6:50AM September 12, 2019

HOT & DRY TODAY; TROPICAL SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT LOCAL AREA MONDAY… We continue to monitor INVEST 95L, the tropical disturbance moving northwestward over The Bahamas that has a growing chance of becoming a tropical storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 70% chance of this disturbance becoming a tropical storm as it moves northwest across the eastern Gulf toward the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Regardless of if formal development happens, we are expecting a good, soaking rain at times Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. It probably won’t be a continuous rain event for most spots, but this event is slated to provide beneficial rain for our local area. Before we get to Sunday and Monday, we’ll have two dry days (today and Friday) before scattered thunderstorms become more likely on Saturday. Let’s look at your forecast details…

LATEST INFO – INVEST 95L… The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reads, “A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.”

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – INVEST 95L… The local impacts discussion has not changed since our live video update last evening: There is high confidence that rain chances will be high both Sunday evening and Monday as this tropical disturbance or tropical storm approaches our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida from the southeast. Confidence on all other potential impacts remains low. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the strength of the system and the exact track of the center of circulation IF formal tropical development happens. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. This threat may set up farther to our east over south Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle IF the exact track of this area of low pressure is farther to our east. On the flip side, if the exact track is farther to the west, the core impact zone could be over southeast Mississippi and Louisiana. We just don’t have a firm grip of impacts until we get more insight into the future track of the system.

INVEST 94L REMAINS WEAK AND UNORGANIZED… Cloudiness and showers associated with a weak tropical wave are happening several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles over the central Atlantic Ocean. This system has been branded as INVEST 94L. NHC gives this weak tropical wave only a 10% chance of formal tropical development as it moves northwest in the days ahead. We note that most of the major weather models do NOT develop this system in the next few days.

40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC… Separate from 94L (discussed in previous paragraph), we’re also watching a tropical wave just coming off of the African coastline in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean. NHC says this tropical wave has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead. Here is their discussion: “A tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions may become more favorable for development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles from late this weekend into early next week.”

Our football forecasts have not changed that much. They’ve been lightly edited from previous days to reflect the latest information.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida this Friday should be dry. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 80s, falling into the upper-70s by the end of the games. We’ll call it a 0-10% chance of rain across our region. Vast majority of us will be dry.

ALABAMA AT SOUTH CAROLINA… The Alabama Crimson Tide travels to Columbia this weekend to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. The game kicks off at 2:30PM CDT and can be watched on CBS local stations. Kickoff temperatures will be around 91°. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms around. Rain chances are currently pegged at 20-30% in the middle part of the day in Columbia.

AUBURN VS. KENT STATE… The Golden Flashes of Kent State travel to Auburn this Saturday to take on the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kickoff happens at 6PM CDT when temperatures will be in the upper-80s or perhaps near 90°. There is a 20-30% chance of showers across central Alabama during that timeframe. Rain chances should subside as the game continues.

TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISS… Troy will take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles with a 5PM kickoff on Saturday in Troy, Alabama. The Trojans’ game will be streamed online on the ESPN+ streaming service. There is a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening Saturday across south central Alabama. I would encourage fans to have the rain gear handy and be ready for possible lightning delays. That isn’t a certainty, but it is a possibility of something that might happen.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. MEMPHIS… The Memphis Tigers come to Mobile this weekend to play the South Alabama Jaguars. The game will be televised on ESPNU. Kickoff will be at 2:30PM CDT. There is a 30-40% chance of rain and storms in Mobile at the time of the game. Lightning delays will be possible, although not exactly likely. Kickoff temperatures will be near 90°.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

Comfort Care Hospice Logo

8:12PM September 11, 2019

70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF THIS WEEKEND; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance that a tropical storm will form near The Bahamas, south Florida, or in the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. This tropical disturbance, INVEST 95L, is currently situated over the southern Bahamas just north of the eastern tip of Cuba. The disturbance will move northwest in the days ahead, setting it up on a path to likely move into or near our local area in south Alabama or northwest Florida early next week. While there is a range of scenarios as to what could ultimately happen, I am encouraged that NO major weather models currently ramp this system up to hurricane status. Regardless of formal development, this system will likely provide beneficial rain for our area on both Sunday and Monday before it lifts northward. Let’s talk details…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – INVEST 95L… There is high confidence that rain chances will be high both Sunday evening and Monday as this tropical disturbance or tropical storm approaches our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida from the southeast. Confidence on all other potential impacts remains low. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the strength of the system and the exact track of the center of circulation IF formal tropical development happens. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. This threat may set up farther to our east over south Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle IF the exact track of this area of low pressure is farther to our east. On the flip side, if the exact track is farther to the west, the core impact zone could be over southeast Mississippi and Louisiana. We just don’t have a firm grip of impacts until we get more insight into the future track of the system.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – TIMING… Rain chances will be highest from Sunday evening through Monday evening, although we note that there is a (lower) chance of scattered showers and storms on Saturday and Tuesday as well. IF impacts other than heavy rain happen, the best guidance right now suggests 8PM Sunday to 3PM Monday, although that is an estimate right now more than anything else. This impacts timeframe is HIGHLY subject to change in the days ahead. Please check back with me for the latest information in the days ahead.

95L: UNCERTAINTY, BUT HERE ARE THE SCENARIOS… While there is quite a bit of uncertainty about specifics concerning INVEST 95L, we’re trying something new today to convey this information to you. Let’s look at the high-end scenario of what would happen if the system is stronger than expected, the MOST likely scenario (mid-range of the model guidance), and the low-end scenario of what would happen if the system is weaker than expected. Thanks to everyone for the feedback on this method of uncertainty communication earlier. Let me know what you think about these scenarios.

HIGH-END SCENARIO: STRONG TROPICAL STORM… The intensity models simply do not show this system rapidly intensifying into a hurricane at this time. Good news! Instead, some of the outlier, higher intensity scenarios point to a tropical storm making landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast as a moderate tropical storm with maximum winds offshore of 50-60 mph. Under this scenario, there would be a slightly higher risk of isolated tornadoes near the immediate coastal zones NEAR and EAST of where the center of circulation makes landfall. Gusty winds would be likely at the beach zones near and east of the center. Inland impacts would largely be limited to heavy downpours of rain at times.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITH COASTAL IMPACTS… The most likely scenario of what will happen with INVEST 95L is that the system will continue to move northwest, perhaps crossing the southern part of the Florida Peninsula near Miami in a day or two then emerging over the eastern Gulf on Friday. Beyond that, the system is expected to move northwest toward the Florida Panhandle, south Alabama, and perhaps southern Mississippi and east Louisiana. Most intensity models ramp the system up to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 40-50 mph. This scenario would largely be beneficial for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida as the system would be a good rainmaker for our region. Other impacts could potentially include some coastal flooding, perhaps an isolated tornado threat depending on the strength of the system, and gusty winds at the immediate beach zones. No wind impacts inland would be expected under this forecast/scenario.

LOW-END SCENARIO: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/DISTURBANCE… There IS still a significant chance that INVEST 95L never develops into a formal tropical storm. What could happen is the system remains sheared and weak as it moves northwest toward our area. Regardless of if formal development happens, we still would need to call for higher rain chances for Sunday into Monday. This scenario would feature scattered to numerous showers and storms with breezy conditions at the immediate coastline. Other impacts, like isolated tornadoes and coastal flooding, would probably be mitigated since the system would be weaker.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… I’ll have a detailed video and text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Thursday here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Until then, you can get our updates in the RedZone Weather app tonight. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

12:16PM September 11, 2019

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING IN GULF THIS WEEKEND… The National Hurricane Center continues to increase the probability/chance that a tropical storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. There is now a 60% chance that a tropical storm will form near or just west of the Florida Peninsula this weekend as the tropical disturbance branded as INVEST 95L moves northwestward. There is high model agreement/confidence in the general idea that this tropical disturbance or tropical storm will move northwest toward northwest Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana in the days ahead. Unfortunately, we don’t know the specifics just yet. There could be impacts other than rain, like gusty winds at the coastline, isolated tornadoes, and coastal flooding, but we don’t have a firm grip of IF or WHEN these impacts will be possible just yet. Why? Largely because these impacts depend heavily on the ultimate strength of the system. There will be a chance of local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this disturbance or tropical storm. Let’s look at a few midday Wednesday notes…

UNCERTAINTY SCENARIOS BREAKDOWN… While there is quite a bit of uncertainty about specifics concerning INVEST 95L, we’re going to try something new today to convey this information to you. Let’s look at the high-end scenario of what would happen if the system is stronger than expected, the MOST likely scenario (mid-range of the model guidance), and the low-end scenario of what would happen if the system is weaker than expected. Let me know if you like this breakdown and if it is clear and easy-to-understand.

HIGH-END SCENARIO: STRONG TROPICAL STORM… The intensity models simply do not show this system rapidly intensifying into a hurricane at this time. Good news! Instead, some of the outlier, higher intensity scenarios point to a tropical storm making landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast as a moderate tropical storm with maximum winds offshore of 50-60 mph. Under this scenario, there would be a slightly higher risk of isolated tornadoes near the immediate coastal zones NEAR and EAST of where the center of circulation makes landfall. Gusty winds would be likely at the beach zones near and east of the center. Inland impacts would largely be limited to heavy downpours of rain at times.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITH COASTAL IMPACTS… The most likely scenario of what will happen with INVEST 95L is that the system will continue to move northwest, perhaps crossing the southern part of the Florida Peninsula near Miami in a day or two then emerging over the eastern Gulf on Friday. Beyond that, the system is expected to move northwest toward the Florida Panhandle, south Alabama, and perhaps southern Mississippi and east Louisiana. Most intensity models ramp the system up to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 40-50 mph. This scenario would largely be beneficial for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida as the system would be a good rainmaker for our region. Other impacts could potentially include some coastal flooding, perhaps an isolated tornado threat depending on the strength of the system, and gusty winds at the immediate beach zones. No wind impacts inland would be expected under this forecast/scenario.

LOW-END SCENARIO: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/DISTURBANCE… There IS still a significant chance that INVEST 95L never develops into a formal tropical storm. What could happen is the system remains sheared and weak as it moves northwest toward our area. Regardless of if formal development happens, we still would need to call for higher rain chances for Sunday into Monday. This scenario would feature scattered to numerous showers and storms with breezy conditions at the immediate coastline. Other impacts, like isolated tornadoes and coastal flooding, would probably be mitigated since the system would be weaker.

WEDNESDAY MIDDAY DISCUSSION – POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… This has not changed since the morning video update: There is growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We are also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more updates later today in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Wednesday afternoon!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:54AM September 11, 2019

HOT WEDNESDAY; TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… There is a growing chance that a tropical disturbance will move toward our local area on Sunday or Monday. What we don’t know just yet is whether this system will be a tropical storm by the time it makes it to our local area. That is a possibility, but there is also a chance the system remains an area of disturbed weather as it moves in from the southeast. There is a growing consensus that regardless of formal development, heavy rain will be a concern from late Saturday through Monday evening. Before we get there, we’ve got a few hot, dry days ahead. Let’s look at your forecast details…

SUNNY & HOT THROUGH FRIDAY… Plenty of sunshine is expected through Friday. There will be some intermittent periods when we could have cumulus clouds in the sky, especially in the afternoon and evening hours each day. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s with morning lows in the low-70s. Rain chances remain very low through Friday, although just like yesterday, we may see one localized pop-up storm in the afternoon hours. 0-10% chance of rain is probably the best way to describe this cahnce. Vast majority of us will stay dry.

WEDNESDAY A.M. DISCUSSION – INVEST 95L POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… There is growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

INVEST 95L: DISTURBANCE BUT NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION YET… NHC continues to suggest that ships in the area of the tropical disturbance (INVEST 95L) are reporting tropical storm force winds in the outer bands of the system. The reason this is not a tropical storm yet is because it lacks a low-level circulation center. There is broad and weak rotation as there is an upper-level low pressure area involved with the disturbance, but to officially become a tropical storm, there has to be a low-level circulation in the atmosphere. Formal development is not expected until Friday or Saturday most likely when the system emerges over the Gulf of Mexico.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN GULF… Winds high in the atmosphere at the upper-levels will likely become more favorable for the development of a tropical storm as we go into the weekend. We note that the ECMWF/Euro model, the GFS model, and the Canadian model all show the tropical disturbance continuing its current trajectory to the northwest around an area of high pressure off to the east. This makes a northern Gulf Coast landfall likely in the early part of next week. Interests in northwest Florida, south Alabama, south Mississippi, and Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this developing system. Please check back with me for updates later this week.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida this Friday should be dry. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 80s, falling into the upper-70s by the end of the games.

ALABAMA AT SOUTH CAROLINA… The Alabama Crimson Tide travels to Columbia this weekend to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. The game kicks off at 2:30PM CDT and can be watched on CBS local stations. Kickoff temperatures will be around 91°. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms around. Rain chances are currently pegged at 20-30% in the middle part of the day in Columbia.

AUBURN VS. KENT STATE… The Golden Flashes of Kent State travel to Auburn this Saturday to take on the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kickoff happens at 6PM CDT when temperatures will be in the upper-80s or perhaps near 90°. There is a 20-30% chance of showers across central Alabama during that timeframe. Rain chances should subside as the game continues.

TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISS… Troy will take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles with a 5PM kickoff on Saturday in Troy, Alabama. The Trojans’ game will be streamed online on the ESPN+ streaming service. There is a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening Saturday across south central Alabama. I would encourage fans to have the rain gear handy and be ready for possible lightning delays. That isn’t a certainty, but it is a possibility of something that might happen.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. MEMPHIS… The Memphis Tigers come to Mobile this weekend to play the South Alabama Jaguars. The game will be televised on ESPNU. Kickoff will be at 2:30PM CDT. There is a 30-40% chance of rain and storms in Mobile at the time of the game. Lightning delays will be possible, although not exactly likely. Kickoff temperatures will be near 90°.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

Pitts Dozier Logo

7:46PM September 10, 2019

40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN GULF BY SUNDAY… Confidence is increasing this evening that a tropical storm could form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday into Sunday before potentially making landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast near our local area. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has revised development chances higher to a 40% chance of tropical storm formation as of their 8PM Tuesday evening update. Regardless of if formal tropical development happens, we will need to adjust rain chances late Saturday, Sunday, into Monday to higher values. We’ll call it a 70% chance of rain and storms on Sunday. This system should be a good, soaking rain for many spots across our region regardless of formal development. Temperatures will also be a bit cooler on Sunday due to all of the clouds around. Let’s look at a few Tuesday evening details…

INVEST 95L: DISTURBANCE BUT NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION YET… NHC is reporting that ships in the area of the tropical disturbance (branded now as INVEST 95L) are reporting tropical storm force winds in the outer bands of the system. The reason this is not a tropical storm yet is because it lacks a low-level circulation center. There is broad and weak rotation as there is an upper-level low pressure area involved with the disturbance, but to officially become a tropical storm, there has to be a low-level circulation in the atmosphere. Formal development is not expected until Friday or Saturday most likely when the system emerges over the Gulf of Mexico.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN GULF… Winds high in the atmosphere at the upper-levels will likely become more favorable for the development of a tropical storm as we go into the weekend. We note that the ECMWF/Euro model, the GFS model, and the Canadian model all show the tropical disturbance continuing its current trajectory to the northwest around an area of high pressure off to the east. This makes a northern Gulf Coast landfall likely in the early part of next week. Interests in northwest Florida, south Alabama, south Mississippi, and Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this developing system. Please check back with me for updates later this week.

TUESDAY EVENING DISCUSSION – POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… There is growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

My next detailed video update will be posted on Wednesday by 7:15AM. Be sure to check with me over the next few days for the latest information on this evolving tropical disturbance. Have a nice Tuesday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

Pitts Dozier Logo

5:15PM September 10, 2019

STORMS PUSHING WESTWARD… Loud and proud thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, and Santa Rosa counties this evening. Heavy rain and quite a bit of thunder & lightning is happening near Brewton, East Brewton, Alco, Riverview, Keego, Pollard, and Appleton. Storms are moving to the west. Severe weather is not expected.

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

Brewton Mill Federal Credit Union Logo

12:12PM September 10, 2019

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND… An area of low pressure currently situated near the southeastern Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico where it could become a tropical storm this weekend. There is a growing chance that some level of local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida, regardless of if the system develops into a formal tropical storm. We still have plenty of question marks, but models have been pretty consistent over the last day or two suggesting that an area of low pressure or tropical storm will likely make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast in the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the strength of the system and the exact track of the center of circulation IF formal tropical development happens. Let’s talk details…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… It is far too early to know if hazardous conditions will happen in coastal areas of our region, but I can tell you with growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

LOW PRESSURE NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK… The tropical disturbance that will move into the Gulf of Mexico probably WON’T develop into a tropical storm until it moves just south of or over the southern Florida Peninsula and emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions over The Bahamas are currently not favorable for this system to develop, but again, the environment over the Gulf IS slightly more favorable. Heavy rainfall will happen across parts of The Bahamas and south Florida later this week as this system approaches the Gulf.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have updates on this evolving tropical disturbance in the hours and days ahead in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great Tuesday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

6:52AM September 10, 2019

MOSTLY SUNNY & HOT TUESDAY; TROPICS ARE NOT AS ACTIVE… We kick off a slew of hot, sunny days on this Tuesday. High temperatures will peak in the 94-96° range today. If you like today’s weather, don’t go anywhere as we’ll be hot and dry through Friday. Our next real chance of rain happens this weekend when showers and thunderstorms will likely pop up in the heat of the day. The chance of tropical storm formation with the two systems we’ve been monitoring in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean have dropped this morning. We’re also watching Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which continues to move farther away from the United States. Let’s look at your forecast details…

ONLY A TINY RISK OF A SHOWER OR STORM TODAY… Vast majority of us across south Alabama will be dry and hot today. There is a very small chance (0-10%) that a rogue shower or storm could pop up in the heat of the day on this Tuesday. Widespread rain and storms are not expected.

HOT & DRY THROUGH FRIDAY… Sunny skies are likely Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday across our region. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s with morning lows in the lower-70s.

SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Pulse-type thunderstorms will become possible on Saturday and on Sunday. These are the pop-up style “storms of summer” that can produce localized very heavy downpours of rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA… An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 10-20% chance this system becomes a tropical storm later this week as it moves westward. Heavy rain will likely happen across parts of The Bahamas regardless of if formal development happens. We note that most global weather models do NOT develop this system into a tropical storm.

INVEST 94L EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES… Development chances for INVEST 94L have dropped. There is a small chance that this tropical wave, currently located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, could become a tropical storm as it moves westward. NHC says there is a 20-30% chance of development over the next few days.

GABRIELLE MOVING OUT… Tropical Storm Gabrielle is in the northern stretches of the Atlantic basin, located between Bermuda and the Azores islands. Maximum winds are at 60 mph. The system is expected to weaken in the days ahead as it moves faster to the northeast toward the European continent. The system is expected to dissipate long before it gets to Europe.

See all the graphics and details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

Pitts Dozier Logo

6:54AM September 9, 2019

ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING; TROPICAL UPDATE… A few pop-up thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. It’s going to be another hot day with high temperatures peaking in the mid-90s. Heat index values will rise to above the 100 degree mark this afternoon. We’ve got quite a bit of sunshine ahead this week with little to no rain expected after today. There are a few hotspots in the tropics we are monitoring, but NO imminent threats to the Gulf of Mexico in the next 5 days. Let’s look at details…

VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY… Partly cloudy skies are likely on Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid-90s. While I can’t rule out a shower or two in total across the region, there is a very high chance that most locales will remain dry.

SUNNY & HOT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY… Sunny skies and hot temperatures are expected Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday as a large dome of high pressure takes control of our local weather pattern. High temperatures will consistently be in the mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s.

INVEST 94L MOVING WEST IN ATLANTIC… The tropical wave that we’ve been tracking over the last few days that moved off the west coast of the African continent late last week continues to move westward in the central Atlantic Ocean. The system has been designated as INVEST 94L. This system is expected to continue moving to the west over the next 3-5 days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. There is a 40-50% chance that 94L becomes a tropical storm in the next 5 days. It is far too early to speculate where the system will move IF it develops. We’ll keep you posted.

AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF PUERTO RICO… The National Hurricane Center is also keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather situated north of Puerto Rico in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This system has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical storm as it approaches the southern Bahamas in the next few days.

LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DORIAN… The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on what was Hurricane Dorian. The system became extratropical on Saturday but not before bringing hurricane-force winds to parts of Nova Scotia in Canada. Dorian is now a bad memory, and one that won’t soon leave the many residents of the northern Bahamas that were devastated by the category 5 hurricane. Parts of South Carolina and North Carolina also had quite a bit of damage.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ON THE WAY OUT… Tropical Storm Gabrielle is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph today. The center of Gabrielle is about halfway between Bermuda and the Azores islands southwest of Europe. Gabrielle is moving north at about 16 mph. A gradual curve to the northeast is expected today. The system will not affect any land areas as a tropical cyclone. Good news!

See all the details, including a graphical look at the next 7 days, in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great start to your week!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

MainStreet Family Urgent Care Logo

7:15AM September 7, 2019

HEAT ADVISORY TODAY: 110° HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY… The entire local area is under a Heat Advisory this (Saturday) afternoon and on Sunday afternoon as hot temperatures and very high heat index values are expected. While the thermometer will probably be in the upper-90s or near 100°, when the humidity is factored in, heat index values will be near 110° in many spots this afternoon. QUITE hot! Mostly sunny skies are expected today and on Sunday with a few passing cumulus clouds. Rain chances today remain near zero, but there will likely be a few storms around on Sunday in the afternoon and evening hours. We continue to watch an active Atlantic basin with four “tropical hotspots” to report this morning. Let’s look at details…

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… More forecast details, including a look at the tropics and next week, are below the college football forecasts (also below).

ALABAMA VS. NEW MEXICO STATE… Alabama will host the New Mexico State Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa in their home opener today at 3:00PM. The game will be televised on the SEC Network. The game is set to start in the peak heating hour of the day when temperatures will be around 97°. Couple the humidity with that and you get a heat index value of 104-107°. Full sunshine is expected with no rain issues in Tuscaloosa today.

AUBURN VS. TULANE… The Auburn Tigers will host the Tulane Green Wave at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn today. The game kicks off at 6:30PM on ESPN2. Temperatures at 6:30 should be in the 89-92° range. Mostly sunny skies are expected. Rain chances remain very low (0-10% chance range) for now.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. JACKSON STATE… The South Alabama Jaguars kick off at 6PM this evening in Mobile. Full sunshine and clear skies are expected for the game with temperatures starting out near 90°. No rain issues, but it’s going to be quite hot! The game can be watched online on the ESPN+ streaming service.

TROY IS OFF THIS WEEK… The Troy Trojans are not playing football this weekend. The next Troy game is against Southern Miss on Saturday, September 14 in Troy. The forecast for Troy for this weekend features lots of sunshine with high temperatures in the upper-90s.

FEW STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING… There will be so much heat content in the atmosphere on Sunday locally that a few showers and storms will likely bubble up. We’ll call it a 20-30% chance of rain for now. Storms will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe weather is not expected. Keep in mind, a heat advisory will be in place on Sunday. Air temperatures will peak near 100° with heat index values near 110° in the peak heating hours.

P.M. STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances will rise into the 40-50% range. These will be the pulse thunderstorms that are very common around here in the summer months. Severe weather is not expected. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper-90s.

HOT WEEK AHEAD WITH SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES… One of the questions I’m getting a lot these days is, “When will we get our first cold front?” The answer is probably no time in the immediate future. I see nothing that suggests colder air is on the way, unfortunately. Temperatures will remain above our climatological norms for this time of year this week. High temperatures are slated to be in the mid- to upper-90s with morning lows around 72°. Plenty of sunshine is expected with the occasional pop-up storms in the afternoon and evening hours this week.

HURRICANE DORIAN TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY… Hurricane Dorian made a brief landfall early Friday morning near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Dorian is now a weakening category 1 hurricane that is preparing to transition to a powerful extratropical storm in about 24 hours. Rare hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of Nova Scotia in Canada with hurricane watches up for Prince Edward Island and parts of Newfoundland. Hurricanes in the maritime provinces of Canada are not unprecedented, but they are fairly rare. The good news is there will be no more significant Dorian impacts for the United States. The last advisory on this vicious storm is finally in sight!

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WELL AWAY FROM LAND… Tropical Storm Gabrielle weakened yesterday before strengthening last evening. Maximum sustained winds in Gabrielle are at 60 mph. The system is expected to become a hurricane in the days ahead. No land impacts are expected from Gabrielle, however. The storm will likely recurve to the northeast in a few days. If we have to have a tropical storm, these are the ones we like: NO land impacts!

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF ANTILLES… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a very low chance (10%) of a weak tropical wave becoming a tropical storm as it moves northwest toward the Lesser Antilles in the next 5 days. The latest model runs do NOT develop this system into a tropical storm. Odds remain low, as of now, that this system is able to develop because of high amounts of atmospheric shear in the area. Good news!

TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM… NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands this morning. This is a more vigorous tropical wave that has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead as it moves westward. Nothing to worry about for now, but we will need to keep an eye on this system in the next week or so as it makes its trek across the Atlantic Ocean. Some models ramp it up to hurricane intensity in about a week, while many others show no development. It’s too early to know any details. I’ll keep you posted.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have updates in the RedZone Weather app today as needed. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great weekend!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

Brewton Mill Federal Credit Union Logo

6:52AM September 6, 2019

VERY HOT EARLY SEPTEMBER WEEKEND; GOODBYE & GOOD RIDDANCE DORIAN… Temperatures will peak around 100 degrees this afternoon under full sunshine today as the strong grip of summer continues into the weekend. The hot temperatures and high heat index values will be our lead local weather story as our dry, quiet pattern continues this weekend. We finally say goodbye to Hurricane Dorian later today as the core of the system clears out of North Carolina to the northeast. Dorian continues to bring hurricane force winds to parts of the Carolina coast this morning. We also are keeping an eye on several tropical hotspots in the Atlantic Ocean that have some chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. Let’s talk details…

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL TONIGHT… Other than the oppressive heat and humidity, this evening looks nice. Sunny skies are expected at 7PM across the local area as many high school football teams get set for kickoff. I expect temperatures at 7PM Friday to be in the mid-80s. Temperatures will fall to around 80° by 9:30PM when many of the games are ending. No rain is expected.

QUITE HOT THIS WEEKEND… Heat index values will be over 100° in many locales during the afternoon and evening hours this weekend. Why so much heat? A big ridge of high pressure is in control of our weather pattern, keeping rain away (for now) and keeping us sunny and dry. High temperatures, aka what we see on the thermometer, will be near the 100 degree mark. Factor in the humidity levels and you get a heat index that will be in the 105-110 degree range. Pack the sunscreen and stay hydrated if you’ve got to be outside for a long time this weekend!

NEXT RAIN CHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK… Our next rain chance technically happens on Sunday afternoon when isolated showers and thunderstorms may bubble up in the heat of the day. I think the influence of the large dome of high pressure will be enough to keep much of the rain/storm action to a minimum, however. Scattered storms will return to our forecast early next week, primarily happening in the afternoon and evening hours.

HURRICANE DORIAN TO AFFECT NOVA SCOTIA TOMORROW… The wind field of Hurricane Dorian continues to grow larger, even though the maximum winds in the core of the storm continue to decrease. Hurricane Warnings continue this morning for parts of the North Carolina coastline as isolated tornadoes, heavy rain, flooding, and high winds continue to happen. The good news is Dorian is about to exit the United States to the east. Unfortunately for the folks in Nova Scotia in Canada, Dorian will either be a category 1 hurricane or a powerful extratropical storm when it moves ashore there this weekend.

WILL THE NAME DORIAN BE RETIRED? LIKELY YES… A few people have asked me if the name “Dorian” will be retired from the hurricane naming lists. The answer is a resounding, “Very likely, YES.” We won’t know for sure until April 2020 when the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has their annual meeting. That is the group responsible for maintaining the naming lists across the world. Due to the high loss of life and catastrophic damage in The Bahamas and some damage and casualties in the United States, there is a very high chance “Dorian” will never be used again for a hurricane name.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS…

ALABAMA VS. NEW MEXICO STATE… Alabama will host the New Mexico State Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa in their home opener game this Saturday at 3:00PM. The game will be televised on the SEC Network. The game is set to start in the peak heating hour of the day when temperatures will be around 96°. Couple the humidity with that and you get a heat index value of 101-103°. Full sunshine is expected with no rain issues in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

AUBURN VS. TULANE… The Auburn Tigers will host the Tulane Green Wave at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn on Saturday. The game kicks off at 6:30PM on ESPN2. Temperatures at 6:30 should be in the 89-92° range. Mostly sunny skies are expected. Rain chances remain very low (0-10% chance range) for now.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. JACKSON STATE… The South Alabama Jaguars kick off at 6PM on Saturday in Mobile. Full sunshine and clear skies are expected for the game with temperatures starting out near 90°. No rain issues, but it’s going to be quite hot! The game can be watched online on the ESPN+ streaming service.

TROY IS OFF THIS WEEK… The Troy Trojans are not playing football this weekend. The next Troy game is against Southern Miss on Saturday, September 14 in Troy. The forecast for Troy for this weekend features lots of sunshine with high temperatures in the upper-90s.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a wonderful weekend. Stay cool!!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

United Bank Logo

7:06AM September 5, 2019

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100° TODAY; DORIAN LASHING CAROLINAS… High temperatures could easily top the 100 degree mark today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The map attached is the projected heat index values at 2PM today when temperatures will be near or at their peak. Sunshine is likely all day and no rain is expected. We’ve got a slew of hot, dry days ahead with temperatures near 100 in the afternoon hours! Hurricane Dorian continues to lash the South Carolina and North Carolina coastal areas this morning with high winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes. Let’s look at your forecast details…

HURRICANE DORIAN TO MOVE AWAY FROM AMERICA TOMORROW… Hurricane Warnings continue for all of the North Carolina coastline and nearly all of the South Carolina coastline as the core of Hurricane Dorian pushes north-northeast. Dorian again strengthened into a major hurricane last evening with maximum winds of 115 mph. The impacts from Hurricane Dorian in South Carolina and North Carolina will continue to be felt today and into Friday. We will *finally* be able to say goodbye to Dorian late in the day on Friday as the core of the hurricane lifts away from the United States. The system is forecast to yet again make landfall, this time in Nova Scotia in Canada, on Saturday evening likely as a large, weakening hurricane.

FERNAND DISSIPATES; LAST ADVISORY ISSUED… The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on Tropical Depression Fernand. The system dissipated last evening over the high terrain of northeastern Mexico.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE… Squarely in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and Africa, you’ll find Tropical Storm Gabrielle. The system is moving northwest at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph. Gabrielle is expected to move northwest and stay out at sea. No issues for the United States are expected because of Gabrielle. The system should completely dissipate in about a week over the far northern Atlantic Ocean.

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM N.W. OF BERMUDA… The area of low pressure we’ve been tracking near Bermuda has passed the island commonwealth to the north at this point. There is a 60% chance that a tropical storm will form in this area in the days ahead. The system will not directly affect land in the next few days. No U.S. impacts from this, regardless of formal development.

TROPICAL WAVE EMERGES INTO ATLANTIC FROM AFRICA… There is also a 40-50% chance that a tropical wave emerging from the African continent will develop into a tropical storm this weekend as it passes near or south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This will be a system we need to focus on more closely as we are in the peak of hurricane season. Any lower latitude systems like this warrant watching, as there is no way to know where they will ultimately end up. Nothing to worry about at all, but something to keep our eyes on. I’ll keep you posted.

HOT WEEKEND UPCOMING… Sunny skies and hot temperatures are likely on Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will again be around the 100 degree mark with heat index values at or above 105° in some spots across our region. No rain is expected on Friday or Saturday.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… Other than the oppressive heat and humidity, Friday looks nice. Sunny skies are expected at 7PM across the local area as many high school football teams get set for kickoff. I expect temperatures at 7PM Friday to be in the mid-80s. Temperatures will fall to around 80° by 9:30PM when many of the games are ending. No rain is expected.

ALABAMA VS. NEW MEXICO STATE… Alabama will host the New Mexico State Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa in their home opener game this Saturday at 3:00PM. The game will be televised on the SEC Network. The game is set to start in the peak heating hour of the day when temperatures will be around 96°. Couple the humidity with that and you get a heat index value of 101-103°. Full sunshine is expected with no rain issues in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

AUBURN VS. TULANE… The Auburn Tigers will host the Tulane Green Wave at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn on Saturday. The game kicks off at 6:30PM on ESPN2. Temperatures at 6:30 should be in the 89-92° range. Mostly sunny skies are expected. Rain chances remain very low (0-10% chance range) for now.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. JACKSON STATE… The South Alabama Jaguars kick off at 6PM on Saturday in Mobile. Full sunshine and clear skies are expected for the game with temperatures starting out near 90°. No rain issues, but it’s going to be quite hot! The game can be watched online on the ESPN+ streaming service.

TROY IS OFF THIS WEEK… The Troy Trojans are not playing football this weekend. The next Troy game is against Southern Miss on Saturday, September 14 in Troy. The forecast for Troy for this weekend features lots of sunshine with high temperatures in the upper-90s.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

My next video update will be posted later today. We will (very thankfully!) return to our normal morning video schedule on Friday after being on a slightly different, more busy schedule due to Hurricane Dorian over the last week.

Have a great Thursday!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

Crowne Healthcare Logo

8:08PM September 4, 2019

DORIAN A BIT MORE ORGANIZED TONIGHT; DETAILED TROPICAL UPDATE… Hurricane Dorian has increased in organization this evening. The large eye is centered about 130 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina. Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 70 miles from the center with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 200 miles. Hurricane warnings continue for ALL of the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline this evening. Conditions will deteriorate in coastal areas of the Carolinas in the hours ahead with hazards including hurricane force winds, storm surge, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, and tornadoes. The good news is Dorian is moving north at 8 mph. Forward speed is expected to increase in the days ahead. Hurricane Dorian will never directly affect south Alabama or northwest Florida. Some of the other systems in the tropics…

FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO; NOW A DEPRESSION… Tropical Storm Fernand made landfall earlier today in the northeastern part of Mexico about 100 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. Fernand has weakened to tropical depression status. The system will dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico over the next 12-24 hours. No issues from Fernand are expected in south Alabama and northwest Florida.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE… Squarely in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and Africa, you’ll find Tropical Storm Gabrielle. The system is moving northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph. Gabrielle is expected to move northwest and stay out at sea. No issues for the United States are expected because of Gabrielle. The system should completely dissipate in about a week over the far northern Atlantic Ocean.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA… The area of low pressure we’ve been tracking near Bermuda has passed the island commonwealth to the north at this point. There is a 50-60% chance that a tropical storm will form in this area in the days ahead. The system will not directly affect land in the next few days. No U.S. impacts from this, regardless of formal development.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR AFRICA MOVING WESTWARD… There is also a 50-60% chance that a tropical wave emerging from the African continent will develop into a tropical storm this weekend as it passes near or south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This will be a system we need to focus on more closely as we are in the peak of hurricane season. Any lower latitude systems like this warrant watching, as there is no way to know where they will ultimately end up. Nothing to worry about at all, but something to keep our eyes on. I’ll keep you posted.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

Have a great evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

10:35AM September 4, 2019

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE… Tropical Storm Gabrielle has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. This system will not be a threat to the United States or any land areas over the next 5-7 days. The system will likely dissipate in about a week over the open waters of the north Atlantic Ocean.

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!