heavy rainfall at times. This means that flash flooding will be a concern until rain exits the area later today.

FATALITY & INJURY DUE TO LIKELY TORNADO… We have sad news to report this morning out of Marengo County, Alabama near the Old Spring Hill community. Two manufactured homes were destroyed at the intersection of U.S. Highway 43 and Marengo County Road 54, south of Demopolis. This killed one person and injured another. NWS Birmingham will be dispatching a survey crew out to determine whether this was caused by a tornado or damaging straight line winds. Regardless, our thoughts and prayers are with the family of the person that was killed.

LEVEL 3 RISK… Technically, the eastern part of our region is included in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone. This means that numerous severe storms are likely in this Level 3 zone. While most times I would be typing details at length about this, the truth of the matter is storms are already ongoing and are simply moving into a better environment for storm formation. Regardless, we note that the following communities in Alabama and northwest Florida are in this enhanced risk zone: Brewton, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Luverne, Troy, Eufaula, Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Ozark, Geneva, Samson, Daleville, Fort Rucker, Abbeville, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Munson, Jay, Berrydale, Baker, Laurel Hill, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Navarre, Seaside, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, Marianna, Wewahitchka, Bonifay, Ponce de Leon, Freeport, Miramar Beach, and surrounding areas.

TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES TILL NOON… All of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in a Tornado Watch valid until Noon. This includes all parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Escambia (AL), Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. We note all of southeast Alabama and much of the Florida Panhandle region is also involved in this Tornado Watch. Please have a way to get the warnings and take action if a tornado warning is required for your area.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS THROUGH NOON… The main concern in the short term (now through 9AM) will be damaging straight line wind gusts in the stronger storms. Brief tornadoes will also be a concern. in addition to the elevated risk of damaging winds, the tornado risk also may edge up ever so slightly after 9AM. Keep in mind that this enhanced risk of tornadoes and damaging winds will happen when storms are moving into the eastern side of our region (and ultimately out of our area to the east). This means that Butler, Covington, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa counties will be the last counties locally “in the crosshairs” from potential tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also is an elevated risk of flash flooding. Rain will linger long after the severe weather risk ends.

RAIN TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON & EVENING HOURS… While our severe weather risk will finally come to a complete end around Noon, heavy rain may linger into the evening hours. This rain could exacerbate ongoing flash flooding issues. Rain will clear out later this evening into tonight.

NICE FRIDAY COMING UP… After the active weather pattern, we get a nice Friday and nice weekend as a consolation prize. High temperatures Friday will be in the low-60s. Clearing skies are expected in the afternoon and evening hours. There should be a good amount of sunshine in the P.M. hours of Friday.

SUNNY, MILD WEEKEND AHEAD… Sunny skies are likely for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s each day with morning lows in the 40s. This is exactly where we should be, climatologically speaking, for early February. There could be a few showers after dark on Saturday, but most spots should remain dry and rain amounts will be very low where rain does happen.

SHOWERS & STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK… Early indications point to another unsettled pattern setting up for Monday and Tuesday of the upcoming week. High temperatures will again surge into the 70s by Tuesday with a chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. We’ll watch this potential over the weekend and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.

APP… Many, MANY updates have been posted overnight and will continue to be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

Have a nice Thursday!

2:12AM February 6, 2020

WAY TOO WARM FOR A FEBRUARY NIGHT… Temperatures have actually increased over the last few hours across our region. Evergreen AND Andalusia are both reporting an air temperature of 75 degrees as of 2AM. Dewpoint temperatures at those two locations and across the region are now at 70 degrees. This means that the air is ripe and conducive for storms to flare up.

1:00AM February 6, 2020

SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH… A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for parts of Hale, Bibb, and Perry counties until 1:45AM. Storms near Moundville and Greensboro are likely producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. Hail around the size of a quarter may also be happening.

Storms currently rumbling through Tuscaloosa are loud, but currently under severe limits.

12:11AM February 6, 2020

WHAT TO EXPECT – THROUGH 4AM… Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage over the next few hours across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The greatest severe weather risk in our local area in the near term will be over parts of Washington and Clarke counties as storms approach from the west. We will also need to keep an eye on any storms that can ramp up to strong levels similar to the one currently happening in northern Covington County. That cell is currently not severe, but it is the strongest storm in our local area as of 12:11AM. Flash flooding will also be a concern as small showers and storms already seem to be training over the same areas.

I’ll have intermittent radar updates over the next few hours. If a tornado warning polygon is required for any part of our local area, we will go into live video mode until the threat passes. Please have a way to get warnings before you go to sleep!

11:36PM February 5, 2020

LOUD STORMS FIRING UP… Strong storms are starting to fire up yet again across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida as Round 2 of 3 of our severe weather threat begins. This highly isolated storm has popped up near Dixie, Elim, Alaflora, and Bradley in eastern Escambia County, AL. Heavy rain is also happening in southwest Covington County near Wing, Rome, Pleasant Home, and the Solon Dixon Forestry Center along US29.

MORE STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP… More isolated thunderstorms are likely to pop up over the next several hours. Loud thunder and cloud-to-ground lightning will be possible at times. The overall severe weather risk will likely ramp back up as we get into the early morning hours of Thursday (over the next few hours!). Please have something that will wake you up if a tornado warning becomes necessary for your location.

9:10PM February 5, 2020

JUST RAIN FOR NOW… Bands of rain continue to stream to the northeast across parts of Monroe and Covington counties on this Wednesday evening. Most spots are drying out, which is a good thing and bad thing. It’s a good thing in that flash flooding issues are not getting worse. It’s a bad thing in that rain helps to stabilize the atmosphere and without rain falling, storms may have somewhat of a better environment for development overnight into Thursday morning.

No issues are expected through midnight. I’ll have radar updates as needed throughout the night!

7:56PM February 5, 2020

TORNADO WATCH FOR WEST ALABAMA; RISK TO RAMP UP ACROSS REGION IN THE MORNING… Have a way to get urgent weather warnings tonight before you go to sleep! Storms will likely develop over our region overnight. Some of those storms could be strong or severe and produce very heavy rain on already saturated soil. Flash flooding has been an issue today and probably will get worse tomorrow with more heavy rain expected. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama through midnight. There is a pretty high chance that we will have more counties under a Tornado Watch on Thursday morning. Let’s look at a few Wednesday evening details.

LULL IN THE ACTION FOR NOW… As expected, we had round 1 of heavy rain and storms from around lunch to 6PM. Much of our area is now in somewhat of a lull in the action. More storms are expected to develop to our south, to our west, and potentially right on top of our region later this evening and on Thursday morning. Don’t be tricked into thinking the severe weather risk is over. It’s not. Once the cold front passes through your location tomorrow (Thursday) morning, THAT is when you’ll get a final severe weather “all clear.”

MORE STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING… Another round of storms will develop to our southwest and potentially over our area tonight and into Thursday morning. This round of storms will be capable of producing brief tornadoes, damaging winds, and heavy rain that will likely lead to flash flooding for certain areas. Have a way to get warnings overnight and DO something about it if your location goes under a tornado warning. Have the tornado helmets close by tonight and ready to grab if you go under a warning!

TORNADO WATCH IN WEST ALABAMA… The Storm Prediction Center continues a Tornado Watch for all parts of Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. This includes places like Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Toddtown, Fulton, Gainestown, Tallahatta Springs, Woods Bluff, Toxey, Silas, Gilbertown, Butler, Needham, St. Stephens, Chatom, Leroy, Sunflower, McIntosh, Vinegar Bend, Deer Park, Millry, Yarbo, Jordan, and surrounding areas. Several counties in Mississippi are also included in this Tornado Watch.

TORNADO WATCH TO THE NORTH TILL 10PM… Marengo, Sumter, Perry, Dallas counties and points north in Alabama are also included in a separate tornado watch valid until 10PM. This means places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Clanton, Cullman, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Huntsville, Decatur, and Tuscaloosa are all involved in a Tornado Watch valid until 10PM.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES… The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in an active Flash Flood Watch valid until 6PM Thursday evening. We’ve already had one Flash Flood Warning in northwest Florida today and I expect more to be needed if we see storms training over the same areas. An additional 3 to 4 inches of rain will be possible in some spots over the next 24 hours.

RAIN LINGERS AFTER SEVERE WEATHER RISK ENDS… Heavy rain will continue to be possible on Thursday, long after the severe weather risk comes to an end. Rain is likely into the afternoon and evening hours. All of the rain will finally shift out of our area Thursday evening. Much better weather is ahead for Friday and into the weekend.

TORNADO WARNING COVERAGE… Be sure to join us on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app if a tornado warning polygon is issued for any part of southwest Alabama or northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our coverage commitment when we have tornado warnings. We do this no matter what time of day it is, whether it’s 3PM or 3AM.

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the night in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!

2:34PM February 5, 2020

STORMS NEAR THE COAST… The circled zone in the image above is the zone where severe thunderstorms will be most likely to happen in the next 2-3 hours. The overall risk of severe storms is fairly low, but there could be a brief tornado or two in the stronger storms. We need to keep a close eye on the isolated supercell thunderstorm currently southwest of Gulfport and Biloxi. That storm will likely move into Mobile County in about an hour. Watching trends carefully.

1:34PM February 5, 2020

STRONG STORM IN NORTHERN OKALOOSA… There is an intense thunderstorm producing a large amount of cloud-to-ground lightning in the northern part of Okaloosa County near Baker, Milligan, Crestview, Blackman, Good Hope, and Hurricane Lake. This storm is moving east-northeast at 30 mph. There could be 40-50 mph wind gusts and small hail with this storm. If you’re near the Florida State Highway 189 corridor near Baker, we encourage you to pull over and wait this storm out. Next in line to see the brunt of this storm: Northern parts of Crestview, Auburn (FL), Oak Grove (FL), and Laurel Hill. If this holds together, this storm will affect Florala and Lockhart in about 30 minutes.

12:07PM February 5, 2020

HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON… Numerous thunderstorms are moving in from the Gulf of Mexico on this Wednesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring trends to see if a Tornado Watch may be needed in the hours ahead. For most spots across our region, this afternoon and this evening will be a heavy rain event. Flash flooding will become a concern later today into tonight if and when storms train over the same areas. The overall tornado risk over the next few hours is fairly low, but it is not zero. We need everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings from now until the cold front passes through on Thursday morning! This is the first round out of the 3 distinct periods over the next 24 hours when severe weather may happen.

WHAT TO EXPECT – NEXT FEW HOURS… Heavy rain is the main concern. You don’t want to be driving in this mess if you can help it. We’ve already had multiple reports from southern Baldwin County of minor flash flooding issues. There will be an increasing risk of flash flooding across southern parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties over the next few hours. Isolated, brief tornadoes are also possible in any of the stronger storms that can ramp up to severe levels. If and when we have tornado warnings, be sure to join us in live, streaming coverage on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app.

The following review info from our previous forecast discussion this morning remains on target.

HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNINGS THIS EVENING, TONIGHT, AND THURSDAY MORNING… Let’s start the details by leading with the most important piece of messaging. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings today, tonight, and into Thursday when this whole event is slated to be over when the squall line passes through. This event almost certainly will NOT be a major tornado outbreak or anything like that, but there could be a tornado or two through Thursday morning in addition to multiple areas of damaging straight line winds. Have a way to get warnings and TAKE ACTION if you get one. So many people receive the warnings these days and don’t do anything to protect themselves. Have the tornado helmets ready just in case your particular location goes under a warning.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT… The National Weather Service has opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch due to the high rain totals that are expected through Thursday evening. This Flash Flood Watch is in effect until approximately 4PM on Thursday. All parts of the following counties are included: Covington, Crenshaw, Butler, Conecuh, Monroe, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. Rain totals of 3 to 5 inches of rain are LIKELY in these counties with some isolated higher amounts being possible.

LEVEL 2 RISK CONTINUES… This has not changed from previous forecast discussions. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone where scattered severe storms may happen Wednesday into Thursday. This means scattered instances of tornadoes and damaging winds may happen across our region. Have a way to get the warnings Wednesday into Thursday. DO something about it and take action to get sheltered if your particular area goes under a tornado warning. Level 2 risk (valid for Wednesday into Thursday) as of Tuesday afternoon: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis and surrounding areas.

LULL IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING POSSIBLE… Scattered areas of heavy rain will continue into the evening and there may be somewhat of a calmer period of time between the first batch of storms and the secondary area of storms that will likely develop near the coast.

ROUND 2: SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT… Some of the higher-resolution, short-term models show strong to severe storms developing near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches tonight with those storms gradually lifting inland. This part of the event would happen from 8PM tonight to 1AM on Thursday. If you take the parameters at face value, there is some evidence to suggest this is when the overall tornado risk would be maximized. There are some potential limiting factors in this timeframe, however, like the decreasing instability from earlier hours. Regardless, the big takeaway is we could have a few tornadoes this evening into tonight under some scenarios. The “best case scenario” would be a “big ‘ole rain event” that blocks all the inflow and instability from the Gulf and keeps storms fairly weak.

RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT… The overall risk of severe storms will lessen after 1AM tonight, but it won’t completely go away until the cold front passes through our region on Thursday in the late morning and early afternoon hours. We encourage everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings before you go to sleep tonight, aka you need something that will wake you up if your particular location happens to go under a tornado warning. Intermittent heavy rain is likely throughout the night and into the early morning hours.

ROUND 3: LINE OF STORMS… Thunderstorms will make their proverbial last stand on Thursday morning as a cold front slides by our region. The concern is that storms will fire up right along the frontal boundary and potentially be on the strong side. If any storms are severe on Thursday morning, they’re more likely to feature damaging straight line winds as opposed to widespread tornadoes.

RAIN TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING… Even though the severe weather risk will end much earlier in the day, there is a high chance that rain will continue into the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon will “go the wrong way” and be declining into the evening hours. Most spots will be in the 50s after the passage of the cold front.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

11:22AM February 5, 2020

STORMS NEAR THE COAST… Very heavy rain and lots of lightning are happening in this first batch of thunderstorms moving into Baldwin and Mobile counties. While these storms are below severe limits, they are strong, producing quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning. Storms will continue to spread inland over the next few hours.

11:16AM February 5, 2020

TORNADO WATCH TO OUR WEST SOON… The Storm Prediction Center will issue a Tornado Watch soon for parts of Mississippi, Louisiana, and perhaps the far western part of Alabama. This is the zone where tornado formation will be MOST likely to happen today. SPC notes a significant tornado or two can’t be ruled out. This is basically the same area that was upgraded to a Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk a bit ago.